Federal redistributions have recently commenced in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.
The AEC yesterday published the enrolment data to be used to draw New South Wales federal electorates.
There are two sets of data – enrolment data as of August 2023, and projected enrolments as of April 2028. This data has been published at the level of SA1, but for this post I’m just looking at it at the electorate and regional level.
Electorates must be drawn within 10% of the average as of August 2023, but just 3.5% of the average as of April 2028. That latter number is thus more important, and there are some notable differences.
I’ve previously written about possible enrolment trends twice, but that was only based on current enrolments.
This next table groups electorates into nine regions, and shows how much each region falls short or exceeds the quota. So if a region currently has six electorates, but is projected to only have 5.2251 quotas, that is written as -77.49.
When you compare the two sets of numbers, you see that the projections are expected to increase Sydney’s population relative to regional NSW by about half a seat between now and early 2028.
That growth is entirely within the north-west and south-west of Sydney. Those areas collectively have about the right number of voters at the moment for their eleven seats (impressive considering NSW is losing one seat), but by April 2028 are projected to have 80% of an extra seat’s population.
The north coast and the Hunter regions are just slightly over quota. When you look at the map, most of that surplus is in Paterson, which is 11.7% over quota.
Western NSW is quite a long way under quota, but about a third of that can be sorted by taking in some extra voters from the Hunter.
In Sydney, there is a very stark difference between the east and west. The six electorates in northern Sydney, stretching as far west as Bennelong and Berowra, fall 78% of a seat short of a quota. I can’t see how they avoid abolishing one seat in this area.
In central and southern Sydney, these ten seats are also almost 80% of a seat short of a quota, so again I suspect a seat could be abolished in that area. The seat of Wentworth is more than 20% under quota, but it won’t be abolished because it fits neatly into its corner. It’s more likely a seat like Blaxland would be abolished, as the deficits of all the seat further east accumulate.
But NSW only needs to lose one seat! So this frees up one seat to be created somewhere else, and the obvious choice would be straddling the north-west and south-west. Just two seats in the south-west (Macarthur and Werriwa) are projected to have more than 2.5 seats worth of enrolment by April 2028.
There’s also about a half quota of surplus enrolment projected to join Lindsay, Greenway, Chifley and Mitchell between them. Plus if the northern suburbs lose one seat, they’ll have about 1/5th of surplus voters to be added to Mitchell or Parramatta.
Antony Green pointed out on my podcast, and again in his excellent blog post from yesterday, that it’s likely that this will force the commissioners to draw a seat crossing Windsor Road, which currently separates Mitchell from Greenway, and is usually a strong electoral boundary.
Once they have sorted out all the internal changes within Sydney, losing one electorate, Sydney will collectively have about one quarter of a seat of surplus population. Meanwhile there will be about a quarter of a seat’s deficit in western NSW electorates.
The easiest way to resolve this imbalance is through the seat of Hume, which has a bizarre set of boundaries which include Goulburn and the Wollondilly and Camden areas, but skip over much of the Southern Highlands in between. Shifting Hume further into Sydney would resolve that imbalance.
That’s it for now. If you want to see the quotas for each seat, check out the map below. Antony’s blog post also has some nice maps with the same data.
Mitchell is very different to Greenway even though they border, and Mitchell even more different to the seat west of Greenway, Chifley, which in turn is different to the seat west of Chifley, Lindsay. You essentially have The Hills Shire in Mitchell, the City of Blacktown in Chifley and Greenway and then the City of Penrith and some other areas in Lindsay. The Hills has long been Liberal-dominated, upper-middle class and white-collar, while Blacktown has long been Labor-dominated, working-class and blue-collar. Penrith is a bit of a mix: while some might say that Labor will win Lindsay simply because they won Penrith albeit marginally (the Liberals were actually four votes ahead of Labor on primaries), but I should also point out that Penrith City Council is currently Liberal-controlled and that Lindsay also includes parts of the safe Liberal seat of Badgerys Creek and the safe Labor seat of Londonderry (which is held by Deputy Premier Pru Car), plus Lindsay is currently a safe Liberal seat. Crossing Windsor Road would create an odd electorate.
