3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.
If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.
I will also be on ABC Radio Drive in regional NSW at 3:20pm and ABC Radio Sydney Drive at 3:50pm, and you’ll be able to catch me on Afternoon Briefing on ABC News 24 after 4pm.
39 out of 46 seats were changed, leaving seven unchanged. These seven were Calare, Dobell, Farrer, Lyne, Reid, Richmond, Robertson.
2:53pm – The results of the last election was 77 Labor, 58 Coalition, 16 Crossbench.
Labor has gained Bullwinkel and Menzies, and lost Higgins and Bennelong.
The Coalition has lost Menzies and gained Bennelong.
The Crossbench has lost North Sydney.
So the new numbers (not including Labor’s gain of Aston) are 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and 15 Crossbench.
For Labor to lose their majority they need to lose two seats on a uniform swing of 0.4%, down from 0.9% on the old boundaries.
For the Coalition to gain a majority they need 18 seats. That required a uniform swing of 6.3% (assuming only gains from Labor) previously, and now that is 6.0%.
If you include potential crossbench gains, the Coalition needed a uniform 2CP swing of 4.0% prior to the redistribution, and now requires 3.9%.
There were 8 crossbench seats held on margins of 4.2% or less prior to the redistribution. The abolition of North Sydney and the increased safety of Wentworth lowers that number to six.
2:24pm – And here is the new pendulum.
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Gilmore (NSW) | ALP 0.2% | Deakin (VIC) | LIB 0.02% |
| Menzies (VIC) | ALP 0.4% | Bennelong (NSW) | LIB 0.1% |
| Lyons (TAS) | ALP 0.9% | Sturt (SA) | LIB 0.5% |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | Moore (WA) | LIB 0.9% |
| Robertson (NSW) | ALP 2.3% | Canning (WA) | LIB 1.1% |
| Paterson (NSW) | ALP 2.6% | Casey (VIC) | LIB 1.4% |
| Tangney (WA) | ALP 3.0% | Bass (TAS) | LIB 1.4% |
| Boothby (SA) | ALP 3.3% | Dickson (QLD) | LNP 1.7% |
| Bullwinkel (WA) | ALP 3.3% | Cowper (NSW) | NAT 2.4% vs IND |
| Chisholm (VIC) | ALP 3.3% | Bradfield (NSW) | LIB 2.5% vs IND |
| McEwen (VIC) | ALP 3.4% | Nicholls (VIC) | NAT 2.5% vs IND |
| Parramatta (NSW) | ALP 3.7% | Aston (VIC) | LIB 2.6% |
| Wills (VIC) | ALP 4.6% vs GRN | Banks (NSW) | LIB 2.6% |
| Hunter (NSW) | ALP 4.8% | Monash (VIC) | LIB 2.9% |
| Reid (NSW) | ALP 5.2% | Longman (QLD) | LNP 3.1% |
| Blair (QLD) | ALP 5.2% | Bonner (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Bruce (VIC) | ALP 5.3% | Wannon (VIC) | LIB 3.4% vs IND |
| Werriwa (NSW) | ALP 5.3% | Leichhardt (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Shortland (NSW) | ALP 6.0% | Hughes (NSW) | LIB 3.5% |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | ALP 6.1% | Flynn (QLD) | LNP 3.8% |
| Macquarie (NSW) | ALP 6.3% | Forrest (WA) | LIB 4.2% |
| Dobell (NSW) | ALP 6.5% | Forde (QLD) | LNP 4.2% |
| Dunkley (VIC) | ALP 6.8% | Petrie (QLD) | LNP 4.4% |
| Holt (VIC) | ALP 7.1% | Durack (WA) | LIB 4.7% |
| Hawke (VIC) | ALP 7.6% | Bowman (QLD) | LNP 5.5% |
| Corangamite (VIC) | ALP 7.8% | Lindsay (NSW) | LIB 6.1% |
| Cooper (VIC) | ALP 7.8% vs GRN | Flinders (VIC) | LIB 6.2% |
| Greenway (NSW) | ALP 8.0% | Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 6.6% |
