Polls have just opened for election day in New South Wales. I won’t be regularly updating today but I wanted to give an update on the early voting stats. There’ll be an open thread posted at 6pm, but tonight I will be analysing the results on ABC Radio (local radio in NSW and News Radio nationally) – so check that out!
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Before we go, we now have the final data on the number of pre-poll votes cast, as well as some sense of the number of postal votes returned so far and the total number of postal vote applications. The data suggests that the share of early voters has climbed from 26% of enrolment in 2019 to 30-38% in 2023, despite the demise of iVote.
We don’t yet know how many votes will be cast, so we can only analyse the data as a share of total enrolment.
We know that 28.4% of all voters have cast a pre-poll vote. This is up from 19.4% in 2019, despite the reduction of voting to just one week. We don’t yet know the total number of postal votes. What we do know is the number returned as of Friday, and the total number of applications. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to find data on the number of applications in the past, so I can only compare it to the actual numbers of postal votes in past elections.
And finally, there was previously a share of the vote cast via the internet using iVote, but that platform is no longer available.
The pre-poll increase is quite significant. It also looks like the number of postal votes will go up after previously hitting a peak in 2007 and 2011 and then gradually declining.
And then if we add all these categories together to a single figure, you can see that the early vote looks set to increase from a quarter of all enrolled voters to about a third, depending on how many postal votes are returned.
The NSWEC has now published information about which electorates will have postal votes counted on the night, and which pre-poll centres will be counted. They do not have the capacity to count them all, so they are focusing on seats with the greatest potential to be decisive. They are prioritising 35 seats for postal voting.
If you find this interesting, you should also check out Antony Green's blog post on this topic, which includes stats for each seat.
“Demise of Iview”, Ben? It’s still going strong! But your fingers are obviously just as used to typing it as Ivote.
Lol judging by the numerous episodes of Bluey we watched this morning I think you’re right.
Thanks, I’ll fix.
I noticed that prepoll this election was open last Saturday and on Thursday night till 8pm. I wonder with the opening of prepoll outside business hours has helped increase the percentage.
What were prepoll hours like in the past?
Late voting on Thursdays has been around for a while. Overall, though, the number of days for voting has been cut.
A bit off topic, but when I went to vote today the polling clerk demanded proof of ID. When I declined I was told to go home and bring it back so I could vote. Upon pointing out that was illegal I was passed to the head official who agreed I didn’t need it and I got my voting form. But the original official then asked the person after me for their ID as I was leaving. The usher at the door also told people to get their photo IDs ready. I’m wondering if this was just a local quirk and the polling station was being staffed by people seconded from the US republican party or it is becoming more widespread? The comments the original polling official said to me were all straight out of the GOP rulebook.
I was wondering how common the exerience
Keep up the good work Ben!
The wording from NSWEC site reads as follows: “You don’t need to show identification. However, it can be helpful to have something available if your name is difficult to pronounce or spell.”
In other words, it cannot be demanded and/or your request to vote denied on such grounds. There may be grounds for a polite request as a means of “clarification” ….. and most reasonable people would accede to such a request.
Therefore, said official is well out of line. IF it were the case that said official was party to the conversation between yourself and the head official of the polling place yet continued to demand ID, then they should be removed immediately from said duty and, indeed, probably relieved of all duty and asked to leave the polling place.
I always provide Id when I go to the polling booth. While I have an Anglo name it makes it easier
Like the overwhelming majority of “in person” voters; I will have at least one form of ID on my person when I go to vote and would take no issue with a reasonable request to provide it; ie clarification of my name or other details.
Where this official is well out of line is “demanding” a voter provide ID and refusing to allow them to proceed with voting unless they do so. They are breaking the law by doing so. There would appear to be a failure in their training and/or vetting for their role.
To clarify, the polling clerk did not ask for ID to clarify my name. I was told I needed to show ID in order to be able to vote. I know that is illegal and that’s what I said to the manager. I should also add that I heard other polling officials making the same request, including the very anglo 20-something who was at the door telling everyone to have their ID ready.
I have in the past shown ID when the person has a limited grasp of English and.or understanding of anglo names, but whilst this person was not of English heritage, they had an obvious Aussie accent and I suspect they were born here. Given the context I decided to make an issue of it at the polling booth.
Anyway, I’d be curious to know if anyone else ran into this sort of thing.
You need to report this to the NSWEC. That actually sounds pretty nefarious.
I’ve had to report stuff in the past, but in my case it was the well-meaning but confused old lady in the prepoll booth giving incorrect instructions to everyone because she clearly did not entirely understand preferential voting… Apparently there were numerous cases of it (first election after GTV was abolished federally).
Whereas yours sounds pretty nasty.
Hi there, I worked at Early Voting last week and I can confirm ID is NOT required and as you guys have noted above, some people provided their ID when they thought their name was hard to spell etc… this was helpful at Early Voting as Elector details are looked up and maked off on an electronic roll.
As others have suggested, please let someone at the Electoral Commission know as what you have described is unacceptable.
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