NSW redistribution – draft map and margins

1. There’s no way the ALP lose Leppington in 2023 even on a 1% margin, Because the margins don’t take into account Labour has done poorly in the past 3 state elections. And no Liberal government has won a 4th term (Askin couldn’t do it) so I expect that to have a healthy swing to Labour in 2023. Kogarah isn’t in play either, the reason it was close last time was because of the stealing Migrant jobs comment by Daley.

2. Askin was first elected in 1965 and re-elected in 1968, 1971 and 1973. Short terms but still four terms.

3. And also, under the new leader of Eric Willis, the Liberals were just short of winning a fifth term in 1976.

4. Ah Daniel you are back with your wildly optimistic projections. LP wins Leppington – massive demographic changes in an area benefiting enormously from infrastructure around 2nd airport.
   Gladys v Jodi really isn’t a fair fight, but I look forward to you and your comrade Mick Quinlivan coming in here telling us how the ALP will win Ryde, Oatley, Kiama etc etc.

5. The boundaries under discussion are a draft. Assuming that these become the gazetted boundaries, Labor would require a uniform swing of 6.7% to achieve the 54.7% tpp required to win a majority.
   NSW Labor has only achieved that level at 4 elections in the last 60 years. None of these were from opposition.

   Mod Lib, it is highly unlikely that Gladys will be contesting the next state election and I doubt that Jodi will be Labor leader heading into that election. You are correct on one thing – the next NSW election will not be a fair contest.

6. Just an example what we’re the federal figures for Riverstone and Kiama?

7. Mick – you kept wanting the same numbers for the last election. Kiama is now an 11pc seat. Probably time to turn your energy (and obsession) somewhere else. I hear sudoku can be quite therapeutic.

8. On these boundaries Labor should win Leppington pretty easily. It reminds me of Macarthur and Burt when they were last redistributed, those seats had Liberal leaning margins on paper but Labor ended up winning with very large swings.

   As for the party leaders, I’d be surprised if they were still there. Berejiklian seems to be a reasonable operator although there are some inconstitancies around her dealings with Daryl Maguire which probably need some clearing up, in fact using ignorance as a means to justify innocence really doesn’t cut it.
   As for McKay, she seems pretty lacklustre and not particularly inspiring, only winning the leadership because she was the least worst option.

   The main problem for Labor is that they would need to win seats with swings over 7% which won’t with McKay as leader, and with no apparent successor and a dearth of talent.

9. there could be a hung parliament with a much smaller swing………. most 3rd party are naturally more left aligned……….. and sff are on horrible terms with the libs.

10. I am not at all convinced that demographic changes in Leppington district will secure the seat for the Liberal Party. This demographic is unpredictable, and if anything tends to be split 50-50 between Labor and the Liberals. The Liberals have taken a lot of flak concerning infrastructure, schools, and hospitals in developing suburbs. If these boundaries are confirmed, I expect Leppington to be a tight contest in 2023.

11. Now that Chris Minns is the leader, he may have a harder time keeping his own seat than winning the election if his margin will be just 0.3%. Polls are suggesting up to a 7% swing to the Liberals in the 2PP vote delivering them a 59-41 majority. However I believe this will greatly decrease as COVID becomes less relevant as the next election is till 21 months away although it’s likely with the current circumstances that the Liberals will win. If the current circumstances remain then Chris Minns will lose his seat under the current circumstances. The coalition is polling 59% in 2PP right now, so unless Labor reverses the Liberals’ massive lead, then Kogarah is likely gone for Labor. I say this because Kogarah is even closer for Labor than it was at the 2011 landslide election in a state environment of Liberal +2.02%, can you imagine what it will be like in a national environment of ~3-9%? Now let me say that Kogarah is not gone yet for Labor and they still have 21 months, but with the current direction of the party and Gladys’ sky high popularity, Kogarah will be a easy LIB gain.

    Leppington will almost certainly not be an easy win for the Liberals and will at most be a marginal seat, occasionally becoming safe at landslide elections. Southwest Sydney has been trending blue since 2007 and even though the 2015 and 2019 elections undid a lot of the margin the Liberals gained in 2011, it’s still blue. Great examples of this are Mulgoa, Camden and Wollondilly. These seats are all to the right of the state average and since 2007 have moved massively to the right, especially Mulgoa. However as good as that sounds, there’s no evidence those seats will continue to move to the right and they may stay somewhat safe. In 2023 if. the current environment doesn’t change I do expect Leppington to be picked up by the Liberals but not by an exceptionally large margin and I do expect it to be a marginal seat just because polls are showing 2023 as a possible landslide year.

