There’s been a lot of comments on various electorate profiles about the federal election that have been a bit more general than about a particular seat, and I’ve had a few requests for an open thread to discuss the federal election.
I’m working on a couple of other blog posts I’m hoping to put up later this week.
Marko
Fair comment – it always amazes me that the Bible Belt are Liberal supporters. Considering I was once told by a senior Liberal Staffer (i.e. Chief of Staff to a Minister) we don’t believe in welfare. Isn’t Christianity all based around helping out someone when they need help?
“Polls don’t decide elections. Voters do.”
“Scientists don’t decide what happens in the world. Nature does.”
Both statements are true, but I don’t see what the point is. I could just as well, and more justifiably say:
“Tally Room commenters don’t decide elections. Voters do.”
I have heard it said a few times that a split vote on the right tends to deliver government to Labor. Can someone explain this? As I understand it, PHON always directs prefs to Coalition parties.
James – look up “prosperity gospel”. Combine that with virtue ethics and a “f*** you, got mine” attitude isn’t hard to arrive at.
i think this coming election more than most will be affected by confirmation bias, because the population is so divided and because the cause of the division have changed. The old class divisions still exist but the youth versus age ones have intensified.
My own guess is that most regional centres will swing to ALP at least by the older demographic, including i think by deep rage by the over 60s at being forced to choose the AZ vaccine, which rightly or wrongly is seen as second rate and dangerous.
In Qld the seats i would be looking at for change;
Blair possible due to ON/UAP gain by Libs or right wing independent/ON/QANON
Longman – possible ALP gain- a very complex seat
Fairfax and Fishet- solid swing to ALP but may not be sufficient
Leichardt – depends on Entsch if he goes ALP gain
Ryan: always one to watch. Possible green win or ALP outside chance
Bonner- becomes marginal
Bowman- probable ALP win after laming disaster (plus retirement demographic)
Capricornia- probable ALP gain
Wide bay -worth watching
I would not expect any change in other seats. Basically i expect in Qld that the aging demographic will swing heavily labor, the small business demographic oddly enough will also swing slightly labor but mixed, the battler demographic so influenced by QANON/ON will swing ON then LNP. So essentially seats with more aging and fewer battlers will go towards ALp and the truly working class suburbs like former ALP heartland like Blair might swing LNP/ON. The regions will swing ALP because of anti NSW bias.
Not a lot of change in NSW – consolidation of trends i think
Bennelong- watch because of Chinese community
Warringah – watch but independents usually win second terms
Cowper- unlikely to change but keep an eye on it- bit of an ageing demographic
Hughs – LNP regain
Bradfiels – a very unlikely but possible green/independent win
Calare – unlikely but the shooters cannot be ruled out
Hume- unlikely swing but fires, COVID and Angus all factors
I would not consider any of the above likely, just possible so essentially status quo on NSW
Chris Kenny has reported in the Australian that Campbell Newman has quit the LNP and will run for the federal senate. The most likely party he will run for is the Liberal Democrats it was reported. I understand Labor won one senate seat at the last federal election in Queensland but it was still reported in the Courier Mail a couple weeks ago. The likely scenario in Queensland would be the LNP would win two senate seats, Labor would win two senate seats, and the last senate two seats would be a fight between the LNP, One Nation, and the Greens.
If Newman ran for the Liberal Democrats would it change things drastically? I’m not sure sure. I don’t think he would have too much of a base to start with. But he may drag in some of that LNP vote that had time for him. I’m not sure about the regional/rural vote though, as One Nation grew because of the regional/rural constituency disillusionment with the LNP. Newman with his cuts and proposed privatisation as Premier had a lot to do with that disillusionment.
Political Nightwatchman
Newman running increases the risk for Amanda Stoker at no 3 on the LNP ticket.
Maverick
I’m all in favour of a diversity of opinion. You have certainly widened the spectrum there mate!!.
James
Questioning whether any serious (mainstream?) politician supports the social justice /welfare safety net is really full on. Then extending it to mainstream parties is just ludicrous. If there is any serious chance of austerity (measures), it will be delivered by a LABOR govt in 2025 -27 under the next Labor PM. Yes, that would be a betrayal in essence. However the Historical precedents are Hawke in 83, & Howard in 96 (raising taxation too)
Newman is despised by pretty much all sides of Qld politics. Left leaning voters hate him for everything he did, LNP voters hate him for his rampaging ego, squandering a landslide victory after being in the wilderness for so long. He’s not worth worrying about, unless certain interests decide to astroturf him into a proxy-Palmer.
