Today I’m announcing a new project, one I haven’t done before and was quite a bit of work.
I have prepared profiles of the 16 most populous councils in Victoria. I’m hoping this will be the first instalment and I can do some or all of the next 17, but we’ll have to see how much can get done over the next two months before the October elections.
The guides are more difficult to complete than in NSW because partisan affiliations are less clear, and there are no booths to map.
For each guide I have included a list of candidates, with their partisan affiliation outside of all-independent councils, a description of the wards of the council, and of the changes where the wards have been redrawn. I have also included short historical sections and tried my best to summarise which faction or group of councillors seems to be in control of a council by analysing how councillors have voted on mayoral ballots.
In some councils I have been able to include a table of results for each party group in the council, but only where I have felt confident that I have been able to identify all of the party members running. In many councils that wasn’t the case, so I didn’t publish incomplete figures. My thanks to Leo Puglisi and whoever has been working on publishing election results on Wikipedia for this.
I have not published any results maps for the previous council elections, but I have redistributed the results of the 2022 federal election to the new wards and have included a map showing how those votes break down by ward.
I haven’t paywalled any of these guides, but if you find this useful I’d appreciate your support via Patreon.
| Boroondara | Kingston | Mornington Peninsula |
| Brimbank | Knox | Whitehorse |
| Casey | Melton | Whittlesea |
| Greater Dandenong | Merri-bek | Wyndham |
| Greater Geelong | Monash | Yarra Ranges |
| Hume |
This map shows the councils which have been profiled in green. Councils which I would like to profile are in blue. You can click on a council to find the link to the profile, along with some other information.
@No Mondays I created the map but I shared it here. I usually make maps every week or two but I’m on holidays so I’m having a break.
@Nimalan. I believe Palestine will be a big issue in Fraser, despite Islam not being the main minority religion. Don’t forget not all Palestinians are Muslim, and the issue transcends ethnicity and religion. I am of an Ashkenazi background and I am very concerned about the genocide taking place.
That being said I can’t see the Greens winning Fraser. Cynically speaking some Greens have never crossed the Tullamarine Freeway, let alone the Maribyrnong. They are too busy pitching to people in MacNamara. The Greens are issues based as opposed to class based, and the ignoring of class isn’t going to cut it in Fraser. That being said Labor are hardly for the working class despite their rhetoric.
It will be interesting to see if the Victorian Socialists win Burndap ward in the Maribyrnong council. They believe that they have a real shot. They are campaigning heavily on Palestine, the cost of living, toxic waste, and the housing crisis. Single member wards make it hard though.
The housing crisis, NDIS, and cost of living will be the main issues across the board, in seats like Fraser.
In the Federal election I see Wills going Green because of Palestine and public housing. Samantha Ratnam is a big supporter of both. These issues will be huge in the Brunswick and Coburg areas.
Wills has also lost the western portion of Glenroy, as well as Brunswick West and Pascoe Vale South west of the freeway. These pockets are more ALP than Green. The Victorian Socialist vote will be strengthened in Maribyrnong federal electorate, as they polled extremely high in the western suburban (sic) pocket of Brunswick West (read: west of the freeway). I believe if you are west of the Tullamarine Freeway you live in the west. Overall the Labor vote will probably go up in Maribyrnong now.
I think Lambros Tapinos will win Brunswick West in the Merri-Bek council elections. He has a high profile, and traveling through the area I have not seen that many yard signs for any party, compared to Bulleke-Bek. In the most disenfranchised part of Brunswick West (west of the freeway) I have seen no yard signs, maybe because there are rows of medium density old school apartments and there is nowhere to put them. The same can be said for the part of Burndap ward north of Ballarat Road (where there are rows of old school apartments).
It’s not surprising that Labor decided to run Tapinos in Brunswick West, as it is the neglected sibling of the three Brunswicks. It’s the poorest, and least trendy suburb of the three. In parts of Brunswick West the Greens are seen as bougie. Labor are hoping that the cynicism towards the Greens will get their guy across the line.
Labor have all but conceded Bulleke-Bek. That’s why Tapinos is not running there, and he isn’t going to get over the line in Brunswick East. VS have a big shot of winning Bulleke Bek. There are VS yard signs right across the ward. They outnumber Labor, and the Greens. I work in Brunswick and I have seen the VS presence; it’s huge. I would say it’s even greater than in Burndap.
