UK election open thread

Interestingly, under 14 years of Tory rule. The UK made impressive progress on cutting emissions. It became the first G20 to halve emissions from a 1990 baseline and today emissions are 53% lower than in 1990 while the economy has grown 80% over that time. Renewable electricity grew from 7% in 2010 to 50% now. It will be interesting if the Conservatives move to the right on climate if they are concerned about Reform UK. However, that risks not winning back blue wall or affluent inner london seats such as Kensington and Bayswater, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of Westminister and London where the results were quite close and these seats are like Wentworth or Higgins in Australia.

@Nimalan the UK had a centrist coalition partner in the Liberal Democrats in 2010 who pushed for climate action and same-sex marriage legalisation. David Cameron was also quite moderate so he’s a bit like Malcolm Turnbull or Matt Kean in that he supported very socially liberal and pro-climate policies. The UK also has nuclear which is zero-emissions tech and they’re much fitter to abandon coal than Australia for economic reasons (Australia exports heaps of coal, in fact the Port of Newcastle is the largest coal port in the world).

Also, if you’re interested, I did make some preferential voting maps for Scotland and Wales (look at the older comments). I didn’t do England because it’s too many consistencies but if you like I can do just London. Interestingly if you assume that the three major parties preferenced each other ahead of the SNP, Plaid and Alba then under my estimates the SNP would only have one seat in the House of Commons (Perth and Kinross-shire, which would be an ultra-marginal seat, probably only like 0.3% SNP TPP).

*0.3% vs Conservative to be clear

@ NP
Agree David Cameron was quite moderate and was passionate about climate. The Reason i mentioned these affluent seats in inner London is those on the right flank often say such seats should be abandoned. Tim Smith in the article below used the example of the seat of Kensington as an example but i am not sure if that is a good strategy. I do accept it is easier in the UK to reduce emissions than Australia. A map of London will be great and if you can look at those wealthy seats i mentioned and give your thoughts if they can be won back?

https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/05/the-teals-loud-entitled-and-rich/

Nimalan, I believe the strategy of abandoning ‘affluent’ seats where voters are fiscally conservative but socially progressive is quite a poor one. At best it results in a zero-sum outcome, because for the US it appears by pushing a socially conservative stance (Trumpism), the Republicans have lost support in all affluent suburban communities that used to support them quite strongly (key examples like parts of New Jersey that form part of the NYC Metropolitan area and also Orange County, California).

@Nimalan I think yes they can provided they have the right leader and policies. Same as Australia. For example, in Sydney, someone like James Griffin (the state Liberal MP for Manly) could win Warringah and Kellie Sloane (the state Liberal MP for Vaucluse) could win Wentworth.

Some seats might be gone though. For example I don’t see the Liberals regaining Higgins this time unless it sheds Prahran.

Interestingly in the US areas that look like, say, Manly, vote Democrats whereas places like that in Australia and NZ vote conservative (Liberal in Australia and National in NZ). I would say some beachside parts of Cape Town are similar to the Northern Beaches of Sydney and Cape Town votes Democratic Alliance (a centre to centre-right party that is the second-largest political party in South Africa after the centre-left to left-wing ANC and currently controls Western Cape (the province that Cape Town is in) and the Cape Town City Council).

Even in Florida for example Miami votes Democrat. Even though they have a Republican Mayor (Francis Suarez), he’s very much a moderate and would fit with the Liberal Party quite well. For example, while he is fiscally conservative (e.g he strongly supports lower taxes), he’s quite liberal on issues such as climate change, immigration, LGBT and multiculturalism. He criticised climate activists as alarmists but he has taken many measures to combat climate change, he’s supported LGBT pride events (he did however support the original form of the Parental Rights in Education Law (commonly known as the Don’t Say “Gay” Law) but opposed its later , he’s personally opposed to abortion but doesn’t advocate for bans on early abortion and supports exceptions to late abortion bans, and he has called for the US to allow Venezuelan refugees to live in the US (he is of Cuban origin,

Even in Florida for example Miami votes Democrat. Even though they have a Republican Mayor (Francis Suarez), he’s very much a moderate and would fit with the Liberal Party quite well. For example, while he is fiscally conservative (e.g he strongly supports lower taxes), he’s quite liberal on issues such as climate change, immigration, LGBT and multiculturalism. He criticised climate activists as alarmists but he has taken many measures to combat climate change, he’s supported LGBT pride events (he did however support the original form of the Parental Rights in Education Law (commonly known as the Don’t Say “Gay” Law) but opposed its later versions), he’s personally opposed to abortion but doesn’t advocate for bans on early abortion and supports exceptions to late abortion bans, and he has called for the US to allow Venezuelan refugees to live in the US (he is of Cuban origin, and like most people in Miami his first language is Spanish).

