Draft state electoral boundaries for Western Australia released

1. Quite surprised they didn’t cede more from state Perth considering it was well over a quota.

2. Am I right in saying that WA has redistributions every four years? If so, that reduces a lot of the need to future-proof electorates for expected population growth.

3. Yes, that is correct Wilson. In fact, this is also the case for SA, NT and the ACT which all require redistributions for their state districts every election cycle (i.e., every 4 years).

4. thats because there populations are lower and the slightest shift can alter the balance in a very small space of time compared to qld nsw and vic

5. im glad the commission has decided to do what is necessary and abolish a regional district and create a new one in the city. there will be alot of complaints but it was inevitable as it was becoming unsustainable and ballooning. at very least in the long term until they create more seats they wont have to do it again

6. The new metro boundaries are ridiculous

   Oakford is the type of seat you want to avoid creating, having a chunk of Kwinana, Jandakot and Armadale with eachother is a bizarre choice, where would an MLA even set up their office? These suburbs have next to nothing in common with eachother.

   The new seat of Padbury and what’s become of Hillarys is also very strange, it breaks the rough way the seats have looked for decades prior and creates two long, one suburb wide, coastal seats as opposed to two compact squarish seats. I assume the WAEC has decided Marmion Avenue is now a big enough barrier to warrant such a layout, but intuitively (I’ve lived all over this part of Perth) it’s not, especially if you’re going to keep Joondalup how it is.

   Speaking of, Balcatta has gained half of Gwelup across the Mitchell Freeway, which is not only geographically separated from the rest of the seat, but one that has nothing in common with the rest, it would be better fit in Churchlands.

   I’m not sure how this effects the margins, they’ll also be so distorted from the last election it’ll be as good as impossible to draw too many conclusions. Abolishing NWC and creating Oakford means -1 for the Nats and +1 for Labor to begin with.

7. Agree Angus, I don’t know why they had to reconfigure Carine and Hillarys districts into elongated north south shapes. In fact, they resemble two old SA state districts (Mitchell and Bright) which were modified to become compact square districts (Gibson and Black).

8. @angus i agree with them abolishing NWC but it wont necessarily mean -1 for the nats and +1 for Labor as the pilbara area which is labor is being largely absorbed into kimberley and i think it will be a neutral shift. and Labor arent guaranteed to gain the new perth seat. as due to the shifts of the boundaries the libs might be able to pickup metropolitain seats now depending how it has altered the margin so thats not a given. but i do agree the new boundaries are wonky. there will be objections and this is only the first proposal. id say we will see more sensible boundaries on the next run. il be looking at them and propsoing changes. the one thing i dont like is them crossing the metropolitain boundary into mandurah. as i showed in my proposal they could have changed the current boundaries to avoid the metropltain areas crossing into regions and vice versa

9. Vic liberal, I would say the Perth-Mandurah boundary is not a hard one and suburbs either side actually share similar characteristics. Pretty much like the Brisbane-Gold Coast boundary with suburbs like Beenleigh, Yatala and Ormeau all being considered part of the Brisbane commuter belt unlike other boundaries such as Central Coast-Sydney that are separated by uninhabited reserves.

10. Making a new metro seat and abolishing a rural one is only going to benefit Labor. Why does it seem that redistributions are generally anti-Coalition and pro-Labor? Not making any stupid claims here but still.

    This is really just going to make it easier for Roger Cook to hold on to voters and damage the Coalition’s chances of regaining any seats except a few like Churchlands and Nedlands.

    This brings me with this question: which seats do you think the Liberals and Nationals will likely or possibly gain from Labor in 2025? And how many do you think they will gain? Will they have more than 20 seats?

    Any thoughts?

11. Nether Portal, the reason for redistributions always removing rural seats is to keep up with population movements. People (especially new migrants) generally settle in urban areas, and this trend is even observable in places like US which are becoming more urbanised.

    This fact means the conservative parties have to moderate their image, so they appeal better to suburban voters as well as rural voters.

