Today’s post is a quick one. I’ve mostly finished my list of ideas for blog posts, so for today I’m just going to ask: who do you think will win?
Post your thoughts in the comments below!
Victoria 2022 prediction thread
Today’s post is a quick one. I’ve mostly finished my list of ideas for blog posts, so for today I’m just going to ask: who do you think will win?
Post your thoughts in the comments below!
There two paths I see that could happen on the night
Prediction 1 if there anti-labor outer suburban occurs with the independents & Greens perform well.
Labor loses to Liberal
South East to the Liberal Party
Bass, Hastings, Cranbourne, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South & Pakenham
Maybe Nepean, haven’t seen an anti-Labor move but only on here due to the small margin & what others have said with it being historically Liberal as well.
West Lost to Independent
Melton, Werribee & Point Cook
West Lost to Liberal Party
Sunbury & Macedon
North to the Liberal party
Yan Yean
Maybe Eltham, this is a bit of a stretch but if the swing is on this seat could come into play & has been uncomfortably close e.g 2010.
Inner North seats Lost to the Greens
Northcote, Richmond, Albert Park & Pascoe Vale
Inner East seats lost to Independent
Hawthorn
Prediction 2 if there anti-labor DON’T occur outer suburban occurs with the independents & Greens performing poorly. Labor possibly pick up some seats which is possible but unlikely.
Labor loses to Liberal
South East to the Liberal Party
Hastings
Maybe Pakenham due to the small margin
Country Liberal gain
Ripon, Mathew Guy has visited here a lot from what I’ve been told which would suggest that this seat is still in play.
West Lost to Independent
Melton
Maybe Werribee due to the retiring incumbent & lockdown anger
Inner North seats Lost to the Greens
Northcote & Richmond
Seats Labor take off Liberal
Caufield, Glen Waverley & South-West Coast, with the increase of the independent vote at the expense of the LNP South-West Coast could fall to Labor.
Seats Independent take of Liberal
Brighton, Sandringham, Benambra & Mornington, doubtful with Mornington but there is an outside chance
Seats Labor take off the Greens
Prahran, this is extremely unlikely but its a messy seat & is won on third preferences
I think it’ll be a Labor minority. Can’t be bothered doing seat by seat as some have done.
I definitely will continue to laugh at Mick’s prediction of 70-75 seats for Labor lol
@Mick Quinlivan Labor’s margin is under 3% in Pakenham.
@Bob How can you say that you haven’t seen any anti-Labor movement in Nepean when there was anger in this seat due to been locked down. Also don’t know how you can have Narre Warren North and South and Cranbourne been lost but Neppean a maybe when the other seat are on a way safer margin and Nepean has a history of voting Lib.
Bob, Why would Narre Warren North go Liberal with a bad candidate? No way buddy, Ain’t happening.
Labor will win 50 seats. (I went through seat by seat and came to the conclusion Labor will get a majority (but reduced)
23 Liberal seats + 8 Nationals which makes 31 coalition seats.
There will be 4 Greens + 3 Independents
Liberals gain Hawthorn,Monbulk,Pakenham,Bass (Notional Retain), Hastings (Notional Gain) and Nepean.
Nats pick up Morwell (Notional Gain) and Mildura
Labor gain Glen Waverley and Ripon (Notional Retain)
Independents gain Benambra and Melton, And lose Mildura as stated above and fail to take key target seats like Kew and Hawthorn.
Greens will only gain Northcote. Lidia Thorpe is not popular in Victoria and her past barbaric comments have hurt the Greens.
Some seat’s I decided on a coin-toss like Caulfield, Brighton, Glen Waverley, Cranbourne, Eureka, Macedon, Benambra, Richmond, Ripon and all of those could still go either way.
Labor 50 (+/- 7) (Min 43, Max 57)
Coalition 31 (+/-8) (Min 23, Max 39)
Greens 4 (+3/-1) (Min 3, Max 7)
Independent 3 (+4/-1) (Min 2, Max 7)
I’ll play a gambit and go by this.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-government-of-daniel-andrews-set-to-win-with-a-reduced-majority-as-support-for-l-np-grows-but-will-the-trend-continue
Daniel – how on earth do the Libs win in Monbulk and Macedon?
Hawthorn: IND Gain
Ashwood: LIB Gain
Kew: IND Gain
Caulfield: IND Gain
Ripon: LIB Gain
Melton: LIB Gain
Benambra: IND Gain
Brighton: IND Gain
Morwell: Nat Gain
Albert Park: GRN Gain
South Barwon: LIB Gain
Mornington: IND Gain
Pakenham: LIB Gain
Richmond: GRN Gain
Nepean: LIB Gain
Northcote: GRN Gain
Yan Yean: LIB Gain
I’ve downgraded my IND prediction from 10 to 9.
Upgraded Lib prediction from 22 to 23.
Labor 44
Nats 6 (+1/-1)
Greens 6 (+3)
Also keeping a keen eye on surprises in:
Niddrie, Sydenham and Yan Yean
SEQ Observer, Explanation on Melton, Why would a former Liberal MP who was parachuted from Burwood/Ashwood win there? And how is Melton less likely to go Independent than Mornington?
North East.
The variety of people’s guesses in a way prove my point. Your logic points also help some of the margins I did were based on memory.parkenham is between 2 and 3…2.8? So this becomes closer and based on candidates.
My projected alp now 58..I estimate alp 65 to70
.
