11:12 – Alright I think that’s it for tonight.
I won’t be putting up another blog post analysing these results, but I’m going to be looking into the way the by-election has been spun in my Patreon newsletter on Monday. If you want to read it when it comes out, go sign up at Patreon.
11:01 – I think we’re close to the end of the night but I thought I would use the same groupings I used for the pre-election guide to look at the swing in a more simplified way.
There wasn’t a very clear geographic trend in the swings. The smallest swings were in the south, the most conservative part of the seat (and the only part in the Mornington Peninsula council area). The swing was biggest in the centre of the electorate, but not by much.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP 2022 | ALP 2PP 2024 | Swing to LIB |
| Central | 57.6 | 53.7 | 3.9 |
| North | 60.7 | 57.3 | 3.3 |
| South | 47.2 | 45.3 | 2.0 |
| Other votes | 54.9 | 47.5 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 55.8 | 51.6 | 4.3 |
10:36 – And now we have the Carrum Downs pre-poll booth, where there was a 4.04% swing to the Liberal Party.
10:15 – The giant Frankston pre-poll booth has now reported, and the 2PP swing was 4.45% – more than the seatwide average so far, but not particularly high.
9:39 – We’re still waiting to get those big pre-poll booths reported. But we have all of the election day booths in, so I’ve finished my booth map, showing the swings and the percentage.
8:58 – I’m more confident in my previous call but it would be nice to see a few more pre-poll booths reporting 2PP figures. The enormous Frankston PPVC has a relatively modest swing to the Liberal Party on primary votes, so that’s another good sign for Labor.
8:37 – I’m going to be away from my computer for a few minutes so here’s a quick summary of the state of play.
With 27 out of 36 booths reporting 2PP figures, the swing to the Liberal Party is at 3.85%. This includes a batch of almost 4000 postal votes and most election day booths, but no pre-poll votes so far.
We do have one pre-poll booth reporting primary votes, and that was a relatively good one for Labor. At the moment there’s a swing of about 0.5% to Labor on primary votes, and a swing of 7.4% to the Liberal Party.
8:28 – We have the first batch of postal votes reporting, and it’s a swing of less than 6% to the Liberal Party (although it might not be comparing like-with-like). All the same, that’s not enough for the Liberal Party to be winning.
With 25 booths reporting and the 2PP swing currently sitting on 3.48%, I’m calling that Labor will win the Dunkley by-election.
8:20 – We now have 22 booths reporting the 2PP figure, and while there was a slight uptick in the swing it’s now dropped back to just 2.8%.
And we now have 30 booths reporting primary votes, including a pre-poll booth in Mount Eliza where Labor gained primary votes.
8:07 – After 17 2PP booths, the Liberal swing is back up to 3.3%. By the way I thought I would generate my end-of-night map early to see if there’s any trends. Generally it looks like the Liberal Party’s biggest swings are along the south-eastern fringe of the seat.
7:55 – Well the 2PP swing continues to shrink down to 2.49% after thirteen booths, although I expect when we get up to around 20 booths it will be a bit bigger.
7:48 – The 2PP swing has dropped further, to just 2.67%, but the last four primary vote booths to report have reduced the swing to Labor, so that could be a sign of the Liberal 2PP swing bumping up when those booths report a preference count.
7:43 – We now have 2PP figures for ten booths, and the swing to the Liberal Party is down to 3.3%. Meanwhile the Liberal primary vote swing is just under 7% off 17 booths, with Labor up 1.76%.
7:36 – We’re now up to six 2PP booths, with Labor down 4.3% overall. The Liberal Party gained a 3.95% swing in Skye and a 7.79% swing in Karingal Central. These numbers at the moment are not strong enough for the Liberal Party to win, but there’s still a lot of booths yet to report.
7:22 – The 2PP swing in Mt Eliza Central was actually 0.8% to Labor. The overall swing is down to 4.1%.
7:21 – With ten booths reporting primary votes, the swing to Labor is up to 1.7%. I’m probably at the point where I won’t be reporting each individual booth swing, but Langwarrin North, Frankston South, Skye and Karingal Central have all reported.
7:16 – We’re continuing to see some really positive results for Labor. They’ve gained a 6% primary swing in Mount Eliza West. This means their primary vote swing overall after six booths is now 1.3% towards them.
7:14 – Another positive primary vote swing to Labor and modest swing to the Liberal Party in Seaford North.
7:13 – And we’ve got a 5.1% swing against Labor in Frankston Heights East. If that figure was replicated across the seat Labor would narrowly retain the seat.
7:12 – Just a 1.55% swing to Liberal Party on 2PP in Carrum Downs West.
7:10 – It turns out the third booth was Carrum Downs West, not Carrum Downs, and that booth has now reported 2PP figures. Overall it has brought the swing down to 6.8%, but I can’t see what the booth swing was there.
7:07 – Mount Eliza Central is the fourth booth to report primary votes and is much better for Labor than its northern neighbour. There’s a 3.9% swing to Labor, and a swing of just 0.4% to the Liberal Party.
7:00 – And Mount Eliza North’s two-party-preferred figures are now in, with a 9.98% swing to the Liberal Party. But we already know the next two booths were not quite so bad for Labor.
6:57 – Carrum Downs and Frankston Heights East have now reported, and the swing against Labor is down to just 1.6%, and the swing to the Liberals is down to 9.8%. Still a good start for the Liberal Party but a bit more modest.
