Which NSW councils need ward redistributions?

Prior to the 2021 NSW council elections, I analysed the population trends in another of Sydney councils which have been shouldering the bulk of Sydney’s population growth. I wrote about Camden, Blacktown, a number of other councils, and an overall post.

Now as we get closer to the September 2024 elections, I have started paying attention to which NSW councils might be redrawing their ward boundaries.

Unfortunately there is no central record of the redistribution process, unlike in Victoria and Queensland. Each council handles redistributions through their regular decision-making process, usually involving a round of public consultation.

There are still some rules that apply to this process. Councils must make a final decision by 5 October 2023. Wards in New South Wales must elect the same number of councillors across a council area, and must be drawn so no ward varies from any other ward by more than 10% of enrolment. This process can’t change the structure of the council – the number of wards and number of councillors can only be changed with a referendum.

Some councils are obliged to redraw their ward boundaries, if wards deviated by each other by more than 10% over a specified time period. Councils can also choose to redraw outside of this situation, but this deviation obliges a council to make a change.

It’s worth noting that I originally interpreted the legislation as requiring wards to fall within 10% of the average enrolment, which would have been much less strict in terms of forcing redistributions. Once realising this I had to re-run my calculations and update this blog post.

In today’s post, I’ll be looking at enrolment data to identify councils which are obliged to redraw their map, and those that have narrowly escaped.

When I was first looking into this issue, I downloaded the latest enrolment data for the 48 councils in the state which used wards in 2021 (at the time they were April 2023 data) to look for wards that were 10% higher than other wards in their council. But when I read the legislation, I realised that the trigger is based on a much earlier point in time.

Section 211 of the Local Government Act requires a redistribution if the council becomes aware that a ward deviates by more than 10% during a council’s term of office, and if that difference remains at the end of the first year of the following term.

This means that a deviation would only force a redistribution if it had appeared during the previous council term. If a new deviation was to appear now, it would only trigger a redistribution prior to the 2028 election (assuming it was sustained into the next term).

For the purpose of this post, I’ve looked at enrolment data as of three points in time: November 2021 (the last figures prior to the election), November 2022 and June 2023 (the most recent data).

48 councils held elections using wards in 2021. Plus Central Coast has wards, but did not hold an election in 2021. Of these 49 ward maps, this next table shows the 25 with the greatest divergence in ward enrolment, although you can only see the first twenty on the first page.

It’s worth noting that Dubbo and Walcha councils passed referendums abolishing their wards for 2024, while Murray River voted down a similar referendum.

I believe there are 13-14 councils which are obliged to redraw their boundaries. Dubbo and Walcha would have needed to redraw their boundaries, but won’t have any wards come 2024.

The other councils are Camden, Blacktown, Murray River, Shellharbour, Cessnock, The Hills, Tenterfield, Maitland, Bayside, Port Stephens, Parramatta, Georges River and Lake Macquarie.

It’s not clear to me whether Waverley is affected. The November 2021 numbers showed the Lawson ward as 9.95% bigger than the Hunter ward. Depending on whether there were fresh numbers prior to the December election, it’s not clear if they are obliged to redraw.

Shellharbour previously had no wards but (foolishly) adopted a system of four wards as of the 2021 election. Murray River had an opportunity to be rid of their imbalanced wards, but voted overwhelmingly against such a change.

A majority of these councils have something in common: they are all on the fringe of urban sprawl, with a substantial amount of new housing growth concentrated in these areas. This includes Camden, Blacktown, The Hills, Shellharbour, Maitland, Cessnock and Lake Macquarie.

When you examine the individual wards (shown in the map at the end of the post) you can see that the growth has been concentrated in certain parts of each council.

The First Ward of Blacktown is now 39% above the smallest ward, and the Fifth Ward is now 26% above the smallest, while wards covering the more established south of the council are running well below average.

The same is true in Camden. The North Ward is now 40% larger than the South Ward. The population growth has been focused in the north.

The same trend is even true in Dubbo, with the two over-quota wards covering the outer fringes of the town of Dubbo. The same may be true of many other regional cities, but they have the good sense to avoid splitting up the council into too many wards, so the issue doesn’t come up.

Parramatta is an interesting inclusion on the list. It is not on the outskirts of Sydney, but the population growth in the area has been concentrated in the Olympic Peninsula area, which includes Olympic Park, Wentworth Point, Silverwater and Newington. This area was added to the City of Parramatta when the council amalgamations were implemented in 2016. The enrolment data was updated to the new boundaries in early 2017. In the following six years, enrolment numbers in this area increased by 60% while the rest of the City increased by just 6%.

While most housing infill has been spread across council areas, in Parramatta it is much more heavily concentrated in an area that previously contained relatively few homes.

Finally, I’ve also included a map showing every ward in NSW and how much it deviates from the council enrolment average. The map is zoomed in to Sydney (where most wards are) but you can scroll around the state.

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