VIC and WA federal redistribution drafts released – live

By
Ben Raue
-
587

6:12pm – I have one last update and then my margins will be finalised.

There are four seats in Victoria where independents made it to the two-candidate-preferred count (2CP), but have added new areas where there was no independent in the 2CP: Goldstein, Kooyong, Nicholls and Wannon.

This issue isn’t relevant in Curtin, since that seat only lost territory. It’s also not an issue in Labor vs Coalition seats with non-classic areas added, since the AEC has calculated a 2PP figure in every part of the country. It’s also not such a big issue in the seat of Melbourne. Since the Greens had a primary vote in the new areas added to Melbourne, you can calculate a margin based on preference flows.

But in the case of Goldstein, Kooyong, Nicholls and Wannon, none of that works. You could theoretically not count any votes in the newly-added areas, or give the independent candidates zero votes in those areas. Neither of those seem fair.

Accounting for these new areas is important in all four seats, but particularly in Kooyong. Almost one quarter of all electors in Kooyong are new to the electorate, all from Higgins. The figure in the other seats ranges from 3.7% in Wannon to 9.1% in Goldstein. This reflects the relatively minor changes in rural Victoria and the major changes in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

My first approach earlier this afternoon was to credit all Labor 2PP votes to the independent, and all Coalition votes to the Coalition candidate. But I think that underestimates their support.

In the areas which were not new additions to these seats, we have both a 2CP between the independent and a Liberal or Nationals opponent, plus a 2PP which is Labor vs Coalition. We also have 2PP counts for all the new areas. In all four cases, the newly-added areas are less favourable to Coalition on the 2PP than the areas already contained in these seats. Indeed every seat that gave some territory to a seat where an independent made the final count is held by Labor: Hotham, Isaacs, Higgins, Bendigo and Corangamite.

We know that generally independents did better against the Coalition than Labor did in these seats.

So this table shows my revised approach. I have compared the 2CP and 2PP in the non-moving areas, to calculate how much the independent over-performed Labor. I then add that extra vote to the Labor 2PP in the newly-added areas.

This approach significantly improves the independent position in all four seats. What do you think?

I also want to briefly touch on the peculiar seat of Macnamara. My approach to redistribution (which I believe is similar to Antony and William) is to break up the vote by each SA1, and then reassign the SA1s to the new seats and merge them. Unfortunately this means that, when there is a vote category that has been amalgamated into a single seat-wide total (such as postal votes) effectively I assign the same share of postal votes to every SA1. This is less true for pre-poll votes (where there are multiple pre-poll centres with different geographic patterns) and much less true for election day votes.

I have an alternative approach for state and local redistributions, where we don’t have SA1 results data. For those, I distribute the election day votes then skew the special votes to match the skew of the election day vote. So if Labor does better in one part of the seat on election day, I give it a better share of the special vote in that part of the seat.

I tried to apply that approach to my federal method but it didn’t work, so I’ve left it as is.

Most of the time this doesn’t cause problems. Usually we’re most interested in seats where the changes were significant, not the seats where changes were slight. These estimates are not precise, so when changes are small they should be taken with a grain of salt. 0.1% one way or the other isn’t really meaningful.

Now in Macnamara and Higgins there is a peculiarly large gap between voting patterns in different parts of the seats, and we’ve often seen very left-wing areas around Windsor moved around while they are part of larger seats that have voted Liberal (or at least not been so left-voting). This can produce peculiar outcomes where a small movement of a very left-wing part of a more conservative seat produces a counterintuitive change in the margin.

I recommend that people don’t obsess over very slight changes in the margin or primary vote estimates in Macnamara. The seat was close to a three-way tie in 2022 and any redistribution changes will be much less significant than how voters change in 2025.

4:10pm – I’ve now finished replacing the data after fixing the SA1 issue. The margin in Melbourne has dropped a bit further to 6.9% (I’d previously estimated 7.9%). The Labor margin in Wills is slightly better than I’d previously estimated, now at 4.6%.

3:51pm – Looking at the Victorian 2PP and primary votes, the main changes were Bruce, where the Labor margin is now 5.3%, which is much closer to the pre-redistribution margin and closer to Antony’s margin.

3:06pm – Okay I’ve solved the SA1 problem and will start uploading the corrected figures. Starting with 2PP and primary for WA, the Labor margin for Cowan has dropped to 9.9%, whereas my first estimate had it up to 11.0% (from 10.8%). The Labor margin in Bullwinkel is just 3.3% (not 3.7%) and Labor in Pearce is on 8.8% (not 8.4%). The Liberal margin in Canning is now 1.1%, not 0.8%.

