At the start of this year I put together two blog posts looking at likely trends in how the redistributions might be drawn in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, looking at how much each seat is above or below the estimated enrolment quota.
For today’s post I am updating the maps from those posts with the latest data, as of May 2023.
New South Wales and Victoria are each losing a seat, while Western Australia is gaining a seat. This means, in the case of New South Wales, that seats will need to be drawn so that they are relatively close to a quota which will be the equivalent of 1/46th of the state enrolment at the time that the statistics are calculated. There are currently 47 seats, so most existing seats fall short of the necessary population. As each seat is redrawn to bring it up to quota, eventually a seat will be changed so much as to not resemble its predecessor, and thus will effectively be abolished. The same is true in Victoria, and true in reverse in Western Australia.
These electorates must be drawn to be within 10% of the quota as of the time of the redistribution, and within 3.5% of a quota based on estimates of enrolment 3.5 years from now. For now, I don’t have any projected figures, so I’m just looking at current figures. It would make sense for some seats to be drawn under quota if they are projected to grow faster than other areas, and vice versa.
For this post I am using the May 2023 enrolment statistics, but I’m also comparing them to the December and September 2022 numbers to get a sense of trends – some seats are getting closer to the quota, and others are moving further away.
Let’s start with NSW. Not much has changed on the map.
As of December 2022, the 27 seats in the Greater Sydney region were 1.29 seats under-quota. But Sydney is now growing faster than regional NSW, so that shortfall is now just 1.25 seats. I expect projected figures will be less than that.
Zooming in, it becomes clear that the growing areas are all in Western Sydney. The 11 seats of Western Sydney were 14% of a seat under-quota as of September, and are now just 1.7% under quota. Unfortunately this doesn’t mean these seats will be left alone, as shortfalls in other parts of Sydney will force dramatic changes in this area to meet up with regional NSW.
Meanwhile the remaining 16 seats in central, northern and southern Sydney were 1.17 seats under quota as of September and 1.24 as of May. I would expect a seat in this area to be abolished, most likely in northern Sydney. The six seats of northern Sydney only contain about 5.48 seats worth of enrolment.
Next up, Victoria.
Victoria has a similar story, in that most of the shortfall is in Melbourne, but Melbourne is growing faster. Melbourne was 89% of a seat short of its 26th seat in September, but that number is now 85%.
Central and eastern Melbourne are both falling further under quota, while the six seats of western Melbourne are creeping up closer to the quota. South-eastern Melbourne is steady, about 14% of a seat under quota. The fifteen seats in central and eastern Melbourne were 47.5% under quota in September, but that number is now up to 56%. Meanwhile western Melbourne has gone from 27% under to just 14.6% under.
If you look at individual seats, this becomes clearer. Five western Melbourne seats – Lalor, Calwell, Gorton, Gellibrand and Hawke – are amongst the eight seats growing fastest relative to the rest of the state.
Finally, Western Australia:
Unsurprisingly, the same patterns are obvious in Perth – the seats on the outskirts of the city are growing fastest relative to the rest. Hasluck, Brand, Canning, Pearce and Burt were 25% over quota as of September, and now they are almost 30% over. Meanwhile actual raw enrolment numbers have been falling slightly in Durack.
Every seat in WA is over quota, but some more than others. The three regional seats were collectively 16.4% over quota as of September, but now that number is 14.8%.
Looking at regional and rural WA, it possible to make another seat given that Durack and O’Connor have similar enrolment figures (both have enrolment figures of over 119,000 and under 120,000, so severely over quota).
@Nether Portal. Not nearly enough for another rural seat with Durack and O’Connor each only 6% over quota. Likely less than that on projections and at least partly resolved by Bullsbrook going back into a city division and Boddington (which is part of the Peel region) going into Canning.
On current boundaries, Durack extends into the Perth metropolitan region and O’Connor takes in a substantial amount of the south west region. Only a small fraction of their current territory will need to be removed to get both down to quota.
Back to regional NSW, Cowper and Paterson will need major changes.
I propose that Port Macquarie and Telegraph Point move from Cowper back into Lyne, Coffs Harbour and Kempsey remain in Cowper, Paterson loses Maitland and Kurri Kurri to Hunter and Paterson moves up to take Buladelah from Lyne.