Focussing on the seats in which I live and work: Polwarth – LAB gain; South Barwon, Geelong, Lara, Laverton, Kororoit, Sydenham, Werribee – LAB retain; Footscray – GRN gain possible; St Albans – LAB retain, but LAB v Ind (Tachos) 2CP.
@Daniel T
This call was a really tough one for me. I had Melton rated as Independent this morning. I see a division on the outer-suburban fringes like Melton as a less politically engaged electorate, one in which people are busy going about their lives and might not be engaged enough to assess the full field on candidates including the independent candidate before going in to vote. Divisions like these are generally more likely match up as a traditional 2CP contests between the two mainstream parties: Labor and Coalition. While I expect the IND candidate to do well on first-preferences, I think this will be just shy of the Liberal candidate. Either way I foresee either beating Labor here.
I consider Mornington having a different profile to Melton, one which has comparatively more educated and affluent voters. More likely attuned to the election and feature a segment of voters dismayed at the state of the Liberal brand and direction. The South-East is where I expect the “teal” type independent to resonate the strongest. My call here is based on the assessment that “teal” style independents will come off the back of the Federal election with some innate momentum. Even if the state candidates haven’t been as high profile, I think that the high-profile wins of the federal independents and their prominence have laid the groundwork throughout the South East of Melbourne. I have my eyes on Sandringham here too.
Interesting side-note, looking back at previous elections, betting markets and AE Forecasts made around ~10% seat predictions wrong usually. So to build my predictions, I started with AE Forecasts more likely scenarios and modified 10 of the 88 seats based on the following narrative I have constructed as the likely story:
ALP to take a hit in votes in the outer-suburban growth corridors, particularly the North West of Melbourne, with votes mostly flowing to community independents and Liberals. Most margins in the North West of Melbourne will not be able to be overcome by Liberals, although success will be had in the fringes and growth corridors. (I have Euroa as a close one probably going to Labor).
ALP to take a hit in votes in the inner-city from a strong Greens performance (I think Albert Park will be the surprise Green pick up but not Pascoe Vale).
ALP to face a swing against them in the South East of Melbourne but with votes flowing towards “Teal” candidates instead of to the Liberal party. Both Labor and Liberal will suffer first-preference drops here.
SEQ Observer. By South East Melbourne you seem to be talking about the southern suburbs/bayside around Brighton, Sandringham and even way out in Mornington. I guess to most Victorians the south eastern suburbs normally refers to Dandenong, Narre Warren, Pakenham, Cranbourne etc which are all working class areas where there will be swings against Labor.
I agree with your assessment but wouldn’t really call those areas the south east.
Agree with Adam similar to my comments in the Clarinda thread. I feel that Southern/Bayside suburbs should be given a seperate identity not referred to as South east. I spoke about how the Dingley bypass is a major social divide. Also the South East includes very ethnically diverse and disadvantaged areas while Southern Melbourne is quite Anglo and becoming more affluent. once the metro tunnel opens the Pakenham/Cranbourne line will only have one interchange at Caulfield before the CBD so I feel they have very different community of interest
My prediction:
Labor to gain Caulfield, Glen Waverley, Bayswater (notionally) (expect this will be very close but Jackson Taylor seems more popular than Wakeling so lean Labor)
Lose to LIB: Bass, Pakenham, Nepean, Hastings (notionally), Morwell (notionally), Ripon (notionally)(lineball, Labor could retain), could be some surprises like Eureka, Cranbourne but I doubt it, though sizeable swings there
IND gains: Kew, Hawthorn (Labor could win against expectations on a good night), Benambra, Melton, possibly Point Cook, outside chance in South West Coast. Mildura (notional)
GRN gains: Richmond, Northcote
ALP to win 48-50 seats
Adam’s predictions basically match mine although I don’t see an IND win in SW Coast.
I don’t think ALP will lose Eureka – Ballarat is too much of a Labor town, though that of course doesn’t preclude a large swing.
I don’t understand why people are saying Monbulk would be a LNP gain, it’s more likely that the Greens will improve their vote in that seat.
Monbulk I’d normally marginal have become safe whilst Mr
Merlino.was the mp..it was notionally lib going into the
2014 election.. is like the blue
Mountains in Sydney.. no.chance of a non Labor win.unless ĺabor was polling worse than 2010
I don’t think I have seen an election where there seems a greater split between what the polling says and the overall vibe on sites like this, the media etc.
Labors only real danger is that there is significant anti lockdown sentiment throughout the outer suburbs. If this is truly the case (and also don’t discount rising interest rates – I am in one of these areas and much better off than a lot of people and the rate rises are really hitting me) then the polls might be underestimating the swing, the move from Labor might well go to IND/Freedom/Others and go back to the Libs not Labor. If that happens, then there might a number of surprises on the night. If not, then a really really comfortable Labor win.
One thing I do think though – I am suspicious of any Green/Teal wave. The same set of people who would vote Green/Teal are the same people who think Dan has done a great job (generalisation obvs, plenty will dislike Dan and vote Teal/Green), so the swings away from Labor on PV might be a lot less in the inner city/tree change areas (which again points to some dangers in the outer metro area). I do think Labor will consolidate in the middle ring East/South East/Bayside areas. These are becoming the new Labor demography.
Agree Adam, apologies for being lazy, by south east I am referring to the inner south-east from the CBD and to an extent, parts of the sandbelt along the Mornington peninsula.
Agree that Melbourne’s actual south east has a separate identity, more multicultural and less affluent than those on the bayside.
My assessment of the south east is that it will mostly be swings and roundabouts with status-quo seat outcomes.
I also mention Euroa in one of my comments earlier in this thread, however it was a brain-fart. I meant Eureka.
