After Nick Xenophon voted against the government’s stimulus package this afternoon, I’ve heard at least one journalist claim that, if the bill is blocked again tomorrow the government will have its first double dissolution trigger. Sadly for all of us election junkies, that isn’t strictly true, as three months must pass between the first time the Senate blocks a bill before a second blocking results in that bill becoming a trigger.
Antony Green has written another blog post laying out the early election possibilities. One interesting factor is the consequences of a double dissolution in the first half of 2009:
After a DD, Senate terms are backdated until the previous 1 July. So a DD before 30 June this year would see Senate terms backdated to 1 July 2008, when Senators currently took there seats. So a DD before 30 June this year would still require another Senate election by May 2011. Any DD held in the first half of this year would still guarantee an election in late 2010 or early 2011.
So, assuming that Kevin Rudd’s primary motivation for calling an early election is to avoid the worst consequences of the economic crisis in 2010, he’d want to wait until late 2009, which would allow a re-elected Rudd government to avoid facing the voters again until late 2012.
I think I can see compromise working its way into Mr Rudd’s legislation.
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