I last updated my Victorian state election candidate list at the start of October, so it seemed about time for another update, about two weeks out from nominations closing.
You can see the full list here, and candidate lists including websites have been posted in the election guide.
The list included 296 lower house candidates at the start of the month, but it has now grown to 422. This compares to 507 in 2018.
A majority of these candidates are women, with 219 women, 202 men and one non-binary candidate. That’s 51.9% women, compared to 36.3% women. Only 184 women ran in 2018, so even if no further women are nominated, the list already includes 35 more than in 2018.
There are Labor, Greens and Coalition candidates in most seats: 79 Labor, 80 Greens and 92 Coalition across 86 seats.
Amongst the other parties, there are 66 Animal Justice candidates, 22 Victorian Socialists, 21 Freedom Party candidates, 7 Liberal Democrats, 6 Reason candidates and one member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. There are also 48 independent candidates.
A number of these parties have a substantial majority of women candidates in their ranks. The Greens have nominated 51% women, with Labor on 58% and Animal Justice on a whopping 79%. Indeed if Animal Justice had nominated an even number of men and women, that alone would be enough to produce a male majority amongst the full field. 60% of independents are women, as well as half the Reason and Socialist candidates.
The right-wing parties are still dominated by men, with women making up 29% of Coalition candidates, with the Liberal Democrats and Freedom Party also nominating men for more than 60% of their candidacies.
With right-wing parties predominantly nominating men while left-wing parties have a lean towards women, the fact that there are three parties of the left nominating a large field of candidates explains why a majority of candidates are women.
I did a quick analysis of likely gender of winning candidates by including the top two candidates for seats with a margin of under 5% and the top candidate in other seats. This simple model suggested 37 women on track to win, 37 men on track to win, and 14 seats where a man and a woman are both competitive.
Analysing Legislative Council candidate lists is more complex, since for big parties there are multiple candidates running seriously, but candidates not running for the first seat for smaller parties generally have no prospect of winning and are only there to fill out the ticket.
I now have at least the first candidate for 84 groups across the eight regions. This ranges from 8 groups in Eastern Victoria to 12 in North Eastern Metro.
There are seven parties that have announced candidates in all eight regions: Animal Justice, Labor, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Liberal/Nationals (or just Liberal in urban regions), United Australia and Victorian Socialists.
Of these 84 lead candidates, 36 of them are women and 48 are men, but the lead candidates for the bigger parties are more likely to be women. The Labor lead candidates split 4-4 (although this includes Jaala Pulford, who retired after I finished this list), Greens split 5-3 women, and the Coalition who also have nominated five women at the top of the ticket.
That’s it on candidate numbers. I’ll be back next week with some other analysis, but I probably won’t do any more candidate updates until nominations close on November 11. I will then do one more collection of candidate websites and do a final update, and after that candidate lists will be closed.
There are some candidates you are missing (found most on facebook)
George Georgiou (IND) Brunswick
Damian Willis (IND) Carrum
Harley McDonald-Eckersall (AJP) Croydon
Kammy Cordner Hunt (IND) Eildon
Alan Williams (DLP) Footscray
Michael Deverala (DLP) Kororoit
Michael Wirth (DLP) Laverton
Glenn Milne (IND) Mildura
Joseph Toscano (IND) Mulgrave
Laura Rees (AJP) Narracan
Jane Byrne (DLP) Niddrie
April Clarke (Reason) Northcote
Parashos Kioupelis (IND) Oakleigh
Michael Freeman (DLP) Point Cook
Denes Borsos (IND) Polwarth
Michael McCluskey (IND) South-West Coast
Mark Hobart (DLP) St Albans
Peter Bayliss (DLP) Sunbury
Jakueline Radovani (DLP) Sydenham
Aijaz Moinuddin (IND) Tarneit
Heni Kwan (IND) Werribee
Catherine Breakwell (DLP) Werribee
Rochelle Fisher (DLP) Williamstown
Are One Nation actually running. Their website says they are but there is no evidence of any candidates. Does anybody know the story?