2:33pm – It appears the AEC has switched from using 2016 SA1s for the 2022 election results spreadsheet to 2021 SA1s for the redistribution data, so it will be necessary to add some extra code that adjusts for these changes and this may change some margins. I’ll get that done later today and update the tables.

2:07pm – Okay I’m logging off now. I’m sure there’ll be more analysis later. I will be writing a piece for the Guardian tomorrow and I’ll be carefully kicking some tyres to see if there are any errors in the estimates over the coming days.

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2:05pm – So the creation of Bullwinkel in the outer east of Perth has then pushed all of the neighbouring seats out of the way.

Hasluck has become a much smaller seat and now sits entirely on the northern side of Perth.

Moore has shifted south, with Pearce adding a small area from Moore. Cowan and Perth have lost their eastern edges to Hasluck.

Swan has also shifted west, while Canning has lost its north-eastern corner to Bullwinkel and compensated by picking up Karnup from Brand. This explains the big drop in the Liberal margin there.

Tangney, Fremantle and Curtin have experienced very minor changes.

1:59pm – And here is the interactive map for WA.

1:55pm – Okay now here we have the 2CP margins for WA. Curtin thankfully didn’t add any extra territory so no complicated calculations needed there. Bullwinkel is a notional Labor seat with a 3.7% margin. Labor has also significantly improved their position in Hasluck, and the Liberal position is weaker in Canning. Labor’s margin has also been dented in Burt.

This means that Labor has gained a seat and the Liberal Party has lost a seat so far in this redistribution, with NSW yet to come.

Seat Old margin New margin
Brand ALP 16.7% ALP 17.1%
Bullwinkel (new) ALP 3.3%
Burt ALP 15.2% ALP 13.3%
Canning LIB 3.6% LIB 1.1%
Cowan ALP 10.8% ALP 9.9%
Curtin IND vs LIB 1.3% IND vs LIB 1.3%
Durack LIB 4.3% LIB 4.7%
Forrest LIB 4.3% LIB 4.2%
Fremantle ALP 16.9% ALP 16.7%
Hasluck ALP 6% ALP 10.1%
Moore LIB 0.7% LIB 0.9%
O’Connor LIB 7% LIB 6.7%
Pearce ALP 9% ALP 8.8%
Perth ALP 14.8% ALP 14.4%
Swan ALP 8.8% ALP 9.4%
Tangney ALP 2.4% ALP 3%

1:49pm – And here we go with WA. This table shows the 2PP and primary vote estimates for each seat.

Seat ALP 2PP LIB 2PP ALP prim LNP prim GRN prim IND prim
Brand 67.1 32.9 50.7 21.8 11.3 0.0
Bullwinkel 53.3 46.7 36.4 35.74 11.3 1.8
Burt 63.3 36.7 49.8 24.78 9.5 0.2
Canning 48.9 51.1 35.1 41.44 8.4 1.6
Cowan 59.9 40.1 45.8 30.97 10.0 0.0
Curtin 44.4 55.6 13.8 41.36 10.4 29.7
Durack 45.3 54.7 28.8 44.84 9.5 0.0
Forrest 45.8 54.2 27.7 43.13 13.3 0.1
Fremantle 66.7 33.3 44.0 24.38 17.9 0.0
Hasluck 60.1 39.9 43.7 30.12 11.4 2.1
Moore 49.1 50.9 31.9 41.81 14.1 1.3
O’Connor 43.3 56.7 26.7 44.5 10.9 0.0
Pearce 58.8 41.2 42.4 30.12 11.2 0.0
Perth 64.4 35.6 39.1 27.21 22.0 0.0
Swan 59.4 40.6 40.0 31.64 15.1 0.0
Tangney 53.0 47.0 38.2 39.41 12.4 0.0

1:36pm – So just a quick description of what the map shows before moving on to WA.

The seat of Melbourne has jumped the river into South Yarra, which has then pulled Wills and Cooper south, making Wills much stronger for the Greens. This doesn’t appear to have done much to the Greens’ position in Macnamara, although we’ll need to wait for a 3CP estimate to know for sure.

The abolition of Higgins has had dramatic impacts in the eastern suburbs, with Kooyong and Chisholm absorbing most of the seat.

Menzies has lost areas further east and expanded into Box Hill, which explains the seat becoming notional Labor.

