Today’s post is a quick one. I’ve mostly finished my list of ideas for blog posts, so for today I’m just going to ask: who do you think will win?
Post your thoughts in the comments below!
Victoria 2022 prediction thread
Today’s post is a quick one. I’ve mostly finished my list of ideas for blog posts, so for today I’m just going to ask: who do you think will win?
Post your thoughts in the comments below!
Melton is being gifted to jarrod Bingham or the libs
Labor 44
Liberals 22
Nationals 6
Independents 10
Greens 6
More predictions to follow.
Although there’s a coalition of various resentments against the Andrews government, it’s hard to see how a slightly tarnished Matthew Guy could draw sufficient voters to cause a big upset. Nonetheless, in these elections, blue oriented seats that the ALP have held are likely to “revert to form” and elect Liberals once more. As for the Greens, well they always score big in the inner city but haven’t pulled off a Queensland effort yet, have they? If people park their discontent with the Greens instead of the Libs, then they could be a chance to win 2 sseats notwithstanding that Federal Labor has been performing well on the environment (eg, COP).
Labor 45 seats.
Andrews is a very polarizing premier and the ALP will lose a lot of votes from the anti mask/vaccine/lockdown crowd. This may be enough to lose a swag of seats, especially in the more marginal working class electorates (think Penrith in Sydney). On the other hand the Coalition is going to hemorrhage seats to the Greens and Teals. I’d go for a ALP win, but with a minority government, a very large crossbench and the loss of a lot of ‘heartland’ seats by the Liberals. That will leave Andrews with the choice of doing a deal with the Greens or securing enough crossbench support to form government.
I expect Labor to lose several seats ending up with either a narrow majority or a hung parliament. My individual seat predictions for the competitive seats likely to change hands:
Pakenham, Hastings and Nepean – Likely Liberal gains
Melton – Likely independent gain (probably Ian Birchall but could be Jarrod Bingham)
Ripon and Hawthorn – leaning toward Liberal gains
Richmond and Northcote – leaning toward Green gains (likely gains if Liberals direct preferences to Greens)
Caulfield and Glen Waverley – leaning toward Labor gains
For the other competitive Labor held seats, I see Bayswater and Box Hill as toss-up seats against Liberals and also Point Cook as a toss-up against Independent Joe Garra. Labor could lose all three if they have a bad night.
Watch the seat of Rowville. Well known and highly respected independent currently ahead of Labor at TAB. Depending on preference she could oust 30 year member.
Forgot to include Ringwood as another toss-up seat (Labor vs Liberal) and Morwell as leaning toward a National gain.
While I think Labor may lose some primary vote, most of them will come back via preferences. The whole angry lockdown mask vax protester isn’t going to make much difference in the scheme of things. Those people were not likely to have voted Labor in the past anyway. The union movement wasn’t really that involved and they will keep voting for Labor.
I think we’ll see seats like Hawthorn and Box Hill revert to conservative but whether that is Liberal or Teal I’m not entirely sure. I think the Teal independents have enough of a chance in the inner south east to pick up a couple.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Greens pick up at least one of Albert Park or Richmond with their long serving members gone, and possibly Northcote too. I don’t think they’ll get all three though.
Overall I can’t see where the Coalition can pick up The required seats to get close enough. They may gain a couple, bit no where near the 20 they’ll need (after losing a couple themselves either through redistribution or to Teals).
Libs gain Nepean (changed my mind in past days) and Pakenham. Hastings will stay Liberal if you count it as an ALP seat. Bass will be close.
Nats gain notionally ALP Morwell but it will be close, and I think the comments on this site have changed my mind a little (before I thought Nats would win without much trouble).
Either an independent or Liberals gain Melton.
Labor gain Polwarth and Glen Waverley, and (notionally held) Ripon. Labor will retain notionally Liberal Bayswater.
Warrandyte will be surprisingly close. I slept on Eildon – actually looks decent for ALP.
Either teal or Labor gains Caulfield.
Hawthorn is a mess and any of Lib, ALP or Teal could win.
Teals retain Mildura (and Shepparton) and gain Benambra, South West Coast, Kew, Sandringham and Mornington. The leftward shift of the seats will end up with teals.