@ NP
I would say the Northern Part of Greenway like Stanhope Gardens, Kellyville Ridge, Kings Langley and the Ponds are demographically a spillover of the Hills District. In the Lead up to the 2004 elections the Libs targeted Greenway and were sucuessfull. This is a good article that explains the class divide within Greenway (Link below). Greenway was also close in 2019.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2004/07/28/greenway-to-heaven-and-a-religious-wedge/
I still doubt the commission will want to cross that Windsor Road boundary between Mitchell/The Hills and Greenway/Blacktown, but they will have to expand that Northern Sydney zone, either shifting North Sydney west toward Ryde Rd and then Bennelong west toward Parramatta, or by crossing Windsor Rd not between The Hills and Blacktown LGA’s but rather between The Hills and Hawkesbury LGA’s. I think my preferred solution would just be to run a conveyor of expansions from Mackellar into Warringah, into North Sydney, and then into Bradfield so that Hornsby, Berowra and the suburbs down Pennant Hills Rd to Beecroft would all be added to Bradfield. I’d rename Berowra Deerubbin and have it take the Hawkesbury end of Macquarie plus Rouse Hill and the northern exurban parts of The Hills. Then I’d have Macquarie be a Blue Mountains + Penrith seat – an alignment that hasn’t been used since 1982 – and then have Lindsay drop south to effectively become the new seat, looking a lot like the combined NSW State seats of Badgerys Creek and Camden.
What gets abolished in southern and central Sydney probably has to be a flow-on consequence of whether the Commission wants to keep a Southern Illawarra-Southern Highlands seat or adopt a northern Illawarra-Sutherland Shire seat instead.
um the map below?
this supports my observation that one seat should be created in northwestern and southwestern sydney as well as abolishing one in northern sydney and central sydney. im also suggesting hume shed its metropolitain areas in camden and take in wingebaribee from whitlam. this also confirms the long term problems of macquarie and that blue mountains and hawesbury need to be broken up. i still think the best seat to abolish in central sydney is barton however the name can survive by taking over most of the former territory of grayndler much in the same way they preserved hunter taking over charlton.the one in northern sydney will most likely be bradfield however i personally believe it should be north sydney. and as creating one seat seat in both nw and sw sydney plus the splitting on macquarie will effectively ,ean creating 3 seats. 4 will ned to be abolished. 2 seats that shouldnt need any changes are newcastle and farrer. then there the issues of the teals depending on how the seats are drawn and the communities they are based we could see tink and stegall face off although the more likely scenario is tinks seat takes in liberal bradfield and she has to face off against fletcher.
Blacktown City is an enormous council and there’s more diversity within it than between the suburbs on the fringe and their neighbours across the border. The north-east of Blacktown has a lot in common with the Hills.
my mitchell is formed simply by shrinking south and maintaining the windsor road border in the west
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1qngxl0O-0WCfmu_wN2wGjW7GafIDO1An
With so many seats under quota, I expect some shitshow coming from this redistribution. Already am struggling at around NSyd and Grayndler!
Sorry the map wasn’t working but it is working now.
@Leon, a whole seat has disappeared, so it makes sense that most seats are under quota.
@Ben Raue
And I forgot to say, so many over quota as well (Paterson, Werriwa, Macarthur, Chifley, Greenway etc.)
Some of the projections are quite surprising – lack of growth on the North Coast, Wentworth going backwards, Robertson growing when it is under quota now, Gilmore and Whitlam not growing much.
I have started on my submission and I am surprised how clean some of the boundaries are becoming.
@Josh Lucock.
I like your image of a new Bradfield, presumably with North Sydney pushing well north into existing Bradfield.
A Tink vs Fletcher contest (if Fletcher didn’t retire – just as likely would be Matt Kean or Jessica Collins) would be a close run IND vs Labor for 2nd as well. Tink would have to introduce herself to new voters and may lose some strong areas of the current electorate she represents.
I think I’m going to limit my suggestion to just Northern Sydney. I feel I just don’t have the familiarity with other parts of the state to make a solid contribution in what is going to be a very challenging redistribution.