Deakin has retracted to areas further east, further reducing the Liberal margin from a slim 0.2% to 0.02%.

Aston was barely touched, as was Goldstein, but Hotham, Isaacs and Dunkley have all been pulled north. Casey also expanded west to take in areas from McEwen and Menzies.

In the western suburbs, Lalor has contracted sharply, and Hawke has taken in the area around Melbourne Airport. But generally changes in the west were mild.

Outside of Melbourne, Corangamite has again shrunk in size, now almost entirely fitting within the Bellarine Peninsula.

Indi, Gippsland, Mallee and Monash appear to be unchanged, or close to it. McEwen has moved closer to Melbourne, but it has made no difference to the margin.

1:26pm – Okay I have now had a chance to revise my Melbourne 2CP estimate which was very quick. I now have the Greens on 7.9% by applying the same preference flows to the new areas as the rest. That is a drop in the Greens margin of 2.3%, but nothing like my first estimate.

1:18pm – Okay here is my interactive map where you can toggle between the old and new boundaries for Victoria. Will take a quick bathroom break then be back.

1:05pm – And here is my first stab at the new margins for Victorian seats compared to the old margins.

Seat Old margin New margin
Aston LIB 2.8% LIB 2.6%
Ballarat ALP 13% ALP 13%
Bendigo ALP 12.1% ALP 12%
Bruce ALP 6.6% ALP 5.3%
Calwell ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4%
Casey LIB 1.5% LIB 1.4%
Chisholm ALP 6.4% ALP 3.3%
Cooper ALP vs GRN 8.7% ALP vs GRN 7.8%
Corangamite ALP 7.6% ALP 7.8%
Corio ALP 12.8% ALP 12.5%
Deakin LIB 0.2% LIB 0%
Dunkley ALP 6.3% ALP 6.8%
Flinders LIB 6.7% LIB 6.2%
Fraser ALP 16.5% ALP 16.6%
Gellibrand ALP 11.5% ALP 11.2%
Gippsland NAT 20.6% NAT 20.6%
Goldstein IND vs LIB 2.9% IND vs LIB 3.9%
Gorton ALP 10% ALP 10%
Hawke ALP 7.6% ALP 7.6%
Higgins (abolished) ALP 2.1%
Holt ALP 7.1% ALP 7.1%
Hotham ALP 14.3% ALP 11.6%
Indi IND vs LIB 8.9% IND vs LIB 8.9%
Isaacs ALP 6.9% ALP 9.5%
Jagajaga ALP 12.3% ALP 12.2%
Kooyong IND vs LIB 2.9% IND vs LIB 3.5%
La Trobe LIB 8.7% LIB 8.4%
Lalor ALP 12.8% ALP 12.8%
Macnamara ALP 12.2% ALP 12.2%
Mallee NAT 19% NAT 19%
Maribyrnong ALP 12.4% ALP 13%
McEwen ALP 3.3% ALP 3.4%
Melbourne GRN vs ALP 10.2% GRN vs ALP 6.9%
Menzies LIB 0.7% ALP 0.4%
Monash LIB 2.9% LIB 2.9%
Nicholls NAT vs IND 3.8% NAT vs IND 2.5%
Scullin ALP 15.6% ALP 15.3%
Wannon LIB vs IND 3.9% LIB vs IND 3.4%
Wills ALP vs GRN 8.6% ALP vs GRN 4.6%

The Greens margin in Melbourne has been weakened quite significantly, while the Greens are much closer in Wills. Labor is also slightly weaker in Cooper.

Labor is much weaker in Bruce, Chisholm and Hotham, but stronger in Isaacs.

The seat of Menzies has flipped from 0.7% for the Liberal Party to 0.3% for Labor.

With Labor losing Higgins but picking up Menzies, that’s a net loss of one seat for the Liberal Party.

12:47pm – Okay I have calculated the 2PP and primary vote for the main parties for each seat, below.

