I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
UK election open thread
I’ve had a request to open up a comments thread for the upcoming UK election.
I’m not planning to cover that election on this site, but if you’d like to discuss it, you can do so here.
16:1 odds on the Conservatives to win. Seems like if you just set fire to your money at least it’d keep you warm for a moment.
Thanks for starting this thread.
I would like to discuss some thoughts.
While it’s almost certain that Labour will win in a landslide, I would like to share my thoughts and opinions from my point of view and my experience in the UK and around British people.
Obviously it would be reasonable to think that because I’m a Liberal member I’d be fully behind the Conservatives. And usually I would. And I think Labour’s gotten too woke to govern.
But a few of the Conservatives’ election promises in recent times and a few policies they’ve adopted is turning me away from them and that’s bad since I would’ve been all behind the Tories at every other election. And I’ve got nothing against Sunak personally and I would much rather have him as UK PM than Keir Starmer. And it’s great how inflation has fallen a lot after Sunak’s efforts to reduce it.
I’m pro-European and I think Brexit was a mistake (the Conservatives were neutral during the referendum but they were the ones who pulled Britain out of the EU after the country voted Leave in the referendum). But that didn’t fully turn me off. But promising to introduce conscription if re-elected? That combined with a few other out-of-touch ideas are turning me away from them for the first time ever.
I love the UK, from their football (soccer) to their people to their landmarks to my pro-monarchy position, and I’ve been there many times and I have many friends there. Here’s my endorsement for the election:
If I were in the UK, I would vote for a Conservative if they were moderate/middle and opposed conscription and Brexit but were still supportive of Conservative policies, and there are some of those in the UK. But if that’s not an option, then I would be seriously considering voting for the Liberal Democrats (a centrist party) even though I don’t agree with all their policies.
The UK needs good change, and Starmer can’t deliver that, but at this point Sunak can’t either. A Conservative-Liberal Democrats coalition government like the one in 2010 (with David Cameron as PM) honestly wouldn’t be terrible for the UK but I would prefer a Conservative Party that wouldn’t enforce conscription.
I do find it fascinating that the Lib Dems are outside the 2010 coalition government, not really a major force in UK politics and haven’t really been so in a very long time.
While FPTP is a major factor, the UK Liberal Party, now the Lib Dems never merged with the Tories (let alone Labour, which supplanted it as the Tories’ main rival in the early 20th century) compared to say Australia’s Liberal Party which traditionally advocated for liberalism (as well as conservatism). Although individuals within it have certainly switched parties (Winston Churchill and Liz Truss among others, although the former actually started as a Tory, left to join the Liberals then returned to the Tories after declaring the Liberals a spent force, and even advocated for Liberals to support the Tories thereafter).
Instead, the UK Libs merged with the Soc Dems (imagine that ever happening in Australia) years before Tony Blair returned Labour to power with Third Way and New Labour.
This country badly needs electoral reform. And it’s not like they have to look far for a good alternative. Northern Ireland has an excellent model for their assembly, as does the Republic for the Dail. If I lived in the UK, I would forget about party politics and spend all my effort campaigning for electoral reform, because they’re forever doomed to be choosing between two disappointing parties otherwise.
Predictions for how many seats Labour will win?
Electoral Calculus has these predictions based on polling, as of 30 May 2024:
Seats:
Labour: 479 (+282)
Conservative: 92 (–284)
Liberal Democrats: 44 (+36)
SNP: 12 (–36)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (+1)
Green: 2 (+1)
Reform: 0 (±0)
Votes:
Labour: 44.3% (+11.3%)
Conservative: 23.5% (–21.2%)
Reform: 11.3% (+9.2%)
Green: 6.3% (+3.5%)
SNP: 2.9% (–3.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 0.6% (+0.1%)
Labour are going to win in a landslide and that’s not surprising since the Conservatives have trailed in the polls since at least 2022 and they’ve been in government for 14 years now, coming into government in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in 2010 and then being re-elected in 2015 with a majority, in 2017 with confidence and supply, and in 2019 in a landslide when Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to a massive defeat partially attributed to the fact that Corbyn was an absolute disgrace and an absolute joke (he took fairly left-wing positions and allowed antisemitism to exist in the Labour Party through pro-Palestinian groups and activism; antisemitism essentially led Jews to desert Labour and most of them won’t come back even in 2024).
400 to 450 labor
@Scart perfect timing for my comment which I was writing before you posted that comment but it ironically fits.