Brighton is possible but the campaign is less well organised.
Big missed opportunity for teals in Malvern (which will swing left but not by enough).
Greens gain Richmond, Northcote, Albert Park. Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray will be close, leaning Green but not sure Greens moved fast enough on the opportunity. Williamstown same but stronger for Labor. Essendon and Ivanhoe may be interesting until Postal+Prepoll comes in and pushes Greens to 3rd, at which point they will be forgotten as easy ALP retains.
The overall 2PP will be something like 54/46 to ALP, but very non uniform swing. Libs swings will be big in Safe ALP seats where Labor have a lot of margin, and overkill in Pakenham and Berwick. Even in the LC the shift might not get enough primaries to the Liberals for gains.
There will be plenty to discuss post election but ultimately Labor will form government and have more than enough support for their agenda in both houses, and the Liberals won’t look anything close to a government in waiting.
Yes John, forgot Bass is also another close seat (Labor vs Liberal).
I think it will be an interesting outcome. There is a fair bit of angst against Andrews, but it’s not coalescing around any one party or issue. So we could have a situation where Labor suffers a decent primary vote fall, but hangs on to lots of seats because opposition is splintered and fractured all over the place.
I think it could be that Labor wins reasonably comfortably on paper in terms of seats, but this disguises a lot of vulnerabilities for 2026: low primary vote, traditionally safer seats made marginal, having to fight multiple different fronts for different demographics and seats, etc.
A bit like 1996 perhaps. Kennett won comfortably, but in hindsight you can look back at swings the regions and rise of independents in safer seats, and see that the warning signs were there for 1999.
If Malcolm Tucker was asked about providing an election prediction he would say the election results will be “an omnishamble with votes spraying around like a mad woman’s excrement….” I agree.
How this relates into seats won and lost by the parties / independents is anyone’s guess.
Labor will lose seats. The real question is it enough to push them below an outright majority. And if so how far. Do they have to deal with the greens or simply align with one or two independents.
I can’t see labor losing enough seats to give the liberals the chance to form a government. But wouldn’t be shocked if there was a big swing (like 1999) and seats that aren’t on anyone’s radar fall.
Liberals will pick up about (net) 5 seats.
Nationals to stay the same
Independents to win a few (Kew plus a couple more).
Greens to win two (Richmond & Northcote).
Surprise of the night – libs to do better than expected in seats like Mordialloc, Bentleigh or Oakleigh. One (or more) fall in “surprise” liberal election win. Bit like the seat of Macedon in the 99 election.
Will be back to eat a good serving of humble pie next Monday when my predictions are proven to be absolutely wrong!
Have a great weekend.
Pollster
I think all currently held IND will go NAT.
3, maybe 4 ALP seats will become green.
Teal and other IND will take 4 or 5 seats, 2 from ALP and 3 from Coalition.
At best for the Coalition, Alp will end up with a 9 seat majority after Narracan is retained.
Although I think there is a small chance of the Nats taking Narracan.
It could even come down to the Nats holding more then the LIBs.
Labor, but with Greens making up ground lost last time. But Victorian Socialists to pick up the 5th spot in Northern Metro in the upper house? If successful, I think Jerome Small will be the first candidate standing on an explicitly socialist ticket to be elected in any parliamentary chamber since Fred Paterson? One to watch.
Ok here are my predictions, I’ll start with the ‘non-classics’.
Greens targets:
– HOLD Prahran, Melbourne & Brunswick on increased margins
– GAIN Northcote & Richmond
– Make the 2CP (but not win) in Footscray, Preston and Pascoe Vale
– Dramatically increase their vote in Albert Park, but it will remain ALP v LIB
IND contests:
– HOLD Mildura (well, notionally GAIN) and Shepparton
– GAIN Kew, Benambra and Melton
– Toss up in Hawthorn
– Outside chance in Mornington, but still tip LIB retain
– Will make the 2CP (but not win) Point Cook, South West Coast and Mulgrave
– Will not make the 2CP in Caulfield, Brighton or Sandringham
Traditional contests – LNP held marginals (including notional):
– LNP HOLD Sandringham, Warrandyte, Croydon, Eildon, Evelyn, Berwick, Polwarth, Bass (notional).