That might be it. The Liberal Democrats are apparently positioning themselves as the home of the anti-lockdown fringe, saying the things that the LNP knows it can’t, and Newman is a pretty good pick as political wrestling heels go. it’s probably not enough to win a single seat for the Lib Dems, not even in the senate, but could it fill the void of PHON/UA, directing preferences to the LNP? Newman was in the papers a few weeks ago as well, supposedly he’s reconciled with Clive. Food for thought if you’re conspiratorially minded.
I would describe the starting point for the Qld senate as “LNP win two, Labor win one; four way fight for the remaining three.”
On 4PP, last time, Labor were three percentage points away from a second seat, the Greens were only about 1% off quota, One Nation were almost 2% over quota, and the LNP were just over three quotas.
If you assume an eventual swing of something like what Poll Bludger shows for this week, then you get the more usual 2-2-1-1 with LNP coming unlucky 7th. But there’s room for variation. If the One Nation vote crashes then that probably benefits Labor, mostly because they’re the closest to an additional seat.
Furtive Lawngnome
You’re probably largely correct about Newman. However your absolutism has blinded you to seeing that regardless of all that, there will still be a significant number of voters that RESPECT what he attempted to achieve. Respect counts for more than affection, with some. This election will be an excellent test of this view.
i’m assuming that you are untroubled by our current path of (unbridled) borrowing, spending, & printing money. So far you are correct in this (Position) as there has been little consequence, or cost. The current narrative is “that it doesn’t matter because everyone else is (doing the same) too !!. We will see. Newman did attempt to steer QLD on a different course. QLD’ers were confused about this NOT being a “painless” operation ! SHOCK HORROR !!..
It is fascinating how the Left go mental over the righteousness preaching, lecturing,& authoritarianism from a (single) Perfectionist/reformer Type 1 personality like Newman on the right. YET the left are completely blind,& oblivious, to even more excessive behaviour, & outright hypocrisy from the hordes of dysfunctional type 1’s on the left fro example Adam Bandt ?
Regurgitating a list of of Murdoch’s interests & assets, as evidence of his insidious & even nefarious influence on our country, & politics is old, lame, hackneyed, & just plain pathetic. Of course you don’t want to argue, if thats the best you have got. My father (MR WD snr) used to refer to “the Australian syndrome”. An overarching sense of entitled self importance, & say” IF Australia sank into the ocean tomorrow the world would go on without missing a beat” IOW NOTHING that happens here affects the rest of the world. Our (limited)international influence is only significant as a reflection, & effect of our alliance with the USA. To postulate that Newscorp’s interest in Australia, are comparable to those in Europe, or USA is just blatantly absurd.
Additionally the proposition that increasing tenants rights would somehow alleviate housing costs, or availability was astounding. Ive written extensively on this issue elsewhere, clearly none of that was noticed..
OTH Mrs WD was very impressed with the “astroturfing” reference. And found investigating it compelling & interesting. However i feel that your (excessive !?) interest in conspiracy may be slightly unwell, & of concern !.
Probably my tone has been unduly harsh, or unforgiving, so i’ll apologise for that. However some of your views are provocative, & challenging
cheers WD
I never really quite know what you’re talking about wrt personality types. What I’ll say as far as Adam Bandt goes is that I suppose partisans will measure perceived sanctimony by their own yardsticks, but imo he’s not very similar to Newman. He’s pretty retiring and shy in comparison and his leadership style is much more consultative. The Greens certainly have their share of confrontational figures, but Adam’s not one of them.
‘Regurgitating a list of of Murdoch’s interests & assets, as evidence of his insidious & even nefarious influence on our country, & politics is old, lame, hackneyed, & just plain pathetic. Of course you don’t want to argue, if thats the best you have got.’
Right, his influence on Australian politics is so self-evident that anyone who denies it isn’t worth arguing with. Bizarrely you go on to argue that NewsCorp is so powerful that Australian elections simply aren’t worth Murdoch’s time, despite the fact that every single one of his outlets near relentlessly pushes his politics. He’s both powerless and omniscient, apparently. Well, believe what you like.
winediamond
Are you questioning my comment on the Senior Liberal making a comment we don’t believe in Welfare. It did happen – it was in Parliament House and I was at the meeting.
