Federal redistributions have recently commenced in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.
The AEC yesterday published the enrolment data to be used to draw New South Wales federal electorates.
There are two sets of data – enrolment data as of August 2023, and projected enrolments as of April 2028. This data has been published at the level of SA1, but for this post I’m just looking at it at the electorate and regional level.
Electorates must be drawn within 10% of the average as of August 2023, but just 3.5% of the average as of April 2028. That latter number is thus more important, and there are some notable differences.
I’ve previously written about possible enrolment trends twice, but that was only based on current enrolments.
This next table groups electorates into nine regions, and shows how much each region falls short or exceeds the quota. So if a region currently has six electorates, but is projected to only have 5.2251 quotas, that is written as -77.49.
When you compare the two sets of numbers, you see that the projections are expected to increase Sydney’s population relative to regional NSW by about half a seat between now and early 2028.
That growth is entirely within the north-west and south-west of Sydney. Those areas collectively have about the right number of voters at the moment for their eleven seats (impressive considering NSW is losing one seat), but by April 2028 are projected to have 80% of an extra seat’s population.
The north coast and the Hunter regions are just slightly over quota. When you look at the map, most of that surplus is in Paterson, which is 11.7% over quota.
Western NSW is quite a long way under quota, but about a third of that can be sorted by taking in some extra voters from the Hunter.
In Sydney, there is a very stark difference between the east and west. The six electorates in northern Sydney, stretching as far west as Bennelong and Berowra, fall 78% of a seat short of a quota. I can’t see how they avoid abolishing one seat in this area.
In central and southern Sydney, these ten seats are also almost 80% of a seat short of a quota, so again I suspect a seat could be abolished in that area. The seat of Wentworth is more than 20% under quota, but it won’t be abolished because it fits neatly into its corner. It’s more likely a seat like Blaxland would be abolished, as the deficits of all the seat further east accumulate.
But NSW only needs to lose one seat! So this frees up one seat to be created somewhere else, and the obvious choice would be straddling the north-west and south-west. Just two seats in the south-west (Macarthur and Werriwa) are projected to have more than 2.5 seats worth of enrolment by April 2028.
There’s also about a half quota of surplus enrolment projected to join Lindsay, Greenway, Chifley and Mitchell between them. Plus if the northern suburbs lose one seat, they’ll have about 1/5th of surplus voters to be added to Mitchell or Parramatta.
Antony Green pointed out on my podcast, and again in his excellent blog post from yesterday, that it’s likely that this will force the commissioners to draw a seat crossing Windsor Road, which currently separates Mitchell from Greenway, and is usually a strong electoral boundary.
Once they have sorted out all the internal changes within Sydney, losing one electorate, Sydney will collectively have about one quarter of a seat of surplus population. Meanwhile there will be about a quarter of a seat’s deficit in western NSW electorates.
The easiest way to resolve this imbalance is through the seat of Hume, which has a bizarre set of boundaries which include Goulburn and the Wollondilly and Camden areas, but skip over much of the Southern Highlands in between. Shifting Hume further into Sydney would resolve that imbalance.
That’s it for now. If you want to see the quotas for each seat, check out the map below. Antony’s blog post also has some nice maps with the same data.
two points …… Banks could include Condell park…….. which means it contains east hills st Electorate. Hume Cook and Whitlam have strange boundaries and should be adjusted.
The other reason I believe tink will contest Bennelong is she may be coording with the other teals and if the woman who ran last time in Bradfield wishes to recontest she won’t want to run against her and split the vote so from a strategic standpoint this makes sense.
given that its already within quota and the fact i had to increase page to solve cowper im gonna leave richmond untouched. i wanted to tidy up the southern boundary to the river but wont be able to this time around
based on what im doing with lyne in regards to wauchope and port macquarie surrounds im think about moving more of port stephens into lyne
Lyne– Current Enrollment 126513 – Projected enrollment 132775
After redistribution – Enrollment 119682 – Projected enrollment 125811
Paterson – Current Enrollment 126513 – Projected enrollment 132775
After redistribution – Enrollment 125162 – Projected enrollment 133802
paterson correction
Paterson – Current Enrollment 135332 – Projected enrollment 144824
After redistribution – Enrollment 125162 – Projected enrollment 133802
Might have been due to my starting borders, but had to spend a number of hours wrangling the 3 divisions in the outer south-west of Sydney.
