I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
UK election open thread
I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
Britain, it’s time. Time for change. The Conservatives need a fresh start with a new leader after the election. A new, more moderate leader. A leader who can appeal to both the city and the country, to all of the UK and to all Britons in all countries, counties, constituencies and overseas territories. No conscription. No internal civil wars. No bullshit. Just policies that can appeal to everyone. For this to happen, the party needs a clean out.
For the first time ever, I have decided to endorse the Tories to LOSE the election, but I still hope that the exceptionally good Conservative MPs retain their seats so one of them becomes leader and helps rebuild the party. But the UK still can’t risk Labour, the Greens, the Workers Party (George Galloway) or Reform (Nigel Farage). The Liberal Democrats may be the only sensibly centrist or moderate option in many constituencies.
Interestingly Sportsbet predicts that it is more likely for Reform UK to win the election than the Conservatives, though Labor are obviously still the heavy favourites by a long way.
Also upcoming is the French election. The first round is on 30 June and the second round is on 7 July.
For that election, based on policies I back the centrist Renaissance (formerly La République en Marche; yellow) party of Emmanuel Macron, but particularly I back its centre-right, liberal conservative ally Horizons (blue) which is close to the moderate/centre-right Liberals in Australia. Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem (the Democratic Movement (Mouvement démocrate), another centre to centre-right party; orange) form a liberal political alliance called Together (Ensemble in French).
The other major alliances/parties are the centre-left to far-left New Popular Front (essentially a broad left bloc, the main parties being La France Insouminese (left-wing, democratic socialism; purple), The Ecologists (left-wing, green politics; green), Socialist Party (Parti socialiste; centre-left, social democracy; red) and the Communist Party (Parti communiste; far-left, communism; red)), National Rally (Rassemblement National (RN); Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party, like One Nation in Australia or the Trumpist Republicans in the US; navy blue) and The Republicans (Les Républicains; liberal conservatism, centre-right to right-wing; blue).
Unfortunately I couldn’t make it to France this time though nor could I make it to Europe in general for the European Parliament elections. (One of my friends in France is working in Horizons’ campaign.)
@Nether Portal nah. I’m generally to the right but I agree that only Starmer can save the UK. Plus, unlike Albo, it’s clear that Starmer doesn’t just masquerade as a centrist, he’s genuinely pragmatic.
@ Scart/Nether Portal
The best hope to ensure that Starmer remains centrist/pragmatic in government is if Labor wins back as many of the traditional Red Wall seats as possible and does not soley depend on young renters, university towns and poorer ethnic communities. I do agree with NP that the best hope long term for the Tories is a clean out and have fresh leadership not shackled by the last 14 years of chaos.
@Nimalan they’ll win back every red wall seat, and then some.
@ Scart
Yes that is the best hope for a Centrist Labor government and that is what the projections currently say as well.
Tories are even at risk of losing to the Lib Dems for Opposition.
I would also add Rishi Sunak IMV is a bit of a Nanny state proponent with the smoking ban. This is something the New Centre Right Government scrapped. It goes against the belief in individual freedom
Starmer is almost just as bad as Sunak. he will be bad for britain. what they need is a Farage Prime ministership
@ John
Farage agrees with me on the smoking ban being stupid see below. He also opposes Conscription.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/j85JKcWQNGc
* new Centre Right Government in NZ i mean.
The smoking ban is stupid. Saying that someone born in 2009 can’t buy tobacco products but someone born in 2008 can is ridiculous. But I still don’t think Farage should become PM, he’s too extreme from what I know.
Farage is to the right of the conservatives…. suspect he is standing to stuff up things for them. He will only take votes off them… under fpp…. there is a big winner bonus.
@mick that speaks volumes how the tories have abandoned their base.
@NP i hear starmer is the same but to the left. we all know that reducing the voting age to 16 is desgined to incresae votes for the left. they claim its because if you pay taxes you should vote, well why not extend the logic to smokng and drinking, gambling etc. young people would overwhelmgly increase his base and thats what its designed for not some selfless act
Farage claims his motive is to eventually merge Reform and Conservative Party by citing the Canada case which is obviously a false equivalence as The Conservative merge in Canada was just remerging the split in 1990s between Progressive Conservatives and Reform Party of Canada but Farage’s Reform was split for UKIP (due to Tommy Robinson joining) and British Conservatives never splitted
Election very close! The election will be on 4 July.
These next few days will be the last four days of the 14-year Conservative government. Counting today there are four more days until the election (note that it’s on UK time), so four more days until Labour wins a historic landslide.
Will the Conservatives be able to form opposition? I’m interested to hear some thoughts as forming a credible opposition will be the biggest task for the Conservatives.
