8:11pm – I haven’t bothered to pay too much attention, but with most booths reported now the Nationals primary is down to just under 65%. An easy win, so I won’t be updating any further.
6:40pm – With ten booths reporting, the Nationals are on 71% of the primary vote, with the Shooters second on just under 15%. Easy win for the Nationals.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed for the Northern Tablelands state by-election in New South Wales. It seems likely that the Nationals will retain this seat with ease. If you’d like to read up on the by-election, you can check out my guide.
If there was OPV at federal level Labor would be in deep deep trouble.
@ Redistributed what about Wakehurst which is currently independent held. It is the most middle class part of the Northern Beaches. Interestingly, Labor won it during the Wranslide could Michael Regan cause Labor to follow the same trend as Northern Tablelands.
Nimalan
The demographics have changed so much in that area. Back in the 70s and 80s when Labor held it Curl Curl was largely small fibro houses – totally unrecognisable now with big houses craning for ocean views. The housing commission areas have been largely diluted as well. Labors vote will just sink away. Wakehurst now also goes into Frenchs Forest which has always been dependable non labor territory.
@ Redistributed Great point
I expect the same to occur around Dee Why, which used to be the most Labor friendly part of the Northern Beaches.
@Redistributed about your point about rural NSW and Victoria: not only has Labor always done poorly in northern Victoria, but they’ve also always done poorly (perhaps even worse) on the NSW Mid North Coast (especially around Port Macquarie and Kempsey despite Kempsey having a large Aboriginal population and being relatively poor and full of crime, though it’s decreasing now), as well as in and around Tamworth. So I would say northern NSW is one of Labor’s worst regions consistently throughout history, since they’ve never been able to win a single-member federal or state seat that includes Port Macquarie or Tamworth and the only time they won a seat that includes Coffs Harbour was in 1961 when Labor narrowly won Cowper from Nationals leader Sir Earle Page (who died without even knowing he lost; Page was from Grafton and that’s why Page is called that and why it includes Lismore and Grafton).
About Armidale booths in 2022, federal elections have FPV not OPV so it’s different, plus the NSW Nationals are more moderate than their federal counterparts (same goes for the NSW Liberals, obviously):
Also, @Nimalan, Labor won seats like Cronulla and Manly during the Wranslide, affluent or upper-middle-class beachside blue-ribbon Sydney seats they would NEVER win. But at the same time, when Neville Wran retired, Labor somehow managed to lose his seat of Bass Hill to the Liberal candidate Michael Owen in 1986 (the seat doesn’t exist anymore but Bass Hill (the suburb the seat was named after) is in the Canterbury-Bankstown LGA near Yagoona, so working-class, safe Labor territory). Somehow Labor regained it despite a landslide loss in 1988 (Nick Greiner’s Coalition defeated Barrie Unsworth’s Labor).
Nether Portal,
What role did you play in the Bass Hill by-election?
By 1986 NSW Labor were seriously on the nose. There was an odour of corruption and they – especially Laurie Brereton were seen as arrogant. Hence the huge swings in Bass Hill and Rockdale. Barrie Unsworth was parachuted in and almost came unstuck – he held on by 54 votes. Both were classic by election protest votes. After that it was a downhill run to the 1988 Greiner landslide.
Redistributed,
Were you in Bass Hill on polling day?
@ Nether Portal
Sorry i missed your comment about Manly and Cronulla. Agree Labor will never those seats again. In Manly the areas such as Seaforth, Clontarf and Fairlight are too affluent for Labor to win. Finally, Cronulla was more outer suburban back then we need to remember even the Federal seat of Cook was held by Labor during the Whitlam era and Labor nearly won it in 1983. It is much older and wealthier than in the 1980s.
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