Hey, don’t take issue with WD’s florrid expressions. Without them, there’d be no energy on here at all!
Jokes aside, I don’t think your point about Murdoch pushing his politics is fully accurate. Sure, I’d say the heavy-hitters are by in large conservative, but his ownership also includes many papers that sway in the wind. I will grant you most of these papers i.e. the Mercury, Sunday Telegraph and Northern Territory News haven’t endorsed Labor since 2010. Others like the Australian and Courier Mail haven’t done so since 2007. That said, I’d suggest that that’s more of a reflection on the state of Labor in the last 15 years than anything else.
As for televsion and the rest? Who knows.
Similar arguments made by UK Labour after their 2019 thrashing. The comments made by former Labour Home Secretary Jack Straw on the topic were instructive – Labour have won plenty of times without much, if any, media support. Blaming the media is a useful scapegoat for declining performance when they ought to look in a mirror.
James
No not at all. I was questioning how such a person could be serious ?. It is the sort of comment capable of ending a political career, not just for content, but lack of judgement.
Murdoch doesn’t have the same monopoly over British media as he does here. Nonetheless, UK Labour haven’t won a general election without his blessing at least since the 70s, as far as I can tell. Blair won with Rupert’s blessing in 1997 and they lost government in 2010. When did News Corp stop endorsing the Labour Party? 2010, curiously enough.
Correlation ≠ causation.
Furtive Lawngnome
WRT to the Enneagram, you are either curious about it or not. I’ve studied it for 13 years & have found it incredible, & a path to true freedom. The personality profiling just helps me make better sense of myself, & other people. The Greens party/organisation are a type 1, & are dominated by type 1’s. You might see a huge difference between Newman, Bandt, di Natali, Brown Milne, McKim, SH-Y, Christian Porter, Julia Gillard, Penny WONG , Margaret Thatcher, i could go on……! But i don’t see much difference …, because they are all the same personality type. Their behaviours are consistent, & predictable. None are evolved …. Yet.
Do you see any martin Luther KING, Mandela, or Gandhi ? OTH i see far more similarity, with Ayatollah Khomeini, Robespierre, & LENIN. The greatest idealogical butchers in history. All type 1’s
My first wife (17 years) is a lifelong Green voter, & a type 1 MY VIEW & EXPERIENCE IS LIVED.
The unity in the Greens that you admire so much comes from a monoculture of righteous purity, & Zealotry.
Where is the tolerance, & curiosity about other views ? Your contention about Bandt’s “consultative” skills are incredible. All i have ever observed is righteous judgement preaching, & lecturing etc. Consultation involves listening, & acceptance. Where is there any instance of this from Bandt ? OTH the clown was demanding coalition with labor just the other day !!!. The only reason that Bandt is still in parliament, is because Sen Jim Molan declined to sue Bandt into bankruptcy for public defamation (the WAR CRIMINAL thing). How can that outrage come from someone ” pretty retiring and shy in comparison” . Are you for real !?
“What I’ll say as far as Adam Bandt goes is that I suppose partisans will measure perceived sanctimony by their own yardsticks ” No mate that is just so so completely misguided. Most people have less interest in perfection, & purity, so sanctimony doesn’t come so quick or easy. It is just not a priority. For instance mine (priorities ) are about control, resisting feeling controlled, & feeling out of control. Not trying to control others. Very different.
FL i intensely object to your typification, & interpretation of what i said re Murdoch. Even more that you ignored my point about the “Australian syndrome”. Rupert has a lot better things to do with his time than obsess about Australia. If you knew anything about the man you would grasp this reality immediately. My godfathers best mate was a personal secretary to Rupert, one of several (simultaneously !), & was consumed by the job, & the man. Rupert has an inhuman capacity & energy for business, workload, & strategy. Every minute & meeting is meticulously managed.
A News corp journalist expressing a critical or otherwise view is not an attempt to excerpt political influence, it is just an opinion. Assuming an editorial control is just fanciful. When i hear otherwise from left wing commentators that work in Newscorp or Sky then i’ll take some notice. However i listen to Richo, Conroy, Linda Scott, Sam Crosby & many others & no one comes out with such tripe.
“his influence on Australian politics is so self-evident that anyone who denies it isn’t worth arguing with” “OMNISCIENT” really ??? So his journos have influence ???. Big DEAL, thats part of their job So What ? Does that make Rupert some kind of ” Kingmaker”?
