NSW state redistribution finalised

1. I’m pleasantly surprised that the Panel adopted almost exactly (modulo a couple dozen electors and some details involving no electors) the alternative in my objection for Londonderry, despite the Liberal Party offering absurd boundaries that they pushed further in the hearing.

   Disappointed that they didn’t fix Hornsby.

2. I wouldn’t have called the Liberal proposals for Penrith/Londonderry “absurd”?? Assuming the Penrith area needs to be split somewhere, The Northern Road is at least a fairly clear divide between east and west.

   It was very likely self-serving for their margin in Penrith, but that doesn’t mean it was preposterous…..

3. Chris Minns is probably going to have to change seat. He has the most marginal ALP seat in the whole state so it is really too risky for him to stay in Kogarah, especially as ALP leader.

4. It’s good to see this redistribution hasn’t resulted in the abolishment of any regional electorates. Disappointed that the Upper Hunter hasn’t been renamed to fit it’s geographic location with even more the electorate population based around Singleton area.

   My only predictions for the regions in 2023 are that the Liberals will lose Goulburn, Lismore will be a National Party gain given that a large proportion of Labor voters in the electorate would rather preference the Nationals than let the local anti-vax hippy green sect in. With the changes increasing the Green vote in Lismore Labor would be put third and preferences would flow. Ballina stays Green unless something drastic happens (maybe an Anti-Vax party splitting the heavy Byron Shire green vote). The anti-vax vote used to be useful for the Greens up north but they seem to be shifting their attitude which might cost them electorally in such an anti-vax area.

5. I’d be wary taking notional shifts in the Greens vote in Lismore at face value without accounting for incumbency effects. In 2019, Tamara Smith had a sophomore surge and her primary vote increased even as the Greens primary decreased in neighboring Lismore. In 2023, Janelle Saffin will be the beneficiary of this incumbency effect and there is no reason to expect the ex-Ballina voters now in Lismore will necessarily remain with the Greens when there is a different candidate on the ballot.

   That said, the margins are tight and I agree that in the event the Greens reach second place, the likely result will be a Nationals gain.

6. Maybe, maybe not. Where they do well, Greens sometimes beat Labor on 2pp against the Coalition. They did in Ballina, for instance. Anti-vax sentiment is fast becoming a right-wing cultural phenomenon anyway, and if any of the major parties have been pandering to that, it’s the Coalition.

7. I make no comment one way or the other about anti-vax sentiment and its potential impacts. All I am saying is interpreting votes that were cast for the incumbent member for Ballina in areas that have now been transferred to Lismore as being strictly party line votes will give an inflated estimate of the baseline Greens vote in Lismore. Furthermore that Labor’s vote would be expected to increase all else being equal as Janelle Saffin is a first-term incumbent. I agree that the numbers are nevertheless tight enough that it remains plausible for the Greens to overtake Labor for the final two.

8. Minns will hold onto his seat. You cannot assume a swing to the Liberals after all that has happened with the pandemic. Glady’s should have locked the state down earlier to prevent the mess we are in now. I wouldn’t rule out a Labor majority at this stage even though it’s tricky on the pendelum, Allot of seats are inflated such as Riverstone,Mulgoa,Drummoyne,Parramatta, etc. So I really wouldn’t rule out those seats with the way things are going now.

   And Barliaro is going to lose because of the Jordies situation. Jordies did nothing wrong.

   Minns however should still move seats as it is highly unusual for a premier or opposition leader to be from a marginal seat (Although Dan Andrews seat wasn’t completely safe before 2018 and neither is Steve Marshalls)

   I predict Minns will be the next premier a complete 180 from my prediction before the outbreak. and the Glady’s affair will still be on voters minds in 2023, And should she resign it will be even worse for them if the replacement is Perrottet due to him being too conservative for many of the marginal NSW seats.

   Andrew Constance is their only hope at this stage.

9. On one hand, the ‘musical chairs’ Labor will need to play in the south-west will be tricky. I agree that Minns would be much better off accommodated in a safer seat, plus there’s two frontbenchers fighting over the combined Bansktown/Lakemba seat.

   On the other hand, surely there must be some dead-wood backbenchers clogging up safe seats? Could be an opportunity for NSW Labor to refresh themselves in south-western Sydney like they did at federal level.

10. Mark – when did they do the ALP do that refresh federally? With Anne Stanley!!
    Daniel – I’m afraid we are all armchair epidemiologists. Immediate lockdown was Dan’s strategy and the Delta growth in Victoria is at a rate ahead of NSW. Lets see what plays out when we get out of lockdown – but any election prediction while we are in the middle of lockdown has little if any long term value.

11. This speculation over Minns is silly. Consider:

    * The 2019 result was probably an aberration. Recall that Labor held Kogarah in the 2011 landslide, on more hostile boundaries.
    * The draft boundaries have been out since last November, yet just last week the Daily Telegraph reported Minns’s purchase of a new house in Kogarah.
    * The amalgamation of Lakemba and Bankstown has already created a musical chairs scenario.
    * Minns became leader after the Upper Hunter by-election. It can hardly be unacceptable to lose Upper Hunter but OK to abandon Kogarah.

    He’s not shifting seat.

12. Daniel, It’d be silly to suggest that Barilaro will lose because of some YouTube personality that only has support in Labor circles. Most people have bigger concerns affecting their daily lives and care about those issues when it comes time to vote, especially in regional areas. I can see a path for Labor to win at the next election but I don’t see it at the expense of the Nationals in any way. I also don’t see Chris Minns holding his current seat even if Labor wins, Kogarah voters already held back last election and nearly booted the party. I don’t see him as the type of MP to switch seats either. So we may see (for the first time) a party get elected without a clear Premier…

13. Nick Lalich (Cabramatta MP) is probably one of those backbenchers who could retire at the upcoming election, freeing up one south-west Sydney seat. There was speculation that he would retire last election, but chose to recontest.

14. David, 2011 isn’t a good barometer because there’s been 10 years of demographic change since then, especially around Hurstville. The trend of the Asian vote – increasingly wealthy – has not been favourable to Labor and will only be accentuated if the Libs run Scott Yung again.

    IIRC Minns got some good swings in the less diverse, more traditionally Liberal booths around Carss Park and elsewhere so maybe that will save him again? Who knows.

    Moderate, agree 100%.

15. I also agree with Moderate’s view – I am originally from Sydney and have family living there. I feel that the mood there is very different from other smaller states (I am now in Brisbane, Queensland). Many locals feel that the risk is now lower with ever increasing vaccination rates and that it is difficult to achieve zero cases in a densely populated city environment.

16. Barilaro promised a some stage to retire from state parliament…. will he keep his word?

17. @Mark Mulcair

    Yes, you’re right, I’m probably being too harsh. Just tilted by how much nonsense political parties pull off during redistributions.

    Those boundaries may have been obvious and recognisable, but as I argued in my comment on objections, they aren’t ideal from a community of interest perspective.

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