Seat ALP 2PP LNP 2PP ALP prim LNP prim GRN prim IND prim
Aston 47.4 52.6 32.5 42.8 12.2 0.1
Ballarat 63.0 37.0 44.8 27.1 14.5 2.1
Bendigo 62.0 38.1 42.8 26.7 14.0 4.4
Bruce 55.3 44.7 40.3 31.7 9.7 0.2
Calwell 62.4 37.6 44.9 23.7 9.8 0.0
Casey 48.6 51.4 25.1 36.6 13.1 11.4
Chisholm 53.3 46.7 35.0 39.2 13.8 4.0
Cooper 75.7 24.3 40.7 16.2 28.4 0.0
Corangamite 57.8 42.2 38.4 34.0 15.3 0.0
Corio 62.5 37.5 41.9 25.0 14.7 0.1
Deakin 50.0 50.0 32.9 41.5 14.2 1.1
Dunkley 56.8 43.2 40.5 31.7 10.6 3.4
Flinders 43.8 56.2 22.8 43.3 9.5 11.7
Fraser 66.6 33.4 42.1 24.5 18.9 0.0
Gellibrand 61.2 38.8 42.8 27.2 15.6 0.3
Gippsland 29.4 70.6 19.2 54.1 8.5 0.0
Goldstein 46.3 53.7 13.6 39.6 8.4 31.3
Gorton 60.0 40.0 41.3 27.4 9.0 2.5
Hawke 57.6 42.4 36.7 26.4 8.9 7.9
Holt 57.1 42.9 40.8 29.5 8.6 3.0
Hotham 61.6 38.4 42.9 28.6 15.0 0.2
Indi 44.7 55.3 8.6 34.3 3.6 40.7
Isaacs 59.5 40.5 42.8 29.5 12.1 0.0
Jagajaga 62.2 37.8 40.8 29.2 16.7 3.0
Kooyong 46.3 53.7 11.3 43.4 9.9 31.0
La Trobe 41.6 58.4 26.2 45.2 10.9 0.0
Lalor 62.8 37.2 44.1 25.0 10.4 2.8
Macnamara 62.2 37.8 31.7 29.1 29.7 1.9
Mallee 31.0 69.0 16.8 49.1 5.3 12.2
Maribyrnong 63.0 37.0 42.2 26.8 16.7 0.0
McEwen 53.4 46.6 36.9 33.1 14.2 0.0
Melbourne 73.1 26.9 25.7 19.5 44.7 1.0
Menzies 50.4 49.6 31.8 41.0 12.9 4.9
Monash 47.1 52.9 25.6 37.8 9.9 10.7
Nicholls 34.1 65.9 13.2 43.5 3.7 24.0
Scullin 65.3 34.7 46.1 21.9 10.9 0.0
Wannon 41.4 58.6 19.7 44.2 6.7 20.8
Wills 77.1 22.9 36.4 16.2 32.8 0.2

12:40pm – The AEC has now published the Victorian redistribution. I’m going to focus on getting the new margins up first then analyse the trends.

12:17pm – While the AEC has not published anything, the Gazettes are now up.

In Victoria, the seat of Higgins has been proposed to be abolished. No other seat has changed names, and apparently 34 other divisions have been changed. 8.31% of all electors have been moved to a new seat.

In Western Australia, the new seat is named Bullwinkel, after Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel. The seat seems to be located in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth. 14.57% of electors have been moved to new seats.

12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for the states of Western Australia and Victoria this afternoon. They have indicated that the boundaries will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.

My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and maps showing the old and new boundaries.

In 2021 I was held up by a problem where they didn’t publish the SA1s for Victoria until a couple of hours after they published their report, and then there was a problem with the data. Hopefully that won’t happen again, but I’ll be relying on that data to calculate the new margins.

On the other hand, I have previously drawn my own KML versions of the electorate boundaries. I am not planning to do that this time, so it should be quicker to take the AEC shapefile and make interactive maps this afternoon.

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587 COMMENTS

  2. @AMfFS. doubtful. but a good guess remember there will be a objection and comments on objections period so the initial one to be abolished might change

  3. My final prediction is a Chisholm/Hotham merger with Chisholm’s northern border being the Burwood Fwy

  7. Higgins was definitely a candidate for abolition. It will be interesting to see the maps for the replacement – Macnamara moves east or Kooyong south?

  8. I expected Higgins to be abolished. It is a bit of a mix of many interests, and was well under quota. It will be interesting to see how it plays out because it was basically a 4 way race between Liberals, ALP, Greens and Teals. Fascinating…

  12. Wow, Higgins abolished. That really surprises me since it’s the seat that has produced 2 Prime Ministers. It was the most under-quota seat so it doesn’t necessarily surprise me that a seat in that region was abolished, but it’ still a surprising choice.

    I’m very curious to see how they drew the boundaries now. I assume maybe Kooyong has pushed down into the wealthier parts of Stonnington, maybe Hotham has moved west into the Glen Eira parts, the Chapel St area has surely been united with at least most of Port Phillip but then where does Caulfield go, perhaps Goldstein has moved up into more of the Caulfield area, or has Hotham become a predominantly Glen Eira based seat? Will be interesting to see.

