The count is nearing the end, with Clark and Franklin finishing their count today.
Quite a few candidates reached quotas today, with most of the unclear races now resolved.
It now looks likely that Craig Garland will defeat Liberal Giovanna Simpson for the final seat in Braddon, leaving the government with just 14 seats.
It also seems clear that Simon Wood will defeat Julie Sladden for the third Liberal seat in Bass, with no more Liberal votes to be distributed.
The other two races we were watching have resolved themselves with the leading party winning by a clear margin – the third Liberal in Franklin and the JLN seat in Lyons.
Bass
Today’s counting finished with the second Liberal Rob Fairs achieving a quota and distributing his surplus, confirming that Simon Wood will defeat Julie Sladden for the third Liberal seat. He currently leads 0.63 quotas to 0.54.
There is also 0.39 quotas of Shooters preferences, 0.49 quotas of preferences from third Labor candidate Geoff Lyons, and 0.42 quotas with runner-up JLN candidate Angela Armstrong.
Armstrong’s preferences will push Pentland close to quota. I don’t expect Lyons or Shooters preferences to change the Liberal outcome.
Braddon
Braddon has remained the most interesting contest. At this point it seems almost certain that Craig Garland will win tomorrow.
The three leading Liberal candidates have all reached a quota, with Giovanna Simpson as the final Liberal on 0.66 quotas.
Garland is on 0.62 quotas, trailed by Greens candidate Darren Briggs on 0.55 quotas.
The two JLN candidates are on 1.1 quotas between them, while there is no preferences left in the Labor ticket.
Garland will need to close that 0.04 quota gap on 0.55 quotas of Greens preferences and 0.1 quotas of JLN preferences. Based on past behaviour, this should be easy for Garland.
First up tomorrow, second JLN candidate James Redgrave will be excluded, and his preferences will elect Miriam Beswick with a small surplus. Her preferences will then be distributed, and likely will favour Garland. Finally, Briggs will be excluded, and his preferences will likely elect Garland for the final seat.
Clark
Clark’s count has finished, with second Liberal candidate Madeleine Ogilvie defeating fellow Liberal Marcus Vermey for the final seat, 0.91 quotas to 0.70.
Franklin
Franklin’s count has finished, with Meg Brown winning the second Labor seat. At the key point she defeated Toby Thorpe by 0.78 to 0.63 quotas, and went on to achieve a quota, as did Jacquie Petrusma and David O’Byrne.
The last two Liberal winners, Eric Abetz and Nic Street, were both elected with less than a quota.
Jade Darko ended up on 0.766 quotas, falling 1562 votes short of Nic Street.
Lyons
Liberal candidates Guy Barnett and Jane Howlett have both hit quota, and Labor’s Jen Butler went over quota on the final count of the day.
Andrew Jenner is set to win the JLN seat, currently leading Troy Pfitzner 0.5195 to 0.497 quotas.
Third Liberal Mark Shelton is on 0.78 quotas, with fourth Liberal Stephanie Cameron on track to elect Shelton when her preferences are distributed. Cameron is currently on 0.5 quotas.
The total JLN vote is currently on 1.02 quotas, while Labor is on 2.60 quotas. While there will be some leakage from both tickets, it now looks like Labor fell about 0.4 quotas short of winning here, quite a wide margin.
The bizarre outcome of all of this is that a now leaderless Labor Party may end up being the only one who can form a government based on Labor, Greens, O’Byrne, Johnson and Garland giving 18 . Who knows where the JLN fall into all of this. Interesting to know whether Labor are making overtures to O’Byrne about rejoining. If the JLN implode before the next election – their Lyons guy who was a Tory UK Councillor may end up in the Libs. If Labor do form government they may end up with Johnson and/or O’Byrne as ministers to make up the numbers. The Greens would like to be ministers but that may not be politically possible though a new leader may not feel constrained by previous undertakings.
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