There were a lot of parallels between the NSW result and last year’s federal election result. On a Labor vs Coalition basis, the result was decisive (although NSW Labor won the 2PP by quite a bit more than federal Labor). But this translated into a slim Labor majority, with a record crossbench.
Labor has won power with the lowest primary vote for a majority government in modern NSW history. This follows the trend of Labor governments at the federal level and in Victoria winning majorities with record-low primary votes.
NSW Labor did do better than in the federal election, and they will likely have a slightly more comfortable majority than their federal counterparts. Their 2PP is currently sitting at 54.3%, compared to 52% at the federal election.
The final Newspoll recorded an uptick in Labor support to 54.5% of the two-party-preferred, almost exactly in line with the actual result. The previous polls had Labor on 52-53%, and it now seems even more clear that this result would have produced a hung parliament.
At the moment there are 22 seats where an independent or minor party made the top two. This includes 13 seats where there is a chance they will win. Other ones of interest include Cessnock, where the disendorsed Nationals candidate dropped to fourth behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis. This is the second-highest number of non-classic races at a recent NSW election, ahead of 19 in 2019 and behind 27 in 2011 (when the Greens came second across the entire northern suburbs of Sydney without coming close to winning any).
So how do you reconcile a small Labor majority with a big 2PP majority? Part of the explanation is that there are five crossbenchers who look to have won seats where Labor would win the 2PP - Balmain, Ballina, Newtown, Sydney and Lake Macquarie. If you add these to Labor's seat count, they are leading in 54/93 seats. This is very similar to Bob Carr's two landslide victories in 1999 and 2003, when Labor won 55/93 seats with no crossbenchers elected in traditional Labor areas.
So what seats are still in play? I'm not going to analyse these races in depth right now. I might do that later in the week, but you can also check out Kevin Bonham's work on this front.
Labor has won 45 seats, and is leading in four others:
- Miranda - 0.3%
- Ryde - 0.6%
- Terrigal - 1.3%
- Kiama - 1.9%
Labor needs to pick up two more seats for a majority, but is also not far behind the Coalition in seven other seats:
- Goulburn - 0.3%
- Oatley - 0.4%
- Holsworthy - 0.8%
- Drummoyne - 1.8%
- Tweed - 1.9%
- Winston Hills - 2.1%
- Upper Hunter - 2.5%
I can't see the seats at the bottom of this list flipping to Labor but Goulburn, Oatley and Holsworthy will be worth watching.
Labor is also 2.2% behind the Greens in Balmain, and the Liberal Party leads independent Larissa Penn by 0.7% in Willoughby. There are two more seats where independents are leading Liberals: Pittwater (0.1%) and Wollondilly (1.7%).
That adds up to fifteen seats, although I think the list of close seats will shrink quickly over the next day or two as people analyse what votes are left to come.
Labor has gained seven other seats already:
- Camden
- East Hills
- Monaro
- Parramatta
- Penrith
- Riverstone
- South Coast
Plus independent Michael Regan has won in Wakehurst.
If you compare these results to the pendulum, you see that the things have been very inconsistent. I have produced a map below which shows the two-candidate-preferred swings in each seat (although in seven seats we can't compare the 2CP to the last election - five independents plus Port Macquarie and Summer Hill). You can toggle it to see who is currently leading in each seat, and to see which seats are currently on track to change hands (highlighted in brighter colour).
Labor managed to narrowly win some seats on slim margins like East Hills and Penrith and went backwards in Upper Hunter. They also failed to pick up Tweed and are currently behind in Goulburn.
Meanwhile they gained bigger swings in Riverstone, Parramatta and Ryde where sitting Liberals retired. There's a contrast between Parramatta and neighbouring Winston Hills, where the swing was very small and Labor currently looks set to miss out. Labor also won Camden and came close in Oatley.
And then we had some huge swings in surprising seats like South Coast, Monaro, Miranda and Terrigal.
I also noticed that the Coalition has been hit particularly hard in south-eastern NSW. Labor already gained Bega in 2022, and have now gained Monaro, South Coast and Heathcote and are leading in Kiama.
