Today I’m going through the Labor-Coalition contests that are of most interest in regional New South Wales. Tomorrow I will be back to look at the other races of interest in regional NSW.
I’ve identified five seats of interest for this post.
First up, Upper Hunter (NAT 0.6%) is the second-most marginal Coalition seat in the state. The Nationals did increase their margin at a 2021 by-election, but circumstances have changed a bit since then. Firstly, the margin has been cut by 2% (the 2019 result was actually a 2.6% margin), and secondly the political context has changed since 2019, with Gladys Berejiklian and Jodi McKay both leaving politics since.
Goulburn (LIB 3.1%) has not been won by Labor for over half a century, but it does have a slim margin. It could fall, but there are reasons to think Labor might have more trouble flipping this seat than other seats on greater margins. The sitting Liberal member Wendy Tuckerman is only in her first term, so will likely have a personal vote that may help her withstand a pro-Labor swing, and the 2019 Labor candidate Ursula Stephens did particularly well in the Goulburn area that may be hard to improve on.
The seat of Tweed (NAT 5.0%) abuts the Queensland border, with a majority of the seat’s population living in areas that are effectively suburbs of the Gold Coast. The 5% margin seems very competitive, but we haven’t heard much about this race.
The seat of Myall Lakes (NAT 9.2%) was held by Stephen Bromhead until his death last week, but Bromhead had already announced his retirement. The seat seems likely to stay in Nationals hands but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Finally we can’t avoid mentioning Monaro (NAT 11.6%). This seat was held by former deputy premier John Barilaro until his resignation in 2021. The Nationals’ Nichole Overall did win the subsequent by-election after a modest swing and appears to be the favourite at the moment, but it could be in play. The margin is significantly more than the expected statewide swing, but the ALP also had local issues with candidates, with original candidate Terry Campese withdrawing. Former local member Steve Whan is now running for Labor. While he’s a strong candidate, it will be a difficult race.
Goulburn (LIB 3.1%) has never been won by Labor,
Wrong
Labor held the seat 1935-65 and at other times before the era of proportional representation.
Goulburn was won by Labor in 1891, the first election contested by a Labor Party.
Tweed and Monaro are an interesting two. They are both seats that would easily be won by Labor based on 2022 Federal Election results, yet it doesn’t seem like they are likely to fall based on the commentary this time around. It would be interesting to see what local factors are causing these anomalies. If Labor does particularly well, these would be the two regional seats I expect Labor to pick up.
Ben, would Bega and South Coast fall into this category? Two other areas which would see Labor win if Federal results were replicated. It would surprise me if Bega was not won by Labor, South Coast seems to be more of a stretch though.
In the seat of Tweed, if Labor (and the Greens) could replicate the vote that they achieved in the last federal election for Richmond they would easily flip this seat. However, Geoff Provest has managed to distance himself from Morrison’s stuff up when he neglected to declare Tweed as a disaster area after the big floods in February last year. That caused the Nat. vote to collapse, and for them to come last in a three cornered contest between Labor and the Greens. This time Provest has the benefits of incumbency, being higher on the ballot, and he has the conservative side of the field to himself. Labor’s Craig Elliot, whereas, has to contend with the Greens, AJP, Sustainable and Legalise Cannabis who will split and exhaust much of their vote. In particular Sus. and LC who will not be handing out. The optional preferential voting system has allowed Provest to hold this seat since 2007 and it probably will again this time.
@graham that vote in richmond is centred of the eartern fringe of lismore and northern half of ballina far beyond the borders of tweed atm tweed will probably go green after the next redistribution but that will flip lismore and ballina back to nats as they will expand west or south as well taking in national territory. 2 for 1 is a good deal in my opinion
Ah yes you’re correct Rodney, I meant in recent decades.
“that vote in richmond is centred of the eartern fringe of lismore and northern half of ballina”
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The most “Green friendly” areas of Richmond are the entirety of the Ballina electorate plus parts of the Lismore electorate. Tweed is far more conservative than the areas immediately south of it. Tweed is far closer both physically and ideologically to the Gold Coast which it merges into. I’d say you will get a better indication of what might happen in Tweed by checking out Queensland state politics, such as the electorate of Currumbin just over the border, than you will looking south to either Ballina or Lismore.