    Penrith becomes slightly weaker and it’s likely the Liberals could lose that in the near future but if the political environment is what the polls suggest it is then I expect a win for the Liberals. It won’t be a massive margin either way though and it is a marginal seat.

    East Hills is an exceptionally interesting seat, no one really expected the Liberals to hold on in both 2015 and in 2019. This seat will likely flip back to Labor in the near future but just because of the current political environment and polling, Wendy Lindsay is likely to hold on. This is because the “covid boost” is more prevalent in cities than rural areas and these urban seats are likely going to have a larger swing to the Liberals if the polls turn out to be true just because of the covid factor alone.

    Upper Hunter is interesting, having being held by the coalition for 94 consecutive years. It’s a seat that’s exceptionally troubling for the Nationals and will likely remain a marginal seat. However, if the by-election results are anything to go off then the Nationals will hold on in 2023, possibly with a reduced or increased majority. Usually in LIB/NAT vs ALP contests in by-elections, the party which holds government usually improves on their by-election results. The exceptions to this are when the seat is a contest that’s not a traditional LIB/NAT vs ALP contest, such as a NAT vs SFF contest or NAT vs IND. Past trends are not the only thing to go off but in the external polling booths that will be added to the Upper Hunter electorate had massive swings towards the Nationals in primary vote, such as in Branxton. As a result I do expect the Nationals to hold on.

    In summary most of these seats are dependent on the state political environment. Labor won’t win Kogarah if the state environment is LIB +9 and the Liberals won’t win Leppington if the state environment is ALP +5. Due to the current environment the Coalition will likely win these seats but that doesn’t mean they won’t be close and remember that 21 months is a long time in politics, everything can change.

12. I was going to say, Labor must be seriously thinking about parachuting Minns into a safer seat now that he’s leader. But it will be tricky.

    The redistribution plans to abolish a safe Labor seat, so the party already needs to play Musical Chairs with the local MPs….not sure how they’re going to fit Minns into a new seat even if they wanted to.

13. I think he will re-contest Kogarah because it looks bad to be parachuted into a safe seat.

14. What do think the chances are of the loser of a potential preselection battle between Jihad Dib and Tania Mihailuk contesting East Hills?

15. It’s very rare for two MP’s to contest a single seat and if they do, a deal is usually agreed upon before preselection. Personally I feel one of them will contest bankstown and the other will either retire, contest another seat or move to the Legislative Council.

16. Ben is spot on, at this stage not only will Chris Minns lose Kogarah but Jodi Mckay will lose Strathfield and even Michael Daley could lose his seat! That would be a humiliating loss for the past 3 leaders to lose in an election. Unprecedented.

    Why does Labor NSW always choose leaders from marginal seats?

17. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/40695/comment-page-1#comment-753084

    The Branxton polling booth in the by-election covered areas likely to be mostly demographically different to the denser main part of Branxton that is being added in the redistribution.

    The Nats also lost a small amount of ground on primaries, with the swing to the Nats being mainly a result of the ALP primary almost halving and not coming back on preferences. This leaves the Nats more vulnerable to an ALP primary vote and/or preference recovery, particularly in a general election where there will be less political and media air for independents and potentially minor parties. However, I strongly suspect that PHON will run in Upper Hunter at the election, mainly hurting the ALP, like in the by-election.

    Maitland was also contested by the Liberal party but not the National party at the 2019 election, so that is an additional variable in those areas transferred out of Maitland.

18. Before I begin, I will start by saying Daley is unlikely to lose his seat as of now. The swing isn’t that significant and the bus changes may really anger some people. Now to my post.

    There’s a lot of people saying that One Nation significantly hurt the SFF in Upper Hunter and I will debunk this and explain what really happened in the Upper Hunter and the real swings.

    In places such as Denman, the Nationals and SFF polled exceptionally poorly compared to last time. Although some turned to Labor, the main swings were to Kirsty O’Connell and some of the swing was to One Nation. The swing against the SFF was higher than the One Nation vote.