Regardless of the state result of Port Stephens in 2023 which saw it go from being a marginal Labor seat to a safe Labor seat, I still believe both the federal seat of Paterson and the state seat of Port Stephens are winnable for the Liberals, given that they’re normally marginal seats and in 2023 Labor gained a few seats from the Liberals and the bellwether seat of Monaro from the Nationals but did not win a majority despite 54% TPP because they wasted that swing on seats they already held with swings of over 10% in some (though Liverpool for example had a big swing against Labor but remained a safe seat). Anyway, Paterson is still a marginal Labor seat (the Liberals even had a swing to them in 2022) with the Labor-voting areas of Maitland and northern Newcastle (Hexham).
What I’m getting at here is that the Liberals would notionally hold Paterson should it lose Maitland and Kurri Kurri. Give me a bit and I’ll estimate the margin.
By the way, on a side note I found an extremely detailed map of the election showing first preference results in every polling booth. The largest first preference I’ve found so far is 88% Liberal at Cherrybrook Christian Care Centre in the seat of Berowra.
After a quick look, I think my redistribution of Paterson would have a notional margin of at least 1.5%, likely even over 2%, for the Liberals (which means it would become notionally Liberal), while Hunter would become a fair bit safer for Labor (maybe 8-10% ALP margin).
More to come.
This would mean the Liberals would notionally have one seat that is partially in Newcastle, even though it only contains a fraction of Newcastle (i.e Hexham and Heatherbrae).
Cowper is difficult to make a notional TCP for given the independent candidate performed well in parts of Coffs and Bellingen, which in my proposal would remain in Cowper whereas Port (which has a very high Nationals vote, so does Coffs but the independent performed well in Coffs Harbour as opposed to Port Macquarie) would move to the safe Nationals seat Lyne, which includes most of the Port Macquarie-Hastings LGA (Wauchope and the Camden Haven region) as well as Taree and Forster-Tuncurry. On TPP, Cowper is still Nationals heartland but on TCP the margin is less. The teal independent is from Coffs so she would contest the new Cowper in 2025 as opposed to Lyne where she would be even less popular due to the even higher conservative votes in coastal and rural towns. Therefore Cowper without Port Macquarie would be notionally independent, whereas Lyne would become safer for the Nationals with the moving of the town of Buladelah to Paterson and the addition of Port and the nearby town of Telegraph Point (which is best known as the home of Stoney Aqua Park, an inflatable waterpark in a manmade lake). So I’ll leave the margins for Cowper and Lyne for now, but I’ve already said numerous times my proposal for the well-over-quota seat of Cowper and the nearby seat of Lyne.
Gilmore is the one I’ll look at next. It would more likely than not become notionally Liberal, due to Andrew Constance losing to incumbent Labor MP Fiona Phillips by a bee’s dick of a margin (approximately 300 votes).
Eden-Monaro is under quota so it will gain voters from Gilmore.
If Moruya and everywhere south of Moruya is moved into Eden-Monaro, then we have Eden-Monaro as still a Labor seat with a relatively unchanged margin while Gilmore would probably be have a notional margin of 1-3% for the Liberals, especially assuming Andrew Constance recontests which even helped him in fire-ravaged towns like Nelligan (where the fireman told the PM, Scomo, to “get fucked” when speaking to the news reporter, yet Constance and the NSW Liberals were supporting fire victims and the Liberals won the TPP in Nelligan).
Cunningham in the northern outskirts of Wollongong and areas between Sydney and Wollongong (e.g the small town of Helensburgh) is under quota and may need to move further south to cover more of Wollongong and Hughes (heavily under quota) would take in much of the leftover Cunningham (e.g Helensburgh). I’ll leave Sydney for now though. Back to Wollongong, Whitlam (which covers most of Wollongong and is over quota) would likely have to move south to include only souther Wollongong and take in Kiama from Gilmore. This would definitely make Gilmore notionally Liberal, with a notional margin of about 4-5%, while Cunningham and Whitlam would be still safe Labor seats and although I said I’d leave out Sydney, Hughes would be less safe for the Liberals but likely still a Liberal seat. Interestingly Hughes actually used to be a Labor seat but became more conservative (I think this happened after John Howard won a landslide at the 1996 federal election). Then it became the seat that elected Craig Kelly for 12 years.
