NSW Legislative Council primary vote complete

The NSW Electoral Commission has now finished counting votes for the Legislative Council count. That means we now have the final primary vote figures, and the “button” will be pushed at 11am tomorrow morning to distribute preferences and determine the result.

16 seats have been decided on primary votes, with another four reasonably clear. But the last race is close – closer than I had projected last weekend.

The first 20 seats split 8 Labor, 6 Coalition, 2 Greens and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

The remaining quotas are as follows:

• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – 0.686
• Liberal – 0.551
• Animal Justice – 0.482
• One Nation – 0.303
• Elizabeth Farrelly – 0.291
• Lyle Shelton – 0.278
• Sustainable Australia – 0.204
• Riccardo Bosi – 0.171
• Public Education – 0.165
• Informed Medical Options – 0.102
• Socialist Alliance – 0.081
• Labor – 0.055

The gap between the Liberal and Animal Justice is just 0.069 quotas, whereas I had expected the gap to be about 0.12 quotas. I thought that expected gap would probably be too much for the AJP to close, but I think this figure is much more achievable.

It’s worth noting that there are a lot less preferences to flow than in 2019. 17 seats were decided on first preferences in 2019, but no party polled more than 0.66 quotas as a partial quota. This year, however, four parties have polled more than 0.66 quotas of partial quotas. The Greens fell just short of a quota on 1.998 quotas, with Legalise Cannabis around 0.81 quotas, Liberal Democrats on 0.78 and the Shooters on 0.69.

In 2019, if you exclude votes for the parties who won and the Christian Democratic Party, who were the highest-polling loser, there were 2.278 quotas of preferences to distribute. That included 0.479 for the Liberal Democrats, who were ahead of the Animal Justice Party but eventually had their preferences distributed.

This year, there are only 1.699 quotas of preferences available to flow, since more votes are locked up with the parties in the lead.

Of those votes available, 0.75 quotas is on the right (One Nation, Shelton and Bosi), 0.80 quotas are on the left (Farrelly, Sustainable, Public Education, Socialist and Labor) and I haven’t classified 0.1 quota for Informed Medical Options, or 0.05 quota for the non-ATL candidates.

In contrast, in 2019, there was 1.16 quotas of preferences to flow from the left and 0.83 quotas on the right.

So the left’s preference pool has shrunk a lot more than the right’s pool, but Labor’s position will help Animal Justice.

The parties that are set to win a seat but are short of a quota will continue to receive preferences, but don’t really need them to win. This means there will be votes that could have helped in the Liberal vs AJP race for the final seat but will instead get locked in behind the Shooters, Liberal Democrats or Legalise Cannabis.

Labor absorbed quite a few preferences in 2019, some of which may have otherwise flowed to the AJP. This year, Labor will be knocked out early and won’t be able to gain preferences. While the Greens could soak up some of those preferences, they are on 0.998 quotas so should quickly reach quota and then cease absorbing preferences. It is worth noting that Legalise Cannabis will absorb some preferences that may have otherwise helped Animal Justice.

On the right, preferences will be absorbed by the Shooters and Liberal Democrats, but this was also true in 2019 when the Nationals and One Nation were in a similar position.

In 2019, Animal Justice picked up 0.17 quotas between the primary vote and the final count. The Nationals picked up 0.12 quotas, while the Christian Democratic Party gained just 0.06.

If the AJP and Liberal candidates each pick up as many preferences as they did in 2019, the Liberal would win by about 0.07 quotas.

Generally left wing voters have tended to mark more preferences and their preferences have flowed more strongly. The one big unknown is how strong those preferences will flow this year. We’ve seen a small amount of evidence from the Assembly counting that suggests an increase in marking preferences, but that could happen on either side.

Overall this looks like a very tight contest. After examining all this evidence, I think the Liberal is still more likely to win, but the AJP really are in the contest. If the AJP win, there will be a clear left-wing upper house majority between Labor, the Greens, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis. A Liberal win would produce a tie.

You’ll be able to watch the distribution of preferences live via the NSWEC website tomorrow morning. It usually takes about 15 minutes, most of which is taken up by the elimination of minor candidates. The exclusion of the lead candidates for the remaining parties take place quickly, and then we will quickly find out who has won the final seat.

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