For my next post I'll be analysing the Legislative Council voting trends - I'll be hoping that before the end of today but it'll be quite a bit of work.
Natalie Mort of the “pool party” that has several members on the local council pulled votes away from the Libs but it’s good to see the AHA has one of their staffers so close to power – not sure many voters realised the ALP candidate is employed by AHA!
Seat of Oatley
Interested to see the impact prepoll has on the results. 28 percent voted early. It was up from 2019 (21%). Would be good to see some system where these can be counted earlier.
Ben,
When you get a moment,I would be interested in your views as to whether the electoral pendulum still has any value when:-
1.The usual first preference vote for the majors has dipped into the thirties
2.The existence of more and more independents with more than 10% of the vote
3.Optional preferences.
“Their 2PP is currently sitting at 54.3%, compared to 52% at the federal election.” Labor 2PP in NSW at the federal election was 51.42%, not 52%.
I wasn’t comparing it to the federal vote in NSW, I was comparing it to the whole country.
Interestingly, the Liberals scored big 2PP swings of at least 6% (at present count) in Liverpool and Cabramatta. I know that Liverpool and Cabramatta are vacant seats but it’s worth looking into why this happened.
When you look at the PVs, there were swings to the Liberals, swings away from Labor and most surprising were the swings to independents (who I’ve never heard of, apart from Kate Hoang) and micro and minor parties. In Cabramatta, LDP got 10% and AJP got 5%.
The swing away from Labor is perhaps because of vote-splitting and exhaustion of votes. I also sense the Dai Le effect where voters have turned on Labor and have turned to micro/minor parties and independents and to a lesser extent to the Liberals. It could also be the residual anger from the parachuting of Kristina Keneally. Anti-vax/anti-lockdown anger probably drove voters away from Labor who “were not there for them” during the lockdowns. This factor wasn’t evident in Bankstown/Auburn as Labor got swings to them.
Fairfield saw a 2PP swing to Labor but the Labor and Liberals’ PVs dropped, whilst independents picked up PVs.
Yes from Shellharbour to Bega the Liberal party is in ICU with serious new Ward virus. It is not insignificant that Liberal candidate in South Coast was former Ward staffer and Ward’s hand pick. Incidentally when you factor in informal votes everybody looks worse. My favourite informal was two balls and an engorged penis in (& out) of Gareth Ward’s box with word written “top cunt” next to it. At first Ward’s scrutineer thought it might be formal “it’s unclear if he is praising or criticising Ward”. However closer examination revealed that the mark in the box was clearly not a one, a tick or a cross.
Great site and good analysis. Self confessed election / politics junkie come tragic. Some questions:
(1) Is optional preferential to abolish? (created under Wran to bother coalition but now burden for Labor too)
(2) Is this a tale of Labor revival being mixed bag – small shifts in key seats and big uplifts elsewhere
(3) Would a less scandal hit coalition (Glads, NY Agent General etc) have pulled it off
(4) Is Minns safe from “leadership” change mid term
well if aha is so bad itsgood that david elliot was forced out and toby williams lost wakehurst to independent then
Sabena, I do think the pendulum still has value as long as you understand it doesn’t apply as all on one dimension. The pendulum told us that the swing Labor needed to pick up the nine seats was about 6.3%. Right now Labor is on track to pick up eleven seats, with a swing of 6.3%. Seems like a pretty good guide. Of course it’s far less useful for seats involving independents, but it can still have value. Imagine if the Greens had say 8 seats, there’s value in having a ranking of those 8 seats to see which are most vulnerable to flipping.
Noel, abolishing OPV would require a referendum. I don’t see it happening. I did a Twitter thread explaining the historical background to this clause here.
Thanks Ben … understood … just viewing this from afar (UK) where rules of the game are being tested by parties concerned about voter behaviour, fake news and volatile major party shifts in allegiance (e.g. SNP may crash regardless of whomever replaces NS … with Cons, Libs and Lab all to gain)
Discussions internally with the Liberal Leadership has already started, with the very public announcement that Matt Kean will not stand for Liberal Leadership.