Key issues her his overall 2PP Labor always going to come down from the high 50s 2PPs in polls & have campaigned poorly IMO but somewhere in mid to low 50s makes sense. 2022 federal election swing was highly uneven to unprecedented extent & this seems likely. Outer south-east margins look like Lib gains, but to threaten Labor they need to get enough of an overall swing to win inner eastern marginals (where swing will be less) & to win 60-ish Labor seats like the Narre Warrens, hold redistributed regional seats & get some elsewhere & not lose to Independents anywhere. On the western wall-Labor’s vote in long-term decline here but even as seats here become marginal Libs need a higher 2PP overall to win them than they are likely to get. On Covid/lockdowns etc. overall its a plus for Labor (quiet Victorians ?) but unhappy voters are particularly likely to change their vote (like gun control in US?) but they are poorly distributed to help Libs win seats.
What I find really exciting in this election is that something like half the seats in the lower house are ‘in play’ if the comments on here are anything to go by. I’ll be closely watching 24 Labor seats, 15 Liberal seats, all 3 Green seats and both Independents – and while I wouldn’t expect most of those to change, the fact that we are talking about them is a good sign for our democracy.
I live in Sandringham, the Liberals’ second most marginal seat, and what I can report from many hours on the prepoll is that probably one third of people politely take all cards, another one quarter maybe take none, on some days those who were just taking one card seemed to be more Labor, at other times more Liberal and some take only Greens card or Greens and Independents. There have been a small number of extremely rude, sometimes quite threatening ‘anti Dan Andrews’ people. But they are, I think, a very tiny minority.
The fact that Sandringham, Brighton and Caulfield are even being discussed in the list of ‘marginal seats’ is a sign that at least in this part of Melbourne, the Liberal party is no longer in total domination, and that’s certainly a good thing, in my view.
Danslide 2.0 time; LNP to be wiped out ala WA! Peshitto will lose again. Murdoch will be on suicide watch and once he dies, we will be celebrating in the streets! The LNP will be gone for good; they won’t win in 2026 or after that. Victoria is a Labor state and will remain so forever!
I assume that the Newspoll released late last night is adjusted and does fully capture geographical variance between different parts of the state which is more acute this election. If indeed the swing back to Libs in TPP terms is around 2.8% which is smaller than the swing back to Libs in 2006 which was 3.38%. In 2006 there were still sophomore surges in Eltham, Cranbourne and Bentleigh. With significant geographic variance expected this TPP should allow for a small swing to Labor in the Eastern Suburbs especially seats they picked up last time and have sitting members (Bayswater, Box Hill and Ashwood) so they could be a sophomore surge in those 3 seats. Other comments
1. Likely Liberal Gains in Pakenham, Hastings (notional), Nepean
2. Bass i can see two scenarios with opposite swings to Libs in Casey/Cardinia LGA but a swing to Labor in Bass Coast Shire with all the sea changers moving in
3. Ripon likely to be >1% either way. No prediction significant variance in booth results.
4. No prediction in Morwell unless there is a local who knows this
5. Potential Labor gain in Caulfield although with a very low PV due to Teal
6. Labor loss in Hawthorn but not sure if it will be Teal or Lib.
7. Libs in Trouble in Brighton. The Teal have zero impact in Elwood but can take votes away from both parties in Bayside LGA.
8. Sandringham, Teal can take votes of Labor in elite suburbs but along Frankton line Labor to remain strong.
Starting from Tally Room’s notional pendulum (Labor 58, Coalition 26, Greens 3, Ind 1). Marked the changes that I am >70% confident in as likely, the rest are all more uncertain than that to me.
Labor loss to Coalition: Hastings (likely), Pakenham (likely), Nepean (likely), Morwell, Hawthorn
Coalition loss to Labor: Bayswater, Glen Waverley
Coalition loss to independent: Mildura (likely), Benambra (likely), Kew (likely)
Labor loss to independent: Melton
Labor loss to Greens: Richmond (likely), Northcote (likely)
That leaves Labor 52, Coalition 26, Greens 5, Independent 5. Loads of close seats though and I can still see an outcome with Labor falling short of 45 (although it is quite unlikely). But I expect there’s been a good enough defensive effort in target electorates.
Broadly, I expect a similar pattern of swings as in the federal election, and that’s reflected in the seats that I see changing.
Comments on some close seats:
Brighton: I think Labor’s chance is highly underestimated here and the teal is overestimated. Still slightly leaning Liberal retain but Labor’s got a 30-40% chance.
Albert Park: Sizeable chance for the Greens but slightly more likely than not to miss out on making the 2CP leaving the seat a Labor retain.
Pascoe Vale: Need a decent swing from Labor to Greens but possible.
Hawthorn: Labor doesn’t seem to be doing well enough to retain here. Pesutto appears to have campaigned and presented himself well enough to win if this were the federal seat of Kooyong, but Hawthorn consists of the more left-leaning parts. Still, I don’t think the independent has the same buzz as Monique Ryan did so I think Pesutto edges this out. Again, could easily go either way.
Melton: Demographic change and likely patterns of swings don’t look good for Labor but they also had a very poor campaign here in 2018 where controversy about the candidate selection happened. The member should on this occasion be able to establish some personal vote but it might not be enough.
Ripon: No real clue what is going to happen here but the redistribution adding places close to Ballarat makes me tip it towards Labor.
South-West Coast: Absolutely no way for me to judge what’s going on here.