6:51 – The first booth is Mount Eliza North, and it shows a 13% swing to the Liberal Party and a 6.2% swing away from Labor. There has also been a 4.85% swing away from the Greens there. It’s worth noting that three right-wing parties polled 3.9% there in 2022 but aren’t running today, so that may be exaggerating the Liberal swing, but overall not a good start for Labor.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the federal by-election for the Victorian seat of Dunkley. Join me as we follow the results tonight.
Alright, it’s time!
Look fwd to seeing results
ABC election coverage: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024
Presumably the votes will take time as the booths will be big.
Still nothing yet.
First booth is in!
Three booths are now in, the ABC has the Liberals in front at the moment with 53.7% TPP.
What we are seeing is a big swing to the Liberals and a swing against Labor. Currently the swing to the Liberals is 10%.
*10% TPP swing
As expected, Labor with their margin cut to about 2-3% baring any significant change on postals and early votes. The Libs have no business here in Victoria because Dutton has 0 appeal. and what has the Liberal candidate done for the people of Frankston other than just being ”the mayor”?
This swings are all over the place, too early to call at the moment, this is fascinating to watch.
Labor is ahead for the first time in the count, but only by a bee’s dick.
It is interesting that the Greens vote seems to have tanked. Any local intel on that?
Nether, The coalition has not won a by-election from Labor since 1995. Why would it happen this time? It hasn’t happened in almost 30 years.
Alp win?
@Redistributed it’s particularly fascinating to see the Greens vote just getting worse every time I reload the results page. At least in Fadden there was a Legalise Cannabis candidate who probably won over some less extreme ex-Greens voters.
@Daniel T I’m not saying it will. It certainly could though.
However I do hope Nathan Conroy wins.
currently predicted 2.2% swing after 11 booths. Dutton better be watching his back.
The trend seems to be 3 to 4% to the liberals….abc sites shows 15% counted
Probably not enough to get rid of Dutton though, unfortunately.
It’s close at the moment. The ABC still hasn’t called it yet.
Still no booths from Frankston itself. That’s what will count.
Labor is up 1.6% in the Frankston booth. There is only 3 booths not in.
It’s not close at all.
@Tom it’s still considered too close to call since the ABC hasn’t called it yet and only 42.9% of the votes have been counted. The Liberals have likely gained booths in Frankston South and Langawarrin.
Victorian Socialist vote is 2% – they didn’t run last time & AJP has increased 0.8% both competitors for Greens votes
Its not too close to call. Antony called the last federal election over an hour after every other news station.
It’s over. Embarrassing loss for Dutton. Needs to smile more and have some policies.
Ben has seen enough
@Tom the ABC still says “ALP ahead”. This means they haven’t called it.
Embarrassing? How? There’s a swing TO the Liberals!
I expect the postals to give a first preference lead to the Liberals but Labor is most likely going to narrowly hang on.
I know they haven’t called it. Like I said, Antony is always the last to call it. The website you are currently posting on has called it. Everyone else has already called it. It’s over.
Embarrassing because the average swing against a govt in a by election is 7%. There is never a swing to the government unless you count Aston which hadn’t happened for a 100 years (which showed how bad the LNP is). Dutton is going to be lucky to get half of that here in Dunkley.
@Tom the average swing isn’t 7% that’s just what Albo said. I fact checked this earlier during the week. There have only been six federal by-elections in the past 20 years where the winning party has had a swing of at least 7% to or against them. I have also said Labor is likely winning. But I still think the Liberals will end up with a higher primary vote.
Say Labor won, not likely winning.
Prediction:
Primaries:
Liberal: 40% (+7.5%)
Labor: 39% (–1.2%)
Greens: 6% (–4.3%)
TPP:
Labor: 52% (–4.3%)
Liberal: 48% (+4.3%)
Prediction: Labor hold (–4.3%)
Antony finally called it. You still holding on?
The ABC has called it for Labor. The current swing to the Liberals on TPP is 3.9%.
@Tom I literally put predictions above so stop harassing me. My predictions stand. 40% Liberal primary, 48% Liberal TPP. I called it before Antony Green did.
Nathan Conroy has called Jodie Belyea and conceeded.
Still only you NP who won’t say labor has won.
Prepolls are starting to come in. Mount Eliza PPVC has a 56% Liberal TPP. The Carrum Downs and Frankston PPVCs still don’t have preference counts, but I would say on preliminary prepoll figures Labor would win both of those. They will definitely win the Frankston PPVC but Carrum Downs could be won by the Liberals if they get a higher primary vote than Labor in later counts.
@Tom I just said Labor won. I just also gave predictions for the final primary and TPP votes.
Nathan Conroy managing a swing even though he lost is a good achievement and something tells me his time with the Liberals isn’t over yet. This might flip in 2025, who knows? We’ll just have to wait and see.
I think having Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy as the candidate did definitely help as it gave locals a familiar face to vote for. And it’s clear that Dunkley is divided between red north and blue south. The northern end towards Frankston and Carrum Downs is Labor while the southern end towards Mount Eliza, Frankston South and Langawarrin is Liberal.
When was the last time a governments primary vote went up in a by election?
@Tom
Aston this time last year, Labor had an 8% swing in their favour
@Tom in Aston.
It’s a win for the Liberals though because it’s a 5% swing in Melbourne.
Yeh but Aston hadn’t happened in over 100 years.
*4%, typo sorry
@Tom before Aston it was Eden-Monaro. The Coalition were in government and the Liberals won the primary vote at the by-election but Labor narrowly held on.
@John is in Dunkley right now, I think he’s at the Liberal after-party.
I was trying to find him in the crowd, but when it’s 90% old white men it made it pretty hard.
I think he means other than the Aston anomaly. This by-election again shows how useless the Victorian Liberals are at getting votes.
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