Polls have just closed in south-eastern Australia in the Voice referendum. Polls will close in 30 minutes in South Australia, in one hour in Queensland, an hour and a half in the Northern Territory, and three hours in Western Australia.
I’ll be on ABC Radio tonight – local, Radio National and News Radio – as part of their coverage. If I get a chance I’ll add a link to the broadcast.
You can use this as an open thread.
I’ll be back tomorrow with analysis of the results.
Peterborough, Vic a remote rural booth. Observation that the number of voters today were really low. Possibly people visiting Warrnambool decided to vote early there. If this is a trend then small rural booths are struggling to justify their existence.
Cunningham and Newcastle, and quite likely, Richmond (pending prepolls and postals), are the only majority Yes seats outside capital city metropolitan areas.
Australia voted No to the Voice on the same day New Zealand voted to replace its Labour government with a National/ACT coalition government.
Observations:
Relatively strong Green areas (and ALP seats where their main threat is the Greens) voted Yes.
Same goes for relatively strong teal areas (and LNP seats where their main threat is the Teals) voted Yes.
Working and middle class areas voted no, with white working class stronger for No than multicultural working class. Seems like the more material concerns voters have, the less inclined they were to vote yes (though conservative retiree areas were also pretty strong for no). Perhaps a “why do they care about this and not about you” sentiment
I think the LNP will take away from this that an anti-woke strategy could carry a majority of the country as long as you can detach voters from their usual loyalties. Maybe the ALP will also follow suit.
An observation from scrutineering tonight:- Yes/No answers make it really easy to get out of the booth early. Not having to worry about preferences or multiple ways of making a mistake on the ballot paper also means informals were surprisingly low.
On the booth itself it was interesting to see the very low turnout by campaign workers on both sides and the number of familiar ALP and LNP branch members who decided to take the day off. Consequently there were also new people who were not previously active.
A quick look at the seats and there’s almost a straight line correlation between median income and voting Yes, especially in the Green and Teal electorates. On the flip side in outer urban areas such as Rankin, Oxley and Longman the No vote in ALP areas was particularly high.
Interestingly enough there’s also a weak correlation between the proportion of Indigenous people in an electorate and the No vote. It would be enlightening to do a breakdown by booth for the significant indigenous regional and remote areas.
@ John
In Melbourne the Yes Side did much better in low SES suburbs they even won some booths in places like Albion, St Albans Springvale, Noble Park Derrimut, Cairnlea, Broadmeadows, Dandenong, Hampton Park & Doveton. Meadow Heights is interesting as it ranged from 52-55% No which is close to the state average and much better for Yes than the national avergage this suburb is known for the biggest anti-lockdown sentiment. It is even better than the Yes result in wealthier areas such as Mitchell. In Melbourne the Yes side also did well in Growth areas such as Tarneit, Clyde & Mickleham.
How did Moreton go from Projected 56% Yes to 50-50?
@Daniel T early votes and postals
@Daniel T Because people don’t tell the truth in surveys, in most cases they answer in a way that they think would make the questioner feel best about them. It’s like visiting the doctor – I only have a couple of drinks a week, I generally have early nights, I exercise regularly and I always watch what I eat. And the doctor knows you’re lying, but at least you’re lying consistently so he can adjust for that. Pollsters can’t adjust for the fibbage.
Interestingly a few seats in Western Sydney (e.g. Fowler, Watson, Werriwa) have a higher %Yes vote for the voice than for Same Sex Marriage. Will be interesting to see the results mapped to religion – IIRC religious groups were largely supportive of the voice or at least neutral though some exceptions (e.g. Lyle Shelton).
@Mark Yore that phenomenon is real and leads to things like the supposed “shy Tory effect”. “Social desirability bias” leads to campaigners overestimating the importance of climate change etc. But pollsters can and do adjust to it with things like robo polling. Polls seem to have largely gotten the referendum right.
However Daniel T was talking about the results coming in – Moreton’s prepolls were 10% weaker than on the day votes for Yes.
They are connected ideas – people who have made up their mind and will vote in a way they don’t really want to talk about and are sick of hearing about may find pre-polling appealing.
@John I have to say I’m looking forward to a bit of a break from John Farnham… Prepolls and postals always trend more conservative because those voters are generally older and more organised. From an organisational standpoint, the LNP generally runs better postal campaigns than the ALP (and minor party campaigns are practically non-existent). At a by-election for an outer Brisbane seat we had the Greens candidate go completely off his rocker at the AEC because he turned up on the day before the election complaining that nobody had told him people could prepoll.
