I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
UK election open thread
I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
@MLV he supported overturning Roe vs Wade.
@mostly trump has made it clear he believs the dcision is up to the states. he has stated that abortion should be legal in cases of rape incests and when it threatens the life of the mother
So far I have given names to 92 congressional districts and counting. So far I’ve named all of the at-large districts (including all non-voting delegates) as well as all of those in the states of Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah and West Virginia. The at-large districts are Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming, as well as the non-voting delegates of American Samoa, the District of Columbia (Washington DC), Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
I will release a CSV file with over 100 districts with new names by tonight, and I will continue to expand on it until I’ve renamed all 435. This will take a while so hopefully this is informative, interesting and helpful.
Interestingly Puerto Rico has over three million people, making Puerto Rico’s district the most populous in the USA by far. However, the US Constitution only allows states to be given voting rights in Congress, so a Resident Commissioner (currently Republican/New Progressive congresswoman Jeniffer González) represents the island territory and is a non-voting delegate. I am supportive of Puerto Rican statehood, as is the centre-right New Progressive Party.
Anyway, here’s an example of how preferential voting would work in the US:
Colorado’s 8th congressional district, 2022:
* Democratic (Yadira Caraveo): 48.38%
* Republican (Barbara Kirkmeyer): 47.69%
* Libertarian (Richard Ward): 3.93%
I have no idea if Richard Ward is a left or right-libertarian, but the majority of them are right-leaning so I’ll assume that he is a right-wing libertarian in this scenario. His HTV card would preference the Republicans, and let’s say 62.50% of Libertarian preferences flow to the Republicans. That would result in this TPP:
Republican (Barbara Kirkmeyer): 50.1%
Democrat (Yadira Cadaveo): 49.9%
This would result in Barbara Kirkmeyer being the member for Colorado’s 8th district, but because the US has first-past-the-post voting so instead it’s Yadira Cadaveo who’s the member for that district (though I expect the Republicans to gain it from the Democrats in November this year). Preferential voting is my favourite voting system for elections to lower houses with single-member electoral districts because it means the majority of people preferred the winning decision over the second-place one.
Here is my preliminary names for the 102 districts in the states and territories I mentioned above plus Minnesota: https://jmp.sh/XoNdMbDT
I will add more in the coming days.
*100 districts
Polling update (presidential):
Map: https://jmp.sh/fByLQSas
Interestingly Trump is only –9% behind Kamala Harris in her home state of California, a Democrat stronghold. Trump is also not polling as well as I expected in Georgia (which is purple because it’s tied), but he is overperforming in some northeastern states such as Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia. He is doing quite well in Ohio. The darkest shades are over +30% margins while the lightest are +0-4.9% margins, and Trump is +10% ahead in Ohio.
This is all based on the most recent polling, and in many states that aren’t in play the most recent poll was conducted when Joe Biden was still running. States with asterisks show polling for Biden vs Trump, while states without asterisks show polling for Harris vs Trump. Hawaii is the only state without polling yet so it’s in grey (Washington DC also had no polling but it’s not a state so I chose not to include it on the map due to there being no polling), but we can assume that Harris will win both Hawaii and Washington DC and I think Trump will win Georgia.
And based on the most recent poll in each state, here’s a map of states won by each candidate:
Link: https://jmp.sh/97L3gQgO
Key:
* Blue: Democratic hold
* Red: Republican hold
** Dark red: Republican flip
* Purple: Tied
Results:
* Marginal states (under +5% margin): Arizona (R), Michigan (D), New Hampshire (D), New Jersey (R), Nevada (R), North Carolina (R), Pennsylvania (R), Virginia (R), Wisconsin (D)
* States that flipped from Democratic to Republican: Arizona, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia
* Tied state: Georgia
@NP, the source of the polls and are they the same polls?
As i followed US Politics, it does looks inconsistent with trends with New Jersey and Virginia somehow more likely than Georgia despite the first two having much larger Democratic margins in 2020 (16% for NJ and 10% for Virginia) and yet Michigan and Wisconsin manage to remain narrowly Democratic in the same map. As I did research for sources the latest poll i could find for Virginia and NJ was when Biden was still running whereas all others are recent.
