Guest post from Ofir Thaler:
In predicting the winners in Israeli elections, especially in the last 15 years, it is nowhere near enough to just look at the top of the list of parties and see how the large parties are faring against each other. Israel’s system is based on proportional representation and has a low minimum of required votes to get into the Knesset (2%, just under three seats out of 120). Subsequently, every Knesset will generally have anywhere between 10-16 parties in it, all representing slightly (or wildly) different ideals and practical concerns. Just to make all of this more complicated, the political landscape is so volatile that minor, and sometimes even major, parties regularly merge, split or change direction based on both practical and ideological considerations. All of this means that the only (and I do mean only) way to make a government is by coalition, and coalitions these days are especially unstable (I won’t go into details and speculate about the reasons it has become even more unstable in the last 10-15 years).
This year, looking at the head of the recent polls (1/2/09) it looks like the right-wing Likud party, headed by former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyhau is set up to take a majority of the vote. His closest opponents are the Centre-right Kadima party headed by Foreign Minister Zippi Livnvi and the Labour Party, headed by another former Prime Minister, Ehud Barack (by the way, Barack beat Netanyahu the last time they squared up against each other). It is quite obvious that the next Prime Minister will be either Livni or Netanyahu. Labour has been dithering around the 16-17 seat mark for a while (as opposed to the 25-30 for Likud and Kadima). However, because of the need to set up a coalition, a majority for either one of the them does not necessarily mean that they we will be PM – they need a favourable mix of parties in order to be able to set up anything resembling a stable coalition.
Looking at the polls for the rest of the parties show quite clearly that the righ-wing and religious parties are obviously stronger, including one outstanding result: Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party has matured from a small russian immigrant party with 4 seats in the 1999 elections, into a neo-fascist behemoth looking at 16 seats and beating Labour for third party status in several polls.
Lieberman’s strong-man putin-like persona is secularist but vehemantly zionist and militaristic, and is attractive to a large section of the secular population, jaded by years of inaction and corruption in the major parties. He has called for principles of ‘strong government’, the transfer of lands on which Arab Israeli citizens live to the palestinian authority and strict allegiance tests for all citizens.
This result is a major roadblock for any prospective Kadima/Labour coalition because his 16 seats include a large secularist constituentcy, forcing them to work together (there is, in fact, no conceivable way that either of them can set up a coation without the other) and deal with several fickle and opportunistic religious parties. It is is possible that they will deal with Lieberman, but Labour has been badmouthing him recently and has even called out Kadima for not doing so enough, indication that they probably won’t (or he won’t deal with them).
In my opinion, the most likely coalition to lead Israel after the next election will be a right-wing neo-conservative coalition, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, with the Likud and Yisrael Beitenu at it’s core. They will probably deal with a couple of minor right-wing parties and a religious party or two. I see it as possibly being one of the more stable coalitions in the last few years.
Make of it what you will, it’s going to be an interesting few years.
“Benjamin Netanyhau is set up to take a majority of the vote.”
Just to be picky, do you mean plurality?
Yeah, I think he means plurality.
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