NSW council elections – some of the closest results

All election results for the NSW council elections have now been declared, but some seats have been so close that there have been attempts to call for recounts. It seems very unlikely that any of these results could be overturned, particularly with the switch from the use of random sampling to fractional transfer values. But it has given me a list of races that are very close, and I thought I would run through what some of the closest races were, and the implications if these seats had flipped.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive list – so let me know if I’ve missed some. It includes mostly large councils but also a few smaller ones.

• Bayside – In Ward 2, independent Liberal councillor Michael Nagi defeated Greens candidate Peter Strong by 107 votes. This change would have strengthened the Greens, who won a single seat in Ward 3, but wouldn’t have changed the balance of power much.
• Blue Mountains – Labor gained a big swing in Blue Mountains but just fell short of a majority with two very close results. In Ward 2, Greens councillor Brent Hoare held on by just 27 votes, defeating Liberal candidate Jo Bromilow. The Greens were less lucky in Ward 3, with Greens candidate Kingsley Liu losing to independent Daniel Myles by just 18 votes.
• Campbelltown – Sitting Greens councillor Ben Moroney lost the race for the final seat to Animal Justice Party candidate Matt Stellino by just 239 votes. This is the first time the Greens have run for Campbelltown and not won in the history of the party, and I believe Stellino is the first ever councillor elected for the AJP.
• Hornsby – Labor councillor Janelle McIntosh held on to her seat in the B ward of Hornsby by 228 votes over the second Liberal candidate.
• Inner West – Labor won three seats off conservatives to achieve their majority. Independent Liberal councillor Vittoria Raciti lost to Labor’s second candidate Tim Stephens in Leichhardt-Gulgadya by 393 votes. Conservative independent councillor Victor Macri came much closer in Marrickville-Midjuburi, losing to Labor’s Zoi Tsardoulias by just 64 votes. If Labor were to lose either seat they would lose their majority. My understanding is that the appeal for a recount in Marrickville was rejected, which implies that none of these close races with the exception of Rosehill could be subject to a recount.
• Kiama – The third Greens candidate fell 48 votes short of winning the final seat, losing to independent Warren Steel.
• Northern Beaches – The Greens’ Kristyn Glanville defeated Labor’s Brandt Clifford for the third seat in the Curl Curl ward, a seat won by the Greens in 2017, by just 273 votes. While both parties would’ve liked to win, this change isn’t likely to be critical to the balance of the council, as both candidates would likely sit on the left flank on the council.
• Parramatta – Labor won a second seat in the Rosehill ward of Parramatta, defeating the Greens by just 26 votes. If the Greens had won this seat it’s likely the mayoralty would have still gone to Labor, but the left flank of the council would have been stronger.
• Randwick – The Greens gained one seat and defended another in Randwick by slim margins. The Greens’ Kym Chapple won the party’s fourth seat in Central ward, where they’ve never won before. She defeated the incumbent independent councillor Anthony Andrews by 382 votes. And in West ward, sitting Greens councillor Philipa Veitch defeated Our Local Community sitting councillor Harry Stavrinos (who had been elected in 2016 as a Liberal) by 92 votes. If both of these seats had different results, the current Labor-Greens majority would have lost its majority.
• Ryde – The Liberal Party won six out of twelve seats in Ryde, with an independent Roy Maggio winning a seventh seat, leaving Labor on just five seats. Two other Labor allies lost their seats by narrow margins. Greens councillor Christopher Gordon lost his seat in the East ward to second Liberal Sophie Lara-Watson by just 433 votes, while sitting independent Simon Zhou was defeated by second Liberal Daniel Han in the West ward by just 452 votes.
• Shoalhaven – In Ward 1, the second candidate for the Shoalhaven Independents Group lost to independent candidate (and Liberal Party member) Serena Copley by just 76 votes. In Ward 2, second SIG candidate Mitchell Pakes lost to independent Paul Ell by 376 votes.
• Sutherland D – Labor’s second candidate Greg McLean held on to his seat over independent candidate Dominique Passmore by 369 votes Labor McLean over IND Passmore

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