@Marh Yeah I’m a bit confused by the source of said polls. If the Dems are losing NJ and Maine, Georgia should not be a tied state and should easily be won back by the Reps, same with Michigan and Wisconsin. Also, Ohio already flippped to Reps in 2016 and wasn’t won back in 2020.
Recent polling news (and even reported in The Australian today, which is definitely not a progressive media outlet that would favour the Dems), that currently Harris-Walz are enjoying a political honeymoon at the moment, putting Trump-Vance on the backfoot, and that currently polling indicates that many of those marginal states are either looking to be retained by the Dems or in an optimistic scenario for the Dems, flipping some additional ones (like NC). That’s not to say that will be the outcome come the election, as the honeymoon could very well dissipate by that time.
@Nether Portal Trump leading in New Jersey? Doesn’t sound realistic.
@Marh @WL @Scart polls from the Wikipedia page.
@Scart a poll from 1-2 July 2024 with a sample size of 477 (quite small) by United 2024 with a margin of error of ±4.5% had Trump at 43%, Biden at 41% and 16% other/undecided. The same poll when adding minor party candidates had 43% each for Biden and Trump, 8% for RFK, 3% for Green nominee Jill Stein and just 3% other/undecided.
Source: https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/gop-super-pac-poll-in-n-j-shows-biden-vs-trump-kim-vs-bashaw-statistically-tied/
I can’t find much about United 2024 online (when I Googled “United 2024” it came up with Manchester United results and fixtures) but Wikipedia says they’re a Republican-backed group.
I agree about NJ with Scart, If Democrats are losing NJ they are probably going to loose Illinois, California as well all of which are affluent states, well educated and also very racially diverse. NJ is the part of the US that i have spent the most time as i have family there. The Democrats have not been able to win the Presidency since 1976 back then they had the support of White Southerners which they dont have these days so the maths does not add without NJ or even Maine.
There are only about 9 states where a change of party is possible. 2 of those….. Texas and Florida will remain with the Republicans. The remaining North Carolina , Georgia, Arizona , Nevada, and Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and 1 vote in Maine and 1 vote in Nebraska the last 2 will likely split 1 all. This is where the 2 parties are spending most of their money somewhere round $1us Billion each. Talk of flips anywhere else is rubbish or wishful thinking.
@Mick Quinlivan @Nimalan I’m not saying he will but I think Trump CAN win Maine and New Hampshire. He could potentially win Minnesota too but that will be hard with Minneapolis being quite Democrat.
But I agree that Trump will win Florida and Texas. Texas is urbanising but still liberal conservative I would say in many areas so I think if the Liberal Party existed in America as a centre-right alternative (like the Independent Party of Delaware, who use the colour light blue and share similarities with the Liberal Party of Australia) then the Liberals would win states like Florida and Texas.
Also I won’t be surprised if Harris and Trump both flip states and I also won’t be surprised if Trump wins a state or two that he didn’t win in 2016.
I would be interested to hear some thoughts as to what a more moderate centre-right party like the Liberals in Australia or like a national version of the Independent Party in Delaware then what states they could win and which districts they could win. I think a fair few rural seats are too conservative to vote for such a party so they’d stick with the Republicans and many inner-city seats would be too progressive to vote for such a party so they’d stick with the Democrats, but maybe a moderate Republican could become Governor of a state like Hawaii. Phil Scott is one of the most socially liberal Republicans ever (he would fit in with the moderate Liberals in Australia) and he’s a very popular Governor. He’s the Governor of Vermont which other than Washington DC had the highest vote for Biden at the 2020 election.
Harris won’t win any states buddn dint win in 2020
If push came to shove it is
Probable that the one state
Concerned North.Carolina will remain republican. But
Trump only won by 1% last time and there is a very competitive race for governor occurring at the same time which the democrats are likely to win.. so the result will be close
Atm the moment Pennsylvania is the key state. If trump wins it he wins but he can still win without it. Harris can’t.