Eden-Monaro is under quota and may need to take in the towns of Taragon and Tirannavale from Hume (over quota) to be either just under quota or exactly the quota. It would remain a Labor seat. It could also gain the suburb of Goulburn South from Hume, but that would be a bit confusing having Goulburn split between two electorates (or “divided between two divisions”, that would cause some real “divisions” within Goulburn, the home of Big Merino, who would be in Eden-Monaro instead of Hume if Goulburn South is moved). Therefore I think all of Goulburn should stay in Hume.
Macquarie will have to take in parts of Hunter and maybe a little bit of Calare. The margin would remain similar and Labor would still hold Macquarie.
Parkes is hard to put into quota without messing up the quotas of other seats because A: seats cannot cross state borders so it has to remain in the sparsely populated central and west of New South Wales, extending from Dubbo right across to the South Australian border at Broken Hill; and B: New England is under quota (this can be solved by New England taking in parts of Hunter, but this would not solve the issue entirely with Parkes). New England could also take in a small western portion of Page. This one’s tricky.
Nether
South Eastern NSW has a few of what are the biggest community of interest ‘FAILS’.
Eden Monaro – the Snowy Valleys Shire ( Tumut and Tunbarumba’ has no community of interest with the rest of EM. Being cold in winter and being able to see snow doesn’t count. Snowy Valleys primary community of interest is with Wagga and to a lesser extent Albury.
Yass Valley Shire is also questionable – more in common with Goulburn though combining all of the Canberra hinterland into EM might be the CofI.
Hume – the boundaries are a shocker – the Southern Highlands are in the seat of Whitlam whilst Hume goes around extending to Camden in the north and Boorowa in the south.
Cook – the extension of the Georges River shows no CofI.
What I would look at is:
– moving Snowy Valleys to Farrer or Riverina.
– look at moving Yass Valley Shire somewhere – not sure may be Hume.
– tidying up Hume so it doesnt have the gap
. Moving both EM and Gilmore up the coast.
– Abolishing Cunningham and making Whitlam a Wollongong only seat.
– Extend Hughes back down into Wollongong.
– Have Cook as a Shire only seat.
Calare is a bit over quota and losing areas such as the town of Gulgong to New England would also contribute to getting New England up to quota. New England would then definitely be up to quota given that it already has Tamworth and Armidale (note that Armidale’s population increases during uni season due to it being home to New England University, so many regional and rural uni students study there).
@Redistributed you do make some good points. I’m mostly trying to focus on making the seats up to quota as opposed to community of interest for now.
Riverina may need to gain Griffith from Farrer.
I haven’t included estimated margins for the past few seats because they won’t change much in terms of margin unlike coastal seats (my initial proposal I’m drafting up here already has two coastal marginal Labor seats in NSW, Gilmore and Paterson, becoming notionally marginal Liberal seats with Gilmore maybe even fairly safe). It is inevitable that Gilmore will be notionally Liberal given the tiny margin Labor has.
Page would likely need to lose voters to New England and Richmond would lose a small part of its western end (west of Murwilumbah) to Page.
And finally, a look at the Central Coast. Sydney and Newcastle will be discussed later. Dobell looks okay, so I’ll leave it for now, but Robertson needs to gain some southeastern parts of Hunter. The Liberals will need to try extra hard in Robertson, which has Liberal-voting areas like Terrigal and contains the only state Liberal seat on the Central Coast, which is Terrigal (though they have a serious possibility of gaining the state seat of The Entrance from Labor, despite it being in the federal Labor seat of Dobell).
And that’s my initial proposal for regional NSW (outside Sydney and Newcastle). I will update this proposal if necessary. Comments and suggestions are welcome and encouraged. When submissions are open, I will be heavily focusing on regional NSW seats.
@Nether Portal
Given Goulburn itself is entirely north of Hume HWY, would it work for Eden-Monaro to make Hume Hwy the Northern Border? I may as well make Eden-Monaro border Whitlam at the council borders (Goulburn-Mulwaree and Wingecarribee) too. Also, I would reckon if much more of Eurobodalla LGA moves from Gilmore to Eden-Monaro, Constance will go for Eden-Monaro instead. I think he is from the Eurobodalla side of his former Bega state seat.
Another question is, if a seat must take in Singleton and Muswellbrook (cause I really think Hunter will stop at the end of Cessnock LGA this time), which one will it be? I don’t think New England should go any further south (in fact, it should go north and stop at Liverpool Plains LGA given the natural boundaries!). Would it go with Parkes? If so, would Calare become the “massive seat of NSW”?