UAP has thrown up a couple of interesting candidates for LC.
-Geoff Shaw (yes, that one, former Frankston LNP/IND MP) is running as lead candidate in Nth Vic
-Ralph Babet for S-E Metro, nothing like keeping it in the family.
I’m still surprised to see Aidan McLindon having a crack down here in Vic, but I guess he was inspired by Rob Hulls.
Thanks Ben for the update and interesting to pick-up on AJP as I saw they were proud of that on their website “At this election, we expect to stand more women as candidates for election than any major party in history!” Will be interesting to see if this attracts more % from those turned off by the recent federal Greens shenanigans or if there isn’t an appealing teal, to park their vote with AJP first.
@Redistributed – I guess we’ll find out at close of nominations as several of the smaller parties are hard to find out if they’re running (and then where and who). Just had a quick look at the websites and note the following:
AJP, HAP, LDP, SUS, UAP and VS websites have candidates listed with DHJP listing their two MPs, FFP & Reason have listed just their lead candidates so far. SFF & DLP has a section on candidates but is blank. TMP seems to be fielding a few – but not listed on website yet with candidates to be revealed at a meet the MP this Wednesday. Agree, couldn’t find any on the PHON page. As for predicting the LC…good-luck!
The AJP don’t appear to be running (or have not yet preselected) in 3 of the Geelong region seats. Odd given Meddick is based in the region. Their Corangamite candidate is running in Western Metro.
@Politics Obsessed
Not Ralph Babet, it’s his brother Matt. From memory he also ran unsuccessfully at the federal election.
@Expat – yes oops! I mixed them up… that’s what I get when I post late!
So the lower house I get at 499 candidates… think this election will easily pass 2018’s number of 507. (Thanks for ABC, Tallyroom, Justin comments above and most of the party websites) I get the following:
ALP – 88 Candidates (ie all electorates)
LIB – 82 Candidates (missing: Essendon [ALP] Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Lowan, Murray Plains, Ovens Valley [NAT])
GRN – 85 Candidates (missing: Greenvale, Kalkallo [ALP] Shepparton [IND])
AJP – 73 Candidates
Freedom Party Victoria [FPV] – 25
Victorian Socialists [VS] – 22
The Nationals [Nats] – 11(coalition total being 93)
Democratic Labour Party [DLP] – 10
Reason Party – 8
Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] – 7
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers [SFF] – 5
One Nation Party [ONP] – 4
New Democrats [ND] – 3
Health Australia Party [HAP] – 3
Companions & Pets Party [CPP] – 1
Independents [IND](& others) – 72
Some notes:
-Point Cook and Werribee have the most candidates at 12 each. The least is a measly 3 in Murray Plains.
-Surprised SFF is running in Narre Warren North!
-ND really has consolidated a following in the Western Subs with 3 lower candidates, smart as increases visibility and chance for Kaushaliya Vaghela (former ALP) MLC to get re-elected.
-Gareth Ward really has to be one of the most unfortunate candidate names…luckily it’s not NSW.
-Socialist Alliance [SA] is running 4 candidates unofficially as independents in Broadmeadows, Geelong, Lara and Pascoe Vale.
-It really shows how more left wing VIC is compared to say right wing QLD. AJP in VIC is ONP to QLD, outside the 3 majors (ALP, LIB/NAT, GRN) a solid effort for AJP to run in almost all seats.
-No idea why there are 3 IND running in Mildura and might dilute vote for Ali, still reckon she gets in by a whisker.
-Surprised Libs decided to run in Richmond. They really are the odd one out in a field that includes ALP, GRN, AJP, Reason and VS.
-And I think Broadmeadow has to be the most left leaning seat in the country. With left choices of ALP, GRN, AJP, Reason, VS and a SA IND.
And finally, prize for the best ***retro*** website goes to Amanda Mead [IND] for Lowan. That colour scheme brings back 90s nostalgia.
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