Also, will Rishi Sunak hold his seat?
BREAKING: Sportsbet has the odds for Labour winning the most seats at $1.005 (roughly equal to a 99.95% chance of Labour winning the most seats). Additionally, Sportsbet has a Labour majority government at $1.01 (99.01% chance).
It’s over. Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister. It would take an absolute miracle for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives to win, but even that seems impossible.
Its is getting closer and closer to D Day. I am interested to know the following
1. Will Labor win all the Red Wall back or will Reform or Tories win a couple
2. How well will the Libs Dems do
3. The Results in Scotland-Will Labor win more than the SNP.
@Nimalan:
1. Probably
2. Better than last time, might pick up some moderate Conservative voters in seats with unpopular right-wing MPs (like how in Sydney the North Shore and Northern Beaches elect teals on the federal level and Liberals on the state level)
3. Yes
Three other questions:
1. Will the Conservatives win any seats in Scotland and/or Wales?
2. Who will be the next Conservative leader?
3. Will Rishi Sunak win his seat?
Just a reminder: polls close and counting begins at 10:00pm UK time on 4 July. Results should come in soon after that.
For us at the Tally Room, that’s equivalent to:
* NZST (NZ): 10:00am
* AEST (NSW/VIC/QLD/TAS/ACT): 8:00am
* ACST (SA/NT/Broken Hill): 7:30am
* ACWST: (Eucla and surrounds): 6:45am
* AWST (WA): 6:00am
So if anyone in WA wants to look at the results from the start then they need to wake up a bit earlier than normal.
Conversely, those in SA and the NT can do it whilst eating brekky and those in the eastern states like myself (as well as those in PNG, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Norfolk Island) can do it just after breakfast (unless you’re having a late brekky). Those in NZ, Fiji and the rest of the Pacific however have a bit more time.
Oh I forgot to say for us it’s not tomorrow of course it’s on 5 July in Australia and the wider Asia-Pacific region.
@ NP
1. Interestingly, Conservatives were wiped out in 1997 in Scotland and Wales this time there are are expected to win a couple. In Scotland, it maybe the case that in some Tory held seats Lib Dem/Labour voters will vote tactically Tory when the main competition is SNP in some seats. Pro-Union voters hate the SNP and plans for another indyref
2. Possible next leaders are Suella Braverman, Penny Mordaut
3. Possibly but not confident enough to make a prediction.
@Nimalan interestingly during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum the successful Better Together campaign was formed with the support of the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats (the three major parties in the UK and the three major pro-union/anti-independence parties in Scotland).
On issues other than wanting Scotland to become its on country, the SNP is progressive and is on the centre-left or left-wing of the political spectrum.
Fun fact: despite Russia supporting Brexit and Trump, Russia also supported Scottish independence.
Blue Wall seats will be interesting to watch. Swings might be large enough for Labour to pick up some of them. The Lib Dems have some potential in upper-class and/or pro-EU seats and even pro-Brexit seats. Add to that Reform UK can split the Tory vote and create Labour or Lib Dem victories. The Greens are another one to watch – they could pick up a seat and come second in a few others.
One more question though: how many (if any) seats will Reform win? Will Nigel Farage won Clacton (the seat he’s contesting)?
Sunak should just pull a Zak Kirkup and just say he won’t win. I understand if you’re only behind by 10 points. But even if Keir Starmer was accused of sexual assault or killed his dog he’d still win. Sunak is in flipping denial. He should admit defeat now.
It won’t worsen the defeat because even most diehard tory voters know they will lose.
Would it be fear to compare the teal independents to the Lib Dems in the UK in terms of ideology and voter base and geography?
fair
@CG Yes, both are radical centrist parties that target wealthy Tory seats.
@Nether Portal I think Farage will win Clacton. I think Reform will have between 5 and 10 seats, the Tories between about 50 and 130 seats, the Lib Dems between about 40 and 70 seats, and Labour between 400 and 500 seats.
@Nether Portal
1. Yes. Labour wiped them out in Scotland and Wales in ’97 because they were promising devolution, plus the Tories weren’t as focused on working class voters in ’97 compared to now. It won’t happen here.
2. Kemi Badenoch or maybe Priti Patel. I think Mordaunt will probably lose her seat.
3. Barring a total wipeout, yes. His seat is *the* safest Tory seat in the North of England.
Prediction at this rate:
Labour 400 – 450 seats
Conservatives 50 – 110 seats
Lib Dem 40 – 80 seats
SNP 0 – 25 seats
Reform 0 – 7 seats
Green 1 – 7 seats
@ NP
Yes Russia supports Scottish independence to weaken the west.
