3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.
If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.
I will also be on ABC Radio Drive in regional NSW at 3:20pm and ABC Radio Sydney Drive at 3:50pm, and you’ll be able to catch me on Afternoon Briefing on ABC News 24 after 4pm.
39 out of 46 seats were changed, leaving seven unchanged. These seven were Calare, Dobell, Farrer, Lyne, Reid, Richmond, Robertson.
2:53pm – The results of the last election was 77 Labor, 58 Coalition, 16 Crossbench.
Labor has gained Bullwinkel and Menzies, and lost Higgins and Bennelong.
The Coalition has lost Menzies and gained Bennelong.
The Crossbench has lost North Sydney.
So the new numbers (not including Labor’s gain of Aston) are 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and 15 Crossbench.
For Labor to lose their majority they need to lose two seats on a uniform swing of 0.4%, down from 0.9% on the old boundaries.
For the Coalition to gain a majority they need 18 seats. That required a uniform swing of 6.3% (assuming only gains from Labor) previously, and now that is 6.0%.
If you include potential crossbench gains, the Coalition needed a uniform 2CP swing of 4.0% prior to the redistribution, and now requires 3.9%.
There were 8 crossbench seats held on margins of 4.2% or less prior to the redistribution. The abolition of North Sydney and the increased safety of Wentworth lowers that number to six.
2:24pm – And here is the new pendulum.
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Gilmore (NSW) | ALP 0.2% | Deakin (VIC) | LIB 0.02% |
| Menzies (VIC) | ALP 0.4% | Bennelong (NSW) | LIB 0.1% |
| Lyons (TAS) | ALP 0.9% | Sturt (SA) | LIB 0.5% |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | Moore (WA) | LIB 0.9% |
| Robertson (NSW) | ALP 2.3% | Canning (WA) | LIB 1.1% |
| Paterson (NSW) | ALP 2.6% | Casey (VIC) | LIB 1.4% |
| Tangney (WA) | ALP 3.0% | Bass (TAS) | LIB 1.4% |
| Boothby (SA) | ALP 3.3% | Dickson (QLD) | LNP 1.7% |
| Bullwinkel (WA) | ALP 3.3% | Cowper (NSW) | NAT 2.4% vs IND |
| Chisholm (VIC) | ALP 3.3% | Bradfield (NSW) | LIB 2.5% vs IND |
| McEwen (VIC) | ALP 3.4% | Nicholls (VIC) | NAT 2.5% vs IND |
| Parramatta (NSW) | ALP 3.7% | Aston (VIC) | LIB 2.6% |
| Wills (VIC) | ALP 4.6% vs GRN | Banks (NSW) | LIB 2.6% |
| Hunter (NSW) | ALP 4.8% | Monash (VIC) | LIB 2.9% |
| Reid (NSW) | ALP 5.2% | Longman (QLD) | LNP 3.1% |
| Blair (QLD) | ALP 5.2% | Bonner (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Bruce (VIC) | ALP 5.3% | Wannon (VIC) | LIB 3.4% vs IND |
| Werriwa (NSW) | ALP 5.3% | Leichhardt (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Shortland (NSW) | ALP 6.0% | Hughes (NSW) | LIB 3.5% |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | ALP 6.1% | Flynn (QLD) | LNP 3.8% |
| Macquarie (NSW) | ALP 6.3% | Forrest (WA) | LIB 4.2% |
| Dobell (NSW) | ALP 6.5% | Forde (QLD) | LNP 4.2% |
| Dunkley (VIC) | ALP 6.8% | Petrie (QLD) | LNP 4.4% |
| Holt (VIC) | ALP 7.1% | Durack (WA) | LIB 4.7% |
| Hawke (VIC) | ALP 7.6% | Bowman (QLD) | LNP 5.5% |
| Corangamite (VIC) | ALP 7.8% | Lindsay (NSW) | LIB 6.1% |
| Cooper (VIC) | ALP 7.8% vs GRN | Flinders (VIC) | LIB 6.2% |
| Greenway (NSW) | ALP 8.0% | Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 6.6% |
