Results prediction open thread

1. As a Canadian, originally a Brit, living in British Columbia I am going to be interested in seeing if the polls have over-called Labour and under-called LNP and Green. That’s the case for Europe and I wonder whether part of the play is wondering whether to put a new leader in power at such an unstable time internationally. Maybe you are further away from Europe and Russia. LNP/Coalition will lose their majority, but not convinced Labour will get one, but perhaps the cross-bench will expand…as those are some awfully low first preference numbers for the Coalition and Labour. It will depend on the first preference flows after the count is complete. I will be watching Ryan, Griffith, Brisbane and Kooyong, as well as the ACT Senate race.

2. On Dutton/Frydenburg, if Frydenburg keeps his seat but there is still somewhat a wipeout of ‘moderate’ Liberal MPs, there’s certainly no guarantee he would win the leadership. In fact if MPs such as Katie Allen, Bridget Archer, Fiona Martin, Tim Wilson and Dave Sharma lose their seats – and I’m predicting that all 5 of them have more chance of losing their seat than Frydenburg – then where will Frydenburg’s support come from in a leadership ballot?

   If you add other possible losses like Trent Zimmerman and Trevor Evans to that list, Frydenburg’s prospects become even more slim – but I’d tip Frydenburg to lose his seat before Zimmerman & Evans do anyway.

3. I personally think the anger on the ground against Morrison is much more than the polls are picking up.

   The rush on pre-polls and postals to me suggests that many people have already made up their minds about the current government – and if I was a sitting LNP MP in a marginal seat, I would be very worried about that.

   My prediction:

   LABOR to gain Swan, Pearce, Robertson, Reid, Bass, Braddon, Boothby, Chisholm, Longman

   LINEBALL Flynn, Bennelong, Leichardt, Sturt, Casey, Deakin, Lindsay, Hasluck, Banks, Page, Mackellar

   LNP to gain Hunter, Hughes (from Craig Kelly)

   IND to gain Kooyong, North Sydney, Curtin, Goldstein, Wentworth

   GREENS to retain Melbourne – possibly win one of (or all three of) Higgins, Brisbane and Ryan

   All current sitting Independents to retain their seats (Indi, Waringah, Kennedy, Clark and Mayo)

   I think it all depends on how back the swings are in each state. A BIG swing in WA to Labor could put a few extra seats in jeopardy. If the LNP vote cools from its inflated 2019 result in Queensland, then seats like Dickson and Petrie might come into play.

4. Mr Greenman stay up all night. Nothing is overstated. Lots of new Independents and a clear Labor majority with the new leader heading to Japan on Tuesday ( Quad meeting ). No wasting time when you are victorious. This is well overdue.

5. My predictions.
   NSW
   ALP gains Banks Bennelong Robertson Page
   lose Hunter
   Teales gain
   Wentworth Mackellar North Sydney

   Vic ALP gain Chisolm
   Teales gain Kooyong Goldstein
   Green gain Higgins

   Qld
   ALP gain Brisbane Bonner Bowman Forde
   Greens gain Ryan

   Others
   ALP gain Pearce Swan Boothby Bass
   Greens get Canberra

6. A comment on the low primary vote translating into hung parliament talk in the media….

   I think that is way overstated in a preferential voting system like ours, and that there is very little correlation.

   There are only a relatively small number of seats – those with viable third parties like the “teal” seats and the Greens targets – where the low primary votes will make a difference. But even among those seats, I think the impact is minimal because looking at the “teal” seats for example, they are seats that Labor could never have won anyway, and therefore a low Labor primary vote will have no impact on Labor’s seat count.

   Other than that, in the vast majority of seats it doesn’t matter if both the Liberals & Labor have primary votes even in the low 30s; as they long as they still finish #1 and #2 it won’t do anything to increase the likelihood of a crossbench.

   And those contests with independents were already known to be possible cross-bench gains even if the majors had strong national primary votes.