Thanks WineDiamond – just wasn’t sure. It was certainly an interesting comment in a room full of Departmental Staff and Community Representatives.
Wreathy of Sydney
Mate you say the nicest things to me…! Mrs WD particularly enjoyed the “florid expressions”, & was moved to chime in with “floral & flowery language”. Every writer has a critic… but not many choose to live with one…! Enough of Mrs WD’s caustic humour, & sarcasm.
Agree with you on everything ESPECIALLY that if Labor performed better they would experience less comment on their inadequacies.
cheers WD
James well thought out……. dont think there will be a six pack to the liberals in nsw
Qld… Blair and Lilley will remain Labor. Wa showing double digit swing to alp on opinion polls also near wipe out at the state govt level makes liberal campaign infrastructure structure much less.
Mick
Six Pack ? Blair is already gone. Lilley is a maybe Annika Wells is the deciding factor. Looks like WA is set to give the PM a bloody nose – all three marginals to Labor.
AGREE with the rest
cheers WD
Wine
What makes you think there will be a swing to Morrison in Qld. I just cannot see it. I can see a swing to ON and other far right parties but not to the LNP or Morrison.
Lilley is gentrifying and will move ALP because the younger, richer trendier voters have little in common with the LNP. They will go green, independent or AJP first but land with the ALP.
Blair I think is more of a chance to go LNP because there is not the gentrification to offset the shift to the far right.
Maverick
“”What makes you think there will be a swing to Morrison in Qld.?”” I don’t think that. You will find out my opinion on Morrison in the COOK thread. I do think Albo has accomplished nothing especially in QLD. There is a really strong (federal) anti- ALP trend in QLD which will continue. Not even Morrison can retard it completely.
I am over 60 & no one is doing anything for us. Labor has (temporarily !) gone quiet on attacking us, but both parties have form (with this). The difference is that even the libs recognise that the over 60’s are a core constituency & that should ensure some prudence. Consequently i find your views difficult to reconcile .
Only losing Blair would be an outstanding ALP result. They will win nothing.
WRT to younger voters : cynics, & sceptics are disillusioned idealists. I don’t think anyone can argue the proposition that all govts have comprehensively disillusioned voters for decades. This results in the preponderance of the greatest single issue for SWINGING voters — cost of living. The left despise this as an “I’m right Jack” mentality, but self interest prevails. The thirties is when realities bite, & it’s never changed.
I’m sorry that hoping things will change doesn’t mean they will
cheers WD
Wine
I am not so sure that the over 60s are happy. The AZ debacle I suspect has alienated many.
I agree Albo has not cut through in Qld but not sure how this will translate to votes. I repeat my gut feeling that the retiree mob who are keen on lockdowns and border closures will mark Scotty down. greens and independents may do well but i also think that crises support no changes so where there is a decent sitting member there will be no change. Exceptions i suspect may be Bonner, the far north and possibly seats with three way splits. I also think the Sunshine coast seats are vulnerable, especially to a strong independent or third party.
@Maverick, there doesn’t need to be a swing to Morrison in QLD per se. He just needs to win in the right areas – see my comments on the previous page. Besides, ~ 58% is one of the best results for the LNP in QLD since WWII; I don’t think there’s much more to squeeze out of there.
We’ll agree to disagree re: over 60s. Outside of Sydney where long-term economic and social consequences become more and more likely the longer our lockdown continues, the main thing people will care about come election day is whether they are vaccinated and the economy is ok. If both of those conditions are met, will people really remember whether it took them 3 weeks or 3 months to get the vaccine? Not in my opinion.
Wreathy
I agree that the LNP cannot do much better in Qld, which is why I cannot see them winning much. Blair might be an exception because it is ON territory.
If the Qld state election is anything to go by the oldies support the lockdowns big time.
As to the vaccines, firstly when will they be available. Lots of AZ around but many just will not take it. Yes if the election is next year you may be right- provided just about everyone is vaccinated. However it just takes one 18-25 year old to die of AZ or be brain damaged for it to result in boiling rage. This will intensify if it is thought that NSW is getting more than its fair share of Pfizer. Novovax has disappeared into the ether.
Your Sydney centric ideas show through. For the rest of the country [FALSE COMMENT DELETED] there is no sympathy at all for NSW. The popularity of lockdown was tested in Qld and WA. It was a winner.
