NT election guide unlocked

By
Ben Raue
-
12

Today is two months out from the Northern Territory election on August 24, so I thought it was about time to release the election guide for everyone to read.

You can find the guide here. There’s profiles for all 25 electorates, with results tables and maps, candidate lists (a constant work in progress) and a comments section to discuss each seat.

If you find this guide useful, please sign up to support the Tally Room for $5 or more per month to gain access to my election guides for Queensland, ACT, NSW local councils, Western Australia and a partial guide to the federal election, with more on the way.

You can use this map to find an electorate of interest:

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12 COMMENTS

  2. A poll has just come out with Labor taking a narrow lead which is absolutely astonishing given the last 6-12 months Labor about 10 points behind.

  3. yep, posted in another thread but ill put it here too:

    There’s a UComms poll of Darwin and Palmerston residents in the NT News today, commissioned by Environment Centre NT, that has Labor ahead, poorly reported on and very light on details though with no 2PP.

    The info it does give:

    n = 1,100

    With undecided:

    ALP 29.5%
    CLP 29.1%
    Minor parties/independents 24.3%
    Undecided 17.1%

    Forced choice:

    ALP 35.7%
    CLP 35.7%

    There is no indication for minor party/independent support with a forced choice, but it does say that of those voters 57.5% would preference the ALP, and that would give them government. Bit of quick math based on the numbers given would suggest that there’s an additional 4.3% added to the minor/ind vote with a forced choice, and based on that the 2PP would be 52/48 Labor’s way.

    That said, I’d both like to see the full methodology, and wouldn’t put too much faith in a poll that has minors and independents that high when there’s a small chance a minor party or an independent runs in every seat.

  4. @Oguh that’s only Darwin and Palmerston though. Plus as you said there’s no TPP, it has few details, etc, plus the NT News is the most left-leaning newspaper in the Territory (I can’t think of a single time where they’ve endorsed the Coalition, they’ve always endorsed Labor and give a lame excuse for why, saying the Coalition “doesn’t care about Territorians or Aboriginal issues”; yet even the Newcastle Herald endorsed the Coalition at least once before, obviously in 2011).

    I still think the CLP will win a majority. Labor’s been in for too long and they’ve done little to help Territorians struggling with the cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, the health and mental health crisis and crime. Natasha Fyles was a joke, and Eva Lawler’s a joke too.

    Territorians, it’s time for change.

  5. Greater Darwin was 58.3% for Labor in 2020 NT election so even that would still be a 6.3% swing to the Libs. On a uniform swing would see Port Darwin and Fong Lim fall.

  6. @NP Yep very thin on details and the reporting is not done well, among the myriad of other issues, to say the least.

  7. The CLP won in 2012 without even having a plurality in Darwin let alone a majority there (which Labor had because Clare Martin and Paul Henderson built up Labor’s base in Darwin, especially in the Northern Suburbs of Darwin, through pork barrelling).

    NT Labor focuses too much on Darwinians instead of all Territorians, so no wonder in 2012 they lost most of their remote seats. Aboriginal people in particular felt left out.

    As for the independent/minor party vote, assuming that excludes the Greens, I’d say it’s because these days Territory Labor is seen as the party of Darwin and the CLP is seen as the party of Palmerston, Alice Springs, Katherine and the rural areas near them. In Aboriginal communities many local elders are running as independents and doing quite well. Yingiya Mark Guyula won the seat of Nhulunbuy from Labor as an independent in 2016 even though Labor had a historic landslide elsewhere, and in 2020 when it became Mulka he retained the seat. And in 2020, an independent came close to winning Arnhem from Labor too.

  8. @Oguh exactly.

    @Drake correct, and the swing will be bigger in Alice Springs and Katherine and probably in remote communities too. I think Katherine will have the biggest swing in the state; I wouldn’t be surprised if the CLP get 70% TPP there even though it was 52% in 2020 (a factor of a two-term incumbent popular Labor government of Michael Gunner after Labor shockingly very very narrowly won the very safe seat in 2016 from Deputy Chief Minister Willem Westra van Holthe); like how Newcastle was won by the Liberals in the Coalition’s 2011 landslide in NSW but in 2015 when Labor recovered many seats (including all the Newcastle seats they lost, note that they already regained Charlestown and Newcastle at by-elections over

  9. @Oguh exactly.

    @Drake correct, and the swing will be bigger in Alice Springs and Katherine and probably in remote communities too. I think Katherine will have the biggest swing in the state; I wouldn’t be surprised if the CLP get 70% TPP there even though it was 52% in 2020 (a factor of a two-term incumbent popular Labor government of Michael Gunner after Labor shockingly very very narrowly won the very safe seat in 2016 from Deputy Chief Minister Willem Westra van Holthe); like how Newcastle was won by the Liberals in the Coalition’s 2011 landslide in NSW but in 2015 when Labor recovered many seats (including all the Newcastle seats they lost, note that they already regained Charlestown and Newcastle at by-elections) the Labor TPP in Newcastle itself was only 57% (now it’s a lot bigger).

  11. CLP have been tested at multiple byelections in the last term including bush, rural and Darwin seats. There is nothing to indicate they can win in August.

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