I want to put it out there that in 1984-1990, Riverina was the “massive seat” (albeit with a name change to Riverina-Darling). Back then, I think Hume was the seat that had Wagga Wagga (Admittedly Gilmore stretched much further west than now in those times).
Sorry I meant Federay Hwy, Not Hume Hwy for Eden Monaro
@Nether Portal
Agreed on port Macquarie I will propose Lyne moves up to the river.
Maitland would move into “hunter” that would move Paterson back to the liberal column
Gilmore and eden-Monaro is a hard one to pick. In my submission Riverina will gain Yass valley after shedding Parkes to Parkes. And then Gilmore will take the rest of eurobodalla including Batemans Bay where Andrew Constance is based so where then does he run? If he runs in Gilmore he will lose some of his liberal voting areas to eden Monaro thus making his task harder. However if it sheds Kiama instead Gilmore is his. Alternatively he could run Eden-Monaro which obtains his former Bega electorate and will gain the liberal voting areas from Gilmore. Thus lowering the mountain of 8.2% to a negligible speed hump that his profile and the anti government vote should even out. I also think eden Monaro will return to bell whether status as I think the circuit breaker was Mike Kelly’s popularity.
My Macquarie will be broken up between the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury. Blue Mountain will combine with the rest of wollondilly from Hume and Lithgow and Oberon from Calare and be notionally liberal. Hawkesbury will combine with singleton cessnock and Maitland. This should be a notional liberal also.
Calare then takes in Muswellbrook from hunter and upper hunter from New England.
Hunter will then be solely be within Lake Macquarie and merge with Shortland with any excess moving south.
Hume will then move east into Whitlam and will also shed Camden and Liverpool to a new division,
Whitlam moves north into Cunningham which is abolished to cover deficits north in Hughes, banks and cook. And excess will then combine with the Liverpool and Camden LGAs some of which comes from Hume, Fowler and the remainder of MacArthur which becomes a Campbelltown based seat to form the new werriwa and Fowler
Parkes is solved by taking Parkes from Riverina nad Liverpool Plains from New England.
New England gains Moree plains and Gwydir from Parkes and kyogle from page.
Farrer stays the same. It’s the only one to do so in my proposal
Page gains the territory south of the Richmond River. it probably doesn’t need to but the river seems like a nice boundary to tighten up.
Do bell will take anything excess from the new hunter and Shortland abolished. An ideal boundary would be the river entrance. And this can move further south into Robertson as well. And if the excess is still in further excess Macquarie can take some in from Robertson.
@leon yes he’s based in batemans bay in eurobodalla and I think he’d be better running there also as it would take liberal voting areas with it and he could turn Bega easier then he could turn the others
If you’d like to see my maps please email me at redistribution@outlook.com.au as I’m having trouble uploading hem onto a map as I can’t quite figure out how
@John
The problem with putting Wollondilly into the mix of your Macquarie is that there are no possible connection by road. There is a huge lake in between Blue Mountains and Wollondilly. I also note that the divide between the southern tablelands and the mid-west (up to wherever Cowra is) have been clear for a long time worth of redistributions now. I note that all of Lithgow, Bathurst, Oberon and Blue Mountains LGA + the Emu Plains area would total to 1.006 seats (based on NSW State redistribution, 2021) so that is better imo and that will be my proposal depending on the numbers given this time. Which is to say i agree with splitting Hawkesbury and Blue Mountains due to a lack of transport connection between the two.
I propose that NO changes be made to Farrer but I also think basically everything else will change at least a bit. Even Bennelong.
Also tbh, I do not see Calare taking Muswellbrook or Hawkesbury combining with Singleton and Cessnock. I do not think it has been done before and it shouldn’t, especially cause at the minimum Windsor and Richmond has no connection to these areas, and Muswellbrook is simply too far away. Maybe Parkes can shrink to take Upper Hunter, Singleton and Muswellbrook (as well as its main city of Dubbo).
I want to abolish 2 seats (Banks, Berowra) and make a new seat based on the Hawkesbury and Northwest Sydney. I intend to include:
All of Hawkesbury LGA
Upper portion of Penrith LGA (Llandilo, Londonderry etc.)
