I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
UK election open thread
I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
@Np because he knows how bad harris is and doesnt want her to win
BREAKING: LIZ CHENEY ENDORSEMENT
Liz Cheney, a moderate Republican (an excellent example of a Republican I would vote for) known for her criticism of Donald Trump, has endorsed Democrat Kamala Harris for President. Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, represented Wyoming’s at-large congressional district in the House of Representatives from her election in 2016 until she lost renomination in 2022. Cheney lost renomination in 2022 in a landslide to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman.
Cheney has said she could potentially run for President in the future, and she’s certainly an excellent option. Not only is she representative of rural voters (coming from the rural state of Wyoming which voted almost 70% for Trump in 2020) but she is also representative of moderates and could win what are currently solidly Democrat counties and districts with small-l-liberals (economically liberal/conservative and socially liberal, but not as progressive as a Green or progressive Democrat candidate obviously).
Prediction: Neither Trump nor Harris will crack 300 EC votes.
Hasn’t happened since the Bush era, but will happen here.
@ scart agreed
@Scart which states do you think Trump and Harris will win?
Personally I think Trump will flip Georgia and Nevada plus maybe Arizona but not Michigan. Pennsylvania is more likely to flip than Michigan but I still reckon the Democrats will win it.
@NP trump will win arizona georgia and north carolina. harris will likely win wisconsin and michigan. Nevada is neither here nor there as it wont help either side win unless they can flip a safe state. it will probably come down to pennsylvania
@Scart strangely enough the last time that happened it came down to just a handful of svotes in a single state(florida) and the outcome was determined in the supreme court. if that happens in pennsylvania i expect it will end up there too
Sportsbet’s odds for each state:
Republican states:
* Arizona (D): $1.64 (gain)
* Florida (R): $1.13 (hold)
* Georgia (D): $1.57 (gain)
* Nevada (D): $1.88 (gain)
* North Carolina (R): $1.46 (hold)
* Texas (R): $1.06 (hold)
Democratic states:
* Michigan (D): $1.54 (hold)
* Wisconsin (D): $1.58 (hold)
Tossups:
* Pennsylvania (D): $1.90 both ways
Sportsbet reckons Kamala Harris will win the popular vote but Donald Trump will win the most EC votes and therefore become President (again), similar to the 2016 presidential election where he won the most EC votes but lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
If Trump doesn’t win the popular vote then in three of the three elections he’s been in he’ll have lost the popular vote to a Democrat.
@ Nether Portal
I also want to point out that Jimmy McCain son of the honourable John McCain has endorsed Kamala Harris. Senator John McCain was a moderate Republican who was pro-climate action. Will be interesting if Cindy McCain endorses Kamala Harris like she did with Biden in 2020. I do think even if Trump wins the Presidency he will not win the popular vote and maybe a Republican will not win popular vote for sometime the issue is that Democrats win large states like New York and California by huge margins while Republicans only narrowly win Texas now and they win toss up states like Michigan narrowly.
@John that was 2000. It happened again in 2004 between Bush and Kerry
Trump has treated the Mccain family in a disgusting way they will never ever endorse him.
The Republicans in Arizona are crazy.. Blake Masters and his ilk will never win a senate seat from Arizona
Ti win. Harris needs to.poll slightly better than Clinton which is quite possible
@Nimalan @Mick Quinlivan I agree Donald Trump made some horrible comments about John McCain and his family, he does this with moderates not because they’re moderates but because they openly criticise him.
Some even say his insults towards the late Senator McCain cost him McCain’s home state of Arizona in 2020. I mean, Biden was the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win Maricopa County (the county that Phoenix is in and the most populous county in Arizona as well as the fourth-most populous in the United States).
Wikipedia even has an article title “Donald Trump’s comments on John McCain”.
Michigan is interesting as it has a large Arab population so that might be why Dems are projected slightly less likely to win Michigan than Wisconsin despite the Michigan voting more Democrat than Wisconsin in 2020.
@Marh are there any plurality-Muslim districts in the US or UK like there is in Australia (Blaxland in Sydney is the only seat in Australia where a non-Christian religion is the largest religion, in this case it’s Islam)?
I also wonder if a pro-Palestinian candidate (Democrat, Republican or independent) is running in Michigan for the House if he or she could win a district in Detroit with a lot of Muslims in it.
@NP, not sure as USA does not count religion on their Census but UK does have Muslim-majority as I saw on earlier comments in this thread. Regarding Pro-Palestina Candidates, other than the incumbent Rashida Tlaib (in fact represents a seat that includes Arab heavy areas like Dearborn), what I can only find is Pro-Palestinian Democrats challenging pro-Israel ones. There was a successful campaign for Muslims to Vote Uncommited in a Michigan in addition to Minnesota (has a large Somali population)
theres speculation KH is concerned about losing NH and has been using resources to hold those 4 votes. if trump were to flip NH it would probably secure the White House for him.
@Marh it seems weird that countries count race on the census but not religion. Religion is easily measurable whereas race is more mixed. In Australia I would say most people have some European heritage but less than half of Aussies would be only European (a plurality yes but not a majority). It’s also harder to measure because technically Italians and Greeks are European, but they look different to people from the Nordic countries. Also, what about Turks, are they Asian, European or Arab?
@John, I agree if Trump wins states like Maine and New Hampshire he’ll be guaranteed to win the preidency, and if Kamala Harris wins Texas, Florida and Ohio she’ll be guaranteed to win the presidency.
The last time the Democrats won Texas was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter won it.
Compared to now was a very interesting election and it shows how much the US has shifted. For some reason there was not a North-South or urban-rural divide but rather an East-West divide.
The only states west of Texas that were won by Republicans were Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Vermont and Virginia. Most of those are now Democrat states.
Conversely, the only states west of Louisiana that were won by Democrats were Hawaii and Texas. Hawaii is a Democrat state but Texas is now a Republican state.
So in 1976, the Democrats won now-Republican states like Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas and West Virginia while Republicans won now-Democrat states like California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington.
Just flagging, as I foreshadowed in Sunday’s blog post, I’m going to be closing this thread tonight. These sorts of comments threads are outside the scope of this site and I’m going to trimming things down.
@raue i thought we were allowed to use this for US election talk since there isnt a thread for that?
@NP harris wont win texas florida or ohio. thats trump country
I’m closing down the open threads, I explained it in yesterday’s post.
Comments are closed.