UK election open thread

The Conservatives have also failed to increase their vote share in any seat in Great Britain. In Northern Ireland, where their presence is limited and they have no seats, so far they have gained ground in three seats: Newry and Armagh, South Down and West Tyrone.

If the Conservatives are to win any seats in Wales, they must hold the rural seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.

BREAKING: GREENS GAIN NORTH HEREFORDSHIRE FROM TORYS

Meanwhile Labour has gained Cities of London and Westminster.

There’s actually no frigging way they just won that seat. North Herefordshire? Last time they got 9.3% of the vote and the Torys got 63.0%.

Correction: Monmouthshire is also a potential Conservative hold in Wales.

BREAKING: KEIR STARMER IS SPEAKING

BREAKING: LIB DEMS GAIN RURAL TORY SEAT IN WALES

The Torys have lost the seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe in southeastern Wales to the Lib Dems. The final seat to be called in Wales is Monmouthshire, a Conservative-held seat also in southeastern Wales. If the Conservatives lose Monmouthshire, they will have no seats in Wales.

Fpp is an unfair system as it accentuates the winner ‘s
Bonus. Basically labour were competitive in seats up to 20% margin. Roughly Labor 40% conservatives 20% this would come close to determining the aggregate result

@Mick Quinlivan which is why in Australia we have preferential voting.

BREAKING: CONSERVATIVES WIPED OUT IN WALES

Every seat in Wales has now been called. Labour has claimed the final seat, gaining Monmouthshire from the Conservatives. The Conservatives now have no Westminster seats in Wales.

Lib Dem gained another seat of SNP North East Fife

Tom Tugendhat, a moderate Conservative, has comfortably retained his seat of Tonbridge despite a big swing against him.

The SNP has gained Aberdeenshire North and Moray East from the Conservatives.

Former Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross defeated after failed switch to Westminster.

The Torys are doing very badly in Greater London. Only a handful of seats in London are still blue.

Lib Dems gain Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross from SNP

I believe under preferential voting (not so much OPV), the Conservatives could have salvaged a few more seats and made the Labour majority narrower. Some of their losses could have benefitted from favorable preference flows. Aberdeenshire North (the only SNP gain so far) could have been retained as Labour preferences might flow more strongly to the Conservatives instead of SNP and also Anglesey (Ynys Mon) in Wales where Labour voters may also preference the Conservatives ahead of Plaid Cymru.

@Yoh An I agree. But Labour still would’ve likely won Monmouthshire.

Also, the constituency is called Ynys Môn, which is the Welsh name for the island of Anglesey, but in English it isn’t translated when talking about the constituency.

Tories held onto a second seat in Scotland Gordon and Buchan.

The most disproportionate UK general election of all time thanks to FPTP!

In addition to being the closest blue seat to the red and orange cities of Liverpool and Manchester (also home to Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, three of the Premier League’s biggest and most successful clubs), Fylde is also now the only blue seat on the west coast of Britain.

Greens gain Waveney Valley from Conservatives, second regional gain for some reason (after North Herefordshire).

When the election is done, should I do a map showing the results under preferential voting? I feel like that would be interesting.

This election shows how much FPTP distorts the results, as Labour are projected to win only 35% of the primary vote, not much greater than the 32% achieved by the ALP under Albanese for 2022 and yet will have a huge majority on par with WA 2021 or NT 2016. For those elections, the Labor primary vote was much higher (58% for WA and 42% for NT). Even Coalition landslides in NSW 2011 and Queensland 2012 saw them achieve close to or over 50% primary votes.

I think North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley are rural “tree Tory” seats – conservative, but willing to vote Greens for local/environmental reasons.

The Muslim vote is very interesting. There are double digit swings AWAY from Labour in Slough and the western boroughs of London like Brent East/West. A lot of those lost votes went to independents (presumably pro-Palestine), Greens and Workers parties. The swings away from Conservatives saved Labour.

@Ian so like teals?

Ian/NP, those two seats are probably more like areas such as Byron, Noosa or Margaret River in Australia that have a strong alternative lifestyle (hippie) culture and where the Greens are strong, often making the 2CP count instead of Labor.

Probably NP and this article talks about it; although, the UK teal equivalent are more like the Liberal Democrats.
https://archive.is/IZvMT

@Ian oh I see.

@Yoh An yeah that was I what I thought, they’d be like Byron Bay-type areas.

The Torys have three seats in Scotland.

Tories held onto West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine in Scotland but lost David Cameron’s former seat of Witney to the Lib Dems

Siân Berry has held her seat of Brighton-Pavillion for the Greens, despite a 2% swing against her.

Meanwhile, yet another Cabinet minster (Michael Tomlinson) has been unseated.

Brighton will not have a significant Muslim community so Palestine like the rural seats would not have been an issue unlike Poplar and Limehouse or some of the Birmingham seats.

I’m still shocked that the Torys have no Westminster seats in Wales. Meanwhile, the Welsh Conservatives are slowly making gains in Senedd and local elections in Wales.

@ NP
Mid Wales used to be good for Libs Dems so i am not surprised they picked up a seat. I think vote splitting between Reform and Tories hurt in Monmouthshire but nevertherless it is not a good look not to have any representation in Wales.

The Lib Dems will have the best ever result since David Lloyd George was the last Liberal PM. They will definitely win Orkney and Sheltland which is yet to declare and one of their safest seats and probably some more in Cornwall.

Labour is getting absolutely decimated in heavily Muslim areas. Pretty much all have about 30% independent/workers vote and a big increase in the Greens vote and a massive swing against the Labor. FPTP and a split vote is saving Labour big time here.

Think Labor getting 30% primary vote in places like Blaxland and Watson, that’s what’s happening there.

Important to remember that most Muslims in the UK are South Asian not Arab as well

BREAKING: LIZ TRUSS LOSES SEAT

Former Conservative PM Liz Truss, who served 44 days in office, has lost her seat.

so is Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead.

The old seats of Conservative PMs Margaret Thatcher, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss are now Labour seats.

David Cameron’s and Theresa May’s former seats went to the Liberal Democrats.

It appears a repeat of the Australia 2022 result where the Liberals lost many heartland seats (Wentworth, Warringah, Higgins and Kooyong), mostly to the teal independents who are functionally equivalent to the UK Lib Dems being socially progressive but economically centrist in nature.

Labour’s nationwide vote is barely above their 2019 result, which was a disaster back then. I guess it was tactical voting for Lib Dems and Reform splitting the big three parties’ vote.

Labour’s vote went backwards in England overall, especially in London, Manchester and Birmingham. The red wave in Scotland propped up the Labour vote.

Who do you think will win the Richmond & Northallerton by-election since Sunak is quitting? I think the Lib Dems or Reform will win it.

@Votante thanks for the correction.

@Ian I agree either Reform or the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives probably won’t win it but they’ll finish second, so definitely ahead of Labour.

@Votante it’s really weird because Labour underperformed a lot in terms of vote share but in terms of seat totals they overperformed a bit. Labour’s vote only went up like 2% nationwide but the Tory vote dropped over 20% in terms of the swing. Yet Labour has won one of the biggest landslides ever in British history.

Why is it taking so damn long to call the last couple of seats in Scotland? England is almost done, Wales has been done for hours, and there’s only one seat left to be counted in Northern Ireland.