7. Not actually a prediction, but a comment on the VoteCompass 2-dimensional distribution (showing average place on social-values axis and economic-values axis of respondents from each electorate) at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/which-electorates-are-most-left-and-right-leaning-vote-compass/101078018 a longgg way down the page. In each list, they’re listed from left to right by economic values.

   Lib-held electorates above the median for social progressiveness: Boothby, Higgins, Kooyong, Wentworth

   Lib-held electorates on or only slightly below the median for social progressiveness: Page, Bass, Robertson, Cowper, Casey, Chisholm, Flinders, Reid, Deakin, Ryan, Brisbane, North Sydney, Goldstein

   Gee. you might almost be tempted to base a prediction on that mightn’t you?

8. From an observational point at numerous prepolls in SEQ it sure does feel like the tide has gone out for the LNP this election. The 58% 2pp at the 2019 election is all but gone and is much closer to 50/50. Brisbane, Ryan and Longman flip to ALP. Dickson retained by LNP with a margin less than 1%.

   Probably speaking out of my pocket here but I’ve taken the $7.00 on offer with a certain betting agency – coalition winning 56-60 seats.

9. Labor minority or small majority government supported by teals in a pure, soft touch, confidence and supply agreement. (Too tired to do the maths on seat numbers)

   I want Zoe Daniel and Monique Ryan to win, and I think they will (others will be closer but there will be a healthy teal contingent with even just those 2 and incumbents). But I think the Liberal lines about them being fake independents is on the money. There’s a reason Labor don’t mind teals getting prominence but are trying to swoop in on LNP seats targeted by Greens.

   Labor will have a pretty disappointing “winning” night due to small target strategy. They lose Canberra and Griffith to Greens. But Greens and teals will see the LNP government off (if Labor gains aren’t enough).

   Labor’s gains will be “suburban” seats – Reid, Robertson (keeps bellwether status), Chisholm, Swan, Pearce, Boothby. Maybe Deakin, Hasluck, Bass, Banks, Longman or Leichhardt, but probably not. They may also pip Greens at the post in Brisbane and Higgins (definitely not Ryan – that seat is LNP vs GRN).

   The ultimate message is that the small target strategy and pro fossil fuel policy was for nothing. Labor will barely make a dent in Capricornia, Flynn, Dawson and Herbert. Hunter et al will be decided by Newcastle suburbs (Newcastle will swing to Labor, but coal towns won’t), and I think Labor retains. Labor could have run much further left and won the exact same seats.

   Morrison’s loss won’t be “humiliating” for him. He and Alex Hawke achieve their secondary goals of moving the party right and setting up a potential realignment, and Labor won’t be sure of a 2nd term by any means.

   That looks like Keneally retaining Fowler for Labor, but with an embarrassing enough swing against her to be shuffled to the back bench. Labor may lose Macquarie and Parramatta (Greens will save Labor in Gilmore) and go backwards in their working class suburban “safe” seats. They will hold steady in outer suburban QLD (already at a low point), and SA/WA (Labor are stronger there), but go backwards in NSW and Vic outer suburbs.

   Greens will have an excellent night in seats where teals aren’t running (including seats they didn’t target). I think they win Richmond, Griffith, Canberra (Liberal open tickets), Higgins, Ryan and Brisbane.

   They are beaten by Monique Ryan in Kooyong but still get high teens/low 20s (Labor on the other hand collapses there). Macnamara has exclusion order issues that keep it in Labor hands (Libs go from 1st to 3rd). Greens do well in Cooper (not Wills) but Liberal preferences keep Kearney in. They easily get another full Senate ticket up from Teal house, Green Senate voters.

   ACT Senate will have a long postcount but I’m predicting status quo after all. Greens will just edge out Pocock (Rubenstein will only get 5% or so), and Pococks preferences will be strong to Greens, but Zed keeps his head above water yet again.

   QLD Senate fairly similar result to last time but Labor 2 just beats out Liberal 3, and Hanson is reelected (2-2-1-1).

   In general: Affluent voters swing left, though it looks Teal or Green unless there’s a strong Labor seat campaign. Labor doesn’t win back many of the voters they lost in 2019, but the affluent left swing wins Labor the election (one way or another).