I may have posted this comment twice but that was an accident. Sorry.

@ Yoh An
I agree with you i am critic of this strategy as well some other places where the Republicans have lost votes in addition to the ones you mentioned include the affluent suburban communities of Long Island (Nassau County), Collar counties of Chicago, northern Virginia. Oakland County, Michigan and even suburban areas of Dallas and Houston.
@ NP, i agree with you also if Higgins still exists i think it can be won by 2028 even if it includes Prahran and by that time maybe a LIB V GRN seat.

Here’s London under preferential voting: https://jmp.sh/Svh44xga

So I’ve now done London, Scotland and Wales.

@Nether Portal didn’t DeSantis win Miami in 2022 though?

@SCart the Miami metropolitan area (also known as Greater Miami) includes the cities of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. It spans over the three most populous counties of Florida: Miami-Dade County, Broward County and Palm Beach County.

Democratic nominee Charlie Crist won Broward with 57.35% of the vote. Republican nominee and Governor Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade with 55.28% and Palm Beach with 51.21%. So if they were single-member electoral districts elected using preferential voting, Broward would be a fairly safe Democrat seat and Miami-Dade and Palm Beach would be marginal Republican seats, according to those results.

However, 2022 was the first time since 2002 that the Republicans had won Miami-Dade in a Florida gubernatorial election, and it was the first time since 1986 that they had won Palm Beach.

@ NP
Thanks for the Map. Conservatives almost wiped out of London is a concern. Now that Labour has seats in Scotland it will be interesting if they dont bother to sandbag those wealthy inner London seats they just won and maybe it will be the Lib Dems that challenge the Conservatives.

@Nimalan no worries.

The Tories would’ve really benefitted from preferential voting in Wales and they probably would’ve got a few more seats in England (including some in the home counties which are the counties surrounding Greater London). However it benefitted them less in Scotland and it would’ve made almost no impact in London with the exception of the Tories holding Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson’s old seat).

Ben has just said that we can use this thread for the US elections!

So, this is the news:

1. I condemn the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Differences must be resolved at the ballot box, not with violence.
2. Trump has picked Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential nominee.
3. It is very likely that Donald Trump will become the 47th President of the United States, after he was already the 45th President.
4. I am very dissatisfied with both leaders, but I need to make an endorsement. I’ll be waiting to hear from others and hearing more from the campaign before I decide who I’ll be backing. Feel free to persuade me.

Anyway, the elections are on 5 November 2024. That’s every election in the US this year (the presidential election, gubernatorial elections, House elections, Senate elections, state legislative elections, mayoral elections, local elections, the whole lot.

I endorse Donald J. Trump for President in 2024.

@John why?

I’m predicting a red wave btw.

Under Biden america has gone backwards. The economy is getting worse with inflation people arent doing as good as they were when Trump was President and the division in America has only gotten worse fyeled by the democrats and Biden specifically. They have weaponised the juatice system against their politcial opponents. Inyernationally americaa enemies have only been emboldenned by a weak president who allowed Russia to invade Ukraine and Hamas to cmit the horror on oct 7 backed by Iran who america becamek on and gace the billions of dollars to fund terrorist proxies. China is wanting to invade and conquer Taiwan à democratic state
Theb theirs bidens obvious mental decline. He wont see out another term and already has one foot in the grave.

Im predictig a red wave also the one that fa8led in 2022 due to the row v wade decision. I’m expecting the republicans to gain at least 40 seats in the house and to take the Senate as well. I expect the republicans to win anywhere between 35-40 states in the electoral college

@John that’s a reasonable prediction.