| Richmond (NSW) | ALP 8.2% | O’Connor (WA) | LIB 6.7% |
| Whitlam (NSW) | ALP 8.3% | Hume (NSW) | LIB 6.9% |
| Pearce (WA) | ALP 8.8% | Groom (QLD) | LNP 6.9% vs IND |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | ALP 8.9% | Berowra (NSW) | LIB 7.5% |
| Rankin (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | Braddon (TAS) | LIB 8.0% |
| Moreton (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | La Trobe (VIC) | LIB 8.4% |
| Solomon (NT) | ALP 9.4% | Fisher (QLD) | LNP 8.7% |
| Swan (WA) | ALP 9.4% | Fairfax (QLD) | LNP 9.0% |
| Isaacs (VIC) | ALP 9.5% | McPherson (QLD) | LNP 9.3% |
| Macarthur (NSW) | ALP 9.8% | Calare (NSW) | NAT 9.7% vs IND |
| Cowan (WA) | ALP 9.9% | Riverina (NSW) | NAT 9.7% |
| Gorton (VIC) | ALP 10.0% | Grey (SA) | LIB 10.1% |
| Hasluck (WA) | ALP 10.1% | Hinkler (QLD) | LNP 10.1% |
| McMahon (NSW) | ALP 10.5% | Dawson (QLD) | LNP 10.4% |
| Lilley (QLD) | ALP 10.5% | Mitchell (NSW) | LIB 10.5% |
| Makin (SA) | ALP 10.8% | Fadden (QLD) | LNP 10.6% |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Page (NSW) | NAT 10.7% |
| Hotham (VIC) | ALP 11.6% | Wright (QLD) | LNP 10.9% |
| Oxley (QLD) | ALP 11.6% | Moncrieff (QLD) | LNP 11.2% |
| Adelaide (SA) | ALP 11.9% | Wide Bay (QLD) | LNP 11.3% |
| Bendigo (VIC) | ALP 12.0% | Cook (NSW) | LIB 11.7% |
| Barton (NSW) | ALP 12.0% | Herbert (QLD) | LNP 11.8% |
| Macnamara (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Lyne (NSW) | NAT 13.8% |
| Canberra (ACT) | ALP 12.2% vs GRN | New England (NSW) | NAT 15.2% |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Farrer (NSW) | LIB 16.4% |
| Calwell (VIC) | ALP 12.4% | Barker (SA) | LIB 16.6% |
| Corio (VIC) | ALP 12.5% | Parkes (NSW) | NAT 18.1% |
| Lalor (VIC) | ALP 12.8% | Mallee (VIC) | NAT 19% |
| Spence (SA) | ALP 12.9% | Gippsland (VIC) | NAT 20.6% |
| Bean (ACT) | ALP 12.9% | Maranoa (QLD) | LNP 22.1% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Blaxland (NSW) | ALP 13.1% | ||
| Burt (WA) | ALP 13.3% | ||
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | ALP 13.3% | Curtin (WA) | IND 1.3% vs LIB |
| Chifley (NSW) | ALP 13.6% | Fowler (NSW) | IND 1.4% vs ALP |
| Franklin (TAS) | ALP 13.7% | Ryan (QLD) | GRN 2.6% vs LNP |
| Perth (WA) | ALP 14.4% | Mackellar (NSW) | IND 3.3% vs LIB |
| Cunningham (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Kooyong (VIC) | IND 3.5% vs LIB |
| Watson (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Brisbane (QLD) | GRN 3.7% vs LNP |
| Scullin (VIC) | ALP 15.3% | Goldstein (VIC) | IND 3.9% vs LIB |
| Fenner (ACT) | ALP 15.7% | Melbourne (VIC) | GRN 6.9% vs ALP |
| Kingston (SA) | ALP 16.4% | Indi (VIC) | IND 8.9% vs LIB |
| Sydney (NSW) | ALP 16.5% vs GRN | Wentworth (NSW) | IND 9.0% vs LIB |
| Fraser (VIC) | ALP 16.6% | Warringah (NSW) | IND 9.4% vs LIB |
| Fremantle (WA) | ALP 16.7% | Griffith (QLD) | GRN 10.5% vs LNP |
| Brand (WA) | ALP 17.1% | Mayo (SA) | CA 12.3% vs LIB |
| Grayndler (NSW) | ALP 17.4% vs GRN | Kennedy (QLD) | KAP 13.1% vs LNP |
| Newcastle (NSW) | ALP 17.9% | Clark (TAS) | IND 20.8% vs ALP |
2:17pm – In terms of the degree of change, 46% of Blaxland consists of new voters, with over 30% of voters in Bennelong, Watson and McMahon. Over a quarter of voters are new to Warringah, Grayndler, Parramatta and Bradfield.