Labour will win at least 400 seats by the looks of it. The Conservatives will win less than 110 seats, but still should be able to win at least 80. The SNP are losing a lot of ground in Scotland as support for Scottish independence is dropping (though this could also be a factor of the fact that the SNP has done a bad job in government in Scotland). A lot of moderate Conservative voters will go to the Liberal Democrats who are essentially the British version of the teals in Australia but with less class-based support (and less distinction between the state and national Conservatives as there is with the state and federal Liberals in Sydney and Melbourne where the teals won federal seats but not state seats).
In England, Conservatives will keep their rural seats with large agricultural industries and a high population of older, more socially conservative residents. Some people are talking about whether the Conservatives will win any seats outside England, with opinions seemingly divided, but I think they should hold on to a few rural seats in Scotland and Wales. For example, the Conservatives will retain the seat of Monmouthshire in Wales but the Liberal Democrats could potentially gain the seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (which is a new constituency that was created from Brecon and Radnorshire and Neath after the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster Constituencies).
I don’t wanna get off-topic but I didn’t know where to put this comment.
The results are coming in for the South African election, but counting is still quite low. The DA are currently ahead in the provinces of Gauteng and Western Cape, while the ANC is currently ahead in Eastern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Northern Cape, while former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe party (better known in English as the MK Party or simply MK) is currently ahead in KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC previously controlled every province except the DA-controlled Western Cape and has provided every President since Nelson Mandela.
Labour will win by quite a considerable margin but I doubt they’ll win more than 450 seats and it would be a catastrophe for the Tories if they win less than 100. It’s hard to assess how many seats the Lib Dems will win anywhere between 30 and 65 depending on tactical voting.
After 1997 the Tories were left without any seats in Scotland and Wales, although this time I expect they hold at least one in Wales and up to 5 or 6 in Scotland.
@Nether Portal Do you think this could end up being like Canada ’93, where the Tories had to eventually merge with a rightwing populist party (which ironically was also called Reform) to win back government, and even then it still took them 12 years to win it back
@Nether Portal
I agree with you that Labour may have trouble gaining back Jewish voters. Most of the seats with sizeable Jewish populations are in middle class and upper middle class areas of North London. Labour already hold Hornsey & Friern Barnet and Hampstead & Highgate, they are projected to win Chipping Barnet and Hendon, whilst Finchley & Golders Green is a tossup between Labour and the Lib Dems. Hertsmere is also close, and that would be a massive upset if Labour won there.
Another factor that may help Labour is that Starmer’s wife and children are Jewish and may explain his determination to remove anti-semitic elements from the party.
Couldn’t possibly be less invested in the Labour/Conservative slapfight but I will be interested in what happens to the third party and independent candidates. The Lib Dems will definitely pick up seats but in a way their brand of politics have never really been less relevant. Their closet tory act has been entirely aped by Keir Starmer’s Labour party and they’ll have even less influence on policy than the teals have on Australian Labor. Some polls are projecting the Green party to poll ~10% of the national vote, which will probably end up netting them… 2, maybe 3 seats? in total? out of 650. The SNP are in meltdown and they’ll probably lose dozens of seats.
Really I’m much more interested in what happens in the aftermath. Keir Starmer and his allies, who are even more right-wing than the Labor Right in Australia, now have complete and total control over the Labour Party, and the change in government policy and day-to-day life for the average Briton will be even less noticeable than it was here when Albo won in 2022. What becomes of the actual left-wing opposition, such as it is? Will it be led by Jeremy Corbyn and a handful of independent Labour refugees, or will the Green Party emerge as the new default left-wing alternative like they are now in Australia (that would be difficult, because despite projections that they’ll poll ~10% nation wide, they’re only going to net 2, maybe 3 seats for their trouble). What Scottish independence? They’re very quickly going to be as dissatisfied with Starmer’s Labour as they were with the last decade and a half of Conservative dictat, despite the binfire that is the SNP and its factional squabbling. What about Ireland and Wales? Anyway like I said, this will be a really boring election unless you’re fascinated by bright changing colours on the tv screen.
@Scart potentially yes.
@Ben Raue I know I already requested this thread, but could you do one for South Africa? I have three friends in Cape Town who are watching the election closely.
@KT1 I do agree that may help (I didn’t actually know that his wife and kids were Jewish) but some won’t go back because of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Also, it’s a bit ironic that at the same time that the UK Tories are set to lose by their biggest margin ever, Canada’s are set to win by their biggest margin ever.