Here’s what I’ve come up with:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LgGlTo6BzAvsw3eXVRmL6vuT-O_O5tIB/view?usp=sharing
I could quibble about a few minor things Nicholas, but I think you are on a good track
i just did my mackellar and my initial map is only 93 electors off the -3.5% of projeted quota and well with the current enrollment
can someone tell me where i can find the areas the SA1s pertain to?
@High Street
Feel free to share your minor quibbles, I’d be curious to know what they are! I have plenty of small quibbles about it too that would be resolvable if the 3.5% allowance was increased to, say, 5%…
@John
There are a few general approaches that I can see one taking to Northern Sydney, and the one you’ve taken I investigated a fair bit myself. The starting point was for Mackellar to be confined to the Northern Beaches, and Warringah pushing as far as necessary into North Sydney LGA. The rest of the boundaries I ended up with in this attempt were remarkably similar to yours. My fear is that the splitting of North Sydney, Willoughby, and Ryde LGAs might not be taken so well, particularly by residents.
Ben, does the August 2023 enrolment data refers to monthly enrolment statistics as of 31 July 2023 or 31 August 2023? Note that the redistribution commenced on 9 August 2023, so the enrolment data used for redistribution should be the data as of 31 July 2023. I would like you to confirm which set of enrolment data you are using here.
@nicholas the north sydney and willoughby LGAs are already split. im working on my warringah as i type. it maight be able to take in the whole LGA
Nicholas and High Street, I wonder if the minor ‘quibble’ is having Cherrybrook/WPH in the Hornsby centric district rather than transferred to the Castle Hill based one.
I think Cherrybrook/WPH are borderline suburbs that could fit in either district, although with the new metro line these communities may gravitate more towards Castle Hill instead of Hornsby.
But overall, a good proposal – in effect abolishing Bradfield and have it distributed between Mackellar, North Sydney and Berowra.
@Yoh An
You’ve precisely identified the biggest quibble I have with my own proposal! And I feel it, as I’m a former resident of Cherrybrook.
Among the alternative I investigated, I had a Berowra extending from Hornsby to Baulkham Hills. This led to Mitchell jumping the A2 and then it was unclear how to divvy up the rest of Blacktown LGA. I also had one that largely retained the existing boundary between Bradfield and Berowra in the east, but Berowra had to expand west to take in most of Castle Hill but not Baulkham Hills. This became a mess and I wasn’t sure how to proceed.
So, I haven’t been able to find a way that keeps Cherrybrook with the rest of The Hills District in a way that doesn’t cause a mess elsewhere.
Joseph, if you click on the AEC link in my above table it takes you to a page with the enrolment projections by SA1. It specifies in those documents that the current enrolment is as of 9th August 2023.
update Mackellar complete
Mackellar – Current enrollment 111700 – Projected enrollment 117968.
After redistribution – Enrollment 120096 – Projected enrollment 126694
Mackellar gains the 1614 voters and 1669 projected voters from SA2 122031696, gains the 5323 voters and 5355 projected voters from SA2 122031437 and gains 1459 voters and 1702 projected voters from SA2 122031695 from Warringah. This increases Mackellar to 120096 electors and 126694 projected electors. Given its only 93 electors short it can be solved by expanding the Mackellar along Beacon Hill road and Pittwater road. This reduces Warringah to 97363 voters and projected voters 97232.
sry i forgot to dlete a sentence 🙁
Mackellar gains the 1614 voters and 1669 projected voters from SA2 122031696, gains the 5323 voters and 5355 projected voters from SA2 122031437 and gains 1459 voters and 1702 projected voters from SA2 122031695 from Warringah. This increases Mackellar to 120096 electors and 126694 projected electors. This reduces Warringah to 97363 voters and projected voters 97232.
ive just finished Warringah and have managed to move the rest of the North Sydney LGA into it. it however slightly over quota but il just transfer abit more to Mackellar tomorrow and that should fix it up.
