I’ve been using this quiet period between elections to get ready for the elections of 2024, and as part of that I have now published my guide to the 2024 Queensland state election.
This will likely be the biggest election event of 2024, and the latest, scheduled for 26 October 2024.
While I am still waiting for electoral boundaries to be finalised before I can do the ACT, NT and NSW council elections, there’s no redistribution needed for the Queensland state boundaries.
The guide features profiles of all 93 state seats. Each profile features the history and geography of the seat, and tables and maps showing the results. They will eventually feature candidate lists, but at the moment 16 months out from the election this section is pretty much entirely empty.
Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but I’ve unlocked four marginal seat guides as a free sample:
You can click through to each seat via this map below.
Should be an interesting one, this time around.
Personally, I think you should roll over every government after 10 or so years – it is just good for democracy. I think the Palaszczuk Government has reached the end of its life and it is now time for someone else to have a turn. But David Crisafulli does not inspire me to vote FOR him or his government. He is a whinger par excellent, but I suppose that is what opposition leaders have to do. To give Palaszczuk her credit she has introduced a few popular initiatives over the past 12 months that has effectively painted Crisafulli into a corner that he will have to go against party position and ideology to either oppose; or declare he won’t change (which raises the ghosts of Newman).
By all accounts, Crisafulli has the media on-side. I don’t read the local rags (paywall) and rarely watch the local TV news, but when I do it mostly leads with negative stories about the current government. So that is a big hurdle she has to over-come.
But I keep thinking back to the dying days of the Beattie/Bligh Government and I often thought they won one too many terms. The next time they got walloped and if it wasn’t for the sheer ineptitude and arrogance of Campbell Newman and his crew of ideologues – the LNP would only now be coming to the end of their governmental life span.
This election is a bit like the last Federal election, on one hand it was a good election to lose with the multitude of problems coming up over the horizon. So too will be the next Queensland State Elections will be a good one to lose (provided you are not a power crazed person / party), because the issues the Queensland Government faces are the same in every other State – a lack of revenue and an overwhelming demand for services and facilities. That is why I thought Palaszczuk latest budget was a master stroke in that it showed that increased revenue (from a Resources Super Tax) CAN deliver a lot of benefits for the community. The LNP and their financial backers would be ideologically opposed to this tax, which means that they have to find additional revenue to fund these services or drop them – a very difficult position.
I am just not sure that the electorate will or can put 2 and 2 together and possibly will be more strongly swayed by all the negative doom and gloom media reporting that goes on in this State.
Neil, I wonder if David Crisafulli is in the same position as Chris Minns (NSW Labor leader). Minns just won a narrow victory and governs in minority whilst inheriting a strong infrastructure program started under the Coalition. For NSW, whether Labor and Minns continue with this program or let it stall will determine whether they can secure a stronger victory in the next election (like Colin Barnett, Dan Andrews or now Premier Anastasia who all took office in minority or narrow majority and then built it up) or end up flopping like Victoria, SA with Steven Marshall or the NT which ended up being one term wonders.
Yoh An, I really couldn’t say. I live in Queensland and only get passing information on other states through the media, which is often highly biased.
My gut says Crisafulli will win, but it will be a win based on negativity, not on any positive agenda. He is then more likely to spend the next 4 years realising that the problems are structural, but he can’t or won’t admit that, so his MO will be to blame, blame and blame some more the previous government.
I am not here to defend the Labor Government, but it is a bit like what is playing out in the US at present, a lot of the problems are with “us” as a collective. Speaking as a person who as worked as a technocrat in both State and Local Governments – government is bloody hard work. There are no easy choices, if so surely they would have already been taken – you be a fool not to do so. But for many “outsiders” they believe or are egged on by those who should know better, that the choices and solutions are never easy and ALWAYS involve winners and loosers. Something politicians and technocrats are loathed to articulate.
Sorry, that last sentence should read:
But for many “outsiders” they believe or are egged on by those who should know better, that the choices and solutions are easy. But inevitably they ALWAYS involve winners and loosers. Something politicians and technocrats are loathed to articulate.
