UK election open thread

@Nimalan @Spacefish agreed.

As for the poll, YouGov predicts:

Votes:
Labour: 39% (+6.9%)
Conservatives: 22% (–21.6%)
Reform: 15% (+13.0%; compared to the Brexit Party)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (+0.4%)
Greens: 7.0% (+6.8%)

So it looks like the Conservative vote is dropping massively but not all of it’s going to Labour.

Seats:
Labour: 431 (+226)
Conservative: 102 (–242)
Liberal Democrats: 72 (+57)
SNP: 18 (–25)
Reform: 3 (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (±0)
Greens: 2 (+1)

The seat totals are compared to those when Parliament was dissolved on 30 May.

@Marh exactly which is why I say him and his ideology (known as Putinism) is its own classification.

The poll I linked is predicted that Nigel Farage will win Clacton for Reform and that Reform will also gain the constituencies of Ashfield and Great Yarmouth from the Conservatives.

It also predicts that in addition to the Greens holding Brighton Pavillion, they will also gain Bristol Central from Labour.

There will also be a swing against the Conservatives in literally every constituency.

Note that the poll didn’t include Northern Ireland, only Great Britain itself (England, Scotland and Wales).

UUP + 3 (North Down from Alliance, South Antrim from DUP,and Fermanagh & South Tyrone from SF).

i think the labor vote might be over inflated i reckon they will still win but maybe not as much as the polls are suggesting

not related even though you said you werent covering it could we get a US election thread to post in?

@John I was going to ask for that but I was gonna wait a few months. But of course it’s Ben’s decision and I’d be happy to contribute at any time.

COUNTDOWN TO THE CLOSE OF POLLS:

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20240704T22&p0=136&msg=2024+UK+general+election&font=slab

Polls close at 10:00pm BST, which is 7:00am AEST.

Question: similar to how there was a Muslim and progressive protest vote against Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries in the US, will there be a similar phenomenon this time in the UK?

If so, I assume it would go to George Galloway’s Worker’s Party, the one that won the seat of Rochdale in Manchester from Labour in a by-election earlier this year.

Nearly 7% of British people are Muslims and around 12% of Londoners are Muslim.

One constituency with a high Muslim population is Poplar and Limehouse in London, which is represented by Labour MP Apsana Begum (who is Muslim). Could she lose to Kamran Khan, who is the Worker’s Party’s candidate? Will George Galloway hold Rochdale, which also has a very high Muslim population?

I’m curious for any thoughts on this.

@ NP
I am not confident enough to make an accurate prediction but there are some key differences between Poplar and Limehouse and Rochdale despite both having large Muslim populations.
1. Poplar and Limehouse is gentrifying and actually includes Canary Wharf and prime riverfront developments. I expect this area to become less Muslim overtime it will also have many yuppies, it is more socially progressive these days and Workers Party will not appeal to non Muslims in the area who increasingly affluent
2. Rochdale more working class here George Galloway tries to appeal to white working class people as well advocating a hardline stance on immigration etc. The Labor candidate was dis endorsed at the by-election, this team will be harder for Galloway

@Nimalan interesting. So Poplar and Limehouse is comparable to, say, Grayndler, in that it has both affluent and working-class areas that are both progressive?

@ NP
Poplar and Limehouse would be like drawing a seat that includes Southbank/Docklands in Melbourne and then including a lot of public housing estates with ethnic communities. I am not sure if there really is an Australian example because Grayndler still is no where near as dense and Inner London and it much less diverse. Canary Wharf is relatively new but a lot of Finance companies have moved there so thats why i use the Southbank/Docklands comparison.

Agree with @Furtive Lawngnome’s comments. The only other point I would raise is how this election will make it quite obvious just how poor and unfair FPTP and majoritarian systems are. The most recent YouGov poll is suggesting Labor will win 431 seats (66% of the seats) even though they are only polling around 40%. Meanwhile Reform UK is getting 15-20% but may only win 3 seats according to YouGov (0.5% of the seats). Then you have the Lib Dems polling the same as Reform UK yet Lib Dems are on track for 24 times more seats.