Warringah – Current Enrollment 105759 – Projected enrollment 105958
After redistribution – Enrollment 134343 – Projected enrollment 134193
Warringah gains the 6539 voters and 6532 projected voters from SA2 121041416, gains the 9194 voters and 9664 projected voters from SA2 122041413, gains the 8457 voters and 8664 projected voters from SA2 122041417 and gains 12790 voters and 12101 projected voters from SA2 121041414 from North Sydney. This increases Warringah to 134343 electors and 134193 projected electors. This reduces North Sydney to 75650 electors and 75605 electors.
Nicholas, with regards to Cherrybrook it actually straddles the border between Hornsby and Hills Shire councils so is a suburb that can go ‘either way’. For state districts, Cherrybrook is placed into the seat containing Hornsby whilst its neighbour WPH is in Castle Hill.
ive managed to find a bit extra time and ive now finaliesd my Mackellar and Warringah as follows
Mackellar – Current enrollment 111700 – Projected enrollment 117968.
After redistribution – Enrollment 122990 – Projected enrollment 129988
Mackellar gains the 1614 electors and 1669 projected electors from SA2 122031696, gains the 5323 electors and 5355 projected electors from SA2 122031437, gains 2894 electors and 3294 projected electors from SA2 122031424 and gains 1459 electors and 1702 projected electors from SA2 122031695 from Warringah. This increases Mackellar to 122990 electors and 129988 projected electors. This reduces Warringah to 94469 electors and 93938 projected electors.
Warringah – Current Enrollment 105759 – Projected enrollment 105958
After redistribution – Enrollment 131449 – Projected enrollment 130899
Warringah gains the 6539 voters and 6532 projected voters from SA2 121041416, gains the 9194 voters and 9664 projected voters from SA2 122041413, gains the 8457 voters and 8664 projected voters from SA2 122041417 and gains 12790 voters and 12101 projected voters from SA2 121041414 from North Sydney. This increases Warringah to 134343 electors and 134193 projected electors. This reduces North Sydney to 75650 electors and 75605 electors.
il update my maps on monday
@Nicholas
I hate your Mackellar but everything else looks like it makes sense. I would personally prefer to keep West Pennant Hills and Cherrybrook in the same electorate (even though they are in different LGAs) but I acknowledge this is difficult to do. I want a few changes here and there but it is nothing I cannot live by.
While I was previously advocating for St Ives in Mackellar and Roseville Chase to Middle Cove in Warringah (and Cremorne in Warringah but that was far less controversial), but after learning this would force North Sydeny into virtually all of Gordon at the minimum, I decided there was no way a seat called North Sydney (and based in North Sydney) should ever stretch this far in current times (Yes, I know 1901 boundaries went well into the central coast).
Hence, I suggest that North Sydney is abolished. Grayndler also looks like it is gone. What I did with Grayndler was to split it more or less (few exceptions, like small part of Newtown West in Sydney, and Summer Hill in Barton) around (pre-2016) LGA boundaries – Ashfield into Reid (to unite the Asian community), Marrickville into Barton (to unite Marrickville into nearly 1 piece) and Leichhardt into Sydney (based on Leichhardt’s new connections to Sydney from L1 and the fact that Balmain used to be in Sydney until 2016). I assume Warringah will then primarily take North Sydney areas and Bradfield takes Willoughby areas, but I am not sure about the Lane Cove areas (maybe Bradfield, maybe Bennelong). I note that Lane Cove was in Bennelong until 1992, but I am uncertain about how how far east the western border of Bennelong would move in such case. I certainly do not want Epping to be in Parramatta (even though it is in Parramatta LGA), and Epping in Berowra seems slightly weird as an idea.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1zjp8bTN7_lxMspLIqQIucxa7OtVwvzU&usp=sharing
I am joining the Abolish North Sydney Coalition. I’ve essentially carved it three ways.
I guess my planned spiel about how division names shouldn’t be permitted to influence boundaries will need to be prominent in my submission considering it is one of the sacred cow Federation Divisions.
we keep coming back to what to do with Mackellar and Warringah.