– ALP GAIN Glen Waverley, Brighton, and notionally ‘regain’ Bayswater
Traditional contests – ALP held marginals (including notional):
– ALP HOLD Caulfield (notional), Box Hill, Ashwood, Ringwood, Ripon (notional), Morwell, South Barwon.
– LNP GAIN Hastings (notional ALP), Pakenham, Nepean,
– ALP LOSE Hawthorn, but unsure whether to IND or LIB
From the ‘notional’ starting point of 58 ALP, 26 LNP, 3 GRN and 1 IND, that would equate to the following:
– ALP 54 (-4)
– LNP 24 or 25 (-1 or -2, depending on Hawthorn)
– GRN 5 (+2)
– IND 4 or 5 (+3 or +4 depending on Hawthorn)
More broadly: Large swings against Labor in the outer west, outer north and seats like Berwick & Pakenham; small swings towards Labor in the inner south and on the SRL corridor; Greens to get swings in all their target seats; big swing towards INDs but making the 2CP count will be the barrier in a lot of them.
Between Labor and the Coalition, I predict several seats will change hands, but in roughly equal numbers in either direction. The Greens and independents will each have six seats.
@ Trent, Regarding Brighton and Sandringham do you feel there is a different dynamic going on there? Potentially going in opposite directions I haven’t been that side of town for over a year nor do i know anyone personally who lives in that area.
My view is that the federal election is a very good guide as to how things are likely to play out. In fact the 54.8 2PP to Labor in Victoria is very possibly going to be replicated this election, along with similar voting patterns.
I want to wait for more final week polls (esp Newspoll) before final predictions but that’s where I currently think things are at.
My prediction (probably wrong).
ALP 43
L/NP 35
GRN 5
Independent 5
Worst case scenario for Labor (best case for Coalition)
L/NP 50
ALP 25
GRN 7
Independent 6
Best case scenario for Labor (worst for Coalition and Greens)
ALP 60
L/NP 20
GRN 3
Independent 5
Best case scenario for Greens*
ALP 38
LNP 30
GRN 10
Independent 10
I believe the Libs will lose Caulfield and Glen Waverely but pick up Pakenham and Nepean. Labor will lose Hawthorn but it’s a toss up whether the Libs or Teal win it. Bayswater is a complete toss-up. Labor is at risk in Melton and Point Cook to independents with Melton being more at risk. Labor should be able to retain Werribee since there isn’t any strong independent there this time. Greens will win Northcote and Richmond off Labor in addition to holding all their seats but Albert Park should be able to be retained by Labor unless the Greens manage to overtake the Libs on preferences. Brighton and Sandrignham are toss-ups but the Libs should be favoured to win there.
The “tightening” of the polls that’s been all over the media the last few days will be a mirage, The big swings to the Liberal Party will be too concentrated in outer-suburban seats Labor hold by fat margins (The federal result in Calwell is a good example of this, there was a 7%+ swing to the Liberals but it didn’t even halve the Labor margin).
In terms of the battleground electorates it will be a complete mess with no coherent swing either way, The Greens and Independents will do well, resulting in net losses for both majors who will trade a few seats between them (Labor lose some seats around the Mornington Peninsula, gain some in the inner city, such as Caulfield or Brighton, I won’t get too much into the specifics because I don’t have a feel for, and don’t live in Victoria).
At large I still don’t see how Labor lose majority government, 10 seats held by <5% seems easy enough, but if the swing is as patchy as I anticipate, and if the conservative surge doesn't occur where it is needed it'll be hard ask, a majority of 2-5 seats is what I think will eventuate, with the Liberals also shrinking to 24-26 seats.
The upper house will be fun to watch, I'll be brave and say there'll be two minor party candidates elected for each region, with no party exceeding 3 seats.
@Nimalan regarding Brighton & Sandringham, I honestly don’t think either will change too much compared to 2018 on 2PP terms, but I favour Brighton slightly more.