@ CG the Lib Dems usually do well in affluent, educated areas. However, for some reason some of their strongholds include Shetland and Orkney islands which are perhaps the most isolated constituency and has Nordic heritage
@Daniel T on Instagram the Conservatives are actually asking voters to “stop Labour’s supermajority”.
@CG yes.
@Scart some good points there. I think Rishi Sunak will probably hold on by a bit but who knows at this point.
I’ll never say this again but this time the Conservatives need to lose. But I still want some moderate Conservatives to retain their seats to give the party some good MPs.
I endorse Labour to win the election.
@ Nether Portal
I hope there is stability and strong majority government with no more chaos and civil wars. I am really hoping that the SNP looses as many seats as possible it is the party I despise the most and hope pro-union voters in Scotland vote tactically either Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem so SNP wins as few seats as possible.
@Nimalan I agree I think the SNP needs to lose control of Scotland.
BREAKING: The Sun, a British newspaper that has endorsed the Conservatives at every general election since 2010, has officially backed Labour this time.
The Sun declared that it’s “time for change” and that Rishi Sunak needed to go. The Sun endorsed Sir Keir Starmer to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1751vv0z7o.amp
@Nimalan and @Neither Portal, Russia also wanted Scottish Independence as SNP was still the time against NATO Membership (although they their changed mind) and was anti-nuclear as Scotland is home to the British Submarine Base.
Newspaper endorsements:
* Conservative: Daily Express, Daily Mail, Mail on Sunday, Sunday Express, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph
* Labour: Daily Mirror, Daily Record, Evening Standard, Express and Star, Financial Times, Liverpool Echo, New Statesman, Sunday Mail, Sunday Mirror, Sunday People, The Economist, The Guardian, The Independent, The Observer, The Scottish Sun, The Sun, The Sunday Times
* Count Binface (satirical candidate): Daily Star
@Marh yeah Putin isn’t really right or left on the political spectrum, he’s his own category. Putin is very socially conservative but he’s also economically centrist and in his foreign policy he’s anti-Western. He’s not a communist anymore (per se) but he still favours relations with communist countries. He’s a dictator so he also likes other dictatorships.
He wanted Trump to win because Trump wants to normalise relations with Russia and many extreme Republicans from the main Trumpist faction (the Freedom Caucus) are openly against sending weapons to Ukraine.
In case anyone’s wondering, the difference between the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russo-Ukrainian war is that while Hamas and other terrorist groups should be eliminated and Israel can defend itself against terrorism, there is still wrong on both sides and the conflict is quite complex. However, Ukraine on the other hand did nothing wrong and Russia just attacked them.
Good Point Marh
Forgot SNP used to be anti-NATO. I dont see the Scots as an oppressed people like the Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians of Karbaakh, Rohingiya etc which is why i am not a supporter of Scottish independence or Catalan Independence for that matter.
I’d be interested to hear if Russia did anything about the Catalan independence referendums since they supported Scottish independence.
Russia has a long history of backing separatist movements. The Soviet Union fought against Apartheid in South Africa and they also supported independence and armed the forces of many African and Latin American countries in conflicts against the Western colonial powers. Because of the Soviet influence, many became communist or socialist states and most didn’t abandon communism until the Fall of Communism in 1989.
@Nimalan I agree I think they should be allowed their own Parliament and their own laws and official languages but they shouldn’t be a separate country.
This is going to be a Mark Mcgowan style victory where Labour will win electorates that they’ve never held before or for 80-100 years over there.
@ Nether Portal
Agree i support autonomy for the Scots, Catalans, Welsh etc. They currently already have devolution where they can develop the languages and culture within that framework. Just like each state in India has it own official languages and culture and Quebec has its own provincial government and French as its official language. I only support statehood for oppressed peoples like the ones i mentioned above.
BREAKING NEWS: the final YouGov poll has predicted that the Tories face a historic wipeout.
In Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton, the Conservatives are predicted to win but Sunak’s majority has been heavily decreased to just 11% against Labour, a swing of –36.2% compared to his 47.2% majority in Richmond (Yorks) in 2019. Rishi Sunak’s vote has gone from 63.6% to just 39% (–24.6%), while Labour’s vote has gone from 16.4% to 28% (+11.6%).
Full poll: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49950-final-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory
@Neither Portal, Putin is strange in politics
He was obviously initially a communist and a KGB agent during the Soviet Union then just after Soviet Union fell he became a Center-Right politician then when he began in becoming president he had both Right-Wing Nationalist and Communist in his government cabinet
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