| Richmond (NSW) | ALP 8.2% | O’Connor (WA) | LIB 6.7% |
| Whitlam (NSW) | ALP 8.3% | Hume (NSW) | LIB 6.9% |
| Pearce (WA) | ALP 8.8% | Groom (QLD) | LNP 6.9% vs IND |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | ALP 8.9% | Berowra (NSW) | LIB 7.5% |
| Rankin (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | Braddon (TAS) | LIB 8.0% |
| Moreton (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | La Trobe (VIC) | LIB 8.4% |
| Solomon (NT) | ALP 9.4% | Fisher (QLD) | LNP 8.7% |
| Swan (WA) | ALP 9.4% | Fairfax (QLD) | LNP 9.0% |
| Isaacs (VIC) | ALP 9.5% | McPherson (QLD) | LNP 9.3% |
| Macarthur (NSW) | ALP 9.8% | Calare (NSW) | NAT 9.7% vs IND |
| Cowan (WA) | ALP 9.9% | Riverina (NSW) | NAT 9.7% |
| Gorton (VIC) | ALP 10.0% | Grey (SA) | LIB 10.1% |
| Hasluck (WA) | ALP 10.1% | Hinkler (QLD) | LNP 10.1% |
| McMahon (NSW) | ALP 10.5% | Dawson (QLD) | LNP 10.4% |
| Lilley (QLD) | ALP 10.5% | Mitchell (NSW) | LIB 10.5% |
| Makin (SA) | ALP 10.8% | Fadden (QLD) | LNP 10.6% |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Page (NSW) | NAT 10.7% |
| Hotham (VIC) | ALP 11.6% | Wright (QLD) | LNP 10.9% |
| Oxley (QLD) | ALP 11.6% | Moncrieff (QLD) | LNP 11.2% |
| Adelaide (SA) | ALP 11.9% | Wide Bay (QLD) | LNP 11.3% |
| Bendigo (VIC) | ALP 12.0% | Cook (NSW) | LIB 11.7% |
| Barton (NSW) | ALP 12.0% | Herbert (QLD) | LNP 11.8% |
| Macnamara (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Lyne (NSW) | NAT 13.8% |
| Canberra (ACT) | ALP 12.2% vs GRN | New England (NSW) | NAT 15.2% |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Farrer (NSW) | LIB 16.4% |
| Calwell (VIC) | ALP 12.4% | Barker (SA) | LIB 16.6% |
| Corio (VIC) | ALP 12.5% | Parkes (NSW) | NAT 18.1% |
| Lalor (VIC) | ALP 12.8% | Mallee (VIC) | NAT 19% |
| Spence (SA) | ALP 12.9% | Gippsland (VIC) | NAT 20.6% |
| Bean (ACT) | ALP 12.9% | Maranoa (QLD) | LNP 22.1% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Blaxland (NSW) | ALP 13.1% | ||
| Burt (WA) | ALP 13.3% | ||
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | ALP 13.3% | Curtin (WA) | IND 1.3% vs LIB |
| Chifley (NSW) | ALP 13.6% | Fowler (NSW) | IND 1.4% vs ALP |
| Franklin (TAS) | ALP 13.7% | Ryan (QLD) | GRN 2.6% vs LNP |
| Perth (WA) | ALP 14.4% | Mackellar (NSW) | IND 3.3% vs LIB |
| Cunningham (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Kooyong (VIC) | IND 3.5% vs LIB |
| Watson (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Brisbane (QLD) | GRN 3.7% vs LNP |
| Scullin (VIC) | ALP 15.3% | Goldstein (VIC) | IND 3.9% vs LIB |
| Fenner (ACT) | ALP 15.7% | Melbourne (VIC) | GRN 6.9% vs ALP |
| Kingston (SA) | ALP 16.4% | Indi (VIC) | IND 8.9% vs LIB |
| Sydney (NSW) | ALP 16.5% vs GRN | Wentworth (NSW) | IND 9.0% vs LIB |
| Fraser (VIC) | ALP 16.6% | Warringah (NSW) | IND 9.4% vs LIB |
| Fremantle (WA) | ALP 16.7% | Griffith (QLD) | GRN 10.5% vs LNP |
| Brand (WA) | ALP 17.1% | Mayo (SA) | CA 12.3% vs LIB |
| Grayndler (NSW) | ALP 17.4% vs GRN | Kennedy (QLD) | KAP 13.1% vs LNP |
| Newcastle (NSW) | ALP 17.9% | Clark (TAS) | IND 20.8% vs ALP |
2:17pm – In terms of the degree of change, 46% of Blaxland consists of new voters, with over 30% of voters in Bennelong, Watson and McMahon. Over a quarter of voters are new to Warringah, Grayndler, Parramatta and Bradfield.