Parts of Blacktown LGA North of Schofields Rd
Parts of Mitchell from Beaumont Hills, North Kellyville and anything further north
Parts of Berowra’s rural areas
As a result, Mitchell will be bound by Old Windsor Rd and the M2, and include everything up to Kellyville, Glenhaven, Cherrybrook, West Pennant Hills and whatever of the current Berowra’s rural areas are left.
I will also make a map soon hopefully.
@leon I’ll be abolishing 4 (Shortland, Barton, Bennelong and Cunningham. Bennelong will move west and take over the name of parramatta due to its significance and he problems associated with naming a division after a place and Barton will move North to take over the Grayndler name due to its significance of being named after the first PM. I will be creating 3 seats, the new Blue mountains seat named Kurrajong after the lake at its centre, a new seat in Sydney west based around Liverpool which will carry the Fowler name with it. Lindsay will take in the rest of Penrith Hume and cede more territory to McMahon will also take in everything west of Cambridge street and Smithfield road in the Fairfield lga from “fowler” while ceding everything east. It will also shed its northern border to Chifley and greenway to the Fairfield border to the prospect reservoir.
Mitchell will be made solely from The Shire.
Blacktown will be divided amongst greenway, Chifley and the new seat taking in the remainder of Blacktown, the hills and the parts of Hawkesbury south of the river.
There is enough population in Hornsby to make up berowra.
Ive finalised all my draft maps with the exception of the old Auburn LGA as its hard to draw a definitive population without proper numbers from theAec.
Send me your maps when your done and I’ll send you what I’ve got
@John @Leon if Shortland goes then either Dobell or Hunter will need to take in parts of southern Newcastle. Newcastle has a total population of over 500,000 so it needs two seats plus a small part of Paterson (Hexham). Paterson loses Maitland to Hunter and gains Buladelah from Lyne, therefore making Paterson a notional Liberal seat.
As for Constance, I personal really don’t want to ruin his shot at winning Gilmore because he seems like a good candidate. My initial proposal has Batemans Bay and Malua Bay still in Gilmore and Kiama moved to Whitlam, so he should still be fine. I don’t exactly know where Constance lives most of the time or where all of his properties are, but I do know from the footage of him at his house in the bushfires that he has a property in Malua Bay, so I’m assuming that’s his hometown. But yes he is from the Eurobodalla Shire.
I think for the South Coast, one issue I can see is that there is only room to remove ONE OF Tumut/Tumbarumba/Yass OR the Southern Highlands. There numbers don’t allow both unless you do something drastic like shoving Cunningham right up into Sutherland Shire. Personally I’d choose to remove the Southern Highlands, as having this area in Whitlam results in Hume being cut almost completely in half.
If Whitlam loses the Highlands, then this compensates Hume for the losses in outer Sydney, and would allow Whitlam to move southwards (gaining Kiama?) to take the pressure of Gilmore.
Unfortunately it leaves E-M largely how it is, but at least Hume and areas west of the divide would be left without the need to undergo massive changes.
I think Eden-Monaro into Yass, Tumut and Tumbaramba is way worse than Southern Highlands in Whitlam, Heathcote in Cunningham and Sans Souci in Cook purely because of the sheer distance. I propose most of Eurobodalla to be moved back into Eden-Monaro (exception is the portion North of Batemans Bay/Clyde River), and place the parts of Goulburn Mulwaree to the south of Hume Hwy (None of Goulburn Proper) into Eden Monaro. The result of this is Constance goes for Eden-Monaro next time for it includes 90% of Eurobodalla and 95% of State Bega.
Also, I think Cook may have to cross Georges River again. Due to the clear abolition of a South or Inner Sydney Seat given enrolment, Banks is definitely gone. The Revesby portion must go to Hughes (Esp. because there are no public transport connection from Holsworthy to Sutherland. I could argue that Sutherland Shire + Chipping Norton, Moorebank, Holsworthy, Revesby, Milperra, Panania and Padstow is basically 2 quotas, but Barton is going to experience problems from this. If Banks is gone, Barton has to .cover from Rockdale to Lugarno, and no matter how far south I try to push its northern boundaries, it is too big (by 15% ish. BTW I used Wolli Creek, Bardwell Creek, Stoney Creek Rd and Henry Lawson Dr). I think this calls for Cook to take some territory north of Georges River. This also requires Cunningham to take Heathcote, Waterfall, Bundeena and Maianbar, and Hughes to give up taking Chipping Norton.