Outside Sydney, Riverina is most changed with almost a quarter of voters being new. Hume is also 23% new.
2:13pm – Changes were minor in northern NSW. Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne are either unchanged, or very close to it. New England has expanded slightly in two directions but has maintained its identity.
The Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson have also been left alone, with very minor changes to Shortland and Newcastle.
Paterson has contracted on its western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter, cutting Meryl Swanson’s margin from 3.3% to 2.6% and increasing Labor’s margin in Hunter from 4.0% to 4.8%.
Changes were much more dramatic in the south-east of the state. Cunningham has been largely left alone. Whitlam has taken in the remainder of the Wingecarribee Shire from Hume, but it already covered most of the population centres in that council area.
Eden-Monaro has expanded north to take in Goulburn from Hume, losing Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass to the west of the Great Dividing Range and the ACT.
Calare has been left alone and Parkes has been slightly changed, but Riverina has moved a great deal east, expanding to meet the ACT and take in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Yass and Upper Lachlan. Farrer has been untouched.
2:06pm – Okay, an hour after the proposal was published, I now have the space to actually look at the maps.
On the north shore, Mackellar has expanded south into Warringah, with Warringah then compensating by moving west into North Sydney.
The committee has taken the Liberal Party’s approach of then dividing up the remainder of North Sydney into two parts between the Labor seat of Bennelong and the Liberal seat of Bradfield. This is good news for Paul Fletcher.
Bennelong has then shifted east, causing the seat to flip from 1.0% ALP to 0.1% Liberal, although margins always have uncertainty. Another analyst could easily see this seat as remaining in Labor hands. Parramatta has also shifted north, although it has spread out both to the north-east and north-west.
In the inner city, Wentworth has lost part of Clovelly to Kingsford Smith and gained Potts Point and Darlinghurst. These areas look small on a map but they are very densely populated and very bad for the Liberal Party so it’s a good sign for Spender.
Plibersek has picked up the Balmain peninsula, but there is no land connection to the main part of the seat. Grayndler has shifted south-west, picking up the remainder of Marrickville (including Albanese’s home area).
I was surprised to see that Kingsford-Smith has expanded past the airport to take in the Botany Bay shore including Brighton-le-Sands and Monterey. Cook has contracted to be more Shire-based, but still has a beach-head in Sans Souci.
Watson has shifted substantially to the west, taking in Bankstown from Blaxland, while Blaxland has expanded north-west to take in parts of Parramatta and McMahon.
Fowler has been left mostly intact, gaining a small area from McMahon. McMahon has expanded further into the Blacktown council area. Greenway has gained areas from the northern end of Mitchell while Chifley and Lindsay are largely intact.
Werriwa has contracted, losing its western and southern ends, while Macarthur has become even more Campbelltown-based, losing the fast-growing areas around Leppington and Oran Park.
Hume is now firmly a Macarthur-area seat, based entirely within the Wollondilly and Camden LGAs with a few sparsely-populated parts of Liverpool and Penrith council areas. It is no longer the vast and disconnected seat that included Goulburn and Camden while skipping over the Southern Highlands.
It’s also worth mentioning Hughes, which was traditionally split between the Sutherland shire and Liverpool. But it has instead spilled over the Georges River into Campbelltown, taking in Ingleburn, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. This has really hit the Liberal margin.
1:50pm – And here is my interactive map.
1:43pm – Once we factor in the new area of Fowler taken in from McMahon, Dai Le’s margin is cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
1:37pm – Okay I have fixed the figures for Blaxland, McMahon and Parramatta, will need a few more minutes to calculate a new margin for Fowler using the method used for Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth.
Labor margin in Parramatta cut by 0.9%. Bowen’s margin is only up 1%, not 3%. Jason Clare’s margin in Blaxland cut by 1.9%.
1:30pm – Okay small problem with “McMahon” not matching “Mcmahon”. Will change the estimates for Fowler, McMahon, Blaxland and Parramatta. Will take a minute to update my tables.
1:26pm – Hmm potential problem with McMahon, bear with me a minute.