Outside Sydney, Riverina is most changed with almost a quarter of voters being new. Hume is also 23% new.
2:13pm – Changes were minor in northern NSW. Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne are either unchanged, or very close to it. New England has expanded slightly in two directions but has maintained its identity.
The Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson have also been left alone, with very minor changes to Shortland and Newcastle.
Paterson has contracted on its western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter, cutting Meryl Swanson’s margin from 3.3% to 2.6% and increasing Labor’s margin in Hunter from 4.0% to 4.8%.
Changes were much more dramatic in the south-east of the state. Cunningham has been largely left alone. Whitlam has taken in the remainder of the Wingecarribee Shire from Hume, but it already covered most of the population centres in that council area.
Eden-Monaro has expanded north to take in Goulburn from Hume, losing Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass to the west of the Great Dividing Range and the ACT.
Calare has been left alone and Parkes has been slightly changed, but Riverina has moved a great deal east, expanding to meet the ACT and take in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Yass and Upper Lachlan. Farrer has been untouched.
2:06pm – Okay, an hour after the proposal was published, I now have the space to actually look at the maps.
On the north shore, Mackellar has expanded south into Warringah, with Warringah then compensating by moving west into North Sydney.
The committee has taken the Liberal Party’s approach of then dividing up the remainder of North Sydney into two parts between the Labor seat of Bennelong and the Liberal seat of Bradfield. This is good news for Paul Fletcher.
Bennelong has then shifted east, causing the seat to flip from 1.0% ALP to 0.1% Liberal, although margins always have uncertainty. Another analyst could easily see this seat as remaining in Labor hands. Parramatta has also shifted north, although it has spread out both to the north-east and north-west.
In the inner city, Wentworth has lost part of Clovelly to Kingsford Smith and gained Potts Point and Darlinghurst. These areas look small on a map but they are very densely populated and very bad for the Liberal Party so it’s a good sign for Spender.
Plibersek has picked up the Balmain peninsula, but there is no land connection to the main part of the seat. Grayndler has shifted south-west, picking up the remainder of Marrickville (including Albanese’s home area).
I was surprised to see that Kingsford-Smith has expanded past the airport to take in the Botany Bay shore including Brighton-le-Sands and Monterey. Cook has contracted to be more Shire-based, but still has a beach-head in Sans Souci.
Watson has shifted substantially to the west, taking in Bankstown from Blaxland, while Blaxland has expanded north-west to take in parts of Parramatta and McMahon.
Fowler has been left mostly intact, gaining a small area from McMahon. McMahon has expanded further into the Blacktown council area. Greenway has gained areas from the northern end of Mitchell while Chifley and Lindsay are largely intact.
Werriwa has contracted, losing its western and southern ends, while Macarthur has become even more Campbelltown-based, losing the fast-growing areas around Leppington and Oran Park.