I’ll be releasing my Senate endorsement map tomorrow morning. Then will come my endorsement, despite my heavy dissatisfaction with both leaders.

Joe Biden crashed the US economy and is unfit to be President. He’s too old. He’s 81 and can hardly speak a sentence without messing something up and due to America’s healthcare system he may die in office.

Donald Trump on the other hand is just bad for democracy and is mentally unstable. While he’s not that much younger than Biden he’s still more competent in how he speaks and makes his points. Trump relates more to the everyday American than Biden does but he’s still crazy.

I definitely endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, I think I endorsed Trump in 2016 (he was up against Hopeless Hillary, AKA Hillary Clinton) and in 2020 I endorsed Biden. Now I’m making a difficult decision (it’s like that South Park episode where they have to decide between (quite literally) a “giant douche” and a “turd sandwich”).

I have always supported the Coalition in Australian elections, and in British elections I always endorsed the Conservatives to win except in 2024 when I endorsed moderate Conservatives to keep their seats but for Labour and/or the Lib Dems to win as Keir Starmer seemed more charismatic and it was time for change. In South Africa I endorsed the DA and I’ve always endorsed National in New Zealand. In Canada I will be endorsing the Conservatives.

As a side note: National Treasure and former Australian Liberal PM John Howard described Trump as “unfit for office” and has “concerns” about Joe Biden.

Also, spoiler: I have endorsed both Republicans and Democrats for individual Senate races.

Plus I have some where I have no endorsement (yet).

Also I’ve got some gubernatorial maps coming soon.

I think it’s fair criticism to make about the Biden administration’s management of the US domestic economy – if lives in their own country aren’t getting better, or even staying the same as they were beforehand, that’s a very fair critique to make. And yes, there also was the serious bungling when it came to the departure of US troops from Afghanistan, although one might point out it was always going to happen if the Taliban were able to so quickly resume power there, and that perhaps some of the poor policy decisions can be aportioned to the Bush and Obama administrations for going there in the first place, or that they stayed for so long.

But I think it’s pretty ridiculous to suggest that if Trump had gotten a 2nd term, some of the big worldwide geopolitical issues could have been avoided. Hamas along with Iran have always desired to go after Israel – sadly, those terrible events would have happened one way or another. Ukraine was going to happen too sadly, ever since Euromaiden, and the subsequent invasion of Crimea by Russia back in 2014. Some might say the West “forced” Russia into doing it, but no, that was all on Russia led by Putin. Go back 2 decades and when the Baltic states right on the border of Russia joined NATO, Russia did not invade them. The same goes for China – they’ve always desired Taiwan ever since the CCP claimed the mainland, but the recent increased sabre-rattling has been by China under Xi Jinping – you did not see it to this extent under previous Chinese leaders – it’s hard to imagine things would be like this around 2008 with the Beijing Olympics and under Hu Jintao.

Agree with @NP – neither party leader is fit for the office – how can it be that you have all this younger blood in both parties (regardless of your beliefs and which party you support – there should easily be candidates who are part of whichever faction one supports), yet they choose to stick with these 80 year old candidates, and have a repeat of 2020.

Nether Portal, Couldn’t agree with you more on most of what you said.

I think the nail in the coffin is Trump picking an untried, inexperienced and even immature JD Vance. While Kamala Harris is also really bad, I am terrified either of them could be president if either Trump or Biden cannot serve out their terms.

I would love RFK Jr. to win. But It just won’t happen, He could win some counties but a state would be challenging.

As for the UK election, I was absolutely gutted that Moderate Penny Mordaunt lost her seat, she should have become leader, she is leadership material, she is one of the few that could make Labour sweat at the next general election, But Badenoch? They will be lucky to win 200 seats under her neo-fascist approach if her recent comments are anything to go by.

In Canada, Trudeau will lose in a landslide, I want him to lose, I generally don’t like natural governing parties (parties that have been in government more than opposition) because they become complacent and arrogant, The Canadian liberals have always been arrogant and think they can do whatever they want because they assume people won’t vote conservative.

I have respect for the Canadian NDP (but god not under their current leader who is Trudeau’s paper puppet and would make Jack Layton roll in his grave) The Liberals are centre-left and have been in government more than the conservatives which is a stark contrast to most western democracies where usually the conservatives are in power more than not.