1:23pm – So overall one independent seat has been abolished, and one neighbouring Labor seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal (by the slimmest of margins). The total seat count is 25 Labor, 10 Liberal, 7 Nationals and 4 independents (3 teals and Dai Le).
Interesting takeaways:
- Bennelong flips from 1.0% Labor seat to 0.1% Liberal seat.
- Allegra Spender’s margin in Wentworth increases from 4.2% to 9.0%, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar is up from 2.5% to 3.3%, and Zali Steggall’s margin decreases from 11.0% to 9.4%.
- Paul Fletcher’s margin in Bradfield has been cut from 4.2% to 2.5% against the teal independents. Kylea Tink’s margin in North Sydney was 2.9%.
- Dai Le’s margin has been cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
- Chris Bowen’s margin in McMahon increased from 9.5% to 10.5%.
- Little change in Labor’s margin against the Greens in Grayndler (up 0.3%) and Sydney (down 0.2%)
- Liberal margin in Hughes halved from 7.0% to 3.5%.
- Nationals margin in Riverina cut from 14.8% to 9.7%.
- Labor margins in Barton and Greenway cut by 3.5% each.
- Parramatta Labor margin cut from 4.6% to 3.7%.
1:15pm – Here are the margins.
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Banks | LIB 3.2% | LIB 2.6% |
| Barton | ALP 15.5% | ALP 12% |
| Bennelong | ALP 1.0% | LIB 0.1% |
| Berowra | LIB 9.8% | LIB 7.5% |
| Blaxland | ALP 14.9% | ALP 13.1% |
| Bradfield | LIB vs IND 4.2% | LIB vs IND 2.5% |
| Calare | NAT vs IND 9.7% | NAT vs IND 9.7% |
| Chifley | ALP 13.5% | ALP 13.6% |
| Cook | LIB 12.4% | LIB 11.7% |
| Cowper | NAT vs IND 2.3% | NAT vs IND 2.4% |
| Cunningham | ALP 14.7% | ALP 15.1% |
| Dobell | ALP 6.5% | ALP 6.5% |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP 8.2% | ALP 6.1% |
| Farrer | LIB 16.4% | LIB 16.4% |
| Fowler | IND vs ALP 1.6% | IND vs ALP 1.4% |
| Gilmore | ALP 0.2% | ALP 0.2% |
| Grayndler | ALP vs GRN 17.1% | ALP vs GRN 17.4% |
| Greenway | ALP 11.5% | ALP 8.0% |
| Hughes | LIB 7.0% | LIB 3.5% |
| Hume | LIB 7.7% | LIB 6.9% |
| Hunter | ALP 4.0% | ALP 4.8% |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP 14.5% | ALP 13.3% |
| Lindsay | LIB 6.3% | LIB 6.1% |
| Lyne | NAT 13.8% | NAT 13.8% |
| Macarthur | ALP 8.5% | ALP 9.8% |
| Mackellar | IND vs LIB 2.5% | IND vs LIB 3.3% |
| Macquarie | ALP 7.8% | ALP 6.3% |
| McMahon | ALP 9.5% | ALP 10.5% |
| Mitchell | LIB 10.7% | LIB 10.5% |
| New England | NAT 16.4% | NAT 15.2% |
| Newcastle | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.9% |
| North Sydney (Abolished) | IND vs LIB 2.9% | |
| Page | NAT 10.7% | NAT 10.7% |
| Parkes | NAT 17.8% | NAT 18.1% |
| Parramatta | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.7% |
| Paterson | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.6% |
| Reid | ALP 5.2% | ALP 5.2% |
| Richmond | ALP 8.2% | ALP 8.2% |
| Riverina | NAT 14.8% | NAT 9.7% |
| Robertson | ALP 2.3% | ALP 2.3% |
| Shortland | ALP 5.8% | ALP 6.0% |
| Sydney | ALP vs GRN 16.7% | ALP vs GRN 16.5% |
| Warringah | IND vs LIB 11.0% | IND vs LIB 9.4% |
| Watson | ALP 15.1% | ALP 15.1% |
| Wentworth | IND vs LIB 4.2% | IND vs LIB 9.0% |
| Werriwa | ALP 5.8% | ALP 5.3% |
| Whitlam | ALP 10.1% | ALP 8.3% |
12:55pm – And here is my estimates of primary vote and 2PP by seat. I’ll be back with the margin estimates in a minute.
