Today I’m looking into the seats of interest in regional New South Wales that aren’t just a simple Labor vs Coalition contest.
I’ve identified seven seats involving independents, Greens and a Liberal-National contest.
Let’s start with the three seats won by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers in 2019. All three members are now independents.
Barwon (SFF 3.5%) is the largest seat in the state, stretching from Broken Hill to Narrabri. Roy Butler won the seat in 2019 and will be seeking to bed down his support, now as an independent.
The seat of Murray (SFF 3.5%) covers the south-western corner of New South Wales, and was won in 2019 by Helen Dalton, who had run for the seat as an independent in 2015 and 2017. Dalton has been facing a strong campaign from Clubs NSW over her support of cashless gaming reforms, and this seat will be a test of that campaign.
Orange (SFF 15.2%) was won by Phil Donato in 2016, and he appears to be more solid than his two former colleagues. But he has yet to face the voters as an independent. Perhaps he will be more popular without a party label, but that loss of organisational support could still hurt.
Kiama (LIB 12.0%) is quite possibly the most interesting race in the state. Local member Gareth Ward was suspended from the Liberal Party and eventually suspended from parliament while he faces criminal charges. The local Liberals resisted finding their own candidate, until eventually the job was given to Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, who had lost preselection for her previous seat. The big question is how much of the existing Liberal vote goes to Ward, or stays with the Liberals (and how much of it swings to Labor). Liberal voters aren’t known for marking preferences, and the Liberal Party hasn’t directed preferences to Ward. If Ward is as popular as some commentators claim, he’ll still need preferences and I doubt he can get them.
Port Macquarie (NAT 20.1%) was a traditional Nationals seat until local member Rob Oakeshott left the party in 2002. Leslie Williams won the seat back for the Nats in 2011, but in the last term she switched to the Liberal Party. Williams is recontesting the seat as a Liberal, and understandably her former party isn’t letting that slide by also contesting. After there being no Liberal-Nationals contests in the state since 1999, we have two this year (the other in the independent seat of Wagga Wagga). It will be interesting to see how the conservative vote splits, but also how progressive voters direct their preferences.
South Coast (LIB 10.6%) could just be a conventional classic seat – a bit of a reach for Labor but potentially in play. But it has the added element of a strong Greens candidate who has been twice elected as the local mayor (admittedly without a majority of the vote in the face of divided right-wing opposition). The Greens campaign could be a flop, but it’s worth keeping an eye on whether the Greens can get in front of Labor. There’s the potential that Labor and Greens could poll more between them than the Liberals but lose thanks to exhausted votes.
Finally, Lismore (ALP 1.8%) is another seat which is close in classic terms but also has a non-classic element. Labor narrowly won in 2019, but they also narrowly defeated the Greens. The Greens had come second in 2015, but in 2019 Labor outpolled the Greens by 1.3% on primary votes and 0.8% at the key point in the distribution of preferences.
Labor preferences flow much more weakly to the Greens than vice versa, so the Greens actually lost the 2CP against the Nationals. The redistribution brought the Greens much closer to second (narrowing the primary vote gap from 1.3% to 0.4%) and that probably means Labor would have been knocked out on the new boundaries and the Nationals would have won.
There’s been a lot of overconfident comments about this seat – Janelle Saffin apparently will increase her margin and be re-elected easily. That may be true, but we’ll see. People have also been confident that Greens coming second means they would lose. But it’s possible Labor’s preference flows could improve, or a general swing to the left could push the Greens 2CP up high enough to win despite the less favourable flow. Whatever happens, it’s worth watching.
Thank you Ben. A few interesting ones to watch. I cannot pick Kiama. So many variables. I generally share your view that the incumbent will struggle but not sure what level of PV he needs to be competitive. I’m thinking it has to be close to 45 percent. The Greens on the booths are pushing the preferencing recommendation of ALP number 2. Barwon and Murray also ones to watch. I think South Coast a push but note that it’s on the key seat list for the liberals
i agree on kiama this will be an interesting one. youve got a 3 cornered contest it will depend on who finishes 1st 2nd and 3rd. and it will depend on three things. 1 how much primary gareth ward and liberals poll. 2. where the preferences fall if anywhere. 3. the swing to labor if any in this seat as in previous elections gareth ward has increased his margin against the swing statewide. if hes able to convert some labor voters again labor is done in my opinion i dont think they can win with such a low vote even with green preferences
I put Kiama as a likely three-cornered contest and to some extent, South Coast as well. Lismore is also a three-cornered contest but I’m tipping Labor holds.
I am quite curious about Ben’s description of the Lismore comments as “overconfident”. Does Ben believe there to be a case for either the Nationals or the Greens to benefit in Lismore? I have asked on the same page and didn’t receive much of a case for either of them to get a swing towards them.
I also think you are pver-confident about the Nationals chance in Dubbo despite winning very narrowly at the last election.
Why would he increase his primary vote in an election where the government is likely to take a hit?
Don’t rule out an independent win.
Daniel T, difficult for an independent to win in Dubbo when there isn’t one running!
Daniel T, the independent candidate from 2019 is not running this election. Heck, there isn’t even an independent running this election. Without a clear threat from the other candidates the Nationals easily retain the seat.
I’m not predicting anything about Lismore. I’m just saying it’s a super-marginal seat on two fronts and maybe we could wait to see some votes before declaring Saffin’s victory.
@daniel T nationals rarely suffer the same swings as liberals and even more so in regional areas as they almost never vote labor except for when the demographic changes and people from the labor voting cities move to the regions. usually the best chance in these areas are independants. Labor no chance in Dubbo. Liberals have a better chance of taking Balmain
I don’t recall anyone declaring victory for Saffin. But the comments merely reflect an expectation of a swing towards her, which correspondingly means a likely retain. If there’s someone who can mount a case against that, I would love to hear it, but to this point no one has done so.
I myself can think of one possible theory – that the Federal coalition swing in the seat of Page is not due to the incumbent being a National in a disaster-stricken seat, but of the area growing stronger for the Nationals. However, I have no evidence for this while there exists lots of evidence for “disaster-stricken constituencies swing towards incumbents” so I’m inclined to believe the latter. But if there’s anyone who can back the former up I’d be interested.
I can think of 2 things Adda, but neither is likely. 1) There is some issue up there that is floating under the surface but would see enough Labor – Nats or Labor – Greens voters to swing the election. 2) It has been mentioned there is a lower Labor-Greens preference flow here than you might expect. Maybe the Labor voters in the area are a lot less Greens positive and are prepared to move if Labor are seen as too close to the Greens?
But generally, I think you are right, I see no reason apart from being a 3 way marginal that people are talking about Labor not winning. Unless Labor have a really bad night.
Donato has won Orange at a canter. I am a bit surprised as his presence in the south of the electorate during the campaign was very low key, seemingly limited to one lunchtime bbq in a park, no leaflets in the mail etc. But he clearly knows more about campaigning than I do as at the High School booth he got more than 50% of the vote (including Informal).
The Nats put a fair bit of effort onto trying to wrest the their former safe seat back (we even got a flyer in the mail) but to no avail.
Augurs well for Gee in Calare at the next Federal election.
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