Maverick, I’ve corrected some false things you said in your last comment.
Anyone who suggests that Sydney is not experiencing a real lockdown from now on will be permanently banned.
WD:
‘WRT to the Enneagram, you are either curious about it or not.’
I’m not frankly.
‘Consultation involves listening, & acceptance. Where is there any instance of this from Bandt ? ‘
I mean it in the context of how he interacts with people personally – a lot of people describe him as quiet and shy on an interpersonal level, despite his beliefs and his position in politics – and his leadership style, where he’s sought to improve the input of the grassroots membership on deciding preselections and party policy both. It’s put him at direct odds with previous leaders like Christine Milne and Richard Di Natale who wanted to keep a more authoritarian party structure. As for ‘retiring’, you yourself describe how Jim Molan forced multiple apologies and acquiescence from Bandt for comments on his war record. This is the guy who was Deputy Chief of Staff of Operations for Coalition Forces in Iraq; their documented atrocities are myriad, the undocumented likely moreso. Bandt completely rolled over for the guy. A ‘zealot’ would have stood his ground, lawsuit or no. But these are my perceptions, coloured as they are by my political biases. Feel free to disagree with them, coloured as you are by your biases, and present it with whatever pop-psychology guff you’ve globbed onto. But I find arguing about this sort of thing tedious and very pointless.
‘FL i intensely object to your typification, & interpretation of what i said re Murdoch.’
Okay great. Believe what you like.
Maverick:
I think it’d be a mistake to characterise all of Lilley’s changes as favourable for Labor. Most of the changes in the southernmost suburbs probably are, but the gentrification that’s taken place in suburbs like Bridgeman Downs, Carseldine, parts of Aspley etc probably aren’t. The sorts of people moving in here are generally older and much wealthier than the people moving into the south of the electorate. There’s also, to me, a noticeably growing Indian population and they’re quickly becoming a reliably Liberal demographic. I mean Lilley swung 8 points against Labor last election, they’d be mad to sleep on it.
I wonder how much in Qld, Vic, and WA will the comment Morrison is the “Prime Minister for NSW” will have. You can see the Premiers of these states all pushing this line in the election. This in WA will result in seats lost and may change Qld and Vic.
“
Ben
I am sorry if I cam across a little facetious but there are significant differences between say Melbourne and Sydney lockdowns and even the short sharp ones in Qld.
First obviously is the lack of any “ring of steel” and the 10 Km rather than 5 Km travel distance. Also i am not sure what shops are open, but i think rather more than in Melbourne. and finally there is no night time curfew. I think those four differences are rather significant. There may well be others eg what constitutes essential work.
Certainly in the early part of the lockdown when people interstate saw the parties on the beach in Bondi with no one caring, sympathy for Sydney went out the window. I assume it is better now but you should have started properly and not given the eastern suburbs wealthy such an easy time.
Furtive
Yes I agree Aspley is LNP heartland, but the rest of Lilley is rather different. Nundah, Chermside, Stafford etc are gentrifying and are becoming home to inner city types who cannot afford the house prices in West End
Your comment regarding the Indian demographic is certainly interesting and worth noting. How will the arrival ban play out with that group? i use the coffee shop index and Nundah is definitively trending up
Blair is really very close to the old Oxley
..post 1975 to 2007… Ie all Ipswich plus extra.no Lockyer Valley. This ensures in most circumstances alp held.The Queensland demographic of. Older people shifting against the lnp…was show at the state election. For Hervey bay and Bundaberg which almost coincides with most of Hinkler
We’re not going to continue to have a conversation about the relative merits of the lockdowns – you can discuss the electoral implications, but not have a policy debate about them.
But just to respond to that comment – all of the major relevant parts of the lockdowns are the same. Curfews were demonstrated to be without purpose, as are universal outdoor masks (you are required to wear outdoor masks in certain spaces). It is also illegal to leave Sydney unless you have a particular essential reason, and I haven’t seen any stories about there being many cases of people breaking that rule. So all those rules are just pointless theatre. Very few shops are open. Even before they required most stores to close, the vast majority were either closed or largely deserted. They’re just not the main cause of transmission. I’d also point out that the data on mobility suggests that movement in Sydney is lower than it has been in Melbourne at any point during the pandemic.