Regardless, I think it is WAY too difficult to make predictions to new seats. From here I will wait till projections are fully out.
@nether portal as I’ve explain my hunter will shrink drastically to be solely based around lake macquarie and any excess will move south. Constance is based in Bateman’s bay. In my opinion he will whichever seat he runs for.
@mark in my proposal it will lose the highlands for that reason
when can we expect them to begin and get the official data
New figures have just been released today for June 2023 enrollments
Leon – You’ve just demonstrated why abolishing Banks would be self-defeating. If you replace one Georges River crossing with two crossings, then what’s the point? Much simpler to add Chipping Norton to Hughes, adjust the Hughes/Cook boundary as needed, and top up Cook with the required amount of voters in the southern St George area.
With the new figures released today, the Average figure for 38 seats in Victoria is 116,706 with a range of 105,035 to 128,376
Current enrollments leave north and west country Victoria is 5,800 short of for quotas of 117,706 per seat
Western suburbs f Melbourne are 19,759 short of 6 seats
Northern Melbourne is 27,613 of 7 seats
The South eastern Suburbs are are 26,219 short of 7 seats
The eastern suburbs are 28,757 short of 7 seats
Gippsland are 8,534 short of 4 seats.
Overall the global north are 53,172 short down from 68,428 short when these boundaries were created.
the global South is 63,510 short compared to 41,605 short in July 2012
@David Walsh
Nevertheless, the way Hughes is drawn is terrible if one considers public transport connections. AEC specifically asks us to consider this in making submissions!
There is literally no way to get from Moorebank or Holsworthy to Menai or Engadine by public transport without going through either Wolli Creek or somewhere around Revesby (the latter being the area I proposed to move into Hughes). Either way, shame it wont work cause Moorebank and Revesby are both more anglo and rich relative to the rest of their LGA (Liverpool and Bankstown) respectively.
Likewise for Macquarie, there is no way (I think) to get from Blue Mountains to Windsor by public transport without going into both Lindsay and Chifley and touching the Greenway border.
Honestly though, Banks havent had a community of interest in a long time (mashing Revesby up with Georges River area). Wonder if this can be fixed.
@David Walsh
I finally was able to draw a Barton whilst assuming Cook no longer crosses the Georges River, Hughes takes in all of Revesby/Padstow/Panania Area, and Banks is abolished. I brought the boundaries all the way down to Forest Rd. This is +6.53% of a (46-seat) quota based on March 2023 projections from the 2021 NSW State redistribution and I expect the projections used in the upcoming redistribution would cut that by 3% hence bringing it within the permissible range.
If this boundary of Barton sounds good then that gives me hope in implementing my proposed Hughes boundaries but it looks a *bit* ugly:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_lOzn7A3NiB9SrlwDvyk8pOjO4siOTmU/view?usp=sharing
@leon how do i draw maps like that on google?
@John
I just screenshotted a map from ABS, and then used photoshop to draw a line around my proposed boundaries, and used an outline of 5px (I think) onto that outline. Then, i upload it to Google Drive and share it, setting it so that anyone with the link can access (but not edit) it.
and how do you determine the new margin?
@John
Sorry, that is not the margin. That is the deviation from the enrolment quota (Based on 2021 State redistribution figures). Should have clarified sorry.
Indicative timetables have been published today. Calls for submissions for all states have been sets as “September/October” but the closing dates are given as October for NSW and November for the other two.
Suggests that NSW will kick off first. But the “determination” dates actually have WA first (24 Sept 2024), then NSW (10 Oct 2024) and finally Victoria (17 Oct 2024). Perhaps a reflection that WA should be quicker with many fewer divisions.
Also interesting that the whole timetable is back out at 13-14 months which had been typical until the last cycle when they were barely 12 months.
@John I still think Cessnock needs to be in Hunter.
But I should say that the Hunter region itself would now have Hunter (a marginal Labor seat that would notionally become a safe Labor seat), Newcastle (still a very safe Labor seat), Paterson (a marginal Labor seat that would notionally become a marginal Liberal seat) and Shortland (still a marginal Labor seat).