There’s a pretty hard mathematical constraint in that each seat cannot have total growth of more than 13.5% of a quota between the current and projected dates, meaning that the areas around Leppington need to be carefully divided evenly between at least 3 divisions. Taken together, the Camden, Campbelltown, and Liverpool LGAs grow from 2.94 quotas to 3.29 quotas, or by 0.35 of a quota between the current and projected figures. Seats drawn here have to start quite close to to -10% lower bound so that they have room to grow without exceeding the 3.5% upper bound.
If your projected enrolment figures are within the 3.5% range, make sure you check that your current enrolment figures are also within the 10% range!
My 3 seats of Hume, Macarthur and Werriwa take in Wingecarribee, Wollondilly, Camden, Campbelltown, all of Liverpool LGA west of the ring road, and some small slices of Fairfield and Penrith LGAs. However, they now look nothing like their starting positions, having all rotated clockwise to evenly share the high growth areas centered around Leppington:
– Werriwa takes in all of Liverpool LGA between the border with Austral and the ring road, and the Northern half of Campbelltown LGA up to Claymore, Woodbine, Leumeah, and Ruse, bordering Campbelltown proper. This division contains the high growth areas of Prestons, Edmondson Park, Bardia, and Ingleburn.
– Macarthur gets stretched from Campbelltown into the Southern Highlands, instead of Hume, taking in Wingecarribee and all of Wollondilly south of Picton, plus all of Camden east of the Camden Bypass and Route 12. This division contains the high growth areas of Gledswood Hills, Gregory Hills, and Spring Farm.
– Hume takes in the rest of Camden, Liverpool and Wollondilly LGAs to become a seat blending the greenfield growth areas of the outer south-west with the surrounding lower density peri-urban areas. So this includes Camden proper, The Oaks to Wallacia thenacross to Horsley Park and the ring road, and then Austral, Leppington, Oran Park, and Narrellan.
Could quite easily swap or rename any of these seats as I’ve currently drawn them.
Curious to hear how others have drawn this area.
ive just tallied up lake macquarie and the population of the stuff west and north of the swansea channel comes to 123336 + 127681 projected once you remove Morriset, wangi wangi and Bonnells Bay SA2s.
Shortland – Current Enrollment 121387 – Projected enrollment 122767
After redistribution – Current Enrollment 123336 – Projected enrollment 12768
obviously my plans to abolish shortland now are abandoned
I’ve just moved mine around in the south west and south coast, I think I’m a lot happier now.
I’ve split Goulburn back out of Riverina, adding Snowy Valleys and Yass in. Goulburn then goes back into Hume with Wingecarribee, Wollondilly and most of the parts of Camden they already have (except parts of Narellan, Liverpool and Penrith).
As a result, Eden-Monaro now moves further along the coast taking all of Eurobodalla which pushes Gilmore into Albion Park.
This then pushes Whitlam into Balgownie and Fairy Meadow while keeping the coastal areas in Cunningham. All of Sutherland is now split between Cook and Cunningham.
Hughes becomes entirely Liverpool – Campbelltown based, taking everything south of Cabramatta Creek and all the parts of Werriwa south of Camden Valley Way.
Macarthur takes Narellan Vale and Mount Annan, while everything else north of that goes into Werriwa.
Werriwa is still delicately balanced at 109k current and 133k projected.
One could argue that the old Hughes is abolished, Werriwa takes Liverpool and a new division makes up the west of Liverpool and Camden, but I like the way they are now rotated – although the guidelines state that the division I called Hughes would actually be Werriwa. But this way the name Hughes gets to be kept which makes sense.
Political implications: I don’t know and I don’t really care.
@Hawkeye_au
Agree it’s going to be fun, but on those boundaries there no way Tink would contest that North Sydney. She’d either contest a Bradfield (containing Northbridge) or a Bennelong (containing Lane Cove).