Hume is now firmly a Macarthur-area seat, based entirely within the Wollondilly and Camden LGAs with a few sparsely-populated parts of Liverpool and Penrith council areas. It is no longer the vast and disconnected seat that included Goulburn and Camden while skipping over the Southern Highlands.
It’s also worth mentioning Hughes, which was traditionally split between the Sutherland shire and Liverpool. But it has instead spilled over the Georges River into Campbelltown, taking in Ingleburn, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. This has really hit the Liberal margin.
1:50pm – And here is my interactive map.
1:43pm – Once we factor in the new area of Fowler taken in from McMahon, Dai Le’s margin is cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
1:37pm – Okay I have fixed the figures for Blaxland, McMahon and Parramatta, will need a few more minutes to calculate a new margin for Fowler using the method used for Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth.
Labor margin in Parramatta cut by 0.9%. Bowen’s margin is only up 1%, not 3%. Jason Clare’s margin in Blaxland cut by 1.9%.
1:30pm – Okay small problem with “McMahon” not matching “Mcmahon”. Will change the estimates for Fowler, McMahon, Blaxland and Parramatta. Will take a minute to update my tables.
1:26pm – Hmm potential problem with McMahon, bear with me a minute.
1:23pm – So overall one independent seat has been abolished, and one neighbouring Labor seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal (by the slimmest of margins). The total seat count is 25 Labor, 10 Liberal, 7 Nationals and 4 independents (3 teals and Dai Le).
Interesting takeaways:
- Bennelong flips from 1.0% Labor seat to 0.1% Liberal seat.
- Allegra Spender’s margin in Wentworth increases from 4.2% to 9.0%, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar is up from 2.5% to 3.3%, and Zali Steggall’s margin decreases from 11.0% to 9.4%.
- Paul Fletcher’s margin in Bradfield has been cut from 4.2% to 2.5% against the teal independents. Kylea Tink’s margin in North Sydney was 2.9%.
- Dai Le’s margin has been cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
- Chris Bowen’s margin in McMahon increased from 9.5% to 10.5%.
- Little change in Labor’s margin against the Greens in Grayndler (up 0.3%) and Sydney (down 0.2%)
- Liberal margin in Hughes halved from 7.0% to 3.5%.
- Nationals margin in Riverina cut from 14.8% to 9.7%.
- Labor margins in Barton and Greenway cut by 3.5% each.
- Parramatta Labor margin cut from 4.6% to 3.7%.
1:15pm – Here are the margins.
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Banks | LIB 3.2% | LIB 2.6% |
| Barton | ALP 15.5% | ALP 12% |
| Bennelong | ALP 1.0% | LIB 0.1% |
| Berowra | LIB 9.8% | LIB 7.5% |
| Blaxland | ALP 14.9% | ALP 13.1% |
| Bradfield | LIB vs IND 4.2% | LIB vs IND 2.5% |
| Calare | NAT vs IND 9.7% | NAT vs IND 9.7% |
| Chifley | ALP 13.5% | ALP 13.6% |
| Cook | LIB 12.4% | LIB 11.7% |
| Cowper | NAT vs IND 2.3% | NAT vs IND 2.4% |
| Cunningham | ALP 14.7% | ALP 15.1% |
| Dobell | ALP 6.5% | ALP 6.5% |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP 8.2% | ALP 6.1% |
| Farrer | LIB 16.4% | LIB 16.4% |
| Fowler | IND vs ALP 1.6% | IND vs ALP 1.4% |
| Gilmore | ALP 0.2% | ALP 0.2% |
| Grayndler | ALP vs GRN 17.1% | ALP vs GRN 17.4% |
| Greenway | ALP 11.5% | ALP 8.0% |
| Hughes | LIB 7.0% | LIB 3.5% |
| Hume | LIB 7.7% | LIB 6.9% |
| Hunter | ALP 4.0% | ALP 4.8% |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP 14.5% | ALP 13.3% |
| Lindsay | LIB 6.3% | LIB 6.1% |
| Lyne | NAT 13.8% | NAT 13.8% |
| Macarthur | ALP 8.5% | ALP 9.8% |
| Mackellar | IND vs LIB 2.5% | IND vs LIB 3.3% |
| Macquarie | ALP 7.8% | ALP 6.3% |
| McMahon | ALP 9.5% | ALP 10.5% |
| Mitchell | LIB 10.7% | LIB 10.5% |
| New England | NAT 16.4% | NAT 15.2% |
| Newcastle | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.9% |
| North Sydney (Abolished) | IND vs LIB 2.9% | |
| Page | NAT 10.7% | NAT 10.7% |
| Parkes | NAT 17.8% | NAT 18.1% |
| Parramatta | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.7% |
| Paterson | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.6% |
| Reid | ALP 5.2% | ALP 5.2% |
| Richmond | ALP 8.2% | ALP 8.2% |
| Riverina | NAT 14.8% | NAT 9.7% |
| Robertson | ALP 2.3% | ALP 2.3% |
| Shortland | ALP 5.8% | ALP 6.0% |
| Sydney | ALP vs GRN 16.7% | ALP vs GRN 16.5% |
| Warringah | IND vs LIB 11.0% | IND vs LIB 9.4% |