I’ll come back to analyse in a bit but at first glance I notice that the 2PP in Bennelong is 50.1% to the Liberal Party.
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LNP 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Banks | 47.4 | 52.6 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Barton | 62.0 | 38.0 | 48.0 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Bennelong | 49.9 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 40.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Berowra | 42.5 | 57.5 | 23.9 | 47.2 | 14.9 | 4.6 |
| Blaxland | 63.1 | 36.9 | 51.7 | 27.1 | 6.7 | 1.0 |
| Bradfield | 43.8 | 56.2 | 17.7 | 43.7 | 8.6 | 25.3 |
| Calare | 34.5 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| Chifley | 63.6 | 36.4 | 53.0 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Cook | 38.3 | 61.7 | 24.0 | 53.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 |
| Cowper | 40.5 | 59.5 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 5.9 | 26.2 |
| Cunningham | 65.1 | 34.9 | 41.2 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 0.0 |
| Dobell | 56.5 | 43.5 | 42.9 | 33.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Eden-Monaro | 56.1 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Farrer | 33.6 | 66.4 | 19.0 | 52.3 | 9.1 | 3.2 |
| Fowler | 55.9 | 44.1 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.3 |
| Gilmore | 50.2 | 49.8 | 35.9 | 42.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 |
| Grayndler | 76.7 | 23.3 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 1.5 |
| Greenway | 58.0 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Hughes | 46.5 | 53.5 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| Hume | 43.1 | 56.9 | 24.2 | 42.5 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
| Hunter | 54.8 | 45.2 | 39.4 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.3 | 36.7 | 47.4 | 29.6 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
| Lindsay | 43.9 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Lyne | 36.2 | 63.8 | 21.5 | 43.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Macarthur | 59.8 | 40.2 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Mackellar | 42.1 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 6.3 | 38.5 |
| Macquarie | 56.3 | 43.7 | 41.8 | 35.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Mcmahon | 60.5 | 39.5 | 48.5 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell | 39.5 | 60.5 | 25.6 | 52.4 | 12.0 | 0.1 |
| New England | 34.8 | 65.2 | 19.9 | 50.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Newcastle | 67.9 | 32.1 | 44.1 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Page | 39.3 | 60.7 | 18.6 | 45.4 | 8.4 | 13.5 |
| Parkes | 31.9 | 68.1 | 19.5 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Parramatta | 53.7 | 46.3 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
| Paterson | 52.6 | 47.4 | 40.1 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Reid | 55.2 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 37.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 58.2 | 41.8 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 5.6 |
| Riverina | 40.3 | 59.7 | 24.9 | 43.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Robertson | 52.3 | 47.7 | 37.7 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Shortland | 56.0 | 44.0 | 40.2 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 |
| Sydney | 75.7 | 24.3 | 51.0 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
| Warringah | 49.3 | 50.7 | 12.0 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 39.8 |
| Watson | 65.1 | 34.9 | 53.9 | 26.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| Wentworth | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.7 | 37.5 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Werriwa | 55.3 | 44.7 | 39.1 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| Whitlam | 58.3 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
12:47pm – The video also indicates that Hume shifts north to take in more of Sydney and go no further than Wollondilly Shire. Eden-Monaro would take in Goulburn.
12:44pm – The AEC’s proposal is still not up, but they have published a video which shows the maps of a few seats. You can see that Bennelong has been moved into North Sydney, wile Bradfield only shifts slightly. This is bad for Labor in Bennelong and also breaks up Kylea Tink’s territory more seriously than if Bradfield moved south to absorb the whole area.
12:04pm – The gazette has been published, and the seat of North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished. 12.8% of all voters in NSW have been moved into a different seat. This compares to 8.3% in Victoria and 14.6% in WA. We have no further details.
12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for New South Wales this afternoon. I expect they will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.
My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, maps showing the old and new boundaries, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and the pendulum showing the new margins.
@John labor will be going into minority regardless they cannot lose more then 2 net seats and I can guarantee they will lose at least 2 in wa plus Higgins through abolition. Labors majority is gone libs should preference labor above greens due to greens stance on Israel and antisemitism
Kylea Tink is rallying her supporters to submit objections, even going so far as to run workshops on how to do so. I’m curious to see how many objections to the abolition of North Sydney there will be. Could it be sufficient for the committee to reverse their decision, or at least revise the proposed three-way split of the Lower North Shore?