I think Labour will win at least 450 seats. Their landslide victory will absolutely be larger than 1997. SCart, I wonder if there’s a phenomenon called the “landslide factor”; a deeply unpopular government in a nation with a parliamentary system who has ruled for at least three terms will lose the next election by a larger margin compared to normal circumstances. This would currently apply to Canada and the UK.
No I’m not gonna make a thread for every overseas election. You can discuss it here if you want.
Labour wins 450+ seats. Tories are finished but could hang on to at least 100 seats though.
Other than the Tories, the SNP is set to be the biggest losers. SNP is in trouble and might lose a greater percentage of their own seats than the Tories will. This is despite relatively high support for EU membership and even Scottish independence. Labour will likely get the majority of Scottish seats.
Reform is a wild card. I don’t expect seat gains but they will likely split the votes, particularly of those who are pro-Brexit or voted Tory last election. As it’s a FTFP system, this would offer Labour a path to winning.
Jeremy Corbyn is running as an independent in Islington North after getting thrown out of the Labour Party.
My country, I know allot of the political history here and results of most elections since the late 1800’s and the years they were held, so here’s my take,
While I would absolutely love the Tories to be destroyed and Labour getting 450+ seats I just don’t think it’s going to happen. I think Labour will get between 360-390 seats so around an 100 seat majority.
I just think the Tories will do/say anything and will employ dirty tactics and to scare older voters into not voting Labour. As Nether mentioned, Labour unfortunately has a “Woke” problem, even my dad tells me this (and my parents voted Labour at every election when we lived there with the exception of 1983 because Michael Foot was extreme-left wing much like Corbyn)
Although my parents did get an overseas ballot only in 2017 and voted Tory, but we live in Australia so I don’t count this one. They also voted for Brexit.
The military announcement is a complete joke and it is clearly because Sunak wants to prepare the UK for war with Russia, they keep trying to say it’s not about that, but it clearly is based on the world events right now. Most young people refuse to die to fight Russia. This will heavily backfire.
About the polls, 1997 actually had Labour up by 20 points or more but the final outcome was around +13 or so for Labour, so overestimated, but it didn’t matter at the end.
Keir Starmer will struggle to get 400 seats in a polarised electorate (it had become rapidly more polarising in the last 10-15 years much like everywhere else), and most importantly he is no Tony Blair in terms of charisma, I think Blair would get 450 seats at this election but Starmer would struggle.
The SNP should lose 35 seats, with Labour at around 370-390 seats, Scotland and Wales gives them the majority. They still win dozens of more seats than the Tories in England. But before I say this is a “massive landslide” I need to see if Labour can win bellwether seats that have seemingly moved away from them since Brexit,
The most famous seat I’ll be watching is no other than Portsmouth, Penny Mordaunt’s seat. Now a poll said she is leading by 4, but this is only a seat poll. She clearly is popular there, but this seat has got it right since 1966, If she wins, Labour is unlikely getting 400, She will likely become the next leader if she holds.
Other seats Labour needs for 400, Tatton (Osborne’s old seat, Never gone Labour), Chingford & Woodford Green (lain Duncan Smith’s seat) but he is popular and Labour did lose the Uxbridge by-election, so will Labour underperform in London?
Cities, London and Westminster (Never gone Labour), but looks like it will this time. And can Labour hold their by-election wins? I think they can, but Mid-Bedfordshire will be tough, it is a toss-up probably lean-conservative. But if Labour holds this and Selby, then yes, they are winning 400+ because these are not Labour seats.
The Lib Dems should win 40 seats or so, They will struggle to hold North Shropshire, but should hold the other seats they won at by-elections. North Shropshire will be the Christchurch of 2024, Christchurch was regained by the conservatives in 1997 after losing it in a by-election in 1994. I hope I am wrong, but gut feeling is the Tories win North Shropshire, and especially due to vote splitting from Labour as Labour did come 2nd in 1997 and lost narrowly.
The government will lose 150 seats or more, that is universally agreed upon, but 250? 300? I don’t know man, I hope so but I just doubt it.
Mordaunt losing her seat would be similar to Frydenberg losing Kooyong in 2022, or even similar to Michael Portillo losing his seat in the ’97 landslide. According to YouGov, she’s the only Tory politician I could find with a positive approval rating. If she goes, the Tories will be out of power for 15 years at minimum probably. The only other real leadership candidates are Badenoch (basically the UK’s answer to Jacinta Price, relatively scandal-free but well right of centre), Cleverly (not as right wing, but loaded with scandals and gaffes, among them, joking about spiking his wife’s drink, and referring to a Labour held seat as a shithole), and Braverman (both highly right-wing and littered with scandals, more comparable with Pauline Hanson if anything).