Most overhyped contest: Mulgrave. Ian Cook has zero chance and no feasible path. This reminds me of the hype for the independent in Hughes 2022 Fed, but even worse. At least the independent there didn’t need the incumbent party to lose over 20% on primaries and could expect good preference flows from defeated candidates (Labor/Greens).
A sky news poll says 55 to the ALP & 45 to the LNP.
Question: In the unlikely event the libs have a huge night and labor vote collapses:
Libs 40
Labour 32
Greens 8
Ind 8
With the greens and most independents favouring labour, what is the tipping point where labor numbers get too low to feasibly form minority government?
I had the ALP ring me at 7pm last night asking for votes – I have never had that before. Is it normal or are they worried and need to round up the very last undecideds?
As I voted early so it was all wasted effort from them. As was the Family First push poll half an hour later.
@Redustributed
I received spam texts from my local member, and I live in one of the safest Labor seats in the country. That has never happened before either. I also voted early (and against the incumbent).
I have always suspected that there is a significant discrepancy between what the public polls are saying and what is actually happening on the ground.
Only a few hours to see if my suspicions are correct. Internal sources from Labor (remarks from insiders found on twitter) are panicking about such a large undecided vote heading into today’s polls (it was 8% last time I checked – as much as 12-14% earlier in the week), which would support your experience.
So yeah I honestly don’t know what to expect. The election result depends on how heavily they break one way or the other, which is why I’m not so trusting of polls that give Labor a big lead with such a high level of undecideds still to commit. Traditionally, they break against the incumbent if the incumbent has been in for a while.
Will put my hand as a Labor partisan in making this pick. Being from NSW, and having no local intel whatsoever other than knowing notional margins per seat, identities of incumbent members and their challengers, the corresponding Federal election results from May (where Labor won 54.8% TPP in Victoria), and assuming a result in the ballpark of 54-56% TPP for Labor, I come up with:
Labor 52 (-4) — Min 46, Max 63
Liberals & Nationals 27 (0) — Min 17, Max 35
Greens 5 (+2) — Min 3, Max 5
Independents 4 (+2) — Min 1, Max 6
I have 13 seats I expect to be close but where I’m more confident of the outcome, and 8 others I’m completely unsure about.
Of the close seats I’d pick to change, I have:
Hastings – Notional Liberal Gain
Mildura – Notional Independent Gain
Nepean – Liberal Gain
Benambra – Independent Gain
Pakenham – Liberal Gain
Richmond – Greens Gain
My Toss-ups are:
Caulfield – Labor Gain
Hawthorn – Either a Labor Retain or Independent Gain
Bayswater – Notional Labor Gain
Bass – Liberal Gain
Northcote – Greens Gain
Ripon – Liberal Gain
Morwell – ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
South-West Coast – Independent Gain
Since Jackson Taylor went on holidays for two years not answering emails or returning calls and closing his office, the 20 votes that got him in might be not there this time. There is strong union ‘involvement’ in how people vote in this seat, but there is also a lot of local resentment.
I think Bayswater is a good litmus test.
I really hope there is an exit poll today. Also Kos Samaras said yesterday on ABC he believes the late Early vote and Election Day vote will be significantly better for Labor as more millennials voted late. With a messy preference count and a lower election day turnout even if Labor wins a majority in the end we may not know tonight. I suspect in that scenario. It maybe Like the 2019 NSW, 2019 Cth and 2022 Federal where we knew who will form a government but not certain if it is a minority or majority. In such as case there maybe multiple projections at different stages of the night called by the network
1. Projection 1: Coalition cannot form a majority government.
2. Projection 2: Coalition cannot form a government hence Labor forms a government but not certain if it is a majority or minority.
@ Mark
I got a spam Liberal ‘Ditch Dan’ text this morning, and I’m in a marginal Lib electorate.
Have heard it said that up to 10% of voters say that they decide how they’ll vote while they’re in the queue. If that’s only half right, or even if it’s just an urban myth believed or feared by campaign organisers, then last minute messages, including handing out how to vote cards etc at/near polling places, don’t necessarily indicate that the candidate is considered to be in danger.
Given the low level of engaging topics throughout this campaign, this election might well hang on how the last minute attention-payers break. And habit/loyalty might be more important than anything else when it’s a toss up in their minds. Or how annoyed they are by spam texts ….
@Daniel T: “Lidia Thorpe isn’t popular in Victoria”.
Yeah nah, sorry, anecdotal accounts from your mates saying that she’s terrible doesn’t stand up to fact. If she wasn’t popular amongst her constituency and left leaning voters in general, she wouldn’t have led the Greens Victorian senate ticket earlier in the year to its highest vote in a decade.
As for predictions: lower house:
Greens to gain 2 (Northcote and Richmond). For all the talk of possible gains in Pascoe Vale, Preston, Footscray and Albert Park I don’t think that’ll materialise this time around but those seats will become winnable for the Greens in 2026.
Libs/Nats to gain half a dozen, mostly regains from unexpected losses in 2018.
Independents (including teals) to gain 3, 2 off Labor (Hawthorn and Melton) and 1 off the Libs (Brighton). Independents to also challenge in Werribee and Point Cook but not get over the line. The independent challenge in Mulgrave will amount to a fizzer and Andrews will retain it relatively easily.
Overall Labor majority, albeit reduced and with an expanded crossbench.
Upper house:
Greens to gain seats in each metro region except for Western Metro (total of 4, up from 1). Will fall short in the regions.