Back to the USA, Trump is an absolute appalling dangerous conman, but I absolutely condemn the attempt on his life a few days ago, I don’t agree violence is an answer to stop a candidate, that should be done at the ballot box in private.

I remain defiant and I refuse to support Trump or Biden, I have seen allot of posts online of people attacking people who refuse to choose between the 2 as “wasting their vote” and they attack them for letting the worser option win. This mentality is why I hate the USA electoral system, and exactly why democracy is at threat in that country.

If I was American I would blank my ballot or vote RFK. Jr.

@Daniel T the problem with RFK Jr. is he previously made comments about vaccines causing autism. That’s what would turn me off since I’m autistic myself (and vaccinated obviously, but that doesn’t mean anything), and since both my parents work (or have worked) in medical professions.

And yes, it is unfortunate that Penny Mordaunt lost her seat.

@WL it is very unfortunate that the job of US President is for an old man. Obama wasn’t that old, but Trump and Biden are. Trump is 78 and Biden is 81, and given America doesn’t have free healthcare or a healthcare system that is at our standards, it is very possible that Biden will die in office. If Biden wins he will be 85 when he leaves office and if Trump wins he’ll be 82. Trump can still speak sentences but Biden isn’t a threat to democracy, that’s the puzzling thing.

@John I forgot to mention yes I do wholeheartedly support Taiwan.

Tom Tugendhat is a moderate. He’s still a member of the House of Commons (serving as the MP for Tonbridge in South East England) and he’s a shadow minister. I endorse him for the leadership. Priti Patel (the MP for Whitham) is not leadership material. I didn’t even have a problem with Rishi Sunak ideologically, it’s just that his policies were way too out-of-touch and it was time for change.

This clip reminds me of the US election: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7pfsneLSSM

@np Joe biden wouldn’t die due to americas healthcare system as he’s quite wealthy and can afford the best healthcare money can buy and as president they will be able to gwt him the best drs available. Trump isnt mentally unstable hes just unpredictable whoch can be a good thing as last time Mericas enemies like rusaia China North Korea and iran weren’t willih to cross him for feae of retribution due to his unpredictability. I also support the right side of politics but know we can’t govern forever due to the nature of swing voters. I supported the republicans at every election and same with the tories in the UK. I onew that the labor party wouldwin the last election and just hoped people wouldn’t throw the furniture out to which they inevitably did due to FPTP voting which split the tory vote but im glad Nigel farage got in and tbh never sipported Sunak

It’s official, my maps are out:

Endorsements for the gubernatorial elections: https://jmp.sh/J98xFYQp
Endorsements for the Senate: https://jmp.sh/0PAmteQ9

Solid blue is a Democrat endorsement, solid red is a Republican endorsement. Light blue is no endorsement yet but leaning towards a Democrat endorsement, while light red is no endorsement yet but leaning towards Republican endorsement. Grey is no endorsement yet.

Based on my assessment, I will not be endorsing any candidate, but I would rather a Biden win than a Trump win. Very tough decision. But we all know Trump will win.

NP, Interesting you would rather have Stein than Robinson in NC because NC has elected Democrats for all but 1 term since 1992, and they have effectively ruined the state. I don’t know a single person from North Caroline who like outgoing governor Roy Cooper, the only reason he beat an incumbent Republican in 2016 was because he wasn’t “Pat McCrory”

As for the senate, I would absolutely love Larry Hogan to win that senate seat in Maryland, but unfortunately he has no chance, he is a decent Republican and I absolutely would volunteer for his camp if I lived in the USA, he was a brilliant governor of Maryland (was the first Republican to win back to back wins since 1954 in Maryland) it’s a shame voters in Maryland put party over principle because if they didn’t, Hogan would win hands down.