Someone over at PollBludger mentioned that working at the pre-poll on the Brighton/Sandringham boundary, both the ‘teal’ and Labor seemed to have a lot of support for Brighton, whereas Brad Rowswell seemed to be getting a lot more support than James Newbury. It should be noted too that a prepoll down there is far away from Labor’s best area in Brighton too (Elwood).
Prepoll stuff like that is often meaningless and just anecdotal, but it does reinforce my view that Newbury is more polarising and therefore more susceptible to a backlash/swing than Brad Rowswell.
Also, I think the IND will do better in Brighton than in Sandringham (not well enough to make the 2CP count), but due to her recent Liberal ties most of her vote will come from Newbury rather than Labor + Greens, and preference leakage alone from her eating into Newbury’s primary vote could be enough to flip the seat.
Whereas I think in Sandringham, the IND already ran last time and probably won’t do all that much better.
So in Sandringham I expect more of just a repeat of 2018 but perhaps a small “correction” back to Lib; whereas in Brighton I think the IND will throw a spanner in the works, mostly at Newbury’s expense, preference leakage could hurt him.
A smokey for Labor loss to Libs: Cranbourne. I have no data, just on vibe. Big Clive vote in May.
Tipping either a narrow Labor majority or minority, around 43-45 seats to ALP.
Greens to hold current seats and win Richmond and Northcote, but no others. Indies hold Shep and Mildura, plus take Kew, Benambra and Caulfield, maybe Pt Cook or Melton. Maybe also Brighton, but she’d essentially be a Lib without the tag. Not Mulgrave (Cook would be an absolute train wreck in parliament).
Nats take Morwell.
Everything else, the usual guesses of Pakenham, Hastings, Nepean going Lib.
It would be nice to have a final poll but…
Greens to win: Richmond, and 2 of 3 of Albert Park, Northcote, Pascoe Vale
Nats to win: Mildura, Morwell
Libs to win: Hawthorn, Nepean, Hastings, Bass, Pakenham
Libs to just hold on in Caulfield, Glen Waverley. Hold on to Ripon also.
Labor to win Box Hill.
Down to the wire in Ringwood, Brighton, Kew, Bayswater, South West Coast, Benambra. Any to go either way. Brighton possibly to Labor according to my local source.
Melton to either Libs or Ind.
Point Cook to Ind.
I have no visibility on Ashwood – frankly no idea. Same also with South Barwon and maybe … Bellarine.
My roughy is Eureka – Libs to pick up. Seemingly lots of local grumbles.
Decent swing in the 2PP will not be reflected heavily in seat count with safe ALP outer suburban areas seeing the largest swings to the ALP. ALP probably stays above 50 seats as some likely LIB gains such as Nepean, Bass, and Pakenham will be countered by possible ALP gains in Brighton, Caulfield, and Glen Waverley. I think the Greens will be a big story of the night, Richmond and Northcote will be fairly easy pickups but they can really make noise if they pickup anything more than those two. Going seat by seat, I find that unlikely, but there’s a decent chance that one of Albert Park, Footscray, or Pascoe Vale ends up going Green. For Independents, teals look set to gain Kew while the red wall in the west falls with Dr. Ian Birchall gaining Melton. Hawthorn may go independent but a Lib gain is possible as well. Independent is a good shot in Benambra too as far as I know so I’ll give that one to them. As for a final seat count, I don’t really know but I’ll say the ALP on 52 seats with the LNP on 26 or so, ultimately a really disappointing night for them as Dan Andrews cruises to a third term in government.
My source on all things Bayside has described James Newbury as “victoria’s wierdest human being” . They didn’t feel the independent buzz and thought Labor in with a chance.
I just can’t see Brighton being any chance for Labor. The Zoe Daniels effect mean some will definitely just jump onto Frederico as a bit of bandwagoning… even though she’s very much not a Daniels. It’ll be Lib vs Ind.
Eureka should stay Labor from what I’ve heard. ALP’s biggest problem there is that it now includes Bacchus Marsh, but the landfill-protest in BM was trying to lean more on an independent. So the redistribution might have the effect of spoiling Melton somewhat for Birchall and splitting the Labor protest vote in Eureka.