Early suggestions are that it will be Mark Speakman (Cronulla) vs Anthony Roberts (Lane Cove).
One question I do have is that, if this parliament ends in minority, who takes the speakership. The Deputy Speaker was Leslie Williams (this won’t be happening), while the Assistant Speaker was Greg Piper. There is precedent for an Independent Speaker, especially given that Richard Torbay was the speaker in the last Labor Government.
If this parliament ends in minority (which now looks very likely), what are the chances of Greg Piper becoming Speaker? If not, who would take it, either from Labor or the Crossbench
The next Opposition Leader could be just an electoral seat warmer who won’t become the Premier. In fact, he may not even be the leader at the 2027 election, but he has the arduous task of reforming the party and doing soul-searching. Kean may just wait in the wings.
I read rumours that Perrottet would leave state politics this term. I also read rumours that Kean had plans to run for a federal seat.
@votante – I can’t see where kean goes, unless he rolls Leeser or Fletcher for pre-selection.
There is a possibility that Perrottet could move to federal and, given the situation with Alex Hawke, Mitchell could be the seat he claims.
@Hawkeye_au He could also just get parachuted into either North Sydney or Mackellar. I doubt Warringah would be an option since Zali Stegall would be difficult to dislodge with her strong incumbency advantage.
Depending on the political situation in late 2024 or 2025, Matt Kean could get parachuted into a teal seat to turn the teal tide, or a marginal Labor seat like Bennelong. If he does, he runs the risk of looking desperate and/or becoming another Andrew Constance – leaving a state seat to run for a federal seat and then losing.
North sydney or Bennelong are reasonable options for Kean. I think he lives in Pennant Hills (correct me if I am wrong) so both those seats are reasonable options.
I don’t think he will run in Mackellar or Warringah. That might be a bit of a stretch. For warringah, they will want to run someone like Geoegia Ryburn from NBC to take on Zali. But then, the Warringah FEC love making stupid decisions.
What if NBC? When I think of NBC I think of NBC news.
Kean would be a better fit in Mackeller, or Bradfield (His seat that covers Hornsby) when Fletcher retires.
Bennelong is risky as a marginal seat. Same with the former premier, he should run in Mitchell. And Mike Baird could run against Zali if he wishes.
I don’t think Fletcher wants to retire,although as a Cconservative voter,that’s what I want him to do.
I think if Kean were selected for Bradfield, he could be defeated.Perrotet would be a much better choice if he wants to go into federal politics.
Daniel, nbc would be northern beaches council, the local government area covering warringah district.
NBC – Northern Beaches Council.
Trust me Daniel. The Northern Beaches is not a fan of blow-in’s. I only need to mention the name Paul Nicolau and it brings back nightmares for the Liberal Members of Pittwater.
Besides, in terms of geography, Bennelong would make more sense, while North Sydney would suit him in a more demographic sense.
@Sabena, I don’t see Fletcher standing aside any time soon. Perrottet would more likely make a move on Mitchell and, given the recent trending with branches around there, I think he beats Alex Hawke.
I could see Perrottet running for Mitchell but all the other suggestions, not really. The idea of Kean in the Northern Beaches is hilarious but it wouldn’t work. They’re very parochial up there. I don’t think any high profile Liberal politician would want to run for Bennelong – I think it’s going to be a classic swing seat that goes with government and lots of marginal seat campaigning involved. Matt Kean in North Sydney would be fun but I think Kylea Tink would use the “you’re not from around here” thing against him and win comfortably.
@SP
I think it is a good idea to wait until the NSW state redistribution is finalised. The consensus is that the North Shore and Northern Beaches (quite under quota collectively) will get mangled up quite a lot.
Dominic Perrottet would easily fit in with Mitchell. Even if it moves significantly, he would work out fine anywhere in The Hills/Hornsby LGA other than the Hornsby-Cowan strip).