  13. “The proposed federal divisions
    The Division of Higgins is proposed to be abolished.
    The Redistribution Committee proposes retiring the name ‘Higgins’ following the abolition of the Division of Higgins and retaining the names of 38 of Victoria’s existing electoral divisions.
    The Redistribution Committee proposes changing the boundaries of 34 of Victoria’s existing electoral divisions.
    As a result of the proposed redistribution, 369,249 electors enrolled in Victoria (or 8.31 per cent of all electors enrolled in Victoria on Wednesday 9 August 2023) will change their federal electoral division.”

  14. Higgins is a really interesting choice, but it could be consistent with it gaining all of Caulfield from Macnamara and Goldstein and thus changing its character enough to warrant a new name.

    The only other alternative that comes to mind is that the committee might have transferred Southbank or South Yarra into Melbourne to address the shortfall north of the Yarra. None of us have predicted that, but it was an option that was suggested before the enrolment projections were updated.

  15. WA
    https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2024G00307/asmade/text

    “THE PROPOSED FEDERAL DIVISIONS
    The new Division of Bullwinkel named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000) is proposed to include electors in the local government areas of the Shire of Beverley, Shire of Northam, Shire of Toodyay and Shire of York, as well as including parts of the City of Armadale, City of Gosnells, City of Kalamunda, Shire of Mundaring and City of Swan.
    The Redistribution Committee proposes that the names of all existing electoral divisions are retained.
    The Redistribution Committee proposes changing the boundaries of all of Western Australia’s existing electoral divisions.
    As a result of the proposed redistribution, 264,547 electors enrolled in Western Australia (being 14.57 per cent of all electors enrolled in Western Australia on Wednesday 9 August 2023) will change their federal electoral division.”

  21. VIC
    The Redistribution Committee proposes abolishing the existing Division of Higgins, with electors
    to be transferred to the proposed Divisions of Chisholm, Hotham, Kooyong, Macnamara,
    and Melbourne.

    WA
    The Redistribution Committee proposes that the electors comprising the new electoral division be
    transferred from the existing Divisions of Burt, Canning, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor and Swan

  23. Wills looking good for the Greens. Peter Khalil isn’t that impressive of an incumbent, the issues around Gaza, Labor being an incumbent Government and Greens running a high profile candidate will make it very interesting to say the least.

  25. Michelle Ananda Rajah’s mustn’t be too happy. She won’t be able to beat Monique Ryan or Adam Bandt into the runoff. Luckily she owns 7 houses so she should be able to find another electorate to contest without much trouble.

  26. im curious because the libs were a strong chance to retake higgins how this effects the overall numbers will Katie Allen take on the challenge in Macnamara Chisholm or Hotham?

  29. @adam yea because that wont look like a parachute. maybe she will contest kooyoong or goldstein?

  30. i think anne aly could be in trouble in wa now that all the former strong labor areas has been moveed in ot hasluck

  31. libs would be liking their chances in chisholm, holt and kooyong, greens got the upper hand at getting wills but malbourne has been cut substantially so bandt could be at risk

  32. Interested in Macnamara with the addition of a pretty green-friendly section of Windsor. Given how it was a few hundred votes between Labor/Greens when the latter were excluded in the final three in 2022, could swing it?

  33. Are you going to do a 3CP estimate for Macnamara, since the 3CP count is what’s most important there?

  35. The AEC has gone with abolishing Higgins, I thought they might go with abolishing Higgins since it looked like being the easiest electorate to split-up. However, the surprise is the proposal to shift South Yarra and Prahran into the electorate of Melbourne, not because it’s a bad idea. The AEC has also proposed to shift Windsor into Macnamara.

    Doing a quick flick through other electorates:

    -Dunkley loses parts of Mt Eliza to Flinders and gains areas north of Pattison Lakes
    = making it safer for Labor
    -Wills gains Fitzroy North, Carlton North and Brunswick East
    = making it stronger for the Greens
    -Kooyong gains Toorak, Prahran East, Armadale and Malvern and loses parts of Balywn North, Mont Albert, Surrey Hills, Camberwell and Glen Iris
    = slightly better for Hamer but offset by Prahran East having a good green vote
    -Goldstein gains parts of Highett, Bentleigh East and Moorabbin
    = Stronger for Daniel
    -Chisholm gains Malvern East, Ashburton, Glen Iris and losses parts of Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley, Notting Hill and Mulgrave
    = Favours the Liberals
    -Hotham gains Murrumbeena, Carnegie, Ormond and parts of Malvern East, Oakleigh, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley, Notting Hill and Mulgrave and losses Keysborough
    = More marginal however still safe Labor
    -Menzies picks up Mont Albert, Surrey Hills, all of Box Hill, Blackburn and Blackburn South and losses Nunwading, Mitchem, Donvale and Ringwood North
    = Difficult to call