12. **Gwelup in Scarborough, not Churchlands as I previously stated.
    I can’t see these changes in the Northern suburbs remaining, I’m keen to see what others propose to fix up Oakford/the East, the new seat needs to go.

13. Carine/Padbury has a shot of being held by Labor if the election is a 2017 landslide, since the margin is now safe Labor, but it will be a very tight contest im 2025 with both parties fighting it hard.

14. I have estimated margins up here:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/21/western-australian-draft-state-redistribution/

15. The redistribution will not exclusively benefit labor and hurt the liberals and nationals. Liberals contest metropolitan seats and in an ordinary election win some too. Labor do well in the outback among indigenous voters and unionized workers. Redistributions aren designed to make equal representation among all districts. And with the lda allowance you could say there is over representation.

16. There’s a colour mistake with Churchlands.

17. @Ian I noticed that too.

    So if the WAEC decides to make this the official redistribution and does not change it any further, then at the 2025 election, each party will go into the election with these seat numbers:

    Labor: 53 seats (0, +1 and -1; holding the new seat (Oakford) and losing Churchlands to the Liberals)
    Coalition: 6 seats (0, +1 and -1; Liberals: 3 seats (+1) Nationals: 3 seats (-1); Liberals gaining Churchlands and Nationals losing North West Central due to its abolition)

    Also @Yoh Anh yes I’m aware of that but there are still federal seats like Cowper in NSW which are well over quota yet no redistribution has occurred recently.

18. Also, again, which seats do you think the Liberals and the Nationals can regain back from Labor in 2025? Obviously Churchlands would be one of them for the Liberals who would hold Cottesloe and Vasse, but which other seats? How big will the Coalition be at the next election; 5 seats, 10 seats, 15 seats, 20 seats, more?

19. Nether portal, the extreme variations in enrolment for nsw federal districts is because it has been 8 years since the last one was completed in 2015.

    Nsw was due to start one for federal seats earlier this year but it is deferred because the state is likely to lose a seat in reapportionment. Fortunately that redistribution should start by august/September this year and should be finalised by end of next year.

20. I think the nationals should be favoured to gain warren blackwood and have a shot to pick up pilbara too, especially if Merome Beard decides to run there instead of challenging Shane Love for preselection in Mid west district.

    Alternatively Shane Love could decide to contest Geraldton and if he does then Labor would be an underdog there.

21. @nether portal there is no coalition there is liberal and national to separate parties in WA. I reckon anything 16% and under is get able. Most if not all of these margins are over inflated by COVID response / McGowan popularity. Expect a double digit swing of about 16-17% in 2025 so around 17 seats. Also this won’t be the final boundaries as I can imagine there will be an influx of objections

22. Agree vic liberal, all seats with margins of 10% or less are where Labor would be seen underdogs and those with sub 20% margins could be seen as toss ups with the Liberals and/or nationals having at least 50% chance of gaining them.

23. I think the regional seats aside from Mandurah and Kimberley will swing back to the conservatives. With Albany being a tossup.

24. @Yoh Anh @Vicliberal thanks for your information. Even if remote (non-urban-residing so not Alice Springs and Katherine in the NT or Broome and Karratha in WA, for example) Indigenous voters originally voted Labor, they have started to vote for conservative parties more recently. We can see this in the Northern Territory after 2012 (more specifically in 2012 and again 2020 as well as likely in 2024, noting this did not occur in 2016 except in Daly). The Nationals have won Pilbara before (when Brendan Grylls was WA Nationals leader, he moved to contest the seat of Pilbara in 2013 and won it from Labor, but lost it in 2017), so they can definitely win it again. Shane Love’s seat will be interesting given that North West Central is now abolished. He might move to Geraldton to contest that seat if he didn’t want to contest the new seat (Mid West). The Nationals should also perform well in the marginal Labor seat of Warren-Blackwood, as you mentioned.