Yes I think it is likely that they waited too long to move in the first place but we’re past that point now. The lockdown is very tight. And I’m sick of people who are not in Sydney saying otherwise.
”Aspley is LNP heartland” is quite misleading I’m afraid. The reason they have done well in Aspley federally is because since 2010 the LNP have done well federally in QLD. At the state level the ALP hold Aspley by a decent margin now, So it isn’t ”heartland” It is a swinging area and if/when Labor win federally again they should do well in these suburbs.
Aspley > Government
As for the Newman story, Oh my I am quite fascinated. I may disagree with allot what the man did for our state but my god, He actually had the guts to quit the LNP, I will give him credit for that.
I don’t know if I would vote for him for senate but I do agree with most of what he said on Sky news last night. It does take me by surprise he quit while Crisafulli is leader, I thought those 2 were mates?
I don’t agree Newman will hurt the LNP. I actually think it will be the direct opposite because there are many people like myself who wouldn’t support the LNP with the Newman brand around. And now that he has quit the LNP the LNP are clearly distant from his premiership now. I believe the LNP could win over some moderates who previously wouldn’t forgive the LNP for Newman (after all he quit the party so I’m sure they can be swayed)
I don’t see Newman winning a senate seat unless he runs for One Nation, The Lib Dems will struggle up here. I believe Hanson herself is up next year so electing 2 PHON’s will be quite difficult but not impossible. question is does Hanson warm up to Newman if he does switch considering they have a similar opinion on lockdowns.
Newman’s best bet is a double dissolution considering that was when PHON won 2 senators in 2016. Difficult task for Newman to win but not impossible. People do underestimate his support.
Why would Newman run for ON? I thought he was a wet Liberal (and even a lot of dry Liberals, like myself, would go to LD/Christian parties/other minor right before ON).
@Daniel
I completely disagree. One Nation winning two senate seats in half election is out of the question. There not even certain to get one although there certainly in with a good shot. One Nation vote dropped significantly in Queensland last state election from its peak.
Campbell Newman won’t go to One Nation. He won’t be Pauline Hanson’s running mate because he knows a secound spot on the ticket is an unwinnable postion. Even if there was a double dissolution. What makes you think Malcom Roberts would give up his spot on the ticket for Newman?
Therefore his best bet is the Liberal Democrats. But even then I’m predicting for him to fall short. Yes the Liberal Democrats got close to a senate seat in 2016 with senate canidate Gabe Buckley. But the old preferncing system that benefited micro parties and the double dissolution which was a lower threshold of the vote. Probably made the result better then it seemed.
Newman needs a base. I’m just not convinced he will have one if he runs. And may fall in to the trap of Glenn Lazarus where he trys to appeal to everyone but has no base to hold his vote up.
Anton K
i sense its premature to make assumptions about Newmans post LNP politics or positions. Don’t know how you see him as “wet’!?. ON is different in QLD or perceived differently. I doubt whether there has been an invitation from ON ? Would Pauline welcome Newman ? OTH Newman becomes the leader of LDP in QLD or even Australia overnight.
Daniel
Fascinating comments & views. If you are correct Newman’s presence might affect Labor’s senate vote significantly too?. Does this then flow on & diminish labor prefs to the greens ? “” I don’t agree Newman will hurt the LNP.”” Depends on how, & what you mean ?. Surely he represents a powerful , even existential threat to LNP no 3 sen Stoker ?.
“”I don’t see Newman winning a senate seat unless he runs for One Nation, The Lib Dems will struggle up here.”” I can’t agree. His profile is so pervasive I’m reminded of Jim Molan’s success as an independent senate candidate, obviously a far less divisive figure. Leyonheljm’s success is pertinent too.
Personally Newman is someone i’d vote for in heart beat, regardless of politics. Why ? Because he will do what Senators are supposed to do which is to fight for every scrap of benefit for their OWN STATE, at any price. Staggers me that few voters seem to consider this much at all…. Jackie Lambie is clearly the most effective senator atm, i doubt anyone will argue . However if i were to suggest that Hanson was too…!? Well that would be an entirely different matter don’t you agree !?
I’d suggest to you Daniel, that Newmans chances might be a little greater than your seeing atm ,so i’ll be very interested if or when, your perceptions alter in any way.
cheers WD
Newman amongst other things is socially wet, or at least was when Mayor/Premier,;and generally people don’t do a full 180 on that sort of thing.