@Marh – Your comment on Reece and Campbell and the fact they both were associated with the major parties also has a number of similarities to a council in Sydney, Fairfield City.
– Reece is ex-Labor, Campbell is an ex-Liberal (she left in 2024). In Fairfield, the Mayor Frank Carbone is ex-Labor, and one of his closest confidantes is Dai Le, an ex-Liberal. They both are seen as closely linked, even launching a political party, Western Sydney Community (formerly Dai Le & Frank Carbone Network).
– Both councils have a ex-Labor, male mayor, with a close female, ex-Liberal ally.
– And for some trivia, there is also a suburb in Melbourne (not in the City of Melbourne LGA) called Fairfield.
@No Mondays I don’t think VS will win a single member district ever.
@ No Mondays
There is quite a lot of commentary in the Wills thread and even the Merri-bek council thread on the impact of the Palestinian conflict on those areas. I am of the opinion that Peter Khalil is in great danger in Wills. The Redistribution has not helped him as the areas moved out like Oak Park and Western Parts of Glenroy tend to be the most centrist parts of the electorate along with Pascoe Vale. Peter Khalil is also quite Hawkish on Foreign policy and pro-American so this does not play well in Wills. I think Peter Khalil is courting the Nepalese community in Glenroy to save him (that is one the newest ethnic communities in Australia). Interestingly the Victorian Socialists do well in working class ethnic areas that are not gentrified they did very well in suburbs like Meadow Heights, Broadmeadows, Roxburgh Park, Deer Park, Laverton, St Albans etc. In the Mulgrave by-election they did well around Springvale.
Also @ No Mondays it is Nether portal not myself that has been creating the great maps and tables. Laine also created one. If there is any other maps/demographic data you are interested in let me know and it may aleady be created.
@Nimalan. Great observations in regards to Khalil. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s courting the Nepalese vote, but I haven’t heard anything about it per se. He’s definitely in danger, especially with the redistribution, and his hawkish foreign policy stance.
VS also polled very high in Footscray, the northwest of Brunswick, and the northwest of Brunswick West. That in part is due to the amount of VS people who reside in those areas. In my previous street there were 3 VS houses with yard signs.
I would love to see maps of LGBTQI populations. This will be possible after the next census, except for the T community unfortunately, given that Labor caved in.
@Nether Portal. VS already have Jorge as a councilor, however I don’t think he will win Burndap. Single member wards make it hard. There are plenty of yard signs in the ward, save for the area around the big clothing sale warehouse around Mephan Street.
Traveling through Brunswick, I do think they have a shot in Bulleke-Bek, going by yard signs. It will be between them and the Greens.
I understand why they run in councils as they have somewhat of a chance. I certainly like living in an area that has a Socialist councilor, as in my mind municipalities are about more than the 3 R’s.
I think VS delude themselves when they run in by-elections like Dunkley, Mulgrave, and Warrandyte. Seriously, are they really going to get votes in a bougie area like Warrandyte? What a waste of resources. Their justification is that they are getting people talking about leftist politics. You don’t need to run in elections to do that.
Handing out leaflets about an issue gets people talking about leftist politics. Holding up protest signs at protests, on the sidewalk gets engagement from passers by, and it can lead to political conversations. Some have even scanned a QR code to get more information. Many onlookers have no idea what we may be protesting about, but signs and leaflets are very effective. In short you don’t need to run in by-elections that you have no hope of winning.
@Nether Portal. Your maps are great. I collect maps. I have been doing so since I was a kid. Keep it up.
@ No Mondays
The reason he is courting the Nepalese vote is they are rapidly growing around Glenroy. There is no real geopolitical issue that impacts them they are largely middle class and mainly came as international students but do not have the wealth accumulation yet to be able to vote Liberal. There is a strong Italian community in Pascoe Vale/Oak Park. However, the Italian community long Sydney Road is declining as it if generally first generation especially around Fawkner, Hadfield while the Muslim community is growing there which is bad for Peter Khalil’s chances.
https://jumpshare.com/v/9hAbxdnagpSdByqINsSw
I have also included Nether Portal’s Language by electorate map. You can find his Language by LGA table in this thread just above.
Also agree they did well in Footscary, Brunswick but i mentioned the poorer suburbs because the Greens cant make inroads there but VS can.