9:15 – It looks like we’ve got most of the 2PP count we’ll get tonight and the swing is sitting on just over 22%, which is pretty substantial but Labor will still retain the seat easily.
8:04 – We’re getting a 2PP count now, but we don’t have a sense of where the booths are coming from. At the moment this count has about half as many votes as the primary vote count and Labor is on 67%, which would be a swing of just over 20%.
7:54 – Labor will clearly win this seat. It’s not clear what the final margin will be but it should be reasonably safe. The Liberal is currently on 17.65%, trailing Labor on 49.81%. That leaves over 32% of the vote available as preference flows. If those split evenly, that would leave Labor on about 66%. Much less than in 2021, but still very solid.
7:33 – The primary vote swing against Labor is generally over 30%, ranging from 29.3% at Safety Bay Senior High School to 37.4% at Hillman PS. But not very much of that swing is going to the Liberals. The swing to the Liberal Party is ranging from 3.1% at Safety Bay PS to 7.9% at East Waikiki PS. Over 10% of the vote has gone to Legalise Cannabis, and over 15% has gone to independents, mostly to Hayley Edwards.
7:16 – I hadn’t been planning to cover this but I am back home now so I might drop in a few comments.
For now we don’t have a 2CP count. So far we have primary vote counts in five out of ten booths. At the moment Labor is on 48.5% of the primary vote, with the Liberal candidate second on 15%. Independent candidate Edwards is very close to the Liberal on 14.8%. Apparently the WAEC will be holding back on the 2CP count until it becomes clearer who will make that count.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the Western Australian state seat of Rockingham.
I’m out tonight so won’t be covering this by-election but feel free to use this post to discuss the results.
You can read my guide to Rockingham here.
As of 9:15 pm AEST (7:15 pm AWST), with 15.84% of the votes counted, independent Hayley Edwards’ primary vote has risen to 15.07%, just 2 votes behind the Liberal candidate with a primary vote of 15.11%, while Labor primary vote has dropped to 48.30%. I think it will probably end up as a Labor vs Edwards contest.
As of 7:49 pm AWST, 50.82% of the votes has been counted. The Liberal candidate’s lead over independent Hayley Edwards has grown large enough for the WAEC to determine that the Liberals will finish in the top two and calculate an indicative 2PP count. So still a classic contest.
At 9pm WST
22027 votes counted, over 7000 voters didn’t bother to vote.
MARSHALL – ALP 13,978 65.20%
HUDSON – LIB 7,461
First preference votes show ALP dropping by 30%.
This election result shows that Rockingham has moved on from the 2021 vote. ( So has the 2021 liberal candidate. ) The 2021 WA Election results are no longer relevant.
The last time Rockingham went to preferences, with a 2PP of 65 35 was in 2013. Which is worth mentioning the year both WA Liberals and Federal Liberals easily defeated a confused and disorganised ALP/ Greens parties.
My prediction,
1 One term ALP federal government,
2WA Libs to win 25 seats in the Lower house and 15 upper in 2025.
The swing against Labor was huge. One of the biggest in history I believe. Over 30%! That’s bigger than the swing to Labor from the Liberals at the 2013 Miranda state by-election in NSW, which was the biggest swing at a by-election in NSW history.
The Liberal candidate got 15% of the vote, was almost pushed to 3rd spot and you think the LNP can win the next Federal election and the next WA state election, what are you smoking?
Agree Paddy – by election swings are not always indicative of how bad the next election swing will be. For Miranda in NSW, the Liberals actually regained the seat in the general election (but that was because Barry Collier decided not to recontest). The general election did see a 10%+ swing to Labor, but they fell short and ended up with fewer than 40 seats.
Assuming a result similar to NSW 2015, the Liberals in WA should be able to win at least 20 seats, possibly up to 25 at the next election.
Yoh An, Liberals or Liberals + Nat? You do realize if the Nats win 5 or 6 seats, 25 Liberals would get them into government, Not going to happen, Not overturning a massive majority in one stroke, Cook is no Newman. I’d say he’s more of a Dennis Napthine but Napthine had a 1 seat majority, not a 45 seats majority over all over parties or so.
Mettam can’t win the next state election, would love to be proven wrong, even liberal strategists and supporters will tell you privately that they won’t win the next election and instead will just become a stronger opposition.
Most Western Australians also have no clue who Mettam is, backing the voice will not help her party as this is 2, years out from the state election and voters have short term memory, this unpopular heritage law also will have faded by then.
Why have Rockingham residents supported Labor again? M Marshall unknown, and Labor/McGowan have done NOTHING for Rockingham, just kept people in fear over Covid and shut down many businesses. If people think this new Aboriginal Heritage Law is NOTHING..wake up, maybe not to you in suburbia but it will affect the whole State.
Well Mettam wasn’t a good choice either. She would be a disastrous premier.
It’s time to introduce write-in candidates option like America. It could work under preferential voting if it was optional to number the write in box, you would then write in the name of the person and hypothetically if that person was eligible for parliament and won the write in vote which is close to 0% chance of happening, then they would be duly elected.
I am saying this because of lack of credible choices on the ballot and especially the case in seats like Warrendyte where a major party is sitting it out. It isn’t giving the voters a choice, and since it’s compulsory to vote, I encourage blanking the ballot if your political party doesn’t run because there is no over option if you don’t like the candidates an parties listed. write in candidates would fix this problem.
@Daniel T I must admit while I would be still voting properly it would be hilarious to see what people put as their write-ins! I remember in 2016 in America candidates like Deez Nuts (in reference to the meme and joke), Harambe (the dead gorilla from the Cincinnati Zoo) and Cap’N Crunch (an American brekky cereal) were some popular write-ins. But then in August 2016 the boomers decided to punish satirical candidates, sad because American politicians aren’t very good but not voting is not good either.
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