Animal Justice Party to hold in Western Vic and gain in Northern Vic (total of 2. Up from 1)
Victorian Socialists to gain in North and West Metro (+2)
SFFP to hold in Eastern Vic
Libs to gain back their second Northern Vic seat, and second Western Vic seat and second South East Metro seat (+3)
LDP to lose both their seats, Sustainable Australia and Transport Matters to also lose theirs. Bernie Finn, Catherine Cumming and Adem Somyurek will also hopefully be shown the door.
I am confused – on this site there is a Mick Quinlivan talking Labor up to the nth degree and a Michael Quinlivan saying the Libs will hold Kew (which would contradict Mick) – is it one and the same person having a bit of a lend or what?
The tricky part with doing a prediction is deciding what the starting point is. I’m going to use the pendulum on this website, i.e. Bayswater and Bass are treated as already being Liberal seats.
Lib gains: Hastings, Caulfield, Hawthorn, Nepean, Pakenham, Ripon.
Nat gain: Morwell.
Grn gains: Northcote, Richmond.
Ind gain: Mildura.
Final result: ALP 49 LIB 25 NAT 7 GRN 5 IND 2
Agreed Nixy
I got spam texts from the Libs at the federal election and that also pissed me off.
I don’t think it’s a viable campaign strategy to piss people off!
Upper house prediction:
Labor 16
LNP 13
Cross-bench (11):
Greens 4
Legalise Cannabis 2
Reason 1
AJP 1
SFF 1
DHJP 1
DLDP 1
While I believe the results of this election will be devastating for the Liberals, I believe there is a case that there is an anti-Dan Andrews momentum. The results of the 2022 election in booth seemed to mirror the 2018 election, with the same suburbs that swung to Labor in 2018 swinging against the liberals in 2022. If we accept that this separation from the liberals was already expressed, we are left with the one result which was not repeated in 2022, large swings to cooker parties in Labor heartland. If that it is because of Dan Andrews, then there may be a case for it being more potent in 2022 and being a serious challenge to Labor.
I think the swings in the west and the south east are inevitable – and I believe that that will be balanced out by smaller swings against the liberals in the east. I think that the newspoll suffers the same error as the one in 2018 before the elect, not that there was a polling error, but that the undecided will break towards labor again. I also think that the greens will get the same 3% swing that they got in the senate and that the vic socialists will gain on their impressive ground campaign
Mandatory point that I am not particularly good at election analysis .
Without further ado, here are my predictions.
Safe Labor -21
Bundoora, Ivanhoe. Aside from the massive margins, Jagajaga swung hard to labor federally.
Mill Park, Thomastown, Greenvale, Kalkaloo. The swings were fierce against labor here in the federal election, but they could take a swing of 20 percent and come out on top. Additionally no one seems to be expecting serious movement here and the swings were generally made to a swath of right-wing candidates from all sorts, many of whom are not running.
Kokorolt, Laverton. The swings against Labor here were also large in the federal, but again, no noise, no good right-wing parties, large margins
Bendigo East, Macedon, Ballarat, Wendouree. Labors vote has held up regionally recently. There is no reason for that to change
St Albans – Virginia Tachos, a councillor running as an independent, being preferenced by the greens makes this a chance of being interesting if she makes it to the 2pp, but labor is not as on the nose here as it is further west
Bendigo West, Solid chance of this being greens 2pp is the liberal vote tanks and the greens vote experiences a lift.
Mulgrave, Dadenong – Honestly, I wouldn’t be too shocked if Andrews lost his seat. It’s extremely unlikely, but he is a very polarizing figure, and this is the only vote where it’s actually for or against Dan Andrews. It would have to be Ian cook though, no way the cookers are in with a shot.
Sunbury, – Minor swings against labor have not provided the necessary backing to overturn these margins
Lara – Only interesting thing about this seat is that there’s a socialist alliance candidate disguised as an independent. In the odd chance that she overtakes the greens on primary votes, another odd chance of a 2pp switch.
Essendon, Williamstown – Both seats that I believe will be 2pp green. I would think them marginal in a 2pp for labor. A strong Victorian Socialists campaign will also help the greens out in both of these as well as liberal preferences. I only think that the abysmally low greens primary vote will lead to leakage from the preference deals and costs them any good chance of making up the 2pp difference.
Broadmeadows. Similar story to Essington and Williamston but for Victorian socialists. Theu are almost level with the greens and due to a strong ground game and no-one else caring, I believe they will get to a count of around 40-60 off a primary vote of around 14%.
Liberals path to majority government (aka also safe labor) – 17
Niddrie, Etham, Geelong, Eureka. Same case as Bundora, Laverton, Lara and Macedon respectively but smaller margins make them more vulnerable. Eureka seems to have an independent who is actually campaigning and has some following. Geelong has a high independent vote and it’ll be interesting to see if any of that sticks to the socialist.
Tarniet, Yan Yean, Sunbury – There has been some media focus on these seats. There was massive swings against labor in some booths, with the liberal primary vote increasing, rather than decreasing as it normally did in the areas with a liberal swing in 2022. However, this was not a uniform rule, and it is highly circumspect to imagine these sorts of swings.
Monbulk – With a smaller margin then many labor seats and a retiring member, there are worse seats for the liberals. The greens also have a realistic chance of getting into the 2pp as well.