Truth is Hogan can’t win with Trump on the ballot, but I would be interested in hearing how many % he losses by. I predict he losses by around 8-points which would be the best performance for a Republican since 1980 (which was the last time a Republican was elected to the senate in the state of Maryland) and eclipsing Michael Steeles 10-point loss in a Blue-wave year of 2006 to current senator Ben Cardin (fun-fact, some polls had Steele within a few points of Cardin, it was surprising competitive in Maryland and New Jersey senate races in 2006)

@Daniel T the North Carolina Republican candidate Mark Robinson. He ticks the diversity box (he’s African American) but he has previously made antisemitic and anti-LGBT remarks including Holocaust denial (he since apologised for his antisemitic and homophobic remarks and now supports Israel). He opposes abortion and promotes climate change denial.

As for Larry Hogan I would also love for him to win in Virginia but unfortunately he won’t.

I also endorse moderate Republican Phil Scott to be re-elected as Governor of Vermont. He’s quite popular up there and has won again and again in landslides because he has a centre-right approach and good policies. Republicans attack him outside the northeast, but he still stands (partially thanks to a left-wing alliance between the Vermont Democrats and the socialist Progressive Party which is out of touch). Phil Scott actually voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

It’s also a shame Mitt Romney isn’t running for another Senate term in Utah. He was always a good moderate, centre-right, liberal conservative and anti-Trumpist voice in the Republican Party.

the upcoming senate battle is more risky for the dems as they have 23 senators up for election as opposed to 11 republicans

Agree John, Dems are almost certain to lose one seat (West Virginia) with Joe Manchin retiring. Two others are close calls with Republicans a decent chance of winning (Ohio and Montana).

Republicans may also have a shot at picking up the open seat in Michigan (with Debbie Stabenow retiring).

I think FiveThirtyEight somewhat overstates Biden’s chances. Maybe Ben can help us out here considering he is a psephologist similar to Nate Silver, Why do forecasters have Biden (even though you could argue it’s 50/50, if you look at their current forecast they mostly seem to have Biden with more scenarios than not winning) 51-55% chance they usually give him, Why? I would counter 538’s forecast as much respect I have for you psephologist’s as….

1) Incumbency won’t necessarily help Biden because we all know what happened to Trump 4 years ago, and more and more people are voting out incumbent government’s around the world, often in landslides (obviously it won’t be a landslide in this race)

2) The polls have either Trump leading or tied nationally, Many psephologist’s said that Biden needs to win the popular vote by around 3-5% to win the electoral college. Are they saying now that Biden somehow is doing better in the EC than Democrats would normally do with this level of support (2016 and 2020) nationally? and if so, why is that? what evidence is there to suggest Biden is doing better in the EC when history says it favors Republican candidates?

3) If it is the case that it is being assumed the polls are underestimating Biden, why? other than the 2022 midterms (which wasn’t a presidential election), Democratic presidential candidates often get overestimated with the exceptions of 2008 and 2012 in the last 40 years or so.

4) The ”fundamentals” such as the economy are not going well for Biden, The economy is not much better than it was 4 years ago, even if it is said that voters aren’t blaming Biden for it, what evidence is there to suggest they aren’t?

5) Why do most of the bookies favor Trump (which reflects the polls) but psephologist’s such as Nate Silver don’t?

I am not a psephologist like you Ben or Nate Silver, not even close to it, I just ask to understand (although you aren’t as knowledgeable of US elections as Nate Silver and maybe even Antony Green), You still know much more than most of us on this site.

I am just confused why Biden’s chances are so high of winning re-election despite his approval ratings and the factors I said.

@Daniel T not sure why but the bookies and polls are definitely favouring Trump.

According to The Economist, Trump’s polling an average vote of 46% while Biden’s average is 44%.

The Economist also has a “build a voter” feature. The most right-wing, Trumpist voter would be a straight White non-Latino Evangelical Christian male aged 75 or over from rural Louisiana whose highest education level was high school. This person would have a 90% chance of voting for Trump (compared to 92% in 2020), a swing of +2% to Joe Biden.

It’s a very interesting tool and a similar tool for Australia would be cool. Have a look at it here: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/build-a-voter/

The most left-wing, Bidenist voter on the other hand would be a Black atheist lesbian with a postgraduate degree aged between 18-24 from Washington DC.

Edit for the right-wing voter: change the state from Louisiana to Oklahoma and he’s 92% likely to vote for Trump, compared to 94% in 2020.