Further, the pretty dramatic changes that happened in Richmond at the fed were due to the Greens’ candidate Mandy Nolan picking up a big swing of almost +5%. On the other hand, Labor suffered a negative -3% swing against them, while the Nats copped an absolute hammering with a monster -13.51% against them. Most of that vote from the Nats split between the 7 far-right independents and minors that contested the seat.
The Greens actually out-polled the Nats in Richmond and finished second on primary with less than 4% separating them and Labor. Preferences from the Nats and from the 7 far-right candidates then allowed Labor to retain. In previous elections, Greens preferences have given the seat to Labor over the Nats, but this time it’s actually the Nats and co who helped Labor hang on against the Greens. Really fascinating seat.
The huge drop in the Nats primary is probably the most relevant to Tweed, as the Tweed area is the strongest Nats area in Richmond. However, a lot of those far-right micros were running hard on anti-vax and anti-lockdown platforms, which was an especially big issue here being the seat containing the main NSW/QLD border crossing. I’m not sure that it will be such a hot topic anymore and there aren’t 7 far-right candidates contesting Tweed, either. One Nation, UAP, and the Lib Dems are all missing, all of which contested Richmond. The Lib Dems did especially well at the Nats expense. So I don’t think the Nats will suffer the same massive loss of primary that they did in Richmond.
Checking out Currumbin, the LNP’s Laura Gerber suffered a big −7.45% swing against her in 2020, but again the seat was contested by the likes of One Nation and the UAP who picked up that vote from the LNP. 2020 was a very different year to say the very least, so I’m not sure we can read too much into those results either. The LNP just barely held onto the seat though (50.52% TPP) so it does point to a bit of trouble in paradise… shame we’re not talking about Surfer’s Paradise a little further north or that would have been a great pun hehe.
TLDR; Tweed is quite different to Ballina and Lismore.
While the prevailing view is for a Labor government (whether minority or majority), I find that seat based odds currently on Sportsbet points to a one point majority for the Coalition. Of course the seats won’t fall as the money predicts, but for a Labor supporter like me it’s sobering:
ALP favoured in 41 seats;
Coalition favoured in 42 seats;
Greens in 3 seats;
Independents in 7 seats: Lake Macquarie, Sydney, Barwon, Kiama, Murray, Orange and Wagga.
My assumption if this did come to pass, the Coalition could well retain government by a single seat: 42 plus Barwon, Kiama, Murray, Orange and Wagga.
A problem for the ALP is that three seats of four seats in which the 42 coalition-favoured seats could be reduced, the threat comes from tealish Independents (Pittwater, Wakehurst and Willoughby) which may not help Labor form government if any get up.
Anyway … bloody interesting election … with I think more variables/uncertainty than most.
Neil, I don’t think the western independents (ex-SFF) are tremendously likely to support a Coalition government. The SFF themselves have long occupied a curious political position of being right-wing yet extremely antagonistic to the Liberals and especially Nationals, and these now-Independents have had enough of their own individual frictions with the government that I expect this animosity to carry on even without the party banner.
On the flip side, Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich have built up a strong working relationship with the Coalition government so I don’t think their support of a Labor minority is a given or even necessarily more likely on balance. On both the right and the left, simplistic assessments of right and left are not very reliable measures for this crossbench, I think.
Firefox, actually slightly off there with Nats preferences helping Labor win Richmond.
On the two-party-preferred count, the Nats actually jumped the Greens, and Nats preferences were not distributed. Instead, the Greens’ prefs were distributed (mostly to Labor) and the right-wing candidates’ preferences were distributed (mostly to the Nationals). That’s why we ended up with a 2PP count of Labor vs Nats, even though Nats finished third on primaries.
It’s like what happened in Brisbane – while the Greens finished third on primaries, preferences pushed them into the top two and then they won the 2PP. In Richmond, the Nats finished third on primaries, but preferences pushed them into the top two and they went on to lose the 2PP. So, Nats preferences were not distributed to Labor in Richmond – you can visit the AEC page for Richmond for more information on the preference distribution, too.
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