@High Street – I would imagine that you are correct. Zali will push Tink out on those boundaries. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe she lives closer to Naremburn, so on the boundaries I have given, I think she would be more likely to contest Bradfield. She definitely wouldn’t want to contest Bennelong on those boundaries, given the strengths of both Lane Cove and Hunters Hill.
The big loser out of this would then become Nicolette Boele. Her only seat of opportunity on this redsitribution would become Berowra and she would struggle against Julian Leeser
@Hawkeye_au – not sure of the point of your comment about strengths of both Lane Cove and Hunters Hill – do you mean Liberal strength? Her problem in any configuration of Bennelong is to come 2nd on primary votes in a marginal seat. Hunters Hill helps her as she comes an easy second there and similarly she does very well in the Harbourside parts of Lane Cove, even somewhere like Greenwich where the Labor 2PP was actually very strong before she came along. The rest of Lane Cove is pretty mixed – she was beaten by Labor and came second at many booths. All up, she’d have to be well ahead of Labor in HH and Lane Cove combined to stay ahead across the whole electorate and I think think be too far behind the Liberals to catch up – so smashing Labor here – where she is known – would be her only hope.
She has lived for many years in Northbridge and is well known as a Northbridge local. The media has reported that she has sold up there (gas heated pool and all) and move to Lane Cove. I think she is expecting Lane Cove and Northbridge to be in the same seat after the redistribution (if she’s even given it any thought). I am of the view that of all the Teal’s she is the most likely to say “One (term) and done”.
Tink just shot herself in the foot by condemning Israel.
Together hunter and Shortland can make two divisions without any territory changes. Simply move the sa2s around with Shortland beinga northern lake Macquarieseat this will make Shortland safe for Labor and hunter marginal possibly even notionally liberal. The flow on effects will mean dobell and Robertson won’t need any changes. This will in turn mean calare Wong change the way I want and Macquarie won’t be able to be split as I was hoping. I should have all my regional seats completed today or tomorrow and then it will be on to sydney
Shortland – Current Enrollment 121387 – Projected enrollment 122767
After redistribution – Current Enrollment 123336 – Projected enrollment 127681
Hunter– Current Enrollment 131588 – Projected enrollment 135536
After redistribution – Enrollment 125559 – Projected enrollment 130622
shortland correction
Shortland – Current Enrollment 117337 – Projected enrollment 122767
After redistribution – Current Enrollment 123336 – Projected enrollment 127681
Macquarie can be solve by transferring Emu Plains from Lindsay and Oberon from Calare. this will allow the boundary of lindasy and macquarie to be the hawkesbury river
calare update
Calare– Current Enrollment 122798 – Projected enrollment 126537
After redistribution – Enrollment 129808 – Projected enrollment 133720
Macquarie – Current Enrollment 108671 – Projected enrollment 117867
After redistribution – Enrollment 122534 – Projected enrollment 132572
Hume – Current Enrollment 125549 – Projected enrollment 138104
After redistribution – Enrollment 119778 – Projected enrollment 126141
I have removed Cobbity, Spring Farm, Mount Annan and Elderslie from Hume and added Robertson, Southern Highlands, Moss Vale, MIttagong, Bowral and Hill Top from Whitlam
Whitlam – Current Enrollment 128272 – Projected enrollment 132897
After redistribution – Enrollment 126609 – Projected enrollment 128501
Cunningham – Current Enrollment 118123 – Projected enrollment 117869
After redistribution – Enrollment 131304 – Projected enrollment 1333053
ive effectively abolished hughes but given its name derives from a prime minister Cunningham is abolished and Hughes takes over muhc of its former territory
@darren ive abolished cunningham and moved hughes south.
based on the numbers im looking at golmore will have to expand into shellharbour as for eden monaro to meet quota it has to expand into gilmore.
Eden-Monaro – Current Enrollment 116732 – Projected enrollment 124402
After redistribution – Enrollment 119015 – Projected enrollment 127425
Gilmore – Current Enrollment 128991 – Projected enrollment 134884
After redistribution – Enrollment 119015 – Projected enrollment 127425
whitlam and cunningham update
Whitlam – Current Enrollment 128272 – Projected enrollment 132897
After redistribution – Enrollment 130799 – Projected enrollment 131725
Cunningham – Current Enrollment 118123 – Projected enrollment 117869
After redistribution – Enrollment 127485 – Projected enrollment 131114
If the Illawarra were to become one seat, with the north going to Hughes and the South going to Gilmore – what’s the political outcome?? Do labor collect all three seats, or are they left with just one of the three.