  36. Wills is very strong for Greens and Cooper and Fraser still look pretty good for possible gains if LNP preference Greens over Labor (Fraser gaining a small chunk of Yarraville). Maribyrnong too if Greens are still well placed with the Muslim vote by 2025.

    Casey is still a seat combining once strong Green areas but without a start candidate it’s too far gone. Jagajaga has strong Green pockets too but it will be very hard to get out of 3rd.

    Macnamara is very messy but from the Green perspective at least Windsor is in it. There aren’t any other opportunities in the Southeast – there is some irony from that being the result of a Greens anchor being put into a Green seat.

    Hotham seems to be a more straight up left leaning seat like the ones in the North and West where Greens have pockets of strength but but they will have trouble overtaking the Liberals.

    The surf coast remains split between Corangamite and Wannon – if it ever even was a potential anchor for a Greens campaign.

    Anyway, thats what I see as a Greens supporter.

  37. I’m curious around how the new estimates for Macnamara have been calculated above. Overall it shows the following:
    * -0.1% Labor 2PP
    * -0.2% Labor Primary vote
    * +0.2% Liberal Primary vote
    * -0.5% Greens Primary vote

    But when you look at what has been added & removed from the seat; it has essentially replaced an area where the nearest booth (Fawkner Park) had the following:
    66% Labor 2PP, 30.5% Labor Primary, 26.9% Liberal Primary, 36.5% Greens Primary

    With a suburb where the two booths within its boundaries (Windsor & Prahran East) had:
    76.9% Labor 2PP, 30.4% Labor primary, 16.7% Liberal primary, 45.3% Greens primary
    71.4% Labor 2PP, 31.6% Labor primary, 20.4% Liberal primary, 38.8% Greens primary

    While there are obviously early & postal votes to take into account (which are harder to assign to any particular area), it’s clear that the territory Macnamara gained was worse for the Liberals and better for the Greens than the territory it lost, so it’s hard to see how that could translate to the opposite on estimates.

    Overall I think the changes will be so minimal that the 3PP will mostly remain with all 3 parties within 1% of each other as they are now making it really just as much of a guessing game, but I would have just thought the small adjustments would have gone in the opposite direction based on what changed.

    Windsor is by far the Greens’ best suburb south of the river, while the Fawkner Park / Domain area that Macnamara lost is one of the Liberals’ better areas in that part of the city (albeit still not great).

  40. Victoria has become a much more interesting state as now Bruce, Chisholm, Menzies, McEwen and Aston are all in reach for the LNP to make ground.

  41. Raue can we compare the new wa boundaries based on the 2019 election? just there will be a correction due to unsual swing

  42. @spacefish i think so i also think clare oneill seat of hotham could be more interesting due to her role in recent events.

  43. The Wills changes look catastrophic for Khalil on paper but a lot of those northern ALP votes are very unhappy with him on account of Gaza anyway. His office has been picketed for months and apparently he takes a police escort to the back entrance whenever he visits. So he was sort of caught between a rock and a, well, an uncomfortable place. Greens will probably win the primary vote but it’s still plausible that he hangs on with Liberal preferences.

  46. Redistribution made many more seats with even poorer community of interest than the current boundaries
    – Chisholm now went from a seat with good community of interest to one that will be lacking community of interest (having Malvern and Burwood East in same seat was unthinkable)
    – Similarly. Kooyong would now have a seat that spans from Prahran to Balwyn North
    – Hotham and Issacs has now even less community of interest than they are already lacking

  47. @marh im in agreement on this one thankfully thats what objections are for. ive sent the aec my revised proposal as ana objection also

  48. Despite being notionally Labor, Bullwinkel seems like a good candidate for a Liberal gain with no incumbent to defend it. Unless Tania Lawrence wants to risk her career – is Hasluck safe enough for that?

  49. @john Bullwinkel is a certain liberal gain. the correction in wa will see it won by the libs for sure.

  50. even if Labor could win it this time around i doubt shed want to risk her career as it would most definitely be lost come 2028 especially after 3 years of probable minority govt

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