And I wouldn’t say Starmer lacks charisma, he doesn’t have as much as Blair or even Kevin Rudd but I’d still say he’s more charismatic than Albo. He’s almost a clone of Gordon Ramsay tbh.
Mordaunt’s seat has tended to be somewhat of a bellwether and was held by LAB 1997-2005. Mordaunt may have some degree of a personal vote but whilst that can help you survive normal elections, and even moderately unfavourable ones, they can rarely withstand a landslide. Think she’ll be looking out for a new home and a by-election in order to stay in business.
Braverman’s seat actually borders Mordaunt’s but is historically strong Tory. It has however seen its borders changed with some of the stronger wards in the west of the seat moved into a new seat. Certainly the possibility of an uncomfortable time for Suella, particularly if some tactical voting occurs.
Badenoch, Patel & Cleverly all hold neighbouring seats in Essex just beyond the eastern borders of Greater London. In usual circumstances, rock solid seats but these are areas where Reform poll very well and the extent to how that vote holds up will decide just how large a haircut they receive. Rees-Mogg over in North Somerset ….. will be hearing “Hit The Road Jack”.
Whilst they are not going to be completely shut out of Greater London, its highly likely that the Tories will be clinging onto maybe a handful of seats on the fringes, most notably south and north east. They also look likely to be hit hard along the south coast, losing to both LAB & LD and likewise in the south west; esp Cornwall, parts of Devon, Somerset (esp to LD).
Wales looks to be ugly. I disagree with an earlier poster regarding Tories holding onto Monmouthshire which I think may be gone with their better chances being the two rural seats (Brecon & Montgomeryshire although both may be vulnerable to LD & LAB respectively).
LAB should be able to form a majority government without Scotland but the extent that LAB can reclaim ground in the pivotal “Central Belt” across from Edinburgh to Glasgow and other urban areas may determine the scope of that margin. On the surface, it would appear that LAB is likely to pick up at least 20 seats here.
Interesting results in South Africa, with the ANC looking to be short of a majority and having to pick a dance partner between the DA, EFF and MK. I think a lot comes down to whether the ANC parliamentarians are loyal to Ramaphosa personally. If they are, they’re probably choosing between the DA and EFF, and I think they’d probably lean towards the DA as EFF would scare the markets too much. If they’re happy to dispense with Ramaphosa though, working with MK might be more palatable. Either way, it’s good that the ANC haven’t been rewarded for their incompetence and will have another party holding them to account.
Labour must win!
Might be a bit closer than predicted. Starmer is a bit of a wet blanket (Farage’s description about the the president of the EU as “all the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk” might be apt) and won’t attract everyone like a Blair or Boris – both of whom had charisma in spades.
Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn potentially will cause issues in London.
Also does reform run in all seats or do they sit out where the conservative members are pretty much on all fours with reform. The Moggster was mentioned above and given he is pals with Farage, his sister was a UKIP member of the Europen Parliament why would reform run against the Moggster thereby almost certainly ensuring a Labour win? If reform doesn’t run against the Moggster then he probably has a chance. So why would they?
On South Africa – I am amazed that the ANC has lasted as long as it has. Rampant corruption, brown outs, low economic growth, issues in education, health care and crime. Bit like Queensland come to think of it….. In both cases the people get the politicians they deserve.
Wilson, I think that the pro-Ramaphosa ANC would deal with the DA because the MK and EFF are seen as “ANC traitors” and they would be more problematic in a coalition compared to the DA. I guess it all comes down to the influence that the Zuma loyalists still wield.
I think the reason why ANC keeps winning in spite of many issues is rather there there are no viable poilitcal alternatives
1) ANC can easily take credit as liberators from apartheid creating challenges for other parties
2) DA faces the problem as most Black South Africans perceived DA as a party for the White, Coloured, and upper middle class evident from the DA voter base which is not further helped by DA’s government in Cape Province being accused of neglecting the slum communities.
3) Then you have “ANC Traitors” as Ian mentioned
@Marh @Wilson about South Africa:
* The DA is the main centre to centre-right party and the Multi-Party Charter is the only way SA can get the change it deserves. The ANC have destroyed SA and they deserve to lose not just their majority but the whole election. I wholeheartedly endorsed John Steenhuisen to win because his views are liberal conservative and he’s got a serious plan to get SA back on track.
