Australia’s next federal election is due to be held by May 2025. There are redistributions underway for three states, but the other 50 electorates will not be redrawn.
This has given me the chance to start work on my federal election guide, the first part of which I’m launching today.
This guide features profiles of the 50 House electorates in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, the ACT and the Northern Territory, as well as profiles of the eight Senate contests.
As has become standard practice, I have paywalled most of the profiles, but I have unlocked two House profiles and one Senate profile:
You can click through to each seat on the following map. Electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia are faded since they are subject to redistributions, and you can’t click through to profiles for those seats.
When does the entire thing become unlocked?
i know there’s still over a year to go but here are my predictions on seats that will flip. liberals gain lyons, tangney, hasluck, and maybe hunter. labor gains sturt, menzies, deakin, possibly banks. they’ve also got a chance in bonner if there is a general swing to labor in queensland, though i think dutton may help sandbag brisbane based seats. greens gain macnamara and richmond. an independant could take bradfield however being in opposition i don’t think the liberals will perform as abysmally in seats like this. labor is also at risk in seats in sydney’s west if they parachute candidates however i think they’ve at least partly learnt their lesson after dai le. werriwa may also be at risk of falling to the liberals as i feel anne stanley is an underperforming and unestablished local mp.
I’ll probably unlock it in early 2025, unless the election is called earlier, in which case I’ll unlock it as soon as the election is called.
With NSW due to lose a seat as well as Victoria the redistributions could make a bunch of seats notionally Labor or Liberal. I seems that Hotham will get the chop so that will boost Labor’s margin in Chisholm as that seat needs to expand its also possible that Menzies and Deakin become notional Labor where Aston margin could be reversed as I will most likely expand further south-east and take in the rest of Lysterfield and Lysterfield south and could possible cross the creek and include Vermont and Vermont south like it did in 2010. As for Banks I feel if David retires then Labor has a chance of winning but if he stays then the seat could revert back to its 2019 tpp but at this stage its way to early to tell. Another seat that could be lost notionally is Bennelong due to its small margin however this depends on which direction the seat is pushed however given the history Bennelong I would say it will go further west which would benefit the ALP.
@Bob Even if Aston is ‘notionally’ Liberal it will only be because the new areas didn’t vote again in the byelection. Vermont and/or Vermont South would have swung to Labor had they been in Aston at the byelection, as would have Heathmont/Bayswater North if it extends north. Almost no one lives in the remainder of Lysterfield/Lysterfield South so it would not affect the margin. Aston could never expand south from a community of interest point of view, and east into the Dandenongs would massively help Labor. Plus Labor will get a sophomore surge. I expect a Labor retain.
Any chance you can drip feed one or two a month to wet our appetite? Obviously I understand the paywall for the lot.
I’ve determined that after redistribution the coalition should be able to pick up 16 seats from labor bringing them to 72 and taking labor to 62. They should be able to recover those 2 from the greens in QLD. That gets them to 74. I reckon they can get curtain, Goldstein and Kooyong from the teals which makes 77 and should recover calare. Wentworth and warringah will probably be in the too hard basket but NS and Kylea Tink is a ? As there’s gonna be a remodel there so it won’t exist any close to it’s current form so she may not even have a seat. Mackellar- and Indi are ?s. There are 10 seats I believe could go either way ( including 2 where labor has a chance to take them from them liberals) or be taken by a minor party or independent. So in my opinion it will be as follows. liberals 76-84 seats, labor 56-65 seats. Greens 2-6 seats. Independents 3-10 seats, Katter, Sharkie. If the liberals can’t make the gains I’m predicting it will probly end up being a hung parliament. I just can’t see labor gaining enough to offset their losses and they only hold govt by 2 seats.
this estimate didnt inclusde any seats being abolished/created in nsw, vic and wa as it will ultimately depend where it happens and i havent included any losses/gains of abolished seats or created seats
Hey John – the current Poll Bludger Bludger Track has Labor on a 2PP of 54.2% – up 2.1% since the election.
Where are these 16 seats that LNP are going to win off Labor???!
And your numbers above indicate another 6 seats potentially lost – to the Greens, I suppose? At least thatas some basis in current polling
John, I’m sorry but there is just no way that the Coalition would improve their tally and beat Labor off of current polling. Perhaps you are more right of centre than most people, but there is no way that the polls from whoever can be interpreted as favouring the LNP.