Neil, I see you’ve said that there are no easy choices in government, yet the increase in resources taxes seems to have been a pretty easy decision (provided you’re not the Liberal Party, which has corporate interests and small government ideologues to placate). Why hasn’t this been done before now, and why has Labor not announced any further plans for tax increases on either resources or on large corporations in general? That would bring them more revenue for more infrastructure building.
Neil, if Crisafulli does go down the negative path in the event that he and the LNP manage to squeak out a victory, then he would be in danger of becoming Campbell Newman 2.0 or even Dennis Napthine in Victoria who both ended up losing what should have been a viable or ‘winnable’ election for their side.
I do agree the current Labor government under Anastasia is very similar to the NSW Coalition government 2011-2023 which advanced major infrastructure projects, both in Sydney and regional/rural areas. This does make it hard for the opposition to argue that there needs to be a ‘change’, although issues like youth crime could be the deciding factor, similar to stoushes with the public service which was one of the main factors that led to the defeat of the NSW Coalition government.
I honestly don’t see Labor winning with current polling slowly worsening for the government over the last couple of months however, Labor still have a small chance to turn it around.
I don’t know if you live in Queensland or not Wilson, but the resource sector still wield enormous political power and capital. The Resource Sector has been running ads on TV and most likely on social media (not on it myself) for at least 1 year complaining about the Resource Super Tax. If they and Gina want to put some serious cash behind a negative Labor campaign come closer to the election, then I think that is the answer to your question. Labor are still risk adverse to what can and most likely will happen if they push too far and we (collectively) are likely to drink from the Kool Aid and accept the messaging uncritically.
States also have limited taxing powers. So it is not an easy proposition for them to raise the necessary revenue to do the things they are responsible for. That is part of the schizophrenic nature of Federalism we have here in Australia. The Feds tax and the State spends and never the twain shall meet in a rational manner.
Yoh An, I think Campbell Newman is a special case and I always love raising him in such forums. He won government with 78 seats to Labor’s 7 seats. The very next election he went on to blow a 71 seat majority and lose his own seat in the process – he was a master class for political scientist as to what not to do in government.
Unless Crisafulli is a complete idiot (and he is often quoted saying he has learnt the lessons of Newman) he won’t make the same mistakes. As I said earlier, I see him realising that it is easy to carp in opposition, but it is very hard to fix the problems that all State Governments face, so I see his natural disposition is to deflect and blame. History shows that once in power, you generally get 2 if not 3 terms.
I know nothing about Dennis Napthine in Victoria.
I think it’s rather likely that Labor loses its majority this election – they’re fighting on multiple fronts and are clearly vulnerable on a lot of issues – but I’m not yet convinced the LNP are necessarily going to sweep into power either.
Youth crime scare campaigns happened before last election too and amounted to very little in the end, so I don’t know that they will necessarily be decisive – they could be but Palaszczuk has never really had the media on her side at all here and has managed to get by anyway.
If Labor’s position further deteriorates a leadership change to desperately try to save things could happen – Miles or Fentiman would be the most likely candidates.
It will be very interesting to see how well the Greens do. Anything less than gaining McConnell and Cooper would be a real failure for them, but seats like Greenslopes and Miller could be in reach too. Moggill could be winnable if there isn’t any sort of swing to the LNP in Brisbane, but I’m still sceptical there.
I will raise another important issue that SHOULD be on the agenda for this election, but possibly won’t. We are 9 years out now and 8 years out by the time of this election from Brisbane holding the Olympic Games. It is my observations that we are currently hopelessly under-target for making this a games that we won’t be embarrassed about on an international stage There is a lot of new facilities and public transport upgrades that have to happen before then and I don’t see any serious movement in these areas at present. That time flys by quickly and thus far the Federal Government has not been rushing to dip its money into the coffers.
Neil, for Dennis Napthine and his predecessor Ted Baillieu – they were sort of neutral (nothing like the antagonistic style used by Campbell Newman). But I read some commentary that both failed to advance the strong infrastructure program required to support Melbourne and its growing regional areas, which fed into a perception of neglect.