| Watson | ALP 15.1% | ALP 15.1% |
| Wentworth | IND vs LIB 4.2% | IND vs LIB 9.0% |
| Werriwa | ALP 5.8% | ALP 5.3% |
| Whitlam | ALP 10.1% | ALP 8.3% |
12:55pm – And here is my estimates of primary vote and 2PP by seat. I’ll be back with the margin estimates in a minute.
I’ll come back to analyse in a bit but at first glance I notice that the 2PP in Bennelong is 50.1% to the Liberal Party.
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LNP 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Banks | 47.4 | 52.6 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Barton | 62.0 | 38.0 | 48.0 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Bennelong | 49.9 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 40.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Berowra | 42.5 | 57.5 | 23.9 | 47.2 | 14.9 | 4.6 |
| Blaxland | 63.1 | 36.9 | 51.7 | 27.1 | 6.7 | 1.0 |
| Bradfield | 43.8 | 56.2 | 17.7 | 43.7 | 8.6 | 25.3 |
| Calare | 34.5 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| Chifley | 63.6 | 36.4 | 53.0 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Cook | 38.3 | 61.7 | 24.0 | 53.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 |
| Cowper | 40.5 | 59.5 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 5.9 | 26.2 |
| Cunningham | 65.1 | 34.9 | 41.2 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 0.0 |
| Dobell | 56.5 | 43.5 | 42.9 | 33.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Eden-Monaro | 56.1 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Farrer | 33.6 | 66.4 | 19.0 | 52.3 | 9.1 | 3.2 |
| Fowler | 55.9 | 44.1 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.3 |
| Gilmore | 50.2 | 49.8 | 35.9 | 42.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 |
| Grayndler | 76.7 | 23.3 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 1.5 |
| Greenway | 58.0 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Hughes | 46.5 | 53.5 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| Hume | 43.1 | 56.9 | 24.2 | 42.5 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
| Hunter | 54.8 | 45.2 | 39.4 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.3 | 36.7 | 47.4 | 29.6 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
| Lindsay | 43.9 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Lyne | 36.2 | 63.8 | 21.5 | 43.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Macarthur | 59.8 | 40.2 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Mackellar | 42.1 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 6.3 | 38.5 |
| Macquarie | 56.3 | 43.7 | 41.8 | 35.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Mcmahon | 60.5 | 39.5 | 48.5 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell | 39.5 | 60.5 | 25.6 | 52.4 | 12.0 | 0.1 |
| New England | 34.8 | 65.2 | 19.9 | 50.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Newcastle | 67.9 | 32.1 | 44.1 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Page | 39.3 | 60.7 | 18.6 | 45.4 | 8.4 | 13.5 |
| Parkes | 31.9 | 68.1 | 19.5 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Parramatta | 53.7 | 46.3 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
| Paterson | 52.6 | 47.4 | 40.1 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Reid | 55.2 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 37.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 58.2 | 41.8 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 5.6 |
| Riverina | 40.3 | 59.7 | 24.9 | 43.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Robertson | 52.3 | 47.7 | 37.7 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Shortland | 56.0 | 44.0 | 40.2 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 |
| Sydney | 75.7 | 24.3 | 51.0 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
| Warringah | 49.3 | 50.7 | 12.0 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 39.8 |
| Watson | 65.1 | 34.9 | 53.9 | 26.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| Wentworth | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.7 | 37.5 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Werriwa | 55.3 | 44.7 | 39.1 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| Whitlam | 58.3 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
12:47pm – The video also indicates that Hume shifts north to take in more of Sydney and go no further than Wollondilly Shire. Eden-Monaro would take in Goulburn.