Will we ever have another US presidential election between moderates, or when one candidate is moderate or even just not ridiculous? We have them in Australia all the time (e.g the 2016 federal election and the 2023 NSW state election). The last time it happened in the US at a presidential election was in 2012 when Barack Obama was a moderate Democrat and Mitt Romney was a moderate Republican and they agreed on a lot of things.
Biden ideologically seemed fine in 2020, but he got too old and his policies didn’t work for the time and place. Trump did okay fiscally during his presidency but on other issues he’s quite right-wing.
Having politicians who agree on things isn’t always a good thing look what happened to Rudd and turnbull
Donald’s trumps main problem is that he’s Donald Trump of course that’s also his greatest strength
@NP
The US is becoming more polarized so it is becoming less likely also voluntary voting means parties have to appeal to the base to get them to turn out. In Australia compulsory voting has meant polarization is not as bad as there are more centrist voters who will vote.
I think Trump can win Maine but less likely than New Hampshire as well. I think those two states are quite centrist and would prefer a moderate campaign. Minnesota is also a possibility but less than other Mid Western States such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio again it is more affluent than the 3 other states and less of a rust belt and it its population is is more concentrated is Wisonsin. I think if i lived in the US Minnestota or Maryland is the states i would choose between to live. I have been to Maryland and loved it but not yet Minnestota but just what i read.
*its population is concentated in Minneapolis i mean.
In my opinion trump will secure at least 268 EC votes meaning harris must win Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan. If trump wins nh those states are irrelevant
Even if he only manages 1 vote extra in Maine that gets hi. To 269 at which point a tie guarantees him the presidency since the republicans control the house
I’m surprised people don’t think Harris is a moderate when her stance on justice issues hasn’t been very progressive at all.
A few comments here to reply to:
@John I meant to say on basic issues like healthcare and social issues they agree with each other. Elections should be based mostly on economic issues, culture wars are unnecessary. David Crisafulli and Steven Miles are quite different economically but socially they both have common views that the general public resonates with. In the US a plurality or majority of people in every state (including the most right-wing states) support gay marriage yet many elected Republicans still oppose it.
I also agree that Trump being Trump is good and bad. He’s like Pauline Hanson in that the average working man/woman and his/her dog and that he often bases his views on stuff the public thinks in a way. Hanson’s main weakness is her COVID policies and some of her environmental policies. Trump’s main weakness is his own behaviour.
@Nimalan I agree that compulsory voting leads to less polarisation but countries like the UK, South Africa, Canada, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Fiji, most EU countries, etc also have respectable candidates despite not having compulsory voting. Though America is different to Europe, Oceania and Westernised Asia and Africa, even to other countries in the Americas it’s different.
@Wilson that’s because her social policies are progressive. That’s typically what people base words like “liberal”, “conservative”, “moderate”, “populist”, “woke”, etc on.
If and when the Republicans nominate a moderate for President, that candidate will win in a landslide not seen this century.
Trump has not got 268 votes in the bag. Trump will win one vote in Maine only and Harris will win one vote in Nebraska but Trump will not win elsewhere in Maine nor will Harris win extra in Nebraska. Those votes will cancel each other out. Arizona can be won by the democrats as The Republicans are in disarray. Kari Lake will not win the senate seat. The 3 rust belt states are the Key.. the Sunbelt states are icing on the cake. Nevada was won by Clinton.. I cannot see why Harris won’t win there This will be the third close election in 12 years.
@mick unless one of them can flip eithers safe states nevada is meaningless and won’t determine the winner
I should have stated he will get to at least 262. Adding nevada makes it 268 but it’s irrelevant when you don’t include those safe states
If you look at the Cook PVI it gets interesting.
So the Cook PVI predicts that the Democrats will win at least 226 electoral votes, while the Republicans will win at least 235. This puts 77 electoral votes up for grabs, and most of them come from the five states Joe Biden flipped in 2020 (Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin); the only other state that’s currently ranked as a tossup is Arizona.
I reckon Georgia and Nevada should definitely go back to the Republicans. That puts the Republicans at 262. So let’s start from there.
For the Democrats to get to 270, they need to win Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; this would get them to 276. However, for the Republicans to win, they only need to win either Michigan, Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin. If Trump wins Nevada it would be the only state he won in 2024 but not in 2016, but since Arizona only gets six votes they would still need to win another state to get over the line.