Do we see a Jones vs Byrnes in this new seat? Or does Jones contest Gilmore knocking Phillips off (unlikely as both are in the left faction) or Byrnes contest Hughes? Doesn’t seems to be enough seats for these MPs.
there is an arguement to include complete state seats in Federal seats……. eg all of Coogee in Wentworth……. All of Blue mountains in one seat…… All of East Hills in Banks…… All of Heathcote in
hughes. All of Cronulla in Cook. etc.
there is an arguement to include complete state seats in Federal seats……. eg all of Coogee in Wentworth……. All of Blue mountains in one seat…… All of East Hills in Banks…… All of Heathcote in
hughes. All of Cronulla in Cook. etc.
@stew Rockdale most likely Gilmore becomes safe for Labor and Whitlam very safe. Eden Monaro becomes notionally liberal and ripe for the picking for Constance. Hughes would be marginal. Not sure which way.
Sutherland Shire accounts for 1.4 to 1.45 quotas. If Cook is drawn to be entirely Sutherland Shire and Cunningham gets the remainder, Cunningham seat would still be a majority Wollongong LGA electorate.
@John Eden-Monaro was 58.2% ALP at the last election. It is not going to become notionally Liberal.
@david walsh i meant to say close to. constance would easily win there either way
Macarthur – Current Enrollment 140280– Projected enrollment 171700
After redistribution – Enrollment 120829 – Projected enrollment 133056
Bradfield – Current Enrollment 109126 – Projected enrollment 109523
After redistribution – Enrollment 126342 – Projected enrollment 126833
Berowra – Current Enrollment 106739 – Projected enrollment 109154
After redistribution – Enrollment 123703 – Projected enrollment 126055
i was right all along bradfield takes in st leonards chatsood east, artamon, castle cove and willoughy sa2s from north sydney and chatswood west goes to bennelong with the boundary being the pacific highway and then berowra takes in the remainder of hornsby from bradfield.
YOU APPLAUD
Bennelong – Current Enrollment 116790 – Projected enrollment 122124
After redistribution – Enrollment 123698 – Projected enrollment 127439
sheds every west of the ryde lga and takes in the remainder of north sydney
Mitchell – Current Enrollment 126812 – Projected enrollment 148572
After redistribution – Enrollment 109234 – Projected enrollment 129752
sheds Northmead North Rocks and Winston Hills SA2s to parramatta
WA Figures just released by AEC
Mitchell – forgot to ad the boundary is effectively the m2
I’ve worked it out as follows:
* Relatively minor changes on North and Central Coast. Musswellbrook and Singleton into New England.
* Riverina takes in Snowy Valleys and Yass Valley LGAs
* Whitlam loses all its Southern Highlands component, and there are only 3 Divisions along the South Coast (Cunningham, Whitlam, Gilmore).
* Eden-Monaro is redrawn as a completely inland seat taking in Goulburn.
* North Sydney is abolished and all of Parramatta, Mitchell, Berowra and Bradfield rotate slightly clockwise to take in the gap.
* A new seat basically from the M4 to the M5 in outer western Sydney.
* Abolish Banks and divide it between Hughes and Barton.
* Cook goes back completely south of the Georges River.
* McMahon, Fowler, Werriwa, Macarthur all move generally northwards to allow space for the new seat.
I feel this works quite well. No need for anything too radical, and i think it addresses a few local sores in the process.
Greenway – Current Enrollment 125882 – Projected enrollment 144152
After redistribution – Enrollment 120736 – Projected enrollment 131396
loses toongable and pendle hill sa2s
@Mark Mulcair
What’s your boundary between Warringah and Bradfield, where North Sydney used to be? As well as Bennelong (which is not mentioned in your post)
I’ve moved Chifley south to take in the parts of Blacktown from McMahon still working on the northern boundary which will go into Lindsay. Which in turn will cede more territory to mcmahon
@High Street
Bennelong regains Hunters Hill/Gladesville so it uses the Lane Cove River as its boundary. All other boundaries the same.