12:44pm – The AEC’s proposal is still not up, but they have published a video which shows the maps of a few seats. You can see that Bennelong has been moved into North Sydney, wile Bradfield only shifts slightly. This is bad for Labor in Bennelong and also breaks up Kylea Tink’s territory more seriously than if Bradfield moved south to absorb the whole area.
12:04pm – The gazette has been published, and the seat of North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished. 12.8% of all voters in NSW have been moved into a different seat. This compares to 8.3% in Victoria and 14.6% in WA. We have no further details.
12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for New South Wales this afternoon. I expect they will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.
My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, maps showing the old and new boundaries, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and the pendulum showing the new margins.
first to post
@John Can we have another drum roll please?
North Sydney set to be abolished
https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2024G00358/asmade/text
North Sydney it is. Not unexpected. Interesting that they have not chosen to abolish a seat in the inner south west as was suggested by many of the suggestions, will mean some interesting maps.
Also good to see that Joseph Cook has finally gotten recognition.
Seems like a lot of seats are going to be dragged west with no new seat created in the west. Probably a decent chance of Hughes becoming notionally Labor and maybe one of Macarthur/Werriwa becoming notionally Liberal as it gets dragged into Camden council.
I have a feeling Bennelong is going to jump Lane River and take in parts of Lane Cove now.
The name North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished.
Warringah and Bradfield are going to also be radically changed as well. Possibly Bennelong too.
it looks like they have taken my suggestion to jointly name Cook after Sir Joseph Cook
@angas yes i suggested that 😀
@John Perfect, thanks!
Likewise with Jospeh Cook. Seemed like a no brainer.
7 seats staying the same. I’m guessing: Richmond, Page, Calare, Newcastle, Dobell, Robertson and maybe Reid?
Looks like they’ve only changed the boundaries of 39 divisions, so I’m assuming that means that Richmond, Lyne, Newcastle, Dobell, Robertson, Calare, Farrer are unchanged. Maybe Whitlam too?
@Drake
Beat to me to it! Forgot about Reid!
@angas thats 8
@angas that 9 check your math
im saying Farrer, Robertson, Dobell, Newcastle, Richmond, Calare and Page
I reckon the unchanged seats will be at least these three: Farrer, Richmond and Newcastle. As for the other four, not sure but unlikely to include Fowler and McMahon as they fall right in the middle between the high growth outer suburbs and the low growth middle ring suburbs.
@yoh they wont be included as theyre under quota as is
@John
I’m uncertain whether we count the 39 changed against the original 47 or the proposed 46, so it could be 7 or 8.
I’d say definitely the first 6 you mentioned, although it could be Lyne instead of Page depending on how they decided to handle Cowper’s surplus.
@angas it would be aaginst 46 as 1 is abolished
@that would mean that shortland will be taking parts of hunter
Tried the link but did not work
@Yoh An
Yeah it would be wild if they kept McMahon and Fowler as is given the changes that will need to occur around them.