@john (the other John) the way you can estimate a margin is by looking at polling place results. For example when I estimated that Paterson would become a notional Liberal seat is from here: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-249.htm which shows that in 2022 the majority of booths in the Port Stephens area were won by the Liberals by at least 52% TPP (though Bobs Farm was over 60% Liberal TPP). Essentially a margin is the difference between the winner’s TPP (two-party-preferred) vote and 50% (for example if someone wins 51% TPP then they have a margin of 1%, if someone wins 70% TPP then they have a margin of 20%).
@Dean Ashley do you know the exact date on when NSW proposals can be submitted?
il be uploading my maps tonight so il share them here. if someone could do a projection of the new margins and deviations from average enrollment id appreciate it
The first of many https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mTLoElTf5dCxSyHsNv2W5O4eqCjNXjmD/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nJly1-bXr15do1GpH-h2msF2f-Ak7SnT/view?usp=drivesdk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kWryXJFERsPKY9tQlXUnAw0SM59R6hTL/view?usp=drivesdk
@Nether Portal, dates are still vague. Just “September / October” for the call for suggestions and “October” for the closing.
See https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2023/nsw/timetable.htm
The closing date has to be a Friday, so the latest date in October is the 27th. The Gazette notice calling for suggestions has to be a Wednesday, a little over four weeks earlier, i.e. 27 Sept for a 27 Oct deadline. My money would be on that timing but a week earlier might be plausible.
@Dean Ashley thanks!
The Victorian June 2023 enrolment figures are still showing 20.5 seats north of the river and 17.5 seats south – the trend has moved slightly back toward the 0.5. So a substantial proportion of a seat has to span the river. The question is which seat crosses and which gets abolished. Abolish a north of the river seat and Menzies becomes the obvious crossing seat. Abolish a south of the river seats and it could be Melbourne or Jaga Jaga or possibly McEwen.
@ Redistributed, I am not sure that you are correct in that the trend has moved slightly back to .5 both both north and south of the Yarra.
I think they are showing that the north is closing the gap to a full seat surely but slowly each month and the south is going backwards.
I still believe that a seat does not have to cross the river after this redistribution when you allow for the growth pattens.
However if this is a need to move people, then some of Casey can be moved into McEwan, JagaJaga or Indi.
Indi makes sense particularly is Nicholls picks up Euroa.
While the commission could just abolish 1 seat they could abolish 2 seats and create another. If the latter is the case my money is on Deakin and Goldstein being abolished and a new seat at the top end of Dandenong east side of Hotham
@captain moonlight yes given that there is a 10% variation allowance it can be done without crossing the river.
but i dont believe it will be necessary to abolish more then one in the case of the Victoria given that unlike nsw none are more then 5-6% of variation. in nsws case il be abolishing 4 and creating 3 as there is the need in the west due to higher population growth and variation in that region. Mcewen is the one that problaby needs to given that its made up of 4 partial LGAs this can reduced to 1-2 and then transfer the name as its after a PM. in the case of Indi I agree Nicholls should pickup Euroa and il proposing something to that effect
Thanks John
I think McEwan’s issue is that is the traditionally last seat drawn and ends up with what’s left.
Like most seats in country Victoria I see McEwan moving east as it will most likely lose its western portion to Bendigo.
The only potential issue I see with Euroa moving to Nicholls is that it crosses the Hume and I don’t know if the Commission will draw a seat that you have to drive out of and then enter it again at the mower end
My nicholls will move se taking in the remainder of Mitchell from mcewen and Bendigo as well as Strathbogle, Murrindindi and Mansfield from Indi. Indi will take in Moira shire from nicholls and Bendigo will shed Macedon ranges and castlemaine and the take campaspe from nicholls. I’ve just uploaded my NSW maps and will be doing Vic soon. They arent finalized but I’m interested to see what the new deviations and margins are if anyone is able to do that
A couple of random oddities I just noticed that should be rectified in the next redistribution. There is a little portion of Mulgrave in Bruce (grouped with places as far southeast as Narre Warren and Berwick with which it has no community of interest) that should be with the rest of Mulgrave in Bruce or any successor seat. Also strange that Clematis and Avonsleigh on either side of Emerald are in Casey while Emerald is in La Trobe. Those two localities are essentially extensions of Emerald and should be in the same seat, preferably Casey. The entire Cardinia Shire portion in the Dandenongs should be in Casey, in fact they should be in the Yarra Ranges shire as well.
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