The result of Reform UK being shafted by the electoral system, as well as the general malaise that will likely result from Keir Starmer’s do-nothing centrism approach, will likely embolden Reform UK and I think we will see an increase in their polling following the election after Labour’s honeymoon, particularly if Nigel Farage wins Clacton. Hopefully the Lib Dems push proportional representation, but given they’re now going to, for once, enjoy the benefits of a FPTP/majoritarian system, they may very well do little about advancing PR, not that they’d have any power to do anything anyway, given Labour’s undeserved supermajority.

I rarely comment on here, but just thought I’d throw in my prediction of 16 seats effectively chosen randomly to represent particular demographics, I’ve tried to factor in demographics for each of these, but by and large guesswork, and more than happy to be proven wrong:

Greenwich and Woolwich
Inner-London seat, gentrifying:
LAB 58.0 (+2.9)
CON 12.4 (-10.4)
REF 6.7 (+4.4)
WPB 6.3 (New)
LD 5.9 (-8.5)
Green 5.6 (+0.9)

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West:
Traditional urban Labour, northern and one of first seats to declare
LAB 53.7 (-3.4)
REF 16.0 (+7.5)
CON 12.8 (-13.8)
Ind (Ridley) 6.2 (New)
Ind (Rahman) 4.6 (New)
LD 3.5 (-1.4)

Clacton
Sea Wall, Nigel Farage
Reform 38.7 (New)
CON 30.1 (-41.8)
LAB 20.1 (+4.5)
LD 4.8 (-1.3)
GRN 3.9 (+1.1)

Godalming and Ash
Southern Blue Wall, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt contesting
LD 42.3 (+9.1)
CON 36.9 (-18.9)
Reform 10.5 (New)
LAB 5.2 (-1.9)

Hitchin
Another classic Southern England seat
LAB 36.0 (+12.1)
CON 28.6 (-21.5)
LD 20.0 (-3.4)
Reform 7.1 (New)

Henley and Thame
Another Blue Wall seat, formerly held by Boris Johnson and Michael Heseltine
LD 44.5 (+12.7)
CON 36.0 (-18.4)
Reform 8.9 (New)
LAB 5.0 (-4.3)

Castle Point
Brexity, voted for Blair in ’97, sea wall
CON 36.9 (-39.4)
Reform 29.9 (New)
LAB 26.0 (+9.0)
LD 4.8 (-1.9)
Green 2.5 (New)

Aberdeen South
Rural Scotland, held by Stephen Flynn, leader of SNP in the Commons
SNP 32.8 (-13.1)
CON 21.3 (-12.4)
LAB 19.7 (+10.8)
LD 8.1 (-2.4)
Reform 7.6 (+7.2)
Green 5.8 (+5.2)

East Lothian
Top Scottish Labour target, Douglas Alexander returning to politics
LAB 38.7 (+8.8)
SNP 21.4 (-13.8)
CON 16 (-11.5)
Reform 7.4 (New)
Alba 6.1 (New)
LD 6.0 (-0.7)

Rochdale
George Galloway contesting
LAB 32.4 (-18.2)
WPB 24.0 (New)
Reform 19.5 (+11.0)
CON 15.6 (-16.0)
Green 3.2 (+1.2)

Witney
David Cameron’s former seat
LD 38.2 (+10.5)
CON 36.8 (-20.9)
LAB 9.5 (-4.8)
Reform 8.9 (New)

Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Tony Blair’s former seat, classic Red Wall
LAB 45.0 (+4.4)
CON 22.7 (-21.4)
REF 21.1 (+13.6)
LD 4.8 (-1.0)

South West Norfolk
Liz Truss
CON 33.3 (-35.3)
LAB 27.5 (+9.1)
REF 21.8 (New)
LD 5.9 (-2.3)
GRN 4.55 (+1.55)

Watford
Home county bellwether
LAB 47.0 (+8.6)
CON 25.7 (-18.4)
LD 13.6 (-3.0)
Reform 8.5 (New)

Selby
Typical English market town
LAB 47.0 (+16.5)
CON 29.1 (-26.7)
Reform 12.3 (New)
LD 5.8 (-1.9)
GRN 5.8 (+2.7)

Islington North
Jeremy Corbyn’s inner-London electorate
LAB 37.4 (-26.9)
Ind Corbyn 29.8 (New)
LD 12.8 (-2.8)
GRN 7.3 (-0.7)
CON 6.4 (-3.8)
Oth 6.2

Polls Closed! exit Poll releases for GB only
Lab 410
Con 131
Lib Dem 61
Reform 13
SNP 10
PC 4
Green 2

Surprised Farage got so many.