@John
Argenton/Glendale always seemed like an obvious transfer from Hunter to Shortland. I’m interested to see if they also transfer Wyee.
Hughes to Go I reckon – all Sth Coast seats to push North towards Sydney
@angas thats what i did
On the unchanged, I can see Richmond, Page, Newcastle, Robertson, Dobell, Eden Monaro possibly Kingsford Smith or Reid but after that, I am seriously stumped.
@redistributed im willing to wager i got at least 5 correct. Kingsford smith and eden monaro will be chnaged. i think reid will be too
There is a chance something in Sydney like Kingsford Smith or Reid remain unchanged. I would rate it unlikely because surrounding seats need to move and in the case of Kingsford Smith, have few other good options to take from.
Richmond, Page, Dobell, Robertson and Newcastle would be the ones I expect little to no change for
Seats in quota:
in Sydney: Reid, McMahon, Fowler
regional NSW: Farrer, Calare, Whitlam, Richmond, Page, Lyne, Robertson, Dobell, Newcastle
Really struggle to see how they could prevent any change in McMahon and Fowler.
A seat (or seats) in south western Sydney is going to end up with a very low % of its existing voters. Not sure which though.
@Ben Raue
While we’re eagerly awaiting the full proposal, I feel I should say a quick thank you for all your electoral analysis and for providing us a space to discuss the redistributions. I’ve learned a lot from your blog posts and from the community comments. It’s really quite interesting to see how our electoral dynamics have evolved over time both through redistributions and through other electoral system amendments, demographic changes and so on.
proposal is up and go
@Redistributed
Hughes feels like the easiest name for them to pick up and drop somewhere else given it has bounced around between Liverpool, Sutherland Shire and the Illawarra. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has been abolished in practice and reincarnated somewhere else.
https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/nsw/proposed-redistribution/index.html
Banks does not look good for the Liberals
big changes to Hume. it might just make Whitlam and EM winnable for the coalition
@SCart theres nothing wrong with that
Outside of Bennelong, you’d have to think Labour would be very happy with the changes here!
Can’t say I’m the biggest fan of the committees work. Cook still crosses the Georges River and Kingsford Smith is now has a very strange tail running down to Ramsgate to meet up with it.
That’s probably my biggest objection on first glance. The failure to ensure that Sydney is a contiguous seat on the ground also irks me but isn’t quite so bad.
I’d be happy to see Hume more of a Sydney based seat, but not if it can only happen with THAT version of Whitlam.
Will be interesting to see others reactions here.
@conor i think thats by far their best redistribution of the three. yes it still crosses the river but barely. thats an easy fix next time
Ind primary estimate for Fowler seems off?
Kingsford Smith was the main thing that looked extremely weird
@drake same with Grayndler but theyve fixed that problem
@Drake Really? Parramatta and Paterson are now looking more vulnerable. Can’t say the same about any Liberal seat bar Bradfield and even Lavor won’t be gaining that.
They could of drawn Parramatta and Paterson way worse for Labor though
@scart i think given both boele and tink want to run in bradfield and its less safe now that paul fletcher is in trouble. stegall is less safe but spender more so
Look how they massacred Kingsford Smith 😭😭😭
It is strange that they have left over quota regional seats – Cowper, Lyne and Gilmore either unchanged or almost unchanged. Hughes is odd too – can you actually drive from one end to the other without leaving the electorate?
On these boundaries I would imagine Kylea Tink would be best placed running in Bennelong? Probably more favourable for her than Bradfield (where Boele would like her chances)
@John the Kingsford Smith and Cook boundaries make the whole thing a write off for me. I imagine they can justify the community of interest on LGA grounds, but the LGA itself is dysfunctional and has no community of interest between different parts of the LGA. Other issues I could live with, that I think is just too bad to accept.
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