Polls have now opened for election day for the Victorian state election.
Please use this post to discuss today’s events, and also tonight’s results.
I won’t be posting a liveblog as I will be blogging at the Guardian, but I will be back with further analysis from Sunday.
Really can’t foresee and pubs playing the election up here in SEQ. Might have to watch the World Cup instead.
It will be live around Australia on the ABC News channel. 😀
Have pubs ever broadcasted federal or in-state elections?
(I’m not talking about at some candidate’s election party)
Yes. But I can only think of one outside Canberra, in Newcastle, and that pub is closed.
A couple of years ago I asked a pub owner why elections aren’t broadcasted in pubs. His response: “elections are too intellectual”.
Votante: On Election night 2014 I was at the Critetion Hotel in Sale (in Gippsland South), and each of the pub’s three TV sets were tuned to election coverage: one on the ABC, one on Seven and one on Nine.
If anyone cares, my grandson’s primary school didn’t have a sausage sizzle – but the Kallista CFA across the road did a roaring trade, mostly because they also got passers by.
The closest we had to a cooker was someone handing out how to vote cards for someone dog whistling about banning LGBTQ+ ‘education’ in schools.
I took the card and binned it, and gave back the Greens HTV card – reuse at it’s finest!
PS – the VEC needs to increase the font size. I don’t normally need glasses when I’m out and about, so I don’t bother to pack them. Reading the party names was really difficult, not helped by low lighting in the booth. Accessibility isn’t just a ramp!
Same here, no sausage sizzle… apparently schools still think you can get covid from touching stuff (long ago debunked even by CHO’s au-wide), but still some hanging on to the past.
Agree font size was TINY…
Once again a lot of damage to conservative signs near polling location and all but independant and ALP signs missing from nearly all of Rowville electorate. Talked to Wells (who was where I voted) and he said they had to put new signs TWICE a week as they were being stolen (not by council for change)…
Also seems to have been a lot of red shirts around here last two weeks. Can’t see them winning Rowville tho even with all the tricks. Also can’t see jackson Taylor getting up. he basically disappeared for two years (no responses to email (was gmail autoresponder from his parliament email), and no calls, and no-one ever in main office. Seems to have come out of hibernation for the election with this oversized signs (larger than knox council allows, but somehow still up? #bias) knox has been less vigilant this election with signs, but that might be due to the amount of signs ‘walking’ on their own reducing the need.
Plenty of presence around for Freedom Party this time around… an interesting one for this election. Will wait and see how they fare also in their first election and see how much they can steal from Dan in Mulgrave. Been some big swings against leaders to independents in last few years.
Women Candidates will have a 3 to 5% margin advantage, For this reason and the order of the ballot paper I give the ALP an overall advantage in Albert Park. Prahran. will be the Greens weakest intercity held seat. They need to secure the top two places to hold on. Melbourne sadly will be a challenge Labor should poll top or second., The Liberal Preferences being the decider. The Greens have poll position being just below the Liberal Party on top pf the ballot paper. We shall see.
Well hopefully now the Libs realise their strategy of “abandoning the inner city” and lurching the party further to the right hasn’t worked. They couldn’t win a single seat in the northern or western suburbs even with the massive swings and fell further behind in the eastern suburbs.
I pointed out many times that the statewide 2PP would not be very meaningful in this election due to the likelihood of the Liberal swing being concentrated in safe Labor seats. That’s what has played out – a statewide swing to the Coalition, but a near status quo in number of seats between the major parties.
The swing gave the Libs 2 extra upper house MLCs but I don’t think they would consider that much of a win.
I don’t understand why commentators stick to the old ‘early voters are wealthy conservatives’ line.
Early voters are also people who work on weekends – who work in retail, hospitality, healthcare… many who were – and are – supported by policies of the Labor government including paid sick leave and Covid restrictions to limit the impact on health care.
Early voting is no longer the cliche LNP voter
The areas which swung the most to Labor are the ones where the SRL runs through such as Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley. The Libs would be regretting their decision to scrap it.
How do the results line up with the percentage of voters who rent vs own? What reason do renters have to vote for the party of landlords, developers and real estate agents (the Liberals)?
I think the thing that most shocked me was how horribly the rural independents did.
Ali Cupper and Suzanna Sheed losing both Mildura and Shepparton to nats was insane. An increase of 5% or more to other primary, faced with a 10% swing in shepparton was harrowing.
Honestly nats had a fantastic night, doubled their reps in the LC and won 3 marginal seats with a possibility of winning a fourth off the libs in narracan. Sam groth, a strong rural presence for the libs, and a poor teal showing is all that keeps them from the opposition.
Really the country just firmed hard for the coalition. SW coast, Elidon and Benambra all should have been close and just were not.
Werribee, Point Cook, Sandringham, especially Melton and Brighton not even getting into the double digits for indis was just astounding as well, definitely after both redbridge and roy morgan predicted a indi gain for melton and brighton.
The greens, labor and liberal results within the city were expected and show nothing we haven’t learned from the federal election.
Teal results are interesting. It certainly shows the limitations of the teals without a liberal government to rage against and close labor 2pp contests. Caulfield again forced the point that climate 200 cannot astroturf where a true voices group does not exist. On that point I think it was established that the holy trinity of 1. Voice group, 2. Climate 200 and 3. Popular perception of a safe liberal seat (Hawthorn counts due to Pesuttomania) needs to be established for a teal victory. I reckon Kew proves that there is an extent to teal momentum, and booths where teals did not do well federally will not do well for them state wide *Looks pointedly at Valcluse* .
The only seat I am watching with real intensity is Preston. I reckon Geatano greco, will overtake the greens on good preferences, and will keep better preference flows from liberals. It might not be enough, but I wouldn’t classify it as a labor hold just yet
Legislative council seems to be proving Labor realigning its preferences to the left was a good idea, losing seats but ensuring a left-wing majority, which they would’ve needed to negotiate with anyway. The left have 23 seats out of 40 : Lab 15 (-3), Grn 4 (+3), LC 2 (+2), R 1, AJP 1.
Libs end up with 12 (+1), Nats 2 (+1), On 1 (+1) for a right wing bloc of 15
The last two are the only remnants of Glen druery’s savaged bloc, with Sff 1, and DLP 1 (+1). TM and SUS both lose 1, LDP lose 2 and DHJ losing a staggering 3 (-6).
Interesting races in the Legislative council include,
if the left lose big on postal vote, the greens could be denied a seat to DHJ in western victoria on a swing of 2%
Whether Legalise Cannabis or Victorian Socialists get up in Western metro – Legalise Cannabis vote did drop significantly as alternate vote was counted in the federal and they only manage to exclude VS by 1%
Whether Liberal or DLP also get up in Western Metro – A difference of 1% as well.
Who gets the last seat in northern metro. TM was supposed to be the recipient of the druery gravy train, but get excluded early on. If they can gain a couple hundred votes on alternates, they take up the rest of the duery preferences and have a good shot at winning. However if they don’t the DLP seems like they will get this seat, though the LDP and the Libs are both within one percent of victory regardless,
The closest contest by far is Nothern Vic. ON is only beating the Labor candidate by around 300 votes here.
However these races go, a Left Majority Legislative chamber is assured. However this could heavily influence the voice the far-right have, which could be nothing, or could be 2 DLP, 1 ON, 1DHJ.
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