Nare warrens (2), Cranbourne – If labor suburbs are coming out with baseball bats over covid I would expect them to come here. It’s quite astonishing it wasn’t here where the media is fretting over a backlash, given these areas swung pretty hard to one nation and UAP which resulted in a rise in primary for the libs
Oakleigh, Bentleigh, Clarinda, Mordialloc, Carrum, Frankston – I reckon these are the best chances for the libs if there is polling failure and they are looking at majority. All have been pretty marginal before and would be the kind of seats to swing back to Guy if he succeeds in convincing the public he is a credible opposition leader. Also interesting is the number of non-cooker but anti-dan Andrews independents running in these seats. Oakleigh is safer, but I have absolute unwavering trust in Neil Mitchel to work in the public interest.
Marginal Labor – 14
Ashwood, Box Hill, Ringwood – Nothing has shown me that the liberals have proven to these areas that they are a party that can be trusted with government. It wasn’t about a failed law and order campaign – it was about incompetence.
Morwell. It’s hard to predict where this goes, but 4% labor lead doesn’t lie. Both Tracy Lund (community independent) and Sharon Gibson (Former Mayor backed by cookers) are running professional campaigns with a realistic chance. This will not be decided until after election night
South Barwon – Reckon this is pretty safe for labor due to the result in Coringamite, but if there is genuine resentment against labor in the regions, this will probably fall
Ripon – There is probably an even split once incumbency is taken into perspective. Labor’s good regional result last election should make this a gain.
Neapan, Hastings – The first thing I think is to note that the momentum in flinders was split. This was prime teal area but the voice group and climate back different candidates, and then the teal pulled out due to citizenship issues. This meant that there was not any good anti-Morrison candidate and I think that showed. In other words, the swing to the libs was misleading. I reckon labor is still on the nose about the whole regional/non-regional thing, but I also reckon good local candidates and a swing to labor will do the trick here.
Croydon, Bayswater, Glen waverly, – The exact same thing as Ashwood. What have the liberals done to rectify their problems over the last 4 years. The answer is nothing. It takes an insanely small swing to knock these over and I don’t see how labor doesn’t achieve that swing in the east.
Elidon, Evalyn – I reckon both of these by small margins. My reasoning is that while both of these have reasons to lean away, the polls haven’t changed and I believe that the undecideds will break to labor given the abhorrent state of the liberal campaign
Polwarth – Labor is running a good campaign here; the margin is small, and the libs suffered here federally
Bass – I reckon with a sophomore surge and a good stae wide environment, Labor holds on.
Independent -13
Brighton, Sandringham. I think that the independents, while not supported by the greens, have a good enough ground game to succeed here. Felicity Rodrigo especially has been threated heavily by the liberals, and I thinks this speaks to the threat she poses. Labor will win these off a suffering liberal party if independants do not get ahead.
Mildura, Shepperton – Hard to see Shepperton losing any ground and Ali Cupper is popular, and will get an incumbent swing
Benambra – Jaqui Hawkins is in with a shot and seems to have a small army behind her. I’d rather be her then the liberals here.
Point Cook, Melton – Good independent candidates, with media attention, in disgruntled electorates.
Werribee – The indeoednat candidate is less known, but I believe Paul hopper can pull through. Additionally, Tim Pallas is not popular, and the libs have selected a local mayor.
Caulfield – Probably the weakest teal seat. However, the teal has deep ties to the Jewish community, started early and has okay campaign infrastructure. Expect this to be close
Mornington – This does have campaign infrastructure behind it and the teal here has been fairly successful, a large liberal lead will establish this as only winnable by the teal. Probably the best test of the much-vaunted independent sentiment in the Mornington Peninsula and whether people will go for Teals as more than a protest vote.
Hawthorn – I am not convinced in the slightest that Pesutto will win by default. Josh Frydenberg had a campaign juggernaut behind him and still lost. Frydenberg was the only person who could beat Dutton in a leadership contest and still lost. Frydenberg, by all accounts, had little ill will in the community – he still lost. The teal juggernaut is still active. Melissa Lowe has over 200 volunteers and the active support of Monique Ryan. She just needs to win over a majority of the people who backed Ryan, and this already happened in Shepperton before. I think the biggest indicator of this is how scared the Age, who want a functional liberal party, is. They’ve ran hit pieces on Kennedy and Lowe, the two challengers, and have run puff pieces on the greens (probably in the hopes they eclipse the teal) and Pesutto.
Kew – No brainer. Horrible local member, in a clear teal seat. If the Teals don’t win here, they simply don’t win anywhere.
Southwest Coast – Labors running dead and Carol Altmann’s running a very strong camping over the exact things one should be running a campaign over in a state election – infrastructure and services. The ground has already been laid there by the other Wannon Campaign and Carol Altmann seems to have considerable leverage in the community already
Greens – 9
Brunswick, Melbourne, Prahan – Liberal preferences have ensured that the greens win these, there’s just no contest, especially paired with the strong Victorian Socialists campaign and a very likely uptake in greens primary.
Richmond, Northcote – Same as above – Labor loses in either one due to Victorian Socialists, Greens doing much better or Preferences. Lidia Thorpe not being on the ticket and Richard Wynne retiring seal the deal
Albert Park – A low greens primary should’ve excluded them, but a strong Macnamara result, as well as active campaigning in the Max Chandler-Mather style, a retiring popular local member, a much better 2022 greens campaign overall and liberal preferences should close the difference. The independent seems to be taken seriously and may have a surprising effect,
Footscray, Pascoe vale – Again a number of factors mentioned above make these much more competitive, the least of which is a fantastic Victorian Socialists campaign. Kevin Bonham has already posted about Pascoe Vale, but if you look at the Footscray booths the swing in 2022 is insane – Victorian Socialists getting 7 percent in many booths without the extra 15,000 doors knocked as well.