Whilst I acknowledge the suburb of North Sydney may go into Warringah, I don’t think this is actually much of the curent North Syney seat. A seat that takes in Lane Cove and Willoughby LGA, plus the southern section of Kuringai, but called Bradfield, would be basically an amalgamation of the pre 2016 North Sydney and Bradfield seats – about 50/50 I would guess. Maybe 60/40 based on John’s numbers above. I would be interested to see a map of that which I suppose we will see on Monday if John has time over the weekend to add North Sydney to his .Mackellar and Warringah calculations.
@high street il be Able to upload my mackellar- and warringah maps tonight as I’m now free probly around 11pm my previous maps were more or less accurate on mackellar- and warringah has just taken in the entirety of ns lga. I won’t be doing north Sydney for a bit now that I’ve got mackellar- and warringah done I’m gonna go do the other corner seats. Namely Wentworth and Richmond. I agree with Leon that north Sydney is going to get abolished in name anyway. I think we will see a Kylea Tink v Paul Fletcher match up given that she lives in North ridge which is outside the area I’ve allocated to warringah. Though she will need to relocate her office before the next election as it’s in North Sydney which is now zali stegalls territory. My plans as indicated in my draft maps is to have the eastern part of willoughby in Bradfield and the western part in bennelong
@John
One thing I remember from living in Northbridge for a few years is that there are WAY more bus services to North Sydney than to Chatswood (11 and 2 per hour respectively at weekday peak times) even though it is in the same council as the latter. While I assume this is numerically difficult, parts of me would prefer to move Northbridge into Warringah if North Sydney is moved there. Possibly same story with Castlecrag to be honest.
I’ve just realised something. I could keep everything in my map the same but rotate Mackellar, Warringah, and North Sydney like so:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/15lSDcxQvdsA4605rUY7LnDBd5i2tpWSn/view?usp=sharing
– Mackellar becomes Northern Beaches LGA minus the state electoral district of Manly.
– Warringah becomes the state electoral district of Manly, plus Mosman LGA, plus North Sydney LGA minus St Leonards.
– North Sydney becomes St Leonards plus Lane Cove LGA, plus Hunters Hill LGA, plus Willoughby LGA, plus the eastern half of Ku-ring-gai LGA.
The rest is North Sydney looks a bit silly, but maybe it’s okay.
I then decided to reexplore what would happen if we allowed North Sydney to extend into Ryde LGA, and ended up with some boundaries quite similar to John’s.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/196HFN__6HonzqTAJr0OkcTwQfAIh8X_-/view?usp=sharing
– Bradfield is able to extend to the Hawkesbury River in the north, and Pennant Hills in the west.
– Bennelong is able to extend to Darling Mills Creek and James Ruse Drive. However, it cannot fit both Beecroft/Cheltenham and Rydalmere.
– Berowra shifts west to take in Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, and half of Kellyville.
So far so good. But now we have the issue of dealing with a division straddling the A2. Not a bad thing in itself, but the consequences further west and south are a bit messy. I did my best. I found that minimal changes to Macquarie and Lindsay (the only change in both being the transfer of the Emu Plains area) helped to stabilise things. I’m not thrilled with my Chifley. Maybe I another time or someone else could find a more elegant boundary here. And now have no idea what to do with Blacktown and Parramatta.
Also, which electorate has been abolished here?!
Hmm, and as I’ve been writing this I now realise that if Bennelong contains Beecroft/Cheltenham and I eke out the numbers, I may be able to get the division straddling the A2 to get all the way to the rail line, which may make things work… It’s all such a deep rabbit hole.
Loving the discussions so far folks. Been playing around with the numbers today and it seems like we’re going to be able to fix a lot of current badly drawn seats.
@Nicholas I’ve landed on the exact same configuration as you for Mackellar/Warringah/North Sydney. Feels like the most elegant way to redraw the Northern Suburbs, but it goes against the idea that Mackellar should be the starting point so maybe people won’t warm to the idea.