Let’s see what carnage FPTP causes and 2024 will be the most disproportionate of all UK elections.

Houghton & Sunderland South becomes the first seat to be declared. Labour win, no surprises there

Houghton & Sunderland South with Reform coming second which is bad news for the Conservatives.

Where are the results coming from?

That seat is in the North East which while Labor held already is demographically Red Wall. Tories lost votes to both Labour and Reform.

The first results from Houghton and Sunderland South are bad for the Conservatives. Obviously Labour retained it but the Conservative vote is down to 13.8%, a swing of –19.1% against them. Most of that is going to Labour and (to a greater extent it seems) Reform.

@Nimalan oh okay but I meant which website but thanks for that I didn’t actually know where it was either to be honest. I haven’t been to the UK in a few years.

Second seat called!

Blyth and Ashington in North East England has been called for Labour.

North East England seems to have the quickest count for some reason. Not sure why since all of the UK is on the same time zone (other than its overseas territories, which, unlike France’s overseas territories, don’t have parliamentary representation).

I’m expecting some Tory to Reform swings to be bigger than Tory to Labour swings in Brexity electorates outside London and the Home Counties. Houghton and Sunderland South is an example. The precursor to Reform, the Brexit Party, had a suppressed vote due to Boris Johnson’s Get Brexit Done platform.

@Votante the exit polls are saying that about half of the swinging Conservative vote will go to Reform, then another almost half will go to Labour. The rest will go to the Liberal Democrats and some random local independents.

Callingthe election for labor

interestingly the Brexit party offered Boris Johnson a pact last time in seats that Tories already held so Red Wall seats Theresa May picked up in 2017 will have Reform UK for the first time.

More seats should come in soon. We need some results from Conservative-held seats to come in to see what’s happening before I can call it, even though we know Labour are winning easily.

Where can I get live results for each constituency? I’ve been trying to get stuff from Wikipedia but the editors seem to be too busy fussing about other shit than actually declaring seats.

Never mind I found it.

@ NP
Can you share the link

@Nimalan sure.

Link: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/04/uk-general-election-results-2024-live-in-full

Two seats called so far.

You can click on any constituency and it will say the candidates, results (when available) and when the result is expected (UK time).

It looks like northern Scotland will have the last results, with some seats not expected to be declared until around 5:30am or even 6:00am UK time.

There may be a few surprise Tory retains if the votes are split between LD, Labour and Reform. It will be interesting to see where there’s tactical voting amongst LD and Labour voters.

Great thanks NP

@Votante I agree. Any guesses as to which seats though?

@Nimalan no worries. The count is very slow though.

Looking at the constituencies map reminds me that there are some interesting names for them. Imagine being the MP for Penistone and Stockbridge or the MP for Scunthorpe, for example.

THIRD SEAT CALLED!

Sunderland Central has been called for Labour.

First Flip of the night Cons loose Swindon South to Labout

* Labour

The Conservative vote is way down in Swindon South. The swing is –24.7% against the Tories.

Labour has retained Washington and Gateshead South.

Labour has retained Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central and West.

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West the Labour Party has suffered -13.6 swing against them, Reform has been performing well with Labour in trouble in certain seats from Reform.

@ Space Fish
In Newcastle Upon Central and West
There was a Pro Palestine independent (Yvonne Ridley) and Labour lost votes to the Greens as well. I think Reform in only picking up some 2019 Tory voters rather than 2019 Labour voters. I think we will see Labour loose votes to Pro-Palestine candidates in many areas.

Labour has also retained Wickham.