@Expat, I can’t see the IND overtaking Labor in Brighton for the following reasons, because firstly her Liberal ties will limit the swing she gets at the expense of Labor & Greens, and secondly Elwood is solid Labor/Greens and 20% of the seat. Goldstein had no such comparable Labor/Greens stronghold at all, let alone one that made up a fifth of the electors. On top of that, the Greens are preferencing Labor ahead of her – opposite to Goldstein, and even the opposite to Kew, Hawthorn & Caulfield.
All of that is going to make it really difficult for her to get into the 2CP count.
In Goldstein, two-thirds of Daniels’ vote came from ALP/Greens and one-third from the Liberals, I think not only will Felicity Frederico’s vote be less overall than Daniels’ vote, but its source will be the opposite – probably two thirds from the Libs and the other third mostly from voters who swung LIB to ALP in 2018.
I can’t see her leapfrogging Labor + most Labor getting most Greens preferences, in a seat that has 76% ALP 2PP booths in its north.
I think if she eats into enough of Newbury’s primary vote, while the ALP/Greens vote holds up well enough, preference leakage alone could cost Newbury the seat.
Zoe Daniel and the other successful teals had been campaigning for months before the Federal election. Frederico hasn’t spent anywhere near that same time building up her profile. And most crucially, I don’t see Labor and Green voters flocking behind her like they did for the other teals. Besides being a failed Liberal preselection candidate, Brighton is a clearly winnable seat for the Labor party and unlike 2018 (where their 19 year old candidate missed by 1%) they put actual investment into their candidate and campaigning.
I think Boothby is a better comparison for the result of a teal who is forced to compete with the Labor party rather than siphoning their voters by virtue of the seat not being winnable.
I’ll add that North Sydney was a successful example of a teal outperforming the Labor party putting a serious campaign – but she had been campaigning for a long time before the election. Plus Zimmerman had a 10% margin and a lot of left-wing voters felt the need to put her above Labor for tactical reasons (and they were correct in the end). Which likely explains the small lead she had over Labor.
Labor will win, too much of a deficit for LNP to overcome. The Libs may get big swings to them but it’ll be in ultra-safe Labor seats whereas the Libs may be vulnerable in their more marginal seats.
Labor: Morwell (notionally held).
Libs: Hawthorn (more uncertain due to demographic changes), Nepean, Hastings, Bass (notional hold), Pakenham.
Nats: Not sure, don’t know how well Cupper has been received in Mildura or Sheed’s reputation after the super school (i think what will hep her is that a lot of Nats supported it).
Greens: Richmond and Northcote, although not sure if recent controversies will hinder Greens even though they were federal issues and whether the performance of the Yarra council will hinder them.
IND: Melton and Point Cook. Although bit unsure of how Garra will go in Point Cook considering his connection is more in Werribee.
Yeah North Sydney was different because despite Labor putting in a concerted effort, it still appeared too much of a “long shot” to win, whereas Brighton isn’t because they came so close with a nobody candidate 4 years ago.
Like Goldstein too & Warringah too, North Sydney doesn’t include any really solid left wing suburbs in it. It’s pretty consistently “small l” Liberal across the whole seat which is similar to Goldstein, Kooyong, Warringah, etc. People often forget that the seat of Brighton doesn’t only overlap with Goldstein, but includes about 11,000 electors from one of Macnamara’s most left-leaning suburbs.
@ Trent agree with Elwood is left wing and a teal would not appeal nor a moderate liberal. with respect to Sandringham there are no left wing areas but the suburbs along the Frankston line are middle class rather than elite. this is an area where Labor is popular with all the level crossing removals etc which is why the won a thumping margin here similar to the result in Bentleigh
@Trent
Fair point re: Brighton.
My pick
5 to 7 ind
65 to 70.alp
5 to 7 nats
4 to 6 libs
Remember Nacarran goes to.a
Supplementary election so only 87 seats accounted for
Every one has assumed 2018 was the alp Higwater mark but
I disagree climate and 2pp are
Very similar now to then.