Based on polls and state election results in NSW and Vic, Labor could expect to pick up Lindsay, Banks, Fowler, and have outside chances in Hume, Hughes and Page, although the last one is probably inflated because of the local MP.
In Victoria there would almost be a clean sweep of Melbourne with Labor expecting to pick up Deakin, Menzies, Casey and Monash and a potential chance in La Trobe and Flinders. And across the country, Moore and Canning may fall, Sturt (which would leave no Libs in Adelaide), Bass, maybe Braddon, as well as, in Queensland, Bowman, Bonner, Brisbane, Forde, Dickson, Petrie and Longman in Brisbane and Flynn, Leichhardt and Capricornia in regional QLD if the party chooses to heavily campaign there. Plus minor parties and independent candidates, should they choose to run again, could probably win in a rematch in Nicholls, Wannon, Cowper, Bradfield and Groom. Plus if Labor chooses, they have the option if campaigning in the three regional WA seats, although I doubt they would.
There is just no way for Labor to have a net loss at the next election based off of reliable polling. And if your redistributions would make 16 seats notionally Liberal, then that’s practically gerrymandering.
I might unlock some more at some point but not every month. If people think they’re useful and want to read more of them, please sign up as a donor. You don’t have to maintain it every month for the next two years.
Bajoc and High Street, whilst Labor is currently well ahead in polls, the situation could easily reverse by the time the next election is due in 2025. It may be just an indication that Albanese and Labor are experiencing an extended honeymoon period just like Kevin Rudd during the peak of the late 00’s recession.
For Rudd and Labor post 2007, their support began to fall once Tony Abbott took over as Liberal leader in 2009, so a similar situation could easily occur this time. However, with the Coalition already having a hard right leader in Dutton this may not eventuate.
@high street only one poll that matters. Those polls are wildly inaccurate in my opinion. The only one that is close is newspoll and that’s on hiatus due to problems at yougov. And there’s still 21 months until the election. In my opinion the seats that can be taken are Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Holt, Bennelong, Robertson, Paterson, Macquarie, Werriwa-, higgins, hasluck, pearce, swan, Tangey, Eden-Monaro, and Blair
I said they will have between 2-6 total.
@bajoc so your saying the lnp is gonna finish with 25 seats at the next election? Whose the one exaggerating now? Id say your more left of centre then most. I never said it would make 16 notionally liberal I merely said after the redistribution there were 16 they could realistically get. Tbh I don’t even know the new margins of mine. Some will be safer for labor some liberal some more marginal for both. I did mine based on reason and realistic choices faced by the aec. Who I imagine will make similar decisions and probly different to mine and everyone else’s.
@ben when I can afford it
@yoh an thank you. The only difference now is rudd was from the right as well. Here we have a socialist pm and a conservative opposition leader. I imagine whoever wins the voice referendum will win the election.
@John, perhaps I misinterpreted that about your redistribution. I though you meant 16 seats would become notionally Liberal, not that there would be that number of possible/plausible pick ups.
Labor will also, obviously not win all those seats. I am not saying they will. In fact they won’t. I think the next election will see seats flipping from ALP to LNP and from LNP to ALP. But based on the two aforementioned factors in my previous comment, Labor will almost certainly benefit if an election was held tomorrow. Obviously things can change between now and 2025, but I am talking about now, and that list was just a suggestion of potential targets for the party.
I’d also disagree that Albo is a socialist. Many of his policies are more on the conservative side for someone who supposedly came from Labor Left (LL does not equal socialist, by the way).
@Bajoc glad i could clarify that. tbh i have no idea how to determine new numbers i dont have the time to do that. which is why i asked if anyone could. its been reported by both parties that they expect the liberals to benefit from the upcoming redistribution given that laobr will almost certainly lose a seat in vic and nsw and the wa seat is a ?. labor is also expecting loses in wa namely the seats they got at the last election due to a combination of scomo alientaing wa and mark mcgowans personal popularity. that puts them at -6 disadvantage. and given the coalition suffered what i believe was the worst they could in 2022 with a couple exceptions i dont believe can get enough to form amjority again. i believe the libs stil have some they can lose but i dont think labor will offset the losses they will sustain. that is my best case scenario and yes im a supporter but i actually believe it can be done but think some of the teals will still win. tbh i think another hung parliament is the most likely option. The coalition will more then likely increase there seats but whether its enough to get into majority remains to be seen. I believe whoever wins the referendum will experience a surge.
i should also note that in addition to those 16 there are others that could be taken given the right circumstances and redistribution on both sides
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