10. Forgot Greenway as a potential ALP loss (haven’t been following that seat closely).

11. On the realignment, the Liberals will be looking for a leader or front benchers who are non-white (but white passing?), socially conservative, very religious and seem more like a shop owner than a banker. They may not be in parliament yet.

    Then they will start to make serious moves on Western Sydney and outer suburbs of other cities (“no” voting areas), while hoping to win back teals (either confidence and supply, or win the seats back) solely on economic issues.

12. Ah man John please don’t give me hope

13. Is it possible to sense the mood or potential swing of the electorate?

    We always hear from MPs and candidates “voters have been telling me that they want [insert their parties’ policies]” or “they don’t want [opponent] as the PM”. Is there any truth in them?

    What about how voters react to the volunteers? Or ratio and number of party volunteers at polling centres?

14. 2022 Australian Election prediction

    Coalition (61) def. by Labor (79)

    Independent:
    Kooyong (Monique Ryan)
    Goldstein (Zoe Daniel)
    Warringah (Zali Steggall)
    Wentworth (Allegra Spender)
    Indi (Helen Haines)
    Clark (Andrew Wilkie)

    Greens:
    Melbourne (Adam Bandt)
    Brisbane (Stephen Bates)
    Griffith? (Max Chandler-Mather)

    Others:
    Kennedy (Bob Katter)
    Mayo (Rebekah Sharkie)

15. Predictions very difficult.
    Odds
    25% LNP majority or near-majority government (this assumes the polls are wrong).
    60% Minority Labor government
    15% Bare majority Labor government

    Feedback from my time at the pre-polls in Tasmania. 80% of voters have already decided and won’t take any how-to-votes. Hardly anyone taking Liberal how-to-votes but I suspect that many Liberal decided voters don’t want to embarrass themselves or don’t need guidance. Lots of lower socio-economic group angry white males. Some of their female partners at least willing to consider voting for progressive minor party candidates. Very strong personal support for Jacqui Lambie, which will translate to votes for relative unknown Tammy Tyrell. Most young people have already decided, many seem depressed, but only taking how-to-votes from progressive minor party candidates.

16. Prediction:
    Labor gains Robertson, Brisbane, Boothby, Swan, Leichhardt, Pearce and Reid
    Independent gains Goldstein

17. So the last pollster out of the gate has the Labour primary down two points and the Greens and “Teal” Independents up a point each on first preferences and the 2PP score has tightened from 46:54 to 47:53. Hung Parliament appears in the offing, but since I am not on the ground I’ll make no prediction as to exact numbers…other than to say the cross-bench is going to grow with LNP or Labour not getting a majority. Who gets the swing seats is absolutely going to depend on who is on first and second, and that as Roy Morgan points out is all in the crosshairs. Logic would suggest that if you shift your vote from LNP to Independent, and they come third, you are not going to switch back to LNP. Also if you vote Independent it means you have not voted Labour, so your obvious last choice is Green. Going to be a long few days until all the postal votes are counted. Twelve Green Senate seats with ACT on the bubble. Further if ON and UAP first preference vote is down then that is not good for LNP. Queensland, especailly Brisbane seats, is where I am most interested to watch. The fact that Labour has focused on those seats at the end of the campaign says something, in that I believe Labour is fighting a two front war of defeat the Coalition, but stop the Greens from growing.

18. -Canberra will almost certainly not fall to the Greens, there is around a 2% chance of that happening.
    -the Greens will likely only win Melbourne.

19. I predict Labor will gain: Chisholm, Reid, Robertson, Swan, Pearce, Boothby, Bass, Braddon, Leichardt.

    Too close to call: Deakin, Casey, Gilmore, Longman, Hasluck, Nicholls, Brisbane, Ryan.

    Teal independent gains: Goldstein, Kooyong, Wentworth

    Labor to win 81 seats at a guess.