    Obviously the McGowan vote was a big thing in WA Labor getting huge margins in many seats so I guess that could come back. But then of course, a margin that high is hard to get back down. Churchlands is now notionally Liberal but I would’ve expected them to regain it anyway, even if the Labor margin increased; Carine (now Padbury) and Nedlands are also marginal seats for Labor and normally are Liberal seats. Bateman and Riverton are fairly safe seats so also quite possible given they were held by the Liberals pre-2021. The most marginal seat for Labor that they held pre-2021 is Kalamunda, which is a safe seat. It was held by the Liberals from 2008 until 2017 so it could also be winnable. The safest seat that Labor gained from the Liberals in 2021 is Hillarys, so Labor might have a chance there despite Caitlin Collins being the only Labor member ever elected to the seat (previously it was held by Rob Johnson from 1996 until 2017 (as a Liberal from 1996-2016 and as an independent from 2016-2017) and Peter Katsambanis (Liberal) from 2017-2021). Maybe at the next election after 2025 Balcatta could possibly be in play, given that while it’s normally a Labor seat was held by Liberal Chris Hatton from 2013-2017 (the only time it has ever been held by a party other than Labor with the exception of by the Ministerial Party from 1905-1908; note that back then it was in its first incarnation whereas now it’s in its fourth), though I doubt it’s in play this time given it’s a very safe Labor seat. Another seat that could be in play after 2025 is Joondalup; normally it’s a marginal seat and usually is held by the Liberals (the only Labor member being Yaz Mubarakai, who was elected in 2017) but now it’s a very safe Labor seat so I don’t expect much from there. Dawesville could be interesting in 2025, especially if Zak Kirkup recontests.

25. I think labor will have a reduced majority in the LA Probably around 37 seats. But should definately lose majority in the LC assuming they don’t vote themselves out of existince like they did in QLD. Libs will be well placed for the 2029 election.

26. For those who want to view the map: https://www.boundaries.wa.gov.au/boundaries/2023P

27. Using the .shp file data provided I’m also making a few maps with the data using Mapshaper.

    For now, here’s all of WA with proposed boundaries (blank SVG map): https://www.mediafire.com/file/975xczb6te5ftrt/Proposed+Boundarys+WAEC+codes+v2.svg/file

    I will create more maps soon and link them, including some closeup maps of Perth/Mandurah and the Peel Region. Feel free to use and/or modify any maps I create by the way.

28. The other thing I’m going to be raising in my objections is that redistributions are the perfect opportunity for them to unite as best as possible divided suburbs and lgas. I think diving lgas is the wrong way to go. Case In point australind which is effectively divided in two between collie Preston and Murray wellington. Lgas like Kwinana can fit into one district but they seem to want to divide them. That’s why in my submission I united most of the divided lgas where practice and fit larger lgas into the as little number of districts as possible instead of carving them up. Obviously some will have happen over time due to impracticality of doing it all at once. But I’m confident I can build of this first proposal too

29. Perth map with proposed boundaries: https://www.mediafire.com/file/yfolrl5ajhubub2/svgviewer-output.svg.svg/file

    I noticed that the WA state map is in black. I’ll fix it to make it grey. The Perth map is in grey however.

30. I’ve fixed colour issue for the WA state map with proposed boundaries. It is now in grey. Link: https://www.mediafire.com/file/e682v2t38i51ed0/ss7r6gxyj6lkdr713t.svg/file

31. And finally, the Peel Region map with proposed boundaries: https://www.mediafire.com/file/mwdvmt4xprdxbia/qdg55gvgxolkdrdevg.svg/file

    Also I should note that both the Perth map and the Peel Region map include the Mandurah electorates (i.e Dawesville and Mandurah).

32. I think the districts as they are now will be the basis for the final boundaries but with any luck some problems can be ironed out. I’d say oakfort will be there to stay given that’s where the bulk of the growth is.

33. 420 objections. I’ve only gone through the major parties ones but I imagine the bulk are people complaining about the reduction of regional representation using a single template as the did with their suggestions

34. gon through 25 so far and yep its mostly people comaplining. though there is a bit of people opposing the division of baldavis also

Comments are closed.