It has been looking more and more likely that Tasmania would be going to an election in recent weeks, with the premier, Jeremy Rockliff, demanding new assurances from two ex-Liberal independents and threatening to go to an election if those demands weren’t met.
Those two independents didn’t show much interest in agreeing with the premier’s demands, and today this has led to the premier calling an election. It appears likely that the election will be held on the 23rd of March, but that hasn’t been confirmed.
I have now unlocked my guide to the Tasmanian election, which features results maps and tables, history and geography of each electorate. There is a comment section and a list of candidates which will be a work in progress until nominations close.
You can read the guide here, or use this map to click through to each of the five electorates:
The Tasmanian House of Assembly will be expanding from 25 to 35 seats at this election, with the five electorates each electing seven members, up from the five members each elected from 1998 until 2021.
Political science suggests we should expect an increased variety of parties receiving votes, and getting elected, and that seems to fit with the current circumstances. While Tasmania’s lower house was almost monopolised by Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens for most of the last forty years, we saw a number of strong independents in 2021, and this time there will possibly be more. The lower quota might also open the door for the Jacqui Lambie Network.
Yes, Grattan, IPA, Mezies etc. But I was thinking more of the difference between say RSPCA and Animals Australia, one does charitable work as well as some advocacy, one is pure activism/advocacy. This is just one example, but they abound across at least the sectors I mentioned above.
I would normally agree Mark – except I think this stuff is actually key to this election, assuming the Libs don’t get to 18.
This just in, not for profit activists are the ones who control the media and political discourse. Not media company shareholders, not advertisers, not big business, in fact money has nothing to do with the media at all!
Honestly, this is such a blinkered and naive worldview that isn’t worth taking seriously.
Wilson, I think Labor Voter is referring to the fact that some legislation like animal rights only get up after these non-profit orginisations release footage or research to government organisations, which in turn results in the government taking action about it.
Whilst it can be good on paper, on many occasions like the ban on live exports it can be seen as a ‘knee jerk’ reaction that is not thought through or properly discussed with all stakeholders.
Exactly Yoh An.
Which comes back around to the fact that ‘power’ in this context does not just reside with wealthy media moguls, although it obviously does as well.
And looping back to this election, this is the issue Labor has, because many of its voters feel (and it is no necessarily a direct thought line) just as alienated from this power structure as the traditional big business money, but also see their jobs more associated with big business it is easy for a not insignificant number to slip away, while on the other side the votes only come back as preferences, making it much harder for Labor to get a majority, particularly under a system like Hare-Clark.
Sorry for the stream of consciousness
Animal rights is a minor issue that does not signify true power over media, and knee-jerk reactions are the responsibility of the government of the day anyway. I’m more interested in the overall slant of the media regarding the major parties in general, and economic policies in particular. All attempts to address the numerous tax benefits and offsets from asset ownership have been pilloried in the media, as have all attempts to tax carbon pollution and almost all attempts implement windfall taxes on major corporations. And that certainly wasn’t the word of not for profit activists.
*work of
@ MLV
I empathise with what appears to be your underlying concern that Labor’s polling in Tassie is weak and that their prospects for forming government are complicated.
However, your reasoning for why Labor is struggling is ridiculous. The crazy conspiracy theories you adopt are those of the far-right.
If you think that:
1. Advocates for special interests have more power than advocates for wealthy self-interests, and
2. That advocacy groups are contributing to Labor’s problems…
…then I have a Tasman Bridge to sell you.
As an example, why isn’t Labor implementing Peta Murphy’s anti-gambling recommendations, as supported by social advocacy groups? Perhaps they’re more influenced by the wealthy pro-gambling clubs, gaming, and sports lobbies?
It is quite possible that neither alp or libs cannot formally govt without the help of more than 1 group or party eg libs 14 or 15
Jln 2 or 3…. looks similar for alp 10 to 11. Remember the magic number is 18 seats out of 35
Should read ‘ can format go t without”
Sportsbet odds:
Party winning government (i.e supplying the Premier):
Liberal: $1.15
Labor: $7.00
Greens: $51.00
Any other party: $101.00
Government formed:
Liberal minority: $1.60
Liberal majority: $4.25
Labor minority: $6.50
Labor majority: $34.00
Any other government: $101.00
According to the statewide seat totals betting, Sportsbet seems to be predicting that the Liberals will win between 13 and 18 seats. It also predicts that Labor will win between 10 and 12 seats.
It has betting for the seat totals in each individual electorate but there seems to be an error with the betting for Bass (the odds would have it most likely that only six members would be elected and that somehow the seventh seat is vacant).
What I can say though is that the odds are predicting the Liberals will win a plurality of seats in every electorate except Clark, where Labor will win the most seats. Sportsbet also predicts that the Greens will win three seats (one each in Clark, Franklin and Lyons), the JLN will win two seats (one each in Braddon and Lyons) and there will be two independents in the next Parliament (one each in Clark and Franklin).
Therefore, if Labor only wins 10 seats, the Liberals would have 18, a bare majority but with the new seat totals it would be considered a landslide victory.
I want the chocolate fountain he’d have my vote if I was a resident
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