The right prevails in Israel

There’s a lot of stories touting a supposed narrow victory for Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in today’s Israeli election, but this reflects a first-past-the-post mentality with little value in Israel’s ultra-multi-party system. Rather than Livni coming out on top, it seems very likely that Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government.

So here are the numbers at the moment. With 99% counted:

• Kadima – 28
• Likud – 27
• Yisrael Beiteinu – 14
• Labor – 13
• Shas – 11
• United Torah Judaism – 5
• United Arab List – 5
• National Union – 4
• Hadash – 4
• Meretz – 3
• Jewish Home – 3
• Balad – 3

In other words, Kadima 28, Likud 27, Beiteinu 14, Labor 13, Shas 11, other right-wing 12, Arab parties 12.

It’s also worth remembering that despite Kadima and Livni being portrayed as the centre-left party in this election, the party includes large elements of former Likud members. Indeed, the only parties solidly of the left (apart from the Arab parties) are Labor and Meretz, both of whom have been devestated.

Of course, there’s quite a lot of options. The most obvious is Likud-Beiteinu-Shas, which adds up to 52, and with smaller nationalist parties produces a majority. On the other hand, Kadima and Labor fall well short, although could get over the line with Beiteinu and Shas, although it’s hard to see Beiteinu working with Labor over Likud.

Alternatively a government including both Kadima and Likud could easily find the extra six seats needed for a majority, and could lock the ultra-nationalist Beiteinu out of power. In other words, there are many options, but ultimately most of them see Netanyahu in power, and any possible Kadima-led government would likely see a lurch to the right and would be much less stable than a Likud-led government.

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