On another note, the polling booth results for Leichardt and Lingari are interesting. Durack isn’t in yet. Looking at the Remote Mobile Teams and some of the TSI communities like Horn and Thursday Islands there’s a pretty large variation from area to area. I’m also going to take a guess and say that it’s going to be nowhere near an 80% Yes vote.
On the correlation between income and the yes vote…
How much is income being used as an approximation for relative levels of education?
Perhaps education provides a better explanation for the distribution of results than income?
It seems that areas with a large South Asian Population has a large Yes Vote. To my knowledge Indians tend to be supportive of the Voice probably due to cultural reasons
@ Marh
I agree it seems to be the case it also seems that YES did badly in areas with large Italian/ethnic European communities such as Niddrie, Keilor, Mill Park, Bulleen, Five Dock, Taylors Hill, St Georges District, in Fowler the Abbotsbury booth returned a 75% No vote while Cabramatta West actually narrowly voted Yes in Canley Vale/Cabramatta had a 50-53% no. The areas which large Muslim communities were generally a Soft No and close to the state average despite these areas being much lower socio-economically. I mentioned how Meadow Heights did not return a thumping No vote rather it was close to state average
To my knowledge, Chinese-heavy areas are largely mixed with Box Hill surprisingly having a lean Yes vote as there are many are young new immigrants that may have faced racial prejudice and 50-50 for many Chinese Areas in Australia possibly driven by the highly educated and mostly young 1.75-2nd generation voting mostly Yes and the only areas where the No vote is heavy in Chinese areas are Hurstville and Doncaster as they are more dominated by older Chinese immigrants
It was interesting to see lakemba north (the most muslim booth in the country) return a yes vote despite being located in a sea of no booths. it was a similar story in moreton where kuraby (queenslands most muslim booth) returned a yes vote despite neighbouring suburbs (predominantly dominated by chinese immigrants) voted safely no. does anyone know how the cocos keeling island booth voted as it would be interesting to see if lingiari’s pattern of the more rural booths voting yes was emulated even in areas which are not majority indigenous?
An interesting thing of note in Melbourne is that support for the Voice seems to be stronger along the train lines. Take Chisholm and Hotham for example – along the Lilydale/Belgrave line, Glen Waverley line and Cranbourne/Pakenham line there is still majority support for the Voice. It’s the in between areas where you find majority no votes – eastern Glen Waverley, Burwood East/Vermont South and Wheeler’s Hill in Chisholm, Mulgrave/Noble Park North and Clarinda in Hotham.
When looking at seats with large Chinese-Australian communities, there’s a correlation between high-income and degree attainment and Yes vote. In North Sydney and Bradfield, along the Pacific Highway, the votes where quite in favour of Yes. In Reid in Rhodes and Wentworth Point, where voters are also young and educated but earn less than on the north shore, there is a smaller majority.
Drummoyne in Reid is typically Liberal voting (not Green nor Labor) and yet booths around there are Yes majority. It’s like Bradfield. It may be because it’s next to Grayndler.
@Louis. In Lakemba and Wiley Park, the typical resident is South Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) and/or Muslim. I read that Indian-Australian voters are more likely to vote for the voice. Other South Asian-Australians may be similar. Over to the west have more people of Middle-Eastern ancestry, though Islam is also the most popular religion.
@Votante, one thing I did notice was that in many seats, the areas with larger Chinese-Australian populations had a lower Yes/higher No vote compared to the other comparable areas. In Bradfield and North Sydney, Chatswood had a relatively low Yes vote despite the high density. In Moreton, Sunnybank and surroundings had the highest No vote. Similarly in Reid, the areas with the highest No vote were Burwood and Strathfield while in Bennelong, Eastwood had the high No vote. In Kooyong, Balwyn had the lowest Yes vote. It’s not a universal trend though, for example in Chisholm, Box Hill had the highest Yes vote apart from the Monash Uni booth. It’s not a trend that is as obvious as in the last federal election but still interesting to observe, especially with regards to what can be learnt in campaigning in this community, something both parties seem to be struggling with.
I should add that Chisholm might not be the best example because unlike many seats, basically every suburb in the seat has a large Chinese population.
However, bear in mind that many Chinese in Australia only have permanent residents and do not have Australian Citizenship due to China’s ban on multiple citizenship.
Is there any way to find the referendum voting results from the populated overseas territories? I’m especially interested in Cocos, or are they hidden as remote voting teams or all done by postal votes?
