Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss three upcoming by-elections in Fadden, Rockingham and Warrandyte, and for a brief update on other election news – the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters hearing on expanding the size of parliament, the potential for an early election in Tasmania and upcoming redistributions.
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On Fadden.
I realise the Teals are not a party, but I thought this was a good opportunity to test the waters to see if there is ground swell of support for them, given most of their likely voters lean right. But for reasons only known to them (money??) they chose not to run. If a “Teal” did run, then it would have been wise for Labor to withdraw and direct their voter base towards others, other than the LNP. Labor were never going to be in the hunt for this seat.
One of my electoral rules of thumbs is that in good time people feel freer to vote on 2nd or 3rd level issues, but in tough time it is strong personal issues that take priority. Thus, past representation Robodebt, The Voice and Dutton’s leadership etc will not be a first order issue – people will revert to their normal practice and in this case, it will be the LNP.
Unless some extraordinary ground swell of undetected change is happening out there, I don’t think there will be anything meaningful to read in these tea leaves left behind for any party.
The only one issue I could see resonating is housing / renting affordability and while I personally don’t see this as a Federal issue, it MAY resonate with some people enough to swing behind the Greens.
@Neil, the main benefit Labor get out of participating in this by-election is a health-check of how much Labor support to expect in some of the more marginal Gold Coast state divisions. Particularly Coomera which sits almost wholly inside Fadden and on a small margin which has been getting smaller with population growth. Theodore, Gaven and Bonney are also key for Labor to observe and measure up. They will be deciding if Coomera is worth mounting a key campaign and whether they are going to have to be worried in Gaven. This election might also be a good indicator of attitudes across all of the Gold Coast more broadly. This will be telling for the southern marginals like Currumbin and Burleigh. I also think that this election is offering Labor an opportunity to grow the profile of a figure like Del Fabro. Del Fabro can then be re-fielded as a candidate in the state campaign with a more established public-image.
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