20. Bennelong and Higgins also too close to call tomorrow night

21. Prediction followed by expected range:

    Lab 77 (72-82)
    Oth 7 (6-9)
    Coalition (60-73)

    At an individual seat level, there are very few that I’m willing to bet are cast on wins for Labor:
    Swan
    Chisholm
    then there is a category where I expect them to win:
    Reid
    Brisbane
    Boothby
    Bass
    Braddon
    Pearce

    Then you get into lineball category:
    Bennelong
    Robertson
    Leichardt
    Longman
    Ryan
    Higgins
    Pearce

    Then outside chance category:
    Dickson
    Forde
    Sturt
    Hasluck
    Casey

    LNP to be the underdog but in with a chance in:
    Lingiari
    Hunter
    Lyons

    Overall, I think a narrow Labor win but anywhere from hung parliament to a comfortable Labor win is possible.

22. Reposting from PB

    Final prediction: LAB 85 COAL 54 GRN 1 OTH 11

    No seat changes from Labor to Coalition, current crossbench to retain all seats. Basically, I’m thinking it’s likely Labor’s tally will start with an 8 and the Coalition’s with a 5.
    Seats where I think there is >50% chance of changing (from Coalition to Labor unless otherwise stated):

    NSW: Bennelong, Reid, Robertson, Wentworth (IND), North Sydney (IND), Mackellar (IND)
    VIC: Chisholm, Higgins, Casey, Goldstein (IND), Kooyong (IND)
    QLD: Brisbane, Ryan, Longman, Leichhardt
    SA: Boothby
    TAS: Bass, Braddon
    WA: Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Curtin (IND)

    There’s also a collection of seats where I think Labor has more than a puncher’s chance but I wouldn’t quite give them >50%. These include La Trobe, Page, Sturt, and probably a few others like Lindsay and Dickson. A conditional probability model might put my mean at >85 because I expect more close Coalition retains than close Labor retains/gains (probably includes Bennelong, Casey, Hasluck).

    I think the Greens have a reasonable chance in Higgins (~30%) and Ryan (~20%) and slightly lesser chances in Griffith, Brisbane, Richmond, Macnamara. Again, a conditional probability model might place the mean at closer to 2 but I don’t pick any of these seats on their own as being a Green gain.

23. Put me down for Labor mid-to-high 70s. I can’t see a path for Morrison to hold on – surely the worst case for Labor is to have to rely Wilkie and Bandt.

    Zoe Daniel to win Goldstein, hopefully also indy wins in Kooyong, Curtin and Wentworth. Probably not in North Sydney or Mackellar though.

    Greens to get Higgins and maybe one of Brisbane, Ryan or Griffiths – but too hard to really guess that as they’ll be a 3-cornered race into second with prefs flying all over the place from the conspiracy theorist minors etc.

    Swing will be uneven, a lot of seats with messy counts.

24. Mr Greenman and others. This is going to be a complete destruction for the Coalition. With lots of new Independents as well. A very clear Labor majority. Don’t be surprised to see the Coalition in the low 60’s out of 151. But nonetheless in the 60’s/151.

25. I predict Labor will end up somewhere in the 74-78 seat range, either just short of a majority or a narrow majority. A minority Coalition Government is still a lesser possibility (depending on the final washup of seats and how Teal Independents play things). A Coalition majority is a distant possibility, but the polling methodologies would still have to be spectacularly wrong for this to occur.

    Likely Labor flips:
    Boothby (SA), Reid (NSW), Swan (WA)

    Labor a good chance to flip:
    Pearce (WA), Chisholm (VIC), Brisbane (QLD), Bass (TAS)

    Very competitive (Coalition held seats):
    Braddon (TAS), Robertson (NSW), Longman (QLD), Leichardt (QLD), Bennelong (NSW)

    Outside chance of a Labor flip:
    Hasluck (WA), Sturt (SA), Ryan (QLD), Higgins (VIC)

    Very remote chance of a Labor flip:
    Lindsay (NSW), Banks (NSW), Page (NSW), Flynn (QLD), Casey (VIC), Deakin (VIC), Latrobe (VIC)

    Likely Coalition flip:
    Hughes (NSW)

    Very competitive (Labor held seats):
    Gilmore (NSW)