Matt Kean would be harder to tell though because of the upcoming redistribution. He lives in Pennant Hills (?) but he should take a Teal seat. Maybe @Hawkeye is right about North Sydney’s demographics but @SP is also right about being an outsider. Warringah and Mackellar is a bad idea. Bradfield might be okay, especially if Berowra is abolished and make Bradfield take the entirety of the strip from Hornsby to Brooklyn (which have a decent Green vote). Someone mentioned in Hornsby 2023 that the less urban parts of his current state seat of Hornsby resembles Ryan (and I assume they meant the strip in question because Dural area votes no different to the Hills Shire).
It may force Fletcher into North Sydney (Wiki page says he lives close to the North Sydney-Bradfield border) or straight up give up. TBH not my problem.
Surprised if Paul Fletcher would leave the seat – he had an excellent pre Parliament career and is a long time asset for the centrist tribe within the Liberals. I may be biased as he is my local MP and an old mate. But the blues need to keep him and Leeser at the forefront. Bradfield would not like to have someone “dropped” on them in these times.
Question for everyone here: have the last 2 elections confirmed where the new norm is now for NSW, following 2011?
I think we have seen confirmation of some re-alignment occuring, especially as the battle ground for election results continue to shift further west.
IMO, this result is largely a reversal from 2019 and what we have now is a larger pool of marginal seats going forward.
Hawkeye, the results do solidify the fact that Western Sydney as a whole is no longer solid ground for Labor, but more swing territory. If the Liberals do remain a strong force in opposition, they can easily win back seats like Penrith, East Hills, Camden and potentially Riverstone. Parramatta and Leppington would be harder reaches due to their margins being >5%.
In terms of regional seats, the Coalition can try to reclaim Monaro and South Coast as the two easiest pickup opportunities.
Re all the comments above about Kean into North Sydney.
On the current boundaries (which will change at least a bit post NSW redistribution of federal seats) North Sydney is on about a 1% 2PP margin and a believe Kylea Tink’s primary vote will be under pressure from both ends in 2025 so ti may come down to a 2PP contest. There’s also strong rumours she’s fallen out with many Climate200 people so it remains to be seen what the starting line up is for the next federal election.
I wouldn’t want to be the Liberal that loses the seat to Labor for the time in 124 years (i.e. ever).
Yoh An,
you’ve put Camden in the wrong bucket above – its also now a seat on above 5% margin and I expect a strong sophomore effect in that seat.
Due to significant population movement (new house estates and family formation . breakups) seats like Leppington, Camden and Riverstone have some real above average volatility that any first term MP would fear. Not safe for any side imho. Libs could rebound in these two very easily with the correct candidate and narratives.
“Hawkeye, the results do solidify the fact that Western Sydney as a whole is no longer solid ground for Labor, but more swing territory.”
‘Western Sydney’ is a lot of territory. Let’s do a seat analysis:
Safe ALP (>5%): Auburn, Blacktown, Cabramatta, Camden (recently won), Campbelltown, Fairfield, Granville, Londonderry, Mount Druitt, Parramatta (recently won), Prospect, Leppington, Riverstone (recently won)
Marginal ALP (<5%): East Hills, Penrith
Marginal Liberal (5%): Badgery’s Creek, Hawkesbury, Kellyville
So that’s Safe ALP 13, Marginal ALP 2, Marginal Liberal 2, Safe Liberal 3. Doesn’t look very swing area-ish to me. But let’s throw the three safe seats won by the ALP from the Liberals this election into marginal because they were won with big swings and were recently Liberal. That leaves the ALP with ten safe seats, the Liberals with three and they’re fighting over seven battleground seats. If we were in a 50-50 2PP environment, it would be likely ALP 13 Liberals 7.
I agree the Liberals are a lot more competitive here than 20 years ago – if we were to look at the 2003 election result, it was 18-2 ALP with no marginal seats whatsoever. However, I think ‘Western Sydney’ as a whole is still solidly ALP leaning.