This was also a criticism levelled at WA Liberal Premier Colin Barnett, who could have salvaged his party’s position had he advanced projects such as rail expansion (Metronet) which the current Labor administration is doing.
Neil, yes I live in Queensland, but I haven’t seen these ads. Labor need to be brave and ignore the mining companies’ demands and rhetoric. Ad I mentioned, even outside of resources, many companies have been doing very for themselves over the past few years while the majority of people struggle with the cost of living. Taking from those who have benefited most to give those doing it tough is the sort of economic justice Labor ought to be about. I hope this episode emboldens them somewhat to seek further revenue increases from the wealthy and powerful.
Yoh An, infrastructure (in its wider context) is one of those issues that people like to bang on about, but its moving parts are far more complex than what the general public knows or understand.
As a town planner working on infrastructure planning and charging in a local government context, our responsibilities were more narrow. But at the same time we also had a very good and exact handle on what infrastructure was needed to be provided where, when and approximate cost. With infrastructure charging on any new development, we also had a pot of money that help pay a fair share of this burden. Nevertheless it used to make my eyes water whenever I saw our projected infrastructure spend over the next 20 years – we are talking billions for a level of government that has mainly one source of revenue – rates.
However, I also know from my experience in State Government that they have NO such equivalent forward planning and costing document. The best they do is a 4 year projection contained in the budget, but behind that will hundreds of billions of dollars on roads, schools and hospitals that WILL be needed given all the growth areas they have declared and projected population growth to occur (I think QLD has a current internal migration growth of 36k people each year, while all the other states are losing population). All this future costs is “off the books” and eventually needs to be funded from general revenue. If the true cost to State Government from infrastructure spend alone was known to the general public – then I think the good people of Queensland will all be having collective heart attacks, such will be the magnitude of this future problem.
Personally, I don’t think ANY State Government wants this dirty laundry aired, so they all eventually fall victim to the inadequacies of there own non-planning.
I think the LNP will win and get big swings to them in regional Queensland. They look set to pick up all the seats in Townsville and Cairns, as well as seats like Bundaberg, Caloundra, Gaven, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Redlands, etc. Rockhampton and Gladstone should be interesting too.
The Greens could possibly pick up some inner-city Brisbane seats. Even though the Greens will only ever support a Labor government (in any case and in any part of the country), if the LNP can pick up enough regional seats then they will get a majority or a maybe a minority. It won’t be as big as Newman’s majority though.
This will be the LNP’s best shot since 2015. There’s growing baggage associated with Palaszczuk, the ‘it’s time’ factor, the fading of memories of Campbell Newman and the leaving behind of the pandemic politics.
Labor had surprise wins in seats with much older demographics in 2020 e.g. Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Pumicestone, Nicklin. This was probably because of the hard border during Covid and that was really popular amongst older voters. Normally these seats are very relient on tourism. Labor can still hold Pumicestone. Caloundra and Nicklin will likely be the first to go, as may Hervey Bay – they’re historically non-Labor seats.
I don’t smell a 2012-style wipeout coming. It might be a minority LNP or small majority LNP (like in NSW/federally). There’s little reason for David Crisafulli to become another Campbell Newman if he does become Premier. He won’t be seen as a saviour of the LNP. Newman and nearly everyone else thought he was invincible in 2012 and would serve at least two terms after winning 78 seats. That’s where the problems began. There’s also a path for Labor to still cling on, but it will require support from Sue Bolton or KAP.
Agree Votante, Crisafulli would be advised to use a low profile and minimal target strategy similar to Chris Minns as NSW Labor leader in order to lead his party to victory. He would emphasise the need to continue with Labor’s infrastructure program and focus on public services, whilst also offering some alternative solutions for tackling youth crime. This would maximise gains in rural/regional areas and could provide a path to win some key Brisbane marginal seats.
LNP won’t win Cairns with Entsch’s wife with that current scandal, no chance. LNP should dump her if they want a chance.
@daniel t never write off anyone.
I wonder if the lnp should consider bringing back the LC if they win. In the long run it’s good to have a govt that’s kept in check
Comments are closed.