    In most rural agricultural areas such as Quirindi the Nationals’ vote dropped slightly, Labor dropped massively and the SFF’s vote also dropped. The vote that abandoned these parties were split between Kirsty O’Connell and One Nation. As Kirsty stood for agriculture and was against mining, this appealed to the SFF, Labor left and National voters while it is likely the One Nation rhetoric appealed to the Labor right.

    In the mining area of Singleton a massive amount of Labor, National and SFF vote went to One Nation and a smaller amount for Kirsty O’Connell. One Nation had massive appeal to the conservative National and SFF parties while also appealing to the Labor right such as Fitzgibbon type miners.

    However in Muswellbrook it wasn’t a dramatic improvement for Labor. It’s just that most voters stuck with them. It’s just many National voters and SFF voters in Muswellbrook switched to One Nation from last time and then those votes exhausted rather than flowing back to the Nationals or SFF. This meant Labor dramatically improved their 2PP vote.

    The truth is, One Nation and Kirsty O’Connell running significantly hurt Labor and the SFF but also hurt the Nationals. It wasn’t a uniform swing, just different swings in different areas.

    Now to address Tom’s post, it’s very possible that a swing in one area of Branxton may be repeated in another, as that’s what happened in Scone, Singleton and Muswellbrook across all polling booths. Not a massive swing to the Nationals, but Labor and SFF voters switching to One Nation and then letting their votes exhaust. Maitland should be a status quo situation as One Nation did run in 2019 and Labor voters didn’t switch to them. A swing to Labor is entirely possible if National voters switch to One Nation and then let their votes exhaust like what happened in Muswellbrook. However it could stay the status quo or swing to the Nationals. Either way it shouldn’t be big enough to change the result of the entire electorate.

19. Just to add to my previous post, the reason I don’t think Daley will lose Maroubra is because the statewide swing at the moment in polling is 7% to the L/NP and is likely to be less if COVID becomes less relevant. Daley needs an 8.46% against him to lose. Added with the anger against the bus changes this will likely get him over the line.

20. Kogarah had the largest anti-Labor swing in metropolitan Sydney in 2019. How much of this can be attributed to Daley’s racially insensitive comments? I’d say that after we factor this out, Kogarah is a few percentage points safer than it is on paper.

21. Does anyone know which NSW state seats have the highest proportion of retirees as seats such as Nicklin swung to incumbent governments in post-COVID elections?

22. I doubt Labor will hold Kogarah in an environment of Lib+9 if the margin is 0.1-0.3%, even if the swing against Labor was just due to Daley’s comments. Myall Lakes is the seat with the highest proportion of retirees.

23. The marginal/fairly safe non-Coalition seats that I think that have a good chance to fall to the Coalition after the redistribution, in order from most likely to least likely are:
    Kogarah (ALP+0.3%), Leppington (ALP+1.5), Heathcote (ALP+2.1), Coogee (ALP+2.1), Lismore (ALP+1.8), Londonderry (ALP+3.9), Strathfield (ALP+5.3), The Entrance (ALP+5.8), Port Stephens (ALP+5.8), Gosford (ALP+7.1), Murray (SFF+3.5) and Barwon (SFF+6.6). These are the seats that I think may possibly fall to the Coalition ranked from most likely to least likely. Any other non-Coalition seats I don’t think the Coalition will have a good chance of winning.

24. Some people are saying if the current polling numbers are true then NSW will have a similar landslide victory for the Liberal like what Labor achieved in Victoria in 2018 and some others say that Labor is likely to win in 2023. Here’s why that won’t happen:
    Status of seats before the 2018 Victorian Election
    Marginal: 40.9%
    Safe: 20.5%
    Very Safe: 38.6%

    Status of seats before the 2023 New South Wales Election
    Marginal: 18.3%
    Safe: 24.7%
    Very Safe: 57.0%

