Who would’ve won without GVTs?

We now have an increasing sample size of elections conducted using single transferable vote with above-the-line voting but no group voting tickets: NSW since 2003, the Senate since 2016, and South Australia’s upper house since 2018.

This makes it possible to analyse the results of the last four Victorian state elections (since PR was introduced in the upper house) and make some guesses about who would have likely been elected without GVTs. Antony Green wrote a great blog post a few months ago which ran through the dynamics of how the Senate electoral system usually works: it’s rare that a candidate leading on primary votes is overtaken, unlike under the GVT system when this happens all the time. This isn’t to suggest that I assume that preferences would have no impact: in some cases when a candidate has a slight lead over a candidate who has potential for more preferences, I pick the candidate who wasn’t in the lead.

There has been a growing trend of results under GVTs varying from what would have likely happened in their absence. I only think one seat would have come out differently in 2006, one in 2010, and six in 2014. I estimate that nine out of 40 seats went to a different winner in 2018.

As the number of minor parties has been increasing, and they have become smarter at swapping preferences and locking out the bigger parties from preference flows, GVTs have come to have a much bigger impact on who wins the final seat/s in each region.

I've linked to my old upper house regional guides, which include the vote totals for each party and a description of the late stages of each count.

2006

In 2006, the first election using proportional representation for the upper house, the field of minor parties was much smaller and only one candidate outside of Labor, Liberal, Nationals and Greens was elected.

The DLP's Peter Kavanagh polled 2.66% and managed to win the final seat in Western Victoria. He managed just 0.16 quotas, while Labor and the Greens both polled about 0.52 quotas. While the Greens could've theoretically won this seat, I'm assuming Labor would have won with most of the remaining votes available as preferences coming from the right.

This would have given Labor half the seats in the chamber.

2010

The Coalition won the slimmest possible absolute majority in both houses in 2010, with no candidates elected outside of the three larger blocs. Still, there was one seat which would have likely changed hands without GVTs.

In Western Metropolitan region, the Greens won the final seat with 0.72 quotas, with Labor missing out on 0.81 quotas. The group voting tickets funnelled almost every Sex Party preference to the Greens and Family First and DLP preferences to the Liberal Party, and at the end of that process Labor fell just 0.03 quotas short of the Greens. Without GVTs, I'd expect some of those preferences would have gone to Labor instead, or exhausted, and Labor would have won.

2014

There was a noted step-change in 2014, with a lot more parties running in each region and a much higher minor party vote in the upper house.

Four minor parties apart from the Greens won seats, with the Shooters winning two.

I believe the final seat in six out of eight regions would have gone to someone else in the absence of GVTs. This would have wiped out the other small minor parties.

The races I think would have changed:

• Eastern Metropolitan - Greens won with 0.63 quotas, defeating Labor with 0.72. Left-wing minor party preferences flowed to the Greens overwhelmingly, but I don't think that would have been so clear otherwise.
• Eastern Victoria - The Shooters and Fishers won the fifth seat off 0.15 quotas, overtaking four others, including the Coalition on 2.49 quotas and the Greens on 0.5 quotas. The Shooters wouldn't have stood a chance off that vote, and it seems like the mix of preferences leans to the right and thus would have favoured the Coalition over the Greens.
• Northern Metropolitan - The Sex Party won the fifth seat with a primary vote of 0.17 quotas, overtaking the third Labor candidate who led on a primary vote of 0.42 quotas. I can't see how the Sex Party could have stayed in the count long enough to beat Labor for that final seat.
• Northern Victoria - The Shooters and Fishers won the fifth seat off a primary vote of 0.21 quotas, far behind the third Coalition candidate on 0.47 quotas and the Greens candidate on 0.46 quotas. I expect the Coalition would have won in the absence of GVTs, with the larger pool of right-wing preferences favouring them over the Greens.
• Western Metropolitan - The fifth seat was won by the Democratic Labor Party, off a primary vote of 0.15 quotas, overtaking the third Labor candidate on 0.64 quotas. I expect Labor would have won in the absence of GVTs.
• Western Victoria - Vote 1 Local Jobs achieved victory off the lowest vote up to this point in Victorian electoral history, winning the fifth seat off just 0.08 quotas. The Greens were leading with 0.55 quotas, and I expect they would've won in the absence of GVTs.

2018

The 2018 result looked very different compared to the outcome in the absence of GVTs. By my reckoning nine seats would have come out differently. In the absence of GVTs, almost all of the small parties would have been wiped out, but the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers would have actually won a second seat. The other eight seat changes would have benefited the three biggest forces, in particular the Greens and the Coalition.

I'll run through all eight regions, although only seven regions saw a GVT-caused result:

• Eastern Metropolitan - The Greens were leading on primary votes with 0.54 quotas, but the seat was eventually won by Transport Matters on 0.04 quotas. TMP would have had no chance without GVTs, and I think the Greens would have won, with the help of 0.2 quota Labor surplus and over 0.3 quotas between Animal Justice, Reason, Voluntary Euthanasia and Sustainable Australia voters.
• Eastern Victoria - This is the only region where I expect the same outcome without GVTs. The Greens lead with 0.4 quotas, with the Shooters next on 0.3 quotas. There is a substantial amount of minor right-wing preferences so I think the Shooters would have still overtaken the Greens without GVTs.
• Northern Metropolitan - Four seats were decided very clearly: two Labor quotas, and the Greens and Liberals on about one quota. For the fifth seat, Labor led on 0.56 quotas, but Reason managed to win off 0.2 quotas, overtaking two other minor parties with a higher primary vote. This wouldn't have happened without GVTs and I don't expect anyone could have chased down Labor.
• Northern Victoria - Only two seats in this region were decided with a full quota, with Labor on 1.9 and the Coalition on 1.87. Following them in the race for fifth place was the Shooters on 0.47 and the Greens on 0.39. Instead the last two seats went to the parties next in the rankings, with Derryn Hinch's Justice Party (0.29) and the Liberal Democrats (0.23). Labor just managed to squeak into the third seat. I think the Coalition and the Shooters would have won the last two seats in the absence of GVTs. Incidentally this is evidence for how GVTs don't help minor parties build strength over time - the Shooters used their incumbency from 2014 to build their vote in 2018, but that made them a less attractive preference partner and they thus lost their seat.
• Southern Metropolitan - This one is clear cut. The Greens were leading with 0.81 quotas for the fifth seat, but were overtaken by Sustainable Australia with 0.08 quotas. The Greens would have easily won without GVTs.
• South Eastern Metropolitan - The Liberal Party was leading in the race for the fifth seat on 0.74 quotas, but were overtaken by the Liberal Democrats, who were ranked ninth on 0.05 quotas. There's no doubt the Liberals would have won without GVTs.
• Western Metropolitan - The Greens were leading the race for the fifth seat with 0.52 quotas, with Derryn Hinch's Justice Party behind on 0.41 quotas, and the Hinch party went on to win. I'm not sure how this would have ended, as this vote was about as high as any of the small parties polled and went on to win a seat. I still think the Greens were more likely to win.
• Western Victoria - The second Coalition candidate was in fourth place with 1.795 quotas, with the Greens in fifth on 0.449 quotas, but both were overtaken by Derryn Hinch's Justice Party (0.27) and Animal Justice (0.17). This wouldn't have happened without GVTs.

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