No I don’t think so.
Cocos Island is Remote Mobile Team 21. Christmas Island is Remote Mobile Team 20.
https://results.aec.gov.au/29581/Website/ReferendumDivisionResults-29581-306.htm
Thanks for that @Votante. Do you know where I would find Norfolk? ACT somewhere right?
Don’t worry found Norfolk. Thanks.
There seems to be a correlation between the Yes Vote and those who oppose Australia Day on 26 January.
Focaldata Age group on Support of the Voice
18-24 (63%)
25-34 (58%)
35-49 (45%)
50-64 (32%)
65+ (20%)
Roy Morgan Poll on if January 26 is Invasion Day (Early 2023)
18-24 (56%)
25-34 (53%)
35-49 (41%)
50-64 (27%)
65+ (19%)
I say that the overwhelming majority who switched from a Yes to No vote tended to supported Australia Day being on January 26 the Yes Vote declined so much to the extent that by the time it finally plateaued the only Yes voters were those who view 26 January as Invasion Day.
I feel that Voice Referendum results has created possible future scenarios regarding Australia Day and Indigenous issues
– January 26 being Australia Day rebumped positive support and decrease support on other Indigenous issues for the long term due to the “Majority has decided” effect
– Bump might be short term but may not last as things like Indigenous crisis worsens, younger generation continue being sceptical to Australia Day, older generation pass away and country being more educated and ethnically diverse, this may cause make these issues flare again as the younger generation might feel angry at the older generation being viewed ignorant
– The worst case scenario would be Indigenous issues accelerated years after the referendum where a final straw may happen (anything like George Floyd or Cronulla Riots etc) which may cause a civil unrest
Interesting that Christmas Island and Cocos Island voted overwhelmingly Yes. These are one the of the few majority minority regions of Australia. In Christmas Island, Chinese are the largest Ethnicity and Cocos Island is Malay Muslim majority. In the case of Cocos Island, it was almost 70% Yes.
I also have to wonder if most of the voters who switch Yes in early 2023 to No Vote later in were pretty much those who views Australia Day on January 26 positively?
There seems to be a correlation between the Yes Vote and those who oppose Australia Day on 26 January.
Focaldata Age group on Support of the Voice (Oct 2023)
18-24 (63%)
25-34 (58%)
35-49 (45%)
50-64 (32%)
65+ (20%)
Roy Morgan Poll on if January 26 is Invasion Day (January 2023)
18-24 (56%)
25-34 (53%)
35-49 (41%)
50-64 (27%)
65+ (19%)
It makes me wonder if the Yes Vote only ended up winning votes who tended to view January 26 as Invasion Day
@Marh I agree with your conclusion. I suspect the Change the Date movement has suffered a big set back because of this.
@Adam, Yes, The Voice Referendum would certainly in the short term have a rebump in support of Australia Day and a decrease in support for dealing with indigenous issues (Constitution recognition without the voice, Treaty) due to the “Majority has spoken” effect
But I had created 4 possible long-term scenarios:
A) Anti-indigenous populist policies become hot-button issues with the LNP beginning to embrace these policies such as Mandating Australia Day on Jan 26, Remove Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island Flags and Welcome to the Country, Strict rules in Indigenous Communities, and Rollback Indigenous Programs all to wedge against Labor on “Somewhat Conservative” Swing Voters. This already happening with a SA council removing the Welcome to the Country ceremony and Qld LNP walking back the treaty. However, they may lead to D) at the same time
B) More of the same but the long-term support for “Changing the Date” and certain indigenous issues remains much lower than the peak (2022-early 2023) with the demographic gap for such views (educated and younger generation) narrows however people may support pragmatic indigenous policies whilst not becoming a priority again
C) Weaker Short-term Term Bump but as the Indigenous crisis worsens, the younger generation continues to be skeptical on Australia Day, The New generation might hear the results negatively, the older generation passes away and the country becomes more educated and ethnically diverse, this may make these issues flare again as the younger generation might feel angry at the older generation being viewed ignorant
D) Indigenous issues accelerated years after the referendum where a final straw may happen (anything like George Floyd or Cronulla Riots etc) which may cause civil unrest which may either reaccelerate support for these issues especially among the younger generation as it happened for BLM in 2020 however this may also lead to A) at the same time as Australian are typically very apathetic to politics and Political Movements (after all it is weak and an average Joe would not protest regardless of any situation unlike the French and Americans) and may see this as causing instability.
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