At the start of this year I put together two blog posts looking at likely trends in how the redistributions might be drawn in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, looking at how much each seat is above or below the estimated enrolment quota.
For today’s post I am updating the maps from those posts with the latest data, as of May 2023.
New South Wales and Victoria are each losing a seat, while Western Australia is gaining a seat. This means, in the case of New South Wales, that seats will need to be drawn so that they are relatively close to a quota which will be the equivalent of 1/46th of the state enrolment at the time that the statistics are calculated. There are currently 47 seats, so most existing seats fall short of the necessary population. As each seat is redrawn to bring it up to quota, eventually a seat will be changed so much as to not resemble its predecessor, and thus will effectively be abolished. The same is true in Victoria, and true in reverse in Western Australia.
These electorates must be drawn to be within 10% of the quota as of the time of the redistribution, and within 3.5% of a quota based on estimates of enrolment 3.5 years from now. For now, I don’t have any projected figures, so I’m just looking at current figures. It would make sense for some seats to be drawn under quota if they are projected to grow faster than other areas, and vice versa.
For this post I am using the May 2023 enrolment statistics, but I’m also comparing them to the December and September 2022 numbers to get a sense of trends – some seats are getting closer to the quota, and others are moving further away.
Let’s start with NSW. Not much has changed on the map.
As of December 2022, the 27 seats in the Greater Sydney region were 1.29 seats under-quota. But Sydney is now growing faster than regional NSW, so that shortfall is now just 1.25 seats. I expect projected figures will be less than that.
Zooming in, it becomes clear that the growing areas are all in Western Sydney. The 11 seats of Western Sydney were 14% of a seat under-quota as of September, and are now just 1.7% under quota. Unfortunately this doesn’t mean these seats will be left alone, as shortfalls in other parts of Sydney will force dramatic changes in this area to meet up with regional NSW.
Meanwhile the remaining 16 seats in central, northern and southern Sydney were 1.17 seats under quota as of September and 1.24 as of May. I would expect a seat in this area to be abolished, most likely in northern Sydney. The six seats of northern Sydney only contain about 5.48 seats worth of enrolment.
Next up, Victoria.
Victoria has a similar story, in that most of the shortfall is in Melbourne, but Melbourne is growing faster. Melbourne was 89% of a seat short of its 26th seat in September, but that number is now 85%.
Central and eastern Melbourne are both falling further under quota, while the six seats of western Melbourne are creeping up closer to the quota. South-eastern Melbourne is steady, about 14% of a seat under quota. The fifteen seats in central and eastern Melbourne were 47.5% under quota in September, but that number is now up to 56%. Meanwhile western Melbourne has gone from 27% under to just 14.6% under.
If you look at individual seats, this becomes clearer. Five western Melbourne seats – Lalor, Calwell, Gorton, Gellibrand and Hawke – are amongst the eight seats growing fastest relative to the rest of the state.
Finally, Western Australia:
Unsurprisingly, the same patterns are obvious in Perth – the seats on the outskirts of the city are growing fastest relative to the rest. Hasluck, Brand, Canning, Pearce and Burt were 25% over quota as of September, and now they are almost 30% over. Meanwhile actual raw enrolment numbers have been falling slightly in Durack.
Every seat in WA is over quota, but some more than others. The three regional seats were collectively 16.4% over quota as of September, but now that number is 14.8%.
The latest newspoll will bouy the coalition they are now effectively back to the same poll numbers as they were before the election. Meaning all the ground labor took since the election has now been clawed back the next one will be released just before the referendum and if I were albanese I’d be worried. The referendum could be his u doing. Peter Dutton has done alot better in the preferred pm stakes as well as disapproval and approval ratings while Albo is now I. Negative territory.
AEC’s referendum enrolment figures are now available. Rolls closed a few days ago.
https://www.aec.gov.au/enrolling_to_vote/enrolment_stats/referendum/index.htm
The late surge in enrolments will change the estimated quota deviations from what’s above. There was a lot of growth particularly amongst 18 to 24 year-olds and First Nations people. Not all of them would’ve enrolled at the same rate nationwide. I was just comparing the above maps with the latest AEC stats.
Parkes saw the biggest jump in enrolments in NSW. Parkes has the largest First Nations population in NSW and has a young-ish population. Outer suburban electorates like Macarthur, Werriwa and Chifley also saw huge jumps. It could be a combination of population growth and migrants taking up citizenship, rather than an increase in enrolment rates amongst under 25’s.
Some under-quota electorates have narrowed a lot of their enrolment shortfall but are still under-quota e.g. Mackeller, North Sydney.
Raue could you plug in these new numbers?
Bit busy. I’ll return to the redistribution after the referendum.
NSW suggestions will open tomorrow, 27 Sept. Closes 27 Oct.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2023/nsw/timetable.htm
NSW data is now up.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2023/nsw/enrolment-projections.htm
I need help understanding the data and how it applies to my maps. If anyone can assist? This is only my 3rd redistribution and I’m new to how to read sa2s and sa1s.
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