@Nicholas
Makes sense. Abolishing a wealthy and politically engaged division is always going to result in objections.
Unlike Higgins which is probably saveable, the enrolment numbers really work against keeping North Sydney unless the committee is willing to do a full redraft of all of Greater Northern Sydney (which I hope they do because they’ve made an absolute mess around Blacktown and Epping).
At this stage, probabbly the best outcome for Team Tink would be to get Lane Cove shifted into Bradfield. That’d keep the majority of current North Sydney electors in the one division. And it’d be far neater that way. No need to carve up Chatswood/St Leonards/Eastwood/Epping/Wahroonga if they just keep the Lane Cove River boundary.
One thing that the committee could do for Team Tink is adopt the Libs’ original submission and change Warringah’s name to North Sydney and argue that the North Sydney CBD , then Tink can contest that seat and Zali moves to the senate. The NSW redistribution is arguably worse than the VIC one since it’s a lot harder to fix. Though the VIC has more ridiculous components and weird boundaries, they are mostly pretty easy to fix while keeping the same general ideas which themselves are pretty good. On the other hand in NSW there have been some decisions like keeping Fowler and Reid intact that result in a mess everywhere else that can’t be fixed without a radical redraw.
@nicholas north Sydney is gone unlike Higgins there’s really not much they can do different considering the north shore is border by the harbour whoch acrs as a solid boundary and with mackellar and warringah needing to take in 25% of a quota and NS being 14% under quota there’s not much options.
@dan m stragll would never accept that she’d win in a 3 way contest vs tonk and libs and would likely lose if she tried for the Senate. Tink is just upset her seat is being cut and she’s got no real option to run anywhere else. She can’t beat stragll and boele has already some stnading in bradfield and will probably win even though I think Paul Fletcher is a decent person and shouldn’t be booted. And she won’t win bennelong as it’s not friendly enough to a teal and the libs and gotten favourable boundaries and a decrnt candidate in Scott yung
Yeah, if they at unite Willoughby and Lane Cove LGAs, that’d make things a lot better for Tink. The proposed three-way split of the Lower North Shore is the worst-case scenario for her.
North Sydney can be saved if Mackellar moves west or Ryde LGA is split, but I doubt there’s much appetite for either of those solutions.
@Angas
I checked the comment records here and I remember now that you planned for a Banks abolition. Can you give me a rough diagram on how you did that?
Sorry – cry me a river.
https://www.kyleatink.com.au/savenorthsydney?utm_campaign=teamtink_cta_zoom&utm_medium=email&utm_source=northsydneysindy
@High Street what’s arguably worse is that her website claims to be translated into Chinese (Simplified and Traditional), Japanese, Korean and Spanish yet looking at the Spanish translation it uses the English word Sydney instead of the Spanish exonym, Sídney. Though I learnt French at school not Spanish so my grasp of French is better than it is of Spanish but still.
I agree with the committee’s decision to abolish North Sydney, but Tink and the electors of North Sydney are entitled to be doing what they are doing. No doubt Zimmerman would have reacted similarly had the Teal movement never arisen.
I think abolishing North Sydney is the best outcome as far as divisions and community goes. It’s unfortunate that it means an independent member loses out, but the politics, and the party (or lack thereof) of the local member, are irrelevant.
But Kyliea Tink has every right to object, and to encourage others to do the same. It would, however be helpful if they could at least propose an alternative solution.
I don’t think the arguments she is presenting on that page are particularly compelling. Of course she’s entitled to it but I don’t think she’s particularly effective.
I’m thinking of submitting an objection regarding the southern boundary of Mitchell. I always hated that boundary through North Rocks and they haven’t adjusted it. I’ll argue they should transfer the rest of North Rocks to Parramatta and then transfer Glenhaven to Mitchell to make up the numbers.
I know there’s plenty of other things to object to, but my time and energy is limited.
Do we expect more or less than 508 objections to the NSW draft? Feels like the proposed abolition of Higgins was very unpopular and I feel the abolition will be less unpopular.
There’s room for improvement in NSW but overall I think it looks better than Vic. But I’m not quite as familiar with Sydney as I am with Melbourne.