    57 percent of NSW’s seats are held by above 12%, compared to just 38.6% for Victoria. In NSW, 18.3% of seats are marginal compared to 40.9% before the 2018 Victorian Election. In 2018 the Labor party reached a 2PP of 57.30% and held 62.5% of all seats. If the same were to be repeated in NSW for the Liberals they would hold between 57% of all seats, if you don’t factor in Coalition vs SFF or Greens. Now, 57% of seats sounds impressive but Mike Baird held more seats by just winning 54% of the 2PP vote. If it was repeated for Labor then Labor would hold 51.6% of all seats. Imagine winning the 2PP vote by 7.3% but only winning 51.6% of seats. In fact, the Labor would need a uniform swing of 9.5% and win the 2PP by 57.5% to hold majority government. Labor would likely need 44 seats to form minority government, which can only be achieved with a uniform 8.3% swing and need to win the 2PP vote by 56.3%. Now, if you give the Liberals a uniform swing of 7% and wins the 2PP vote by 59% like current polling is showing, the Liberals would win 59.1% of seats, less than Victoria Labor did when they got 57.3% of the 2PP vote. I’ll make a similar comparison for WA tomorrow.

25. I wouldn’t rule out 60+ seats on that polling actually because 59 is close to 2011 TPP which was around 63? I agree it might narrow but choosing Minns surely isn’t going to help Labor

    I agree seats like Campbelltown (16.3 ALP) won’t fall but do not rule out Seats like the Blue Mountains (13.6 ALP) considering it is far western Sydney and this area is trending to the Liberals. These areas used to be Labor heartland but you really couldn’t call it so anymore. Just look at the 2019 election as an example. Hunter was almost lost

    Mining may not be a big issue in the Blue Mountains but there are more retirees in this area than the Labor seats in inner Sydney and the folks in Western Sydney might be willing to give a thumbs up to Berejiklian considering the NSW government helped prevent COVID from become widespread in those regions

    If the Blue Mountains flips it will be entirely because of Covid but also these areas aren’t as strong for Labor as they used to be. Potential future battleground

    Other possible Labor losses include Granville (8.8 ALP) Prospect (8.8) Rockdale (10.0) and Wyong (12.8)

    Now I agree all of them won’t fall but expect an upset gain of at least 1 of them if things continue the way they are and even after International borders and the country is mostly vaccinated. Almost all state governments will get a boost at the next election after COVID started, Big or small

26. Ben, I don’t know if you could say 2018 in Victoria was a landslide, I respectfully disagree because Labor only won 55 seats. Indeed most of Labor’s vote was wasted in it’s own seats and marginals instead of picking up enough seats to reach the Brackslide of 2002, Labor won almost the same TPP as in 2002 but got less seats, This is why the Coalition has so many marginals in Victoria now.

    A small swing would see Labor win another 10+ seats and I could very well see that happening which would result in the Nationals being larger than the Liberals (So a WA style result couldn’t be ruled out if all goes well for Andrews in the next year)

    In 2006 Labor only won 54% of the TPP but won the exact same number of seats as in 2018.

    Anyways back to NSW, I wouldn’t rule out a landslide for the coalition in NSW, It could be anywhere from between 2015 and 1988, or if it gets bad enough from 1988 to 2011 although I highly doubt it will surpass 2011

    I think allot of the safe seats like Drummoyne and Mulgoa which are traditional marginal seats have reached the cusp of their margins for the Liberal party. they may swing slightly more Liberal but expect them to be under average swings. When Labor wins again they should win them or at LEAST make them extremely marginal. The seats have trended slightly liberal but you have got to remember allot of the traditional marginal seats are still on relatively safe margins for the coalition. Labor still has not fully recovered from 2011 and it looks as if most of the swings will be in Labor held seats at the next election which means a 7% swing could mean a 10% swing in many of Labors seats considering the Coalition seats are unlikely to move much

27. The Vic ALP won 59 seats on 2PP in 2018, only 3 less than 2002, in line with the landslide about a precent of swing short of 2002. The Greens won Brunswick off the ALP and held Melbourne and Prahran, whereas in 2002 the ALP held Melbourne and won Brunswick* and Prahran. The ALP won the Morwell 2PP but sitting ex-Nat Russel Northe won the seat as an independent.

    *Brunswick was recreated in the 2001 redivision, having been abolished in the 1991 redivision, being held by the ALP before and after its absence and the ALP also holding the 3 seats that covered Brunswick during its absence.

28. Winning 57% of the 2PP is a landslide even if it’s not to the extent of previous ones. They won Hawthorne.

29. 62.5% of all seats is definitely a landslide, if not to the same extent than others. You could call it a mini-landslide if you want

30. Although Blue Mountains is in western Sydney, to say it is trending Liberal is misleading. Labor currently holds it by 14.86%.