Noting the totals for each of the Northern Suburbs LGAs…
Hunters Hill – 0.08 quotas
Lane Cove – 0.21 quotas
Willoughby – 0.35 quotas
North Sydney – 0.37 quotas
Mosman – 0.16 quotas
Northern Beaches – 1.49 quotas
Ku-ring-gai – 0.65 quotas
Hornsby – 0.78 quotas
TOTAL – 4.10 quotas
Hunters Hill + Lane Cove + Willoughby + North Sydney = 1.01 quotas, which seems neat.
Northern Beaches + Mosman + North Sydney = 2.02 quotas, but pairing North Sydney with Manly feels a bit wrong. I don’t think it’s possible to split Northern Beaches and Mosman yet.
Otherwise, give up Hunters Hill to Bennelong, and that’s an easy 4 seats.
@leon numerically impossible atm I move the entire lga of north Sydney and it’s pretty much at the higher end of the deviation but that will be good because it’s growth is a lot slower so it won’t drop in 7 years. It also might be a disadvantage because with North Sydney removed it will lose it north Sydney name and she will be unknown to residents of Bradfield so it might be a bad time for Fletcher to retire. Warringah will also need a name change due to that lga no longer existing. My suggestion will be Sydney harbour or the a original word for it
All,
I think we agreed some time ago that Warringah is named after the aboriginal word for Middle Harbour, not the LGA, so it is actually quite a good name for the current seat.
Tink has moved to Lane Cove.
@John – the biggest problem with your maps is splitting Willoughyby LGA in two down Willoughby road – that really jars.
I think ‘A’ is onto something when stating that if bennelong takes Hunters Hill LGA, there are 4 quotas left all the way up to Hornsby LGA, Its then just a matter of how you carve up those LGA’s into 4 seats. That simplicity will surely be attractive to the Commissioners.
And on that point – if Batlow and Tumbarumba can be in Eden-Monaro, then parts of current Bradfield can be in Mackellar. It ain’t a stretch
@John
All of Northern Beaches, Mosman and North Sydney LGA (minus St Leonards) is basically exactly 2 quotas. Move the boundaries to Oxley St and problem solved!
@Nicholas
I would move Hunters Hill i to Bennelong too at that point, and bring North Sydney/Bradfield up to include everything up to Pymble in full. Berowra starts at Turramurra.
Also, yeah I’d dump the name North Sydney. No longer includes North Sydney and whilst a Federation name, Melbourne Ports was also dumped
@high street I read somewhere it’s namesake was the lga still that creates confusion and given it’s going to experience 20-25% change a renaming is warranted.
Really when did she move? If that’s true she’s most likely anticipating the redistribution and wanting to stay within the new boundaries or maybe just a coincidence either way she won’t be reconnecting Bradfield against Paul Fletcher and maybe wanted to contest Bennelong? Given that’s labor territory ATM it would be easier for her to score votes off him then Fletcher. Either way the liberals will be relieved.
My Bradfield is currently just a draft I’d imagine it will need to take in much more of willoughby most likely along the Pacific hwy or the entirety of willoughby if numbers allow it based on the numbers from A willoughby and kurungai make up 1 quota so i should be able to put the whole lga in
Find attached my updated warringah and mackellar- maps
@leon I’ve done exactly that. In regards to your comments on Grayndler- I’ve abolished Barton instead but in reality it will move north to take over much of the former territory of Grayndler- to preserve the name much like hunter over Charlton in 2016. And would be made of marrickville leichardt and ashfield. The other problem with abolishing Grayndler- is it’s the pms seat and while I personally wouldn’t mind that and the aec is impartial it would be a brave commissioner to recommend that and you just know there will be a huge backlash of complaints saying it’s politically motivated. I think Linda Burney will be te one left without a seat due to her age and the most likely failed voice referendum as albanese would be able to get the numbers anywhere given he’s the leader even if he has to move seats
@dean yes the name is on its way out just like west south and east Sydney are now gone.
@a the commission will probly follow previous pattern and move mackellar- south not west. If you look at your numbers in addition to the 2.02 from those 3 lgas. Willoughby and kurangai make up 1.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10W07BZvCvasv_9zWvX6JpjBi-9mfRpQB/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10ZGpCldQj1pV2-wB0g1uOKxYduNJQ4yx/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10YznactiiynbkDoISgKO05UXz-Ik7s-5/view?usp=drivesdk
I’ve posted them but it says awaiting moderation soo…
@John
If Banks loses the revesby area, and stretches from Peakhurst to Kogarah, I can imagine Burney would move there. I can also imagine Tony Burke retiring by then.