Western Cape (the province where Cape Town is) has been controlled by the DA since 2009, when the ANC lost the province making it the first time since the ANC had ever lost control of a province they previously controlled. Western Cape is less Black than the other provinces and it’s quite racially mixed with large Black and White populations but I think the majority are actually Coloureds (mixed race). English, Afrikaans and Xhosa are the main languages in Western Cape and Cape Town itself is quite middle-class and it’s one of the safest cities in South Africa (and indeed one of the safest cities in all of Africa).
The ANC’s internal corruption and failure to fix the economy and issues such as poverty while focusing heavily on foreign issues like Gaza but not sanctioning Russia for the illegal invasion of Ukraine (only Western Cape did this because the DA is pro-Ukrainian and isn’t active on Israel-Palestine but condemned the October 7 attacks by Hamas whereas the modern ANC is pro-Palestinian but remains neutral on the Russo-Ukrainian War due to South Africa being a BRICS member).
On the current results the ANC has lost its majority and the DA have retained Western Cape quite easily with Gauteng being a potential gain. The new MK Party led by former President Jacob Zuma, a corrupt polygamist accused of rape who was an ANC member, has won KwaZulu-Natal which is Zuma’s home province and it’s possible that the ANC have done so badly there (despite it once being an ANC stronghold) that the right-wing Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) could actually finish second instead of the ANC who would finish third in that scenario.
@Nether Portal, You are correct about Western Cape being ethnically mixed you are wrong about Cafe Town being safe as they suprisingly slightly more homicide numbers than even Johannesburg despite the latter having a larger population and being well known. The reason why it may seem Cape Town is safe is because their CBD and Tourist areas are in safer parts of the city but I heard many sources that the crimes in the slums are much worse than Johannesburg.
Nether Portal, your opinions on the parties are all well and good but the DA and MPC do not have the numbers to govern. Given how much the DA and EFF despise each other, there is no stable governing coalition possible that doesn’t involve the ANC. Perhaps the best outcome for the DA would be forming a coalition government with the ANC that gives them a good level of influence, and then using that influence to solve major problems so that the public might reward them with more seats next time so they can govern with the MPC and not need the ANC.
Zuma was found not guilty of rape in a criminal trial, so I don’t know why you feel the need to bring up the accusations now, it detracts from any argument that you’re making. Yes, he’s corrupt and should be in prison, so condemn him for that, not something he was found not guilty for.
@Marh I’ve been there and I never experienced any trouble. I would say Joburg is worse as I’ve been there too though I was fine.
@Wilson the counting isn’t over yet but it’s certain that the ANC have lost its majority and the DA will not govern with the EFF or MK Party.
Also Zuma was banned from contesting the seat at the election.
from the Tactical Voting websites if they are 100% succesful would follow:
Labour 438 (+232)
Tories 76 (-268)
Lib Dems 58 (+43)
DUP 5 (-2)
Greens 2 (+1)
Ind/Other 71
Look at the seat of Milton
Keynes central…. expect a Labor win if the opinion polls stand. Fpp tends to magnify majorities…look at the incidence of Landslides.. Thatcher Blair and Johnson now probably
Starmer. In recent times govts like Australia normally get 2 terms.. at the 3rd or subsequent term there is a its time factor if it is seen that the other side is competent to govern. Where one party wins an unexpected election eg Major uk and Keating and Morrison au then the subsequent election is a clear and overwhelming win for the party that lost such an election
Farage standing for Reform does have potential (far from certainty of course) of upending this election. It really depends on whether he can get all of those 2019 tory voters who have dropped out to re engage. Do that, and there is a very significant base to work from. If Matt Goodwin is right, and this is the ‘None of the above’ election and Farage gets traction, then anything could happen. Most likely though would be Liberals ’74, a lot of seconds but few wins.
I actually think that is why Sunak called the election now, he was worried Farage was going to announce he was standing and get 3 or 4 months to gather some momentum and threaten a lot of Tory seats.
yes as much as the DA want to oust the ANC there is no palusible majority that doesnt involve the ANC and they would rather help the ANC then risk a coalitiion with MK and EEF both who stand on Land seizures and nationalisation
@Mostly Labor Voter, I don’t think Sunak’s election call had much to do with Farage. Farage was intending to work on the Trump campaign in the US and like most, he was caught off guard. Just last week, he ruled himself out of running in the UK elections.