While I like Newman, I’d be upset if he kicked Stoker out.
I assume that Newman’s defection from the LNP is linked with the return of Springbord as party President. Springbord is an old fashioned “country guy” but surprisingly very well liked, including by many solid ALP supporters. I am wondering if Newman quitting is a move towards decoupling the Liberals and Nationals.
Newman is a show pony….. suspect he is not wanted by the broad left or broad right….. he cannot win the required 16% …. but of course every vote counts in a pr Ballot. I think senate in Qld will be 2 alp 2 lnp plus 2 up for grabs….onp. gr. lnp and labor probably in that order
Maverick
There appears to be a wider movement from the Libs to the LDP. Ross Cameron seems to be orchestrating a re-imagining. Healthy scepticism regarding minor party dreams is always prudent. However if i were a lib backer i’d be concerned about losing backing, & funding. Springborg’s mutual hatred with Jeff Sweeney was so all consuming, i doubt there was any leftover for anyone else !!. I can check with one of my godsons if you like (a Seeney nephew ) !?.
Mick
A Brave prediction. One that would entail a reversal of trends. PHON has been hollowing out the Labor senate vote faster, & stinger than the LNP. Most likely 3x LNP 1X ON 2 ALP. How do you see someone as intense, & ideological as Newman as a “show pony”. It just strikes me as so improbable as describing Penny Wong as cheery light, & comical !!! Or Bob Katter, as dull, pedestrian, & predictable !?
The reason Newman will join the Lib Dems is because while they are still hard-libertarian (like the Liberals) they’re also socially progressive (think same-sex marriage, drug legalisation, abortion and euthanasia). Newman running as a Lib Dem will only take votes off the LNP and One Nation, given Labor’s supporters (assuming they do jump off) will swing to the Greens and not to Newman given the whole anti-lockdown thing that the Lib Dems seem to be positioning their campaign on (see John Ruddick, illegal Covid protest, Sydney).
Liberals hard libertarian? HAHAHAHAHA.
Almost every Liberal loves big government.
Ryan
Are you suggesting that the LDP may take on board the libertarian type Liberals. This is quite possible and sort of forms part of the semi split of liberals from the LNP.
Certainly Newman will take NO votes from the ALP. The depth of hatred there is so strong that i would even suggest that if Newman is on the ticket the ALP (or many ALP voters) will put it last on the ballot.
The other wild card is Clive Palmer. I am not sure if his feud with Newman is still going, but I suspect he may well use his money to fight him.
Interesting comment re Springborg and Seeney. What was the history? Where does Feeney sit relative to Newman and the economic right of the LDP.
Anton Kreitzer
I agree that Newman has some atypical passions as opposed to most conservatives, however there isn’t a lot of distraction from the core VALUES. just sense describing him as a wet is going a little far.
I see Stoker as first FEMALE liberal PM IN 2032. So obviously I’m a fan. Losing her senate seat may end up a blessing in disguise. Would like to see her in Bowman instead of that clot Henry Pike. Sadly it won’t happen.
cheers WD
“Springbord is an old fashioned “country guy” but surprisingly very well liked, including by many solid ALP supporters.”
@Maverick
Not really. Lawrence Springborg lost three state elections and never really made inroads into Labor dominated Brisbane or North and Central Queensland . The suggestion that Campbell Newman will be taking Labor votes is also ludicrous. As Newman completely turned off Labor voters and swinging voters right through Brisbane, Widebay, North and Central Queensland. I must say there is alot rewriting of history on this board and it’s kind of funny. That all these right wing politicians are appealing to Labor voters. Maybe Pauline Hanson has had some appeal for working class regional voters who traditionally vote Labor but that’s it.
The realty is if Newman does stand for the Liberal Democrats. He will competing with LNP, One Nation, UAP, and KAP for votes from the Right. There isn’t enough vote for everyone to go around and someone will miss out. I’m not convinced Newman won’t be one of them.
The first Sydney metropolitan Council (Georges River) area within a Commonwealth Liberal Seat (Banks) will face harsher new COVID restrictions. I wonder if this will have any impact on the outcome of this seat?
Nightwatchman
I agree pretty much.
I only comment on Springborg because i have been given quite a bit of positive feedback from unexpected sources. I do not think he is very electable because he lack charisma.
Newman I think would not even attract PHON voters and certainly not KAP. However Liberal voters (as opposed to National voters)m might be a different story.
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