For electoral trends that haven’t been discussed to death, how about regional southeast NSW becoming a key swing area in this election? South Coast was only an ALP seat for one term during the ALP 1995-2011 era and Bega was a Liberal seat for that entire time. Now the ALP likely don’t form government this election without winning those two seats and Monaro. This area is slowly trending ALP at the federal level too with Eden-Monaro no longer being a strict bellwether seat and the ALP now winning Gilmore over multiple elections.
I think you have to include Winston Hills as marginal Liberal and Castle Hill as a safe Liberal seat if you’re including Kellyville in Western Sydney. And on the Labor side, there would need to be Liverpool, Macquarie Fields. Holsworthy also has a fair portion of Liverpool council (and that area swinging to the Liberals hard, against the trend elsewhere seems to have saved them there).
But yes, on the whole the region still leans Labor albeit with more battleground territory in recent years.
@SP, Monaro is definitely a bellwether. Antony Green said that it has gone with the Government almost all the time. A bit off topic – with urbanisation in the Queanbeyan area, it might be time a Liberal, and not a National, runs in Monaro. I count the south-east region (Monaro, Goulburn, Bega, South Coast) as a bellwether but it could change depending on the redistribution.
I also count the southern-half of the Central Coast (Gosford, Terrigal) as a bellwether. The federal seat of Robertson has gone with the government since 1983.
Heathcote, East Hills, Camden and Riverstone have gone with the government since 1995 but I wouldn’t call them bellwethers just yet. They may just be pre-2011 Labor heartland seats that have “gone home” in 2023.
Sorry my Western Sydney seat count was incomplete. It should be:
Safe ALP (>5%): Auburn, Blacktown, Cabramatta, Camden (recently won), Campbelltown, Fairfield, Granville, Londonderry, Mount Druitt, Parramatta (recently won), Prospect, Leppington, Riverstone (recently won)
Marginal ALP (<5%): East Hills, Penrith
Marginal Liberal (5%): Badgery’s Creek, Hawkesbury, Kellyville
SP, I would define safe seats as those with >10% margin. Seats with margins 5-10% can still be in play, which is why I would consider Camden, Parramatta, Riverstone and Leppington as potentially competitive under the right circumstances depending on candidates and the overall political environment. Prospect should be safe but current MP Hugh McDermott is considered relatively weak and has been criticised for undertaking some aspects of branch stacking.
For some reason, my seat list is not showing correctly. Third time lucky I hope!
Safe ALP (>5%): Auburn, Blacktown, Cabramatta, Camden (recently won), Campbelltown, Fairfield, Granville, Londonderry, Mount Druitt, Parramatta (recently won), Prospect, Leppington, Riverstone (recently won)
Marginal ALP (<5%): East Hills, Penrith
Marginal Liberal (5%): Badgery’s Creek, Hawkesbury, Kellyville
My main point about ‘Western Sydney’ is that it’s a very big area to generalise about and we talk about the other parts of Sydney in more discrete sections. We should probably talk about more ‘Western Sydney’ in a more localised fashion. But if we *do* generalise about it, it’s still a pretty solid ALP area. We can also argue about definitions – we can debate that Holsworthy and East Hills have Liberal leaning parts which are really in ‘southern Sydney’ (Menai is definitely not a part of ‘Western Sydney’) and we can debate whether Kellyville counts as north or west. There are bits of the Hawkesbury that don’t fit in with the rest of ‘Western Sydney’. If we subtract those parts, I think ‘Western Sydney looks even more solid for the ALP.
re: Prospect, no matter how weak the ALP MP is – the Liberals have never looked like winning it. Same with Cabramatta and Liverpool. They’re all ALP heartland until proven otherwise.
Sorry, my seat list is not displaying correctly despite my best efforts. Marginal Liberal has Winston Hills and Holsworthy and Safe Liberal has Badgery’s Creek, Hawkesbury and Kellyville. I hope this post comes through properly.
@SP, Votante: Monaro was a Liberal/Labor seat with Steve Mauger (Liberal), John Akister (Labor) until narrow national v liberal (Cochrane) win in 1988 land slide. Nationals have used that win to rule liberals out for over 30 years. Hopefully there will be a three sided contest next time & liberals will get the balls to tell the nationals so?.
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