Np I believe you got nevada and Arizona backwards Arizona gets 11 nevada gets 6. That’s why nevada is not needed unless you bring in safe states
@Nimalan, I think New Hampshire is the closest American Equivalent to Teal Suburbs (and soon to be abolished Higgins) in Australia as there are is still a descent GOP Vote despite sharing nearby states on having amongst the most educated and less religious places in America indicating many GOP Voters are more fiscally conservative than socially conservative due to no state income tax.
Current polls have the republicans controlling the house. And the senate split 50-48 to the republicans with as tossups. So if they win the white house they only need a tie to pass legislation as the vp has the deciding vote and if they get 51 or greater KH won’t be able to implement her agenda if she wins
@John thanks for the pickup. I meant to say Arizona. I always seem to get them mixed up for some reason.
@Marh New Hampshire and Vermont are also states where the vast majority of people are white, similar to most of the teal seats.
Hillary Clinton narrowly won Nevada in 2016 and Joe Biden won it in 2024. If Trump wins it’ll be the first time that Trump has won the state in the three elections he contested.
NP, who do you support now? I can’t stand Harris. And I actually think she will do worse in the midwest than Biden, but she will do better in the sunbelt (Arizona, NC, Georgia, etc)
Nether Portal, what are these social policies of hers that you claim are very progressive? I wouldn’t call the right to abortion “progressive”, I’d call it mainstream since a solid majority of Americans don’t want it made illegal in most circumstances.
Aside from 2016 nevade has backed the winner since1980
Also I assume you meant 2020 not 2024
@Daniel T I’m still working that out. I can’t stand either of them and I could hardly stand Biden either.
@Wilson she supports legalising recreational cannabis and sex work. That’s pretty progressive to me. In my home state of Queensland both of those things are still technically illegal and nobody is planning to change that.
@ Marh/NP
I agree New Hampshire is like the Teal seats and maybe Higgins quite educated, affluent and fiscally conservative it almost exclusively white. Vermont used to be a Republican stronghold being agricultural with dairy farming and the main supplier of Maple Syrup. It is famous for the home of Ben and Jerry Ice cream however, these days it is hippe alternative lifestyle and the best Australian anology is parts of the Northern Rivers so Byron Shire and towns around Lismore like Nimbin or The Channons however excluding Tweed Heads, Grafton etc. Maine has some white working class areas so it can be compared in some parts to Lyons with Forestry and Fishing.
Vermont actually has a Republican Governor, Phil Scott. He’s a very moderate and liberal Republican and he’s quite popular there. However interestingly the only office Republicans control in Vermont is the governorship.
Nether Portal, this isn’t Queensland we’re talking about. Most Americans support legalising marijuana, so again it’s a mainstream position. (Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ajherrington/2024/03/31/new-poll-finds-9-out-of-10-americans-support-legalizing-marijuana/).
Harris also did a massive about-face on marijuana after doggedly pursuing people for marijuana-related crimes as a prosecutor, so I don’t think this is some heartfelt change of values, but just her being smart enough to realise it’s a popular position with voters.
As for sex work, once again Harris cracked down hard on sex workers as a prosecutor. She doesn’t support legalisation by the way, but decriminalisation. They are not the same thing. (Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/20/fact-check-kamala-harris-has-agreed-decriminalizing-sex-work/6325987002/).
Harris supports the Nordic model, which I’d argue isn’t progressive at all, because it’s still trying to eliminate sex work, just by prosecuting the clients rather than the workers. It’s the same old socially conservative moralising, just applied to a different party in the same transaction. But it serves the interest of the Republican Party and their media allies to paint this as some sort of radical left solution, so they describe it as such when it’s anything but.
So the Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman is a member of the Progress Party which is a centre-left party aligned with the Democrats (Molly Gray, the previous Lieutenant Governor, was a Democrat).
BREAKING: RFK DROPS OUT
Ex-Democratic independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. He has endorsed Donald Trump to win. He is the first member for the Kennedy family, the Democratic dynasty that brought JFK and RFK amongst others, to endorse a Republican presidential candidate.
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