Preston – I think that another incredibly robust Victorian Socialist campaign, Labors axing of the Preston markets, Liberal preferences, A greens primary vote increase and another shot by Gastano Greco against labor can make up the 20% of the vote needed. Getano greco is backed by many other parties and the save preston market group, on a good primary he could overtake greens or libs then make it to the 2pp. If this happens he’s got a good shot.
Nationals -6
Lowan, Murray Plain, Ovens Valley, Euroa and Gippsland south – The safest seats for any party this election.
Gippsland East – Ricky Muir has a chance if he can beat labor and greens primary vote combined. SFF got 7% in the upper house so it might not be impossible. Still, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Liberals – 7
Berwick, Pakenham – This is cooker central and I don’t see how labour doesn’t lose here. In Pakenham the local mayor is running a decent campaign and might take the discontent vote, but i doubt it.
Malvern, Warryndyte, Rowville – The liberal vote helps up here in the federal election as well. The margins are too wide for a small general swing to break these.
Bulleen – Probably the most vulnerable, the only place where it is possible to vote purely against Mattew Guy. Also this is the margin from the last time he was leader, to he is vulnerable here after yet more scandals and corruption.
Narracan – By default
The end result is Lab – 55 – Coalition 13 – Ind – 13 – Green – 9
After this I believe that the Vic Libs suffer the same fate as the WA Libs. Pushed out of the centre by Labor, with no organisation base to speak of, and no political offices to put people on paid positions, the political position will be, at least for the better part of a decade, be reduced to a 1.5 party system like in japan, where only 1 party is considered a ” party of government” and holds continual executive power.
Nimalan
I was interested in your comment about the Dingley bypass. I grew up nearby but haven’t lived in Victoria for many years.
As such, does this road now function as something like Bernard Salt’s “goat cheese curtain”, or the Latte Line in Sydney?
@ Ryoma
Yes i would say the Dingley Bypass is a divide between the SE Melbourne. Full details can be found here. The Dingley Bypass starts at Warrigal Road. West of Warrigal Road, there are no working class suburbs and this area can be considered the inner ring of suburbs. East of Warrigal Road between the Monash Freeway and the Dingley Bypass we can see what i describe as SE Manufacturing belt centred on the Dandenong rail corridor. This wedge tends to be very working class and contain some of the poorest parts of Melbourne. This corridor ends around Fountain Gate Shopping Centre after which it becomes a combination of affluent suburbs such as Berwick/Beaconsfield as well as Growth areas like Pakenham/Officer. With respect to Bayside suburbs, Beyond Mentone historically until we get to Mount Eliza, suburbs such as Carrum/Seaford were not as desirable. However, as people get priced out of coastal suburbs closer to the city these suburbs are becoming wealthier. Yes it can be compared to the Latte Line/Red Rooster line in Sydney
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/clarinda2022/comment-page-1: See some other comparisons i made here.
Wow overcooked the independents prediction hard.
Independents were almost completely wiped out despite appearing in multiple 2CP matchups.
Definitely predicted the huge swing in the outer-suburban fringes and the North-West of Melbourne towards Coalition. But much like the Federal election, the swing was insurmountable in these Labor heartlands.
Greens did well but are now receiving disappointing postal and pre-poll votes.
Not my finest hour.
I think our little community here can be collectively proud of predicting that seats like Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Bayswater would stay ALP. We got the vibe about right. The comments about Nepean here convinced me away from a dud prediction. However I think most of us wrote Pakenham off (which Labor didn’t), and ignored Croydon – both seats are still in play at the time of writing.
What I failed to see which some commenters brought up is that 2018 was a low point for Liberals in affluent inner city areas (demise of Turnbull), so Liberals wouldn’t face a 2nd big swing against. This is what killed Albert Park for the Greens and kept several others blue.
I got bamboozled by how well Teals did federally. I could sort of see that they weren’t all they were cracked up to be in the Goldstein overlaps, and I posted once that in a competitive seat like Caulfield they might end up with similar vote to Jo Dyer in federal Boothby. But in this thread I fell into the hype, believing they’d be the preferred outlet for centre to left leaning voters in those areas. Instead they seem to have been an outlet for Liberal voters to express displeasure with the direction of the party but ultimately preference them over Labor.
My earlier predictions were that Greens were running a lackluster campaign and didn’t put the work in to win much more than Richmond. Those were more accurate than my starry eyed ones in this thread that they’d win all their easy targets, forgot about exclusion order issues in Albert Park, and they’d be a chance in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray. They gave Labor a scare in 3 otherwise extremely safe seats but now have to deal with the awkwardness of declaring a green-slide over flipping potentially just one seat (though absents might get Northcote back in the Green column).
Anyway, it’s now “federal implications” time! Trying to see what the media narrative will be:
* Teals might be one term wonders. Any assumptions that they’d all retain their seats easily once elected got a splash of cold water, and some of them might start moving right (or being told that they should). Might also see former incumbents like Tim Wilson try to win their old seats back in 2025 over this.
* Greens on the other hand seem pretty solid. They raised expectations a bit too much in the end but can’t generally be seen as “underperforming” when they are a much bigger presence on the electoral map. Strong 2006 vibes when several seats appeared as Labor vs Green. Greens might get more media play now.
* The fact that Daniel Andrews got 4 more years probably won’t come up as much as the fact he lost ground in the Red Wall (while the wall remained intact). In terms of timing this is similar to the 2014 SA election (which Labor won unexpectedly), so I don’t think it’s too soon for federal drag, and it really is a commendable result. But I don’t think there’ll be much of that in the media.