    Outside chance of a Coalition flip:
    Paramatta (NSW), Blair (QLD), Lyons (TAS), Lingiari (NT), Corangamite (VIC), McEwen (VIC)

    Very remote chance of a Coalition flip:
    Cowan (WA), Hunter (NSW), Dunkley (VIC), Macquarie (NSW), Werriwa (NSW)

    Likely Independent gains (v Coalition):
    Goldstein (VIC)

    Very competitive Independent (v Coalition):
    Wentworth (NSW), North Sydney (NSW)

    Independent an outside chance of a gain (v Coalition):
    Curtin (WA), Kooyong (VIC), Hughes (NSW), MacKellar (NSW), Nicholls (VIC),

    Independent an outside chance of a gain (v Labor):
    Fowler (NSW)

    Greens an outside chance to gain:
    Higgins (VIC), Brisbane (QLD), Ryan (QLD), Griffith (QLD)

26. I don’t have time to do a seat by seat analysis however I predict the seat totals,

    ALP 78 (+10)
    LNP 65 (-12)
    OTH 8 (+2)

    Labor majority of 5

    ALP gains should be Chisholm,Bass,Bennelong,Leichhardt,Brisbane,Robertson,Lindsay,Swan,Pearce and Boothby

    IND should get Goldstein and Wentworth

    Liberals will gain Gilmore meaning the opposite of the last election and will be Anti-Bellwether.

27. Before anyone asks me about Reid, I think it is line-ball but my gut feeling is that this area (Canada Bay) has trended away from Labor and instinct tells me the Liberals will hold on. Time will tell.

28. I’ve got a bit more of an ambitious prediction, precedent is that change of government elections usually result in an excess of 80 seats being won by the opposition so i’m sticking to that.

    NSW:
    Labor Gain: Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid
    Independents Gain: Wentworth

    VIC:
    Labor Gain: Chisholm
    Independents Gain: Goldstein, Nicholls

    Qld:
    Labor Gain: Brisbane, Longman

    WA:
    Labor Gain: Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
    Independents Gain: Curtin

    SA:
    Labor Gain: Sturt, Boothby

    Tasmania:
    Labor Gain: Bass, Braddon

    If my math is right Labor get to 83, obviously some of these calls are ambitious, Lindsay, Braddon & Sturt in particular, but there’s always a few unforeseen outliers. My intuitive belief is that people have long-awaited a low-risk alternative government and Labor have successfully marketed themselves as one.

    I also believe the lack of resources the Liberals have in virtually every state now (especially following the SA election) will hurt them. When I was in Pearce last week there was probably a 2:1 ratio of Labor material to Liberal.

29. 88 seats for the ALP
    Independents win 12
    GRN win 2
    KAP 1
    Sharkie 1
    LNP 47

30. Hopefully Labor, but Liberals have a chance with preferences from UAP, ONP, WAP etc, and/or support from the teal fake independents to form government.

31. (Belated) Election prediction

    Wa – Ind gain : curtain
    – Lab gain : Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
    Sa – Ind gain : Gray
    – Lab gain : Sturt, Boothby
    Vic – Ind gain : Wannon, Nicholls, Goldstein, Kooyong
    Green gain : Higgins, Macnamara
    Lab gain : Chisholm
    Nsw
    – Ind gain : North Sydney, Mackellar, Wentworth, Calare, Cowper, Page
    – Phon gain : Hunter
    – Green gain : Richmond
    – Lab gain : Robertson, Reid
    Qld
    – Ind gain : Groom, Hinkler
    – Phon gain : Blair
    – Kap gain – Herbert
    – Greens – Griffth, Brisbane, Ryan
    – Lab gain – Longman, Dickson
    Tasmania
    – Lab gain – Bass, Braddon
    Act
    – Green gain : Canberra
    I have no doubt the early results are making me look stupid as I write this

    my reasoning – Hard right and Grens vote increase has to go SOMEWHERE

    Final result
    Coalition – 47
    Labor – 74
    Green – 8
    Phon – 2
    Kap – 2
    CA – 1
    Ind – 17

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