@Votante
I actually believe Reform/Farage was a factor in Sunak’s choice to go early, they had been disorganised and hadn’t selected candidates for a lot of seats. That being said even if Reform had a long time to select candidates a fair few of them would turn out to be nutcases.
@Votante,
It doesn’t matter what Farage was intending to do (but the fact he announced so quickly suggests it wasn’t out of the blue) but what Sunak and the Tory brains trust thought. Look at it from their POV. Farage announces he is running during the August silly season. 2 weeks of non stop Farage and a 5-6 point bump in the polls. Then parliament resumes and the Tories are being hammered in the press and Reform holds or increases slightly. A few defections (Badinoch and Braverman?) and suddenly he might call an election with the Tories 3rd in polling and momentum heading down. Go now, and losing seats to Labour with Reform second or third is recoverable from, losing seats to Reform isn’t.
The Lib Dems seem pretty well organised in terms of which seats they’re targeting. Ed Davey is a likeable leader – his role in the coalition makes him a hard sell for Labour but he is well positioned to pick up the people that left the Tory party over Truss and Sunak.
I think the projections they’ll get a 2005 or 2010 level result are accurate. Not sure it will be enough to make them the 2nd largest party but should be good for them.
On the other hand I think Reform will entirely be spoilers.
@John (lowercase) bold prediction: if the ANC go into a coalition with the EFF and MK they will be radical and the DA would win the next election in a landslide.
Also: go Maroons!
@Nether Portal, I still think despite all the problems ANC would still be in government no matter given challenge for DA has to convince Low-Income Black Majority to vote for them if DA is still perceived as a “White Party”. The former leader Helen Zille might have played a factor in this. I don’t think even most ANC approved the ANC tenancy but still voted for them anyway becaused of the DA associations. Plus most EFF and MK voters would almost certainly prefer ANC than DA
@nether portal its precisely for that reason they wont go into a coalition. the DA wouldnt want to ruin the country just to get a elected i dont think
Recent poll had Reform only a point behind the Tories and the Lib Dems only 2 points behind that. This is getting very interesting indeed.
One poll even had Reform outpolling Tories nevertheless there were even some dire predictions that Tories loses all seats
@Marh they definitely won’t be losing every seat. They’ll probably still have at least one or two seats in Scotland and Wales. They should even be able to retain at least one seat in Greater London. But the other 90 or so seats they win will be in England and they’ll be seats the Tories always win quite easily. But it’s still a disaster for the Tories with some questioning whether or not Rishi Sunak will even win his own seat, the safe seat of Richmond (Yorks) in North Yorkshire, England (which has been merged into the new seat of Richmond and Northallerton). In 2019 he won Richmond (Yorks) with 63.6% of the vote (Labour had 16.4%, the Liberal Democrats had 12.1%, the Green Party had 4.3%, the Yorkshire Party had 1.9% and independent Nick Jardine had 1.7%). His majority was 47.4% and there’s talk of him potentially losing his seat to Labour.
@marh like ukip though who got 4 million votes but only 1 seat i doubt they will see that polling turn into as many seats as the tories
Growing support for both Reform and Lib Dems at the expense of Labour and Conservatives.
Lib Dems manifesto focus on health and social care, taxing large Corporations and environment is attracting support. Early advocacy for a free and peaceful Palestine has also attracted many.
Along with a targetted seats campaign featuring silly stunts and serious policy announcemts and a moving deeply personal Ed Davey video.
Impressive candidates drawn from local Councils and brilliant support provided to the leader by Daisy Cooper and Sarah Olney. Looking likely to emerge from the election as the Opposition.
We are less than 2 weeks to go now. I totally agree with Nether Portal on conscription, i totally oppose it. Most like-minded countries to the UK like France, Australia, Canada, US do not have conscription and a professional army is always better for defense purposes. Sunak with conscription is actually making the UK more like countries such as Turkey, Iran and Russia. It has been dismissed by all other parties from Labour to Reform as a Gimmick. Whether Brexit was a good or bad thing will be debated by many for generations. I will not say whether it was a good or bad thing. However, IMHO other issues such as Health, Education, Housing, Environment and even the Economy did not get the bandwith it deserved as Brexit drowned out any discussion on other matters. What ever the Tories achieved over 14 years may be forgotten due to one issue sticking out. For the UK’s sake i hope there is a clear majority government and that there is one PM for an entire term from the next election.
Interesting fact: in the UK, the Conservative Party’s moderate faction is called the One Nation Conservatives. Interesting because in Australia the One Nation party is a right-wing populist, national conservative and economic nationalist party that is certainly not moderate.
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