I predict libs hold seats with a 5% margin or better. Alp hold seats with 3% margin or better
Nats maybe drop a couple of seats.
Lydia Thorpe factor stops greens winning seats like
Richmond from.alp.
Labor wins Polwarth and Morwell retains Ripon
.liberals lucky to hold 1 country seat. More nats than liberals.
Mick, have you seen recent polls for Victoria? They all show ALP vote declining in both primary and 2PP vote terms.
I stand by my prediction. Look at comments besides me on
Indiv seats. Caulfield Bayswater
MORWELL etc
While I don’t agree with Mick’s prediction that Labor is going to win 70 seats, I would make the point that statewide 2PP is less meaningful in this election than perhaps any state or federal election in living memory. If there are 10% swings to the Liberals in the outer suburbs, but status quo in eastern Melbourne, Labor will easily hold their majority despite a large statewide swing.
Fair point Nicholas, this election may be like SA 2010 where there were large swings in safe seats but negligible swing in the marginal seats, so a 2PP swing of 5% or more wouldn’t necessarily lead to a large increase in Liberal held seats.
In 2018, particularly in Melbourne, the Libs had no source of preference flows. A lot of seats were just Lib – ALP-AJP-Greens. This time there are more candidates and more preference flows. The Libs were on the nose, particularly after Turnbull was dumped and a lot of protest votes went away from the Libs. A few other candidates and the Libs might have held on in one or two seats.
I’d imagine the voters that deserted the Libs because Morrison replaced Turnbull would not be particularly thrilled that Dutton has replaced Morrison.
Mick is a riot. I’m kinda disappointed he has the Vic Libs (who I don’t hold a candle for) at 5 seats. I thought it should be less!!
@Mick Quinlivan What seat do you see Labor winning to put them at 65-70 seats and what reasons for winning those seats. Also you’ve described Labor as winning Morwell but retaining Ripon even though both seats are notionally Labor vs Lib and Ripon has a Lib incumbent so it’s more accurate to describe Labor as winning Ripon.
Mick. Put down the cool aid. The ALP will lose 12 seats at a minimum to the LNP. Then they will lose a couple to the Greens. Ian Cook is looking very strong in Mulgrave. ALP are in huge trouble.
Mick. Put down the cool aid. The ALP have lost 7% from the 2018 election and the LNP has increased 5%. How you can conclude that the ALP will be 70 seats, up from 58. The ALP will lose 8-12 seats at a minimum to the LNP. Then they will lose a couple to the Greens. Ian Cook is looking very strong in Mulgrave. ALP are in huge trouble.
Country seats..Ripon Polwarth Morwell retain Bass
Naccaran at supplemental election. Labor holds all seats with a current 3% margin or more eg Pakenham. The fight will be over 2% seats either way.. the teals will win a couple other independents will be relected Shepparton Mildura. Helen Haines territory…. over 5 % libs will retain their seats eg Malvern. This roughly equates to my predictions
Country seats are the demographics going Alps
Way
Moderate my sparring mate… yes libs could be less than 5 which means teals and nats will
Be more. I had to set the barrier for liberal retain 5% seems to be their safe seats like Mornington Malvern.. I will make
An exception of the 5% rule for Naccaran.. maybe that seat could be Labor or Nat.. then again the nats had some problems with er Candidate selection
Wait till we come to nsw later
I will go out on a limb and suggest Dom will retain Epping
I will ignore the federal figures across that seat
Labor majority. They hold 44 lower house seats on margins of 7% or higher. I highly doubt any of those seats would swing by over 7%. Large swings may happen in safe Labor seats.
Likely LNP gain: Nepean, Hastings, Bass (Labor-held, notional Liberal), Pakenham
Leaning LNP gain: Ripon (notional Labor)
Leaning ALP gain: Bayswater, Glen Waverley
Likely GRN gain: Northcote, Richmond
Likely IND gain: Kew
Leaning IND gain: Melton
Tossups: Benambra (NAT vs IND), Point Cook (ALP vs IND), Caulfield (three-way race, most likely LIB loss), Hawthorn (three-way race, most likely ALP loss), Morwell .
The independents will be interesting to watch.
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