The Warringah/Bradfield boundary would basically use the North Sydney LGA boundary.
Sorry @Mark Mulcair, should have asked this before – where is the Bradfield/Berrowa boundary – i,e, what does your new Bradfield look like?
My full report is almost done, hopefully I’ll get to submit it today.
Anyway, my map of all divisions (except Wentworth for some reason doesn’t show up) are on mapbox
https://api.mapbox.com/styles/v1/dmcsw/clnuxh0jd000601mvdafe944r.html?title=view&access_token=pk.eyJ1IjoiZG1jc3ciLCJhIjoiY2poa21kaGs4Mm95YjM2bzFxMmNkYmJnaCJ9.xhKyqTaibNsU01LzeWpjkw&zoomwheel=true&fresh=true#9.26/-33.7966/151.0015
Well Darren, thanks for posting your maps but to me it displays why there needs to be a serious attempt to find a different way to draw Mackellar and Warringah, as a seat that extends from habourside Greenwich and Longueville all the to national park facing North Turramurra and St. Ives Chase, is not a reasonable outcome for a north shore seat.
I’m very interested in alternative boundaries between this new Bradfield and new Berrowa, under scenarios where North Sydney gets abolished. Also in creative ways to draw the boundary with Mackellar and Bradfield. A seat modelled on the state seat of Davidson may have some merit
@darren il agree on some but not all
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P7W_KENKciV7UB8zDmMp74L4N-Y7fxe9/view?usp=share_link
Above are my rural districts. It was difficult to do the Macquarie split in a way that makes sense but I knew that if I didn’t do this, Hume would retain its weird configuration of Camden + Goulburn.
Most of these follow LGA boundaries with the exception of:
– The part of Calare-Macquarie border that cuts through Mid-Western Regional LGA follows the pre-2004 Rylstone-Mudgee LGA boundaries
– The part of Parkes-Farrer border that cuts through Murray River LGA follows the pre-2015 Wakool-Murray LGA boundaries
– Macquarie also includes Emu Plains
– Hume does not include any of Hill Top – Colo Vale (and Illawarra Catchment) SA2 but includes everything else in Wingecarribee LGA
The result of this is:
– Calare becomes an Orange/Dubbo-based seat
– Parkes is based on Broken Hill and maybe Griffith too (I know this is far larger than what some people think is appropriate, but it is still half the size of Durack)
– Farrer is based on the coaches line from Albury to Wagga Wagga via Deniliquin (I never understood why Albury and Wagga Wagga was never paired, especially given it now expands to Griffith instead and in 2006-2016 included areas all the way to Broken Hill!)
– Hume is based on Wingecarribee, Goulburn and Cootamundra
– Riverina is gone
I haven’t drawn southwest Sydney yet but I tried to account for knock-on effects in this area by calculating the total of 4 electorates in that area in advance (with some flexibility retained). Ditto with the 11 North Coast seats (incl Hunter and New England). For reference, Here is my Sydney area (and Gilmore/Eden-Monaro) as a reference:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1zjp8bTN7_lxMspLIqQIucxa7OtVwvzU&usp=sharing
Really nice job Darren.
@ High Street
> as a seat that extends from habourside Greenwich and Longueville all the to national park facing North Turramurra and St. Ives Chase, is not a reasonable outcome for a north shore seat.
It’s a continuous suburban corridor based around the Pacific Hwy and the T1 North Shore railway line. It’s fine.
That said, both seats could be more compact by retaining West Pymble in Bradfield and putting North Turramurra in Berowra.
@High Street
Bradfield/Berowra boundary would run along Kissing Point Road, Pacific Highway, Bobbin Head Road, Burns Road, and Branch of Cowan Creek.
So all the greater Hornsby area is united in Berowra.
Darren, from your map it appears that North Sydney is the seat which is clearly abolished, whilst Hughes undergoes a major change by losing its Sutherland Shire component and becoming a Liverpool based seat absorbing large areas from Werriwa. In essence, this revised Hughes could be seen as a newly created seat and could be renamed, although they may wish to keep the name as Billy Hughes was a well-known (albeit controversial) figure as PM.
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