31. Now the margin came close in 2003 but it was only 14.76%. Blue Mountains, in its 53 year history, has never been safer for Labor than it is today. Even in 2007 when the state average was 4% to the left of where it is now, Blue Mountains was 3.7% to the right. Later I’ll analyse every single seat and compare NSW to WA.

32. Oh sorry for so many messages, but the marginals on Victoria was calculated from the results of the 2014 election.

33. EDIT: Deleted due to lack of concision.

34. Monaro could be in play when Barliaro retires Ben, It was marginal prior to 2019. Although in the current environment it won’t be. The seat isn’t out of reach for Labor as it is Eden-Monaro and it is a very competitive area that was held prior to 2011 for Labor.

35. I made the assessment about Monaro based on the assumption Barilaro is runninf again, although there’s a lot that may change in 21 months. Anyway if Barilaro retires, I personally expect the Nationals to retain it with a reduced majority. However Barilaro seems to be popular in Monaro so I didn’t consider it competitive.

    The trands towards the Liberals in Western Sydney is interesting. In 2007 they held 3 Western Sydney seats, or 12%. Now they hold 12, or 48%. What’ll be interesting to watch is where the swings will be at the next election, whether they will be in strongholds or marginal seats.

36. Now the fatal mistake the Liberals musn’t make is neglect their “safe” electorates just because they’re polling well as that causes the rise of independents and minor parties. A good example is my home electorate of North Shore, where the Liberals were on a 21.2% margin before the 2017 by election but got a massive swing against them. Safe seats should never be taken for granted, ever!

37. • Badgerys Creek: I’m curious to know the reasoning behind the “trending Liberal” claim. Oran Park voted Labor at the last election. Is Oran Park not representative of the demographic one expects to see proliferate in this district?

    • Bathurst: I’m not too familiar with regional NSW. How does one explain its current status as a very safe Nationals seat when it was a very safe Labor seat pre-2011?

    • Epping: I suspect that Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has a significant personal vote in the western portion of the proposed Epping. If this is so, then Epping is less safe than it appears. In an election where Labor performs like it did in 1999 and 2003, Epping on these boundaries is winnable for Labor.

    • Londonderry: I don’t know if I’ll be shocked or amused if Londonderry voters vote out an effective MP in favour of a government who has treated them like second-class citizens.

38. With Bathurst…. In simple terms is approx the 2 major towns Lithgow and Bathurst… In theory labor should get 60% to 66% in Lithgow… And 45 to 55% In Bathurst.. This would cause the seat to be borderline to marginal labor but with the sitting mp on approx 66% 2pp nothing like this is happening. The reasons I can think of are a move away from labor and a personal vote for
    Mr Toole the reverse was the case when labor held

39. Bathurst used to be Labor heartland but based on the Labor party’s appalling performances in regional areas recently (especially in NSW) makes me think they will not win it back in the current political environment. The swing in 2011 was overinflated as the incumbent retired but there is still an issue for Labor here which I feel is about politics becoming more about social/environmental rather than economic issues. I feel that Labor could win this back with a good leader and innovative economic policy. But in the current situation I think Labor will come 3rd here at the next election (behind the SFF and NATS)

40. Oran Park is part of the electotal district of Camden, which also Liberal but is slightly less safer than Oran Park.

41. @Ben, the draft redistribution proposal transfers Oran Park to Badgerys Creek. In the 2019 state election, the polling booth at Oran Park Library recorded a 52.1% Labor TPP vote, and at Oran Park Public a 53.1% Labor vote.

42. A 52% Labor vote in Oran Park won’t change it’s composition as other areas like Mulgoa vote 81% Liberal and areas like Abbottsbury which votes 65% Liberal. Oran Park is to the right of where it voted in 2007 but is somewhat in line with how the state has moved.

43. Sorry it’s taken me until now but I deleted Ben’s comment of yesterday afternoon where he offered commentary on every seat from Albury to Tweed. That comment was over 2200 words long. If you want to do something of that length, write it somewhere else and link to it. My comments policy has a rule about concise comments. I’m not strict about enforcing it when they aren’t brought to my attention but I’ve gotta draw the line somewhere. Ben, if you’d like to retrieve what you wrote, email me.

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