As for the leftist, she has a 99% chance of voting for Biden, and in Australia she would vote for either the Greens or a very progressive Labor candidate.

@nether are you kidding? Biden has a better chance at being propsed to by Trump on election night.

Also I don’t think Piers Morgan is a Biden voter 😆

@ Nether Portal
Thank you very much for sharing the tool. I wish there was one for Australia. Hispanics are often homogenized by the media however, there is quite a lot of diversity. For example, on the tool you shared you can see how white latinons/Non-White Latinos differ all else being equal and difference is voting patterns between Protestant and Catholic Latinos. Cuban Americans have generally been Republican voting.

@Nimalan they may be homogenised but there is a difference between White and non-White Hispanics. In fact Hispanic actually just means Hispanophone which means Spanish-speaking, so someone from Spain who speaks Spanish as their first language is just as Hispanic as someone from Mexico or Argentina or Colombia or any other Latin American community.

It is also interesting that Cuban Americans mostly vote Republican even though most other Latino Americans vote Democrats. It’s the same with Vietnamese Americans, they mostly vote Republican even though most other Asian Americans vote Democrat. Perhaps it’s due to anti-communism, since Cuba and Vietnam are both communist countries due to the Cuban Revolution and the Vietnam War, respectively. Or maybe it’s just where they live (over 70% of Cuban Americans live in Florida and most Vietnamese Americans live in California, a Democrat state, and Texas, a Republican state though its major cities (Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin) have Democratic representatives and mayors).

I wonder if, similarly, most Japanese Australians and Brazilian Australians vote Liberal since they often live on the Gold Coast which is heavily LNP-voting.

There is a base of republican voters which is not enough to win. The polls
In 2022 universally voted against the Trump endorsed candidates..the only one to win in that category was jd Vance and that was only because of the nature of Ohio a 8% margin.. The key to the election for president is Arizona Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.. all of which will be won by the democrat candidates for the senate.. Biden or whoever is the democrat candidate have a good Chance. Trump has a “little ” baggage to say the least.

Daniel t… refer yr point 2.. Biden does not need to even win the popular vote to win the EC..see my analysis above

Unfortunately, for America and the rest of us, given what Trump has been through and to be able to conjure that much popularity, plus Biden’s stunning arrogance and evident signs of faltering, barring something that completely goes out of whack, I think Trump’s definitely in the White House come January next year. If Biden (or Harris) runs that’s the definitive outcome. If they choose someone completely new they could probably sandbag and salvage a number of their ‘looser’ Democrat base states but they don’t decide the election.

If Democrats come to their senses and get Biden to drop out for a combination like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer (from Michigan, one of the key swing states), they’ll at least be able to prevent a Carter/Mondale style defeat back in the 80s. If they don’t then the Republicans are going to eat them alive without even trying this time round. Trump is all piss and wind but people thinks he’s the messiah or something with all his race-baiting, dog-whistling focus on immigration and revenge stuff. The electoral mood in America is certainly not getting better and I for one am glad I’m not part of that political dystopia.

I think most of the Vietnamese Americans who vote Republican are migrants/refugees who left South Vietnam during or following the Vietnam War and so have a bitter hatred of the regime there and view politics through that anti-communism lens. Cold War rhetoric probably also pushed said voters in such a direction too – i.e. tarring left leaning parties (aka the Democrats in the US) as having “communist” policies or being seen as “soft on communist regimes”. Similarly for Cuban Americans, and I’d also imagine similar for people who fled the former Eastern Bloc.

That being said though, it’s an interesting comparison to say…the Australian Vietnamese community, where they largely live in working class suburbs and largely vote Labor or independent in the case of Dai Le.

Despite being a communist country, Vietnam itself is considered a US partner geopolitically, and if you were to ever visit Vietnam, you’d find the Vietnamese there are very open to visitors from the West. If anything, they detest China a lot more than they do the West.

@WL yes I have visited Vietnam and yes they are a US/Australian ally. They hate China because of China’s territorial claim of the South China Sea which is Vietnam’s coastline and it touches many other countries including China and Taiwan. They even banned the Barbie movie because of a map that showed the nine-dash line (China’s unrecognised claim of the entire South China Sea).

They also banned Uncharted and Abominable due to these maps too.