* Morwell! Labor had a 4% margin on paper, big ticket announcements like the SEC and Commonwealth Games, and by all accounts a good candidate. I felt daft for not seeing it. But “coal community = Nats” predictions panned out. Matt Canavan will have a field day. This is a global issue and I haven’t seen any “just transition” narrative work yet. Morwell is another data point.
* Not federal, but if I were Dom Perrottet I’d be more confident I can retain in March now. Nothing amazing on the ALP vs Lib front. But teal threats can be seen off in the Eastern Suburbs and North of the Harbour, Nats might win back Wagga, the Shooter seats, and Lismore, and it’s possible to make further inroads in Western Sydney. NSW 2023 will be one to watch.
@John
I even went back and watched the 2018 state election broadcast and Turnbull’s removal was the major talking point of the night, responsible for the swing in the east and sand-belt. It is clear that Morrison was reviled in parts of Victoria in which Turnbull was very popular because he was the face of his removal.
That was part of the success of the teals. They provided and outlet for those disaffected by the knifing of Turnbull to voice their displeasure.
Now that the face of the Turnbull knifing has been removed, it seems that their disaffection is waning, and the teals no longer have their same purpose. There might be a decent segment that never return to the coalition while teals exist.
What is not clear at this point is whether the federal election be the high-watermark for the teals. Or maybe the teals is more so a federal election phenomena when Coalition isn’t being led by a progressive liberal candidate.
I’m definitely stunned that there’s going to be a huge drop in major party vote and yet there may be *zero* independents in the house of representatives! Guess that just goes to show how the circumstances of each seat are what’s critical and that voters can turn away from incumbent independents if they feel they aren’t delivering, or that the major parties are willing to address their problems.
I had no specific information on those rural seats so I just guessed the “majors bad” vibe would reelect them. But I’m not surprised to be totally wrong there.
On the other hand, I did guess the metropolitan teals to flop. I believe that can be easily explained by the lack of Liberal government (particularly Scomo’s) causing backlash and urgency to push the Liberal MPs out, as well as the fact that most of them were simply riding the coattails of the federal election without having laid much groundwork in the months beforehand for a run.
However, I do think the rule of “2nd term independent will increase margin” is still generally accurate. Ali Cupper may have failed to be reelected but her seat had already become notional National. The extent of the swing towards the Nationals appears relatively small in the context of this election, where every other rural seat firmed up massively for the Nationals. So it may not be a guarantee for the federal teals but they can expect to receive an improvement as long as they don’t make large blunders or the Coalition has a major turnaround in its problem with small-l Liberal suburbs and educated women (unlikely).
@Nimalan
Thank you very much for that description. I agree with what you say historically, but I suspect that the demographics of the coastal areas has now shifted dramatically. The areas further inland have stayed what they were – i.e. with a more industrial feel and diverse population.
I think the results for the Greens are quite poor. In a big picture sense, Labor’s statewide primary vote dropped -5.8%, Liberals dropped -0.7%, yet the Greens’ primary vote only increased by 0.3% at the time of writing. It shows the Greens failed to capitalise on the disaffected Labor vote.
We can see this at the electorate level too. In Richmond at the time of writing, the Green primary vote barely moved (+0.7%). In Footscray, the Green vote increased marginally by +2.0% to 22.2% despite a large -10.6% swing against Labor’s primary vote. Similar stories can be observed in Pascoe Vale and Preston where the Green vote didn’t improve much and/or failed to capitalise on a drop in Labor’s primary.
The fact the Victorian Greens preselected candidates far too late was likely a contributing factor. Looking at candidate Facebook pages, their candidates for Footscray and Pascoe Vale were only preselected in early September and their Albert Park candidate in late September. Richmond (February) Northcote (April) and Preston (July) were slightly better timed but not substantially.
In the federal seats the Greens won or nearly won, they preselected almost a year in advance of the May 2022 election – Griffith (March 2021), Ryan (~April 2021), Brisbane (May 2021), Macnamara (June 2021). I am not sure how the Victorian Greens think they can build a grassroots movement on the ground by only preselecting candidates a few months (if that) before polling day.
Some might say that the Greens have been doing poorly because Victorian Labor under Dan Andrews advances many left-wing policies, which gives the Greens little room or relevance. However, I would disagree with this assessment. In a number of Greens target seats, the Labor vote and Green vote went down and the Victorian Socialists (VS) were the beneficiaries. In Footscray, the VS vote was up +9.9%, Northcote +6.8%, Melbourne +5.7%, Richmond +4.8%. VS even outpolled the Greens in St Albans. It’s hard to make the argument that the Greens can’t do well with a progressive Labor government when a more left-wing party like the Victorian Socialists is managing to gain ground at both Labor and Greens’ expense.
Overall I think the Victorian Greens could have done a fair bit better especially if they had have been more organised in selecting candidates and with their ground game/strategy. Perhaps these poor results are symptoms of greater structural problems inside the Victorian Greens as we have seen with poor results at the Batman by-election in 2018, the 2018 state election and recent allegations of transphobia within the the party.
@ Ryoma, correct the Coastal areas have changed dramatically and i believe if the Victorian Liberals were strong they can entrench themselves here similar to what the NSW Liberals have done along the Georges River (Oatley, East Hills). i do believe the trajectories of the SE inland manufacturing suburbs and the Bayside are now very different. For this reason i think the Division of Issacs should be redrawn to reflect this to exclude Dandenong, most of Keysborough and if needed include East Bentleigh from Hotham. This shows how natural geography have determined the destiny of suburbs.
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