In today’s blog post I’m going through the races that could prove to be interesting in Sydney but aren’t a Labor vs Liberal race.
There’s a lot more uncertainty with these sort of races, particularly when it comes to the independents. There’s a large number of independents running, mostly in northern Sydney, who could be a credible challenge. But most of them probably won’t end up coming close. I’ve decided to take a wide approach, covering eight independent threats in Liberal seats, along with one Greens seat.
Let’s start with Balmain (GRN 10.0%), where sitting MP Jamie Parker is retiring. Parker was the second ever Greens member elected in a general election single-member contest at the 2011 election, following on from Adam Bandt who won his seat at the 2010 federal election. No candidate who has achieved this feat has since retired (or been defeated), so this is a first test. How much of the growth in Greens support since 2011 was Parker’s personal vote?
I suspect the Greens will hold on but Labor has been putting up a serious challenge. There is also the prospect that the Liberal Party might change their longstanding policy of abstaining from preferences in Labor-Greens contests and instead preference the Greens, as they have registered a how-to-vote card preferencing the Greens (along with another following their standard ‘just vote 1’ practice.
Next up is Lane Cove (LIB 14.7%) on the lower north shore. Planning minister Anthony Roberts is being challenged by teal independent Victoria Davidson, who is one of five independents endorsed by Climate 200.
Climate 200 is also endorsing a challenger in Manly (LIB 13.1%), held by environment minister James Griffin. Manly was previously held by independents from 1991 until 2007 and is the heart of Zali Steggall’s federal seat of Warringah.
Liberal MP Felicity Wilson is also facing off against a teal challenger in North Shore (LIB 11.1%). This seat has seen the brunt of negative attacks from Climate 200, a tactic not previously seen from the group.
Further north, the seat of Pittwater (LIB 20.8%) is also under threat from a teal independent. Pittwater has a brief history of being held by an independent who won the seat at a 2005 by-election and then lost it to Liberal candidate Rob Stokes in 2007. Stokes is retiring this year and has been replaced as Liberal candidate by Rory Amon, a conservative local councillor.
The final seat with a Climate 200-endorsed challenger is Wollondilly (LIB 6.0%) on the south-western outskirts of Sydney. Former local mayor Judy Hannan is running for a second time after coming within 6% in 2019.
There are three other seats worth mentioning.
I am particularly interested in Wakehurst (LIB 21.8%), the remaining seat on the northern beaches between Pittwater and Manly. Health minister Brad Hazzard has retired after holding the seat for 32 years, and local mayor Michael Regan is running as an independent.
Independent Larissa Penn is also challenging sitting Liberal member Tim James in Willoughby (LIB 20.7%) for a second time after coming within 3.3% of winning at the by-election following Gladys Berejiklian’s retirement.
Finally, there has also been talk about Vaucluse (LIB 19.7%) where sitting Liberal member Gabrielle Upton is retiring after twelve years. Independent candidate Karen Freyer gives off a teal vibe but has not received Climate 200 endorsement.
So Ben, I thoroughly appreciate the quality of your work but I think its pretty silly to put out a summary like this and not acknowledge anywhere that some of these contests have the real potential to not be a Liberal vs IND result at all. If these contests are close, which you acknowledge here and on the podcast is a distinct possibility, then it could go hand in hand with the IND not making the top two, with the context being a traditional contest after all – and therefore not being in the bucket of seats this article is about (with benefit os hindsight)
I assume a basic level of understanding of the electoral system on my blog. If these contests are not close, then yes there’s a strong chance the Independent won’t come in the top two, but it also will be academic, because it won’t be close. I don’t see any of these seats being close if they end up being Liberal vs Labor. Which is in contrast to Lismore, Kiama and South Coast which I refer to in Thursday’s blog post and I explicitly include the possibility (likely) that they will end up as Labor vs Coalition.
Should have said “aren’t close”
so whos gonna win the Albury Gold CUp
I think that C200 has started to panic about all their North of the Harbour “Tealish” seats. According to an old insider from V4I, C200 has “changed its tactics … no more Mr Nice Guy”
It started with Byron Fay of C200 letter-boxing the electorates with leaflets bad-mouthing the Libs. This appalled the Teal candidates.
Then about 4 days ago they realised what you have alluded to above – if you come second, you have only a very slim chance of winning.
Now they are asking their Teal candidates – who have already printed their JV1 HTVs to say to voters at the pre-poll booths “number all the boxes”. C200 even has a live billboard truck running around the seats with the same messages.
The Manly Teals can’t say I didn’t warn them.
The SMH’s “CBD” is doing a daily slow leak of this stuff and the AFR had a feature story yesterday “NSW teals change tack as polls predict poor result”
Geoff Lambert
That’s mostly fair enough Ben, however a short paragraph with the content of your comment would have been beneficial to the blog item.
You’ve long been a proponent of a theory that the Greens may supplant Labor as the main opposition party in northern Sydney. That’s just 1 reason why I don’t think it’s reasonable to say that:
“there’s a strong chance the Independent won’t come in the top two, but it also will be academic, because it won’t be close”.
It may be academic to this election result but not to the balance of political influence in the region over the medium term. If some of these seats get within 5 – 10% 2PP (especially under OPV) then that is a significant outcome. I’d even have a wager that at least one of these seats will be quite close.
“Parker was the second ever Greens member elected in a single-member contest at the 2011 election following on from Adam Bandt who won his seat at the 2010 federal election.”
***
Michael Organ in Cunningham came before him and Bandt. It was a by-election but he was the first Green in the House of Reps back in 2002.
Thanks for the good read. Was checking out a couple of your podcasts today too, they’re really well done and well worth a listen no matter what political party you support. Australia needs more of that kind of political coverage.
I’m tipping no more than just one aforementioned Liberal electorate will flip to an independent. It’ll most likely one of the following: Wakehurst, Wollondilly or Pittwater. It won’t be a federal-style explosion in the number of crossbenchers.
With all the talk of hung parliamment the greens have run a very low key campaign most people wouldfind it hard to name any greens mp with acseption of there former defacto state leader shoebridge hardly any one has heard of Katte Feahrmann there lead upper house candadate the greens need to appoint a state leader if they want to increase there vote and be as succesfull as they are in federal maybi ABagale boyd ofwould be good the party has last state coveridge with shoebridge move to senate
I’m sorry Insider I just don’t agree. I can’t cover every angle in every article and I just don’t think it is particularly interesting to dwell on what happens if these independent candidates don’t perform well. If they don’t perform well, these seats will very quickly disappear into the background. You seem to be arguing that Labor might come close in some of these seats? I just don’t see it, and if so I don’t think they’re of any more interest than other seats where Labor may get a decent swing yet have little chance of winning like Epping, Terrigal, Drummoyne, Miranda. The whole point of this piece is to focus on where I think the most interest is.
Firefox, good point, will correct. I am specifically referring to those elected at general elections. There have been 3 Greens elected at by-elections. None of them were re-elected.
Well done on above prediction Votante – you might yet be right that only one of Wakehurst, Wollondilly or Pittwater flips, though looking like 2 – no otehrs look like being that close.
I was close but not quite there with my prediction that Labor could get close in Lane Cove. 9% swing with the best PPVC for Labor still to come in – it will probably finish around a 5% margin.
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