@leon thats what im planning on doing. however that would force a showdown with david coleman
im just finishing up my wentworth but it looks as though my draft map was pretty much spot on again 😀
Wentowrth – Current Enrollment 104081 – Projected enrollment 102383
After redistribution – Enrollment 130487 – Projected enrollment 128374
I think I have good grounds for chopping Macquarie up into 2.
Mitchell, Lindsay, Chifley and Greenway are all over 10% quota and Berowra shifts a bit west based on what i have seen so far (shedding about 8% of a seat worth of voters). Add Hawkesbury LGA to this and we can draw 5 seats ish.
Furthermore, “fixing” Eden-Monaro (Yass and Snowy valleys should never have been placed in there – I mean there is no way by public transport to get from Queanbeyan to these areas without going into ACT or Goulburn in Hume!) and Hume (Camden, Mount Annan being in the same electorate as Goulburn and Boorowa!? Really!?) would require this after knock-on effects.
30 seats can be drawn from all of Sydney, Hawkesbury LGA, Wollondilly LGA, Wollongong to Bega Valley LGA, Snowy Monaro LGA and Queanbeya-Palerang LGA.
16 seats can be drawn from the rest of the state including Blue Mountains LGA and Wingecarribee LGA
@leon I think the general consensus is to break up macquarie however il be combining hawkesbury with parts of hunter to the north. As I believe 4 seats can be made from the hills and black town. In regards to Eden monaro il be moving yass to riverina but can’t see anywhere to put snowy valleys that would work numerically. In regards to hume boorora will join the rest of the new lga in riverina as well. And hume would shed Camden to the new SW seat.
I should warn you that there isnt a single bus route that runs from Hawkesbury to Singleton. I am considering public transport VERY heavily in my proposal.
Also, everything from robertson to richmond, then hunter and new england is only just higher than 11 seats. Remove all of Gwydir LGA and thats 11.06 quota or something – hardly an issue I believe. Basically means Singleton + Hawkesbury is unnecessary
I also add that the macquarie split could help avoid a division that crosses old windsor rd, which I believe is definitely good news.
@leon public transport isn’t the only consideration by the commission and mine doesn’t cross it either
What are everyone’s thoughts on McMahon?
It hasn’t been mentioned yet but seems to me that it’s a pretty badly drawn seat. Is there a reason it’s stuck around for so long in its current arrangement with disconnected parts of Penrith/Blacktown in the West of the seat? Is it a given that these should be transferred to Lindsay/Chifley?
Going further, the Cumberland and Fairfield parts feel a little bit disconnected too. The Prospect Creek border between the 2 LGAs and the surrounding industrial areas seem like more of a place to put a division boundary rather than the centre of a division. Could McMahon be a good seat to split into 2, effectively giving half a new seat to the Northwest and half a new seat to the Southwest?
Anyone familiar with the area know what the cultural differences are between the Cumberland and Fairfield parts of the seat? Both solid Labor areas, but seems like the Fairfield part was 10-20% stronger in 2022.
@angus I’ve commented in the thread after times. It will depend where it expands as to what happens most if it goes west it heads into liberal voting Penrith whereas if it expands east it’s becomes safer as it will take I. Labor voting Fairfield. The other wild card is Fairfield mayor frank Carbone. Him and Dai Le have formed a party.and have vowed to contest seats in western sydney.and he may be running as well. In regards to the current configuration it’s only been around since 2019 and only been redistributes once in 2016. As to the northern boundary I’m proposing exactly that. With the Fairfield lga and the prospect reservoir being the boundary and the parts of black town go into the new chifley and greenway as together blavktown and the hills can make up 4 divisions. As to it’s splitting it’s unlikely the name will disappear due to being named after a pm. Labor was always gonna get a swing coming from opposition against a govt that alienated ethnic groups.
Comments are closed.