The New South Wales state redistribution took another step forward today, when the draft boundaries were released. The maps and report can be found here.
It will be some time before I finish my own boundaries file, which I will then use to calculate my own margins. I also haven’t seen any other estimates, so for now I will keep this post broad, and readers can discuss what you find in the maps in the comments.
I will return with margin estimates and an interactive map once they are ready.
The biggest news is the abolition of the seat of Lakemba and the creation of a new seat of Leppington in the fast-growing south-western corner of Sydney.
While the name “Lakemba” has been abolished, it looks to me that the seat of Bankstown has actually been divided up between its neighbours, with Lakemba being renamed as Bankstown while maintaining a majority of its existing population.
Seats in central Sydney and northern Sydney have shifted towards the west, until Bankstown is eventually abolished, and the seats of Davidson and Ku-ring-gai were renamed as St Ives and Wahroonga respectively.
The southern corridor of seats continues to shift, with seats like Fairfield, Granville and Auburn changing significantly. Eventually Leppington is created out of parts of Camden, Macquarie Fields, Liverpool and Mulgoa, with Mulgoa taking in rural parts of Camden, and being renamed as Badgerys Creek.
In the north-west, the two seats in the Hills area are redrawn as north-south seats, with Baulkham Hills renamed as Kellyville and Seven Hills renamed as Winston Hills.
The Illawarra electorates Heathcote, Keira and Wollongong all moved south, with Shellharbour losing its northern end to bring those seats up to quota.
Western and southern NSW is mostly left intact with minor changes. It’s interesting to see that no changes have been made to the vast seat of Barwon, which is already 5.4% under quota and is projected to be 7.5% under quota by 2023, seemingly to avoid having to make major changes to surrounding seats.
Major changes were made to Upper Hunter, losing its most rural parts to Dubbo, Bathurst and Tamworth, and gaining parts of the Singleton and Cessnock council areas from the seat of Cessnock.
Changes up the coast were relatively minor.
Fast population growth in Sydney have necessitated a number of seats to be drawn right at the bottom of the permissible range. Heffron, Leppington, Londonderry, Riverstone and Parramatta were drawn at least 8% under quota, with Kellyville not far behind. Most of these seats are projected to still be slightly under quota by 2023, hopefully ensuring they remain close to the average by the 2027 election, but Leppington, Riverstone and Parramatta are all growing so fast that they will already be above average by 2023.
That’s about it for now. What parts of the map have grabbed your attention?
UPDATE: Antony Green and William Bowe have both published their estimates of margins. They agree that Leppington is marginal for Labor (1.5% on Antony’s list, 2.6% on William’s) and they also agree has flipped from a 5% Liberal margin to 1.7-1.8% for Labor. So Labor has swapped one super-safe seat for two marginal seats (ignoring other changes).
I have mixed feelings about some of the re-namings. It’s curious that Mulgoa and Davidson were junked, even though their successor districts contain their namesake localities. On the other hand the new names, Badgery’s Creek and St Ives, represent more prominent locations within the district. However that’s not a policy that’s followed consistently; for instance the suburb of Londonderry is more obscure than St Mary’s. It’s amusing that the district between Parramatta and Blacktown has received its third name change in as many redistributions. Wentworthville -> Toongabbie -> Seven Hills -> Winston Hills.
There’s less disruption in the northern suburbs than might’ve been expected. All seats have been retained by redrawing Epping westwards; which in turn pushes Parramatta southwards.
I’ll be interested to see the new margins for Penrith, Heathcote, and Upper Hunter. Parramatta looks like it could be more competitive; though the areas it gains from Auburn are Liberal voting. The 3000 voters added to East Hills will make the notional margin absolutely line ball. Kogarah will be very marginal, though possibly that’s an artefact of the Daley tape; Labor held this on less friendly boundaries in 2011. The new seat of Leppington is difficult to intuit, though I assume it will be marginal.
Leaving Barwon unchanged is a bad decision. Cootamundra looks a bit skinny too.
Winston Hills despite it’s misnaming looks for marginal than the old seven hills. Oatley is the reverse side of Kogarah… about 5% stronger
Winston Hills is also difficult to intuit. It loses its most marginal areas and is compensated with Labor voting Blacktown/Lalor Park and Liberal voting Glenwood. Perhaps a wash?
Oatley will see a slight reduction in the Liberal margin. I don’t think it will be as much as 5%.
Oatley….. gains Labor areas north of m5 and loses liberal areas blakehurst/ Connells point….. also 2019 result was best liberal vote for a long time
I have a set of estimated margins up:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/11/10/nsw-state-draft-redistribution-published/
Why does Pollbludger say it is Holsworthy and not Heathcote that is now Labor? It also claims Lee Evans is the member for Holsworthy
Heathcote is labor…… not Holsworthy…… on these proposals
It seems that the Panel have adopted many of my suggestions – they used my suggested Liverpool without alteration, and the Winston Hills is very close what I suggested – transfer in Glenwood, straighten out the panhandle into Kings Langley by following Sunnyholt Road, and remove the awkward bulge southwest of the railway line.
My lengthy discussion about the north west of Sydney (and how the existing boundaries are atrocious) seems to have swayed the Panel despite other suggestions not supporting my view. They implemented most of my ideas in some form, including:
• Using Cattai Creek as a boundary, establishing a district (Kellyville) running down the corridor from Rouse Hill to Bella Vista.
• Uniting the old part of the Hills – Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill – with the semirural suburbs.
• Reorienting Epping and Parramatta to an east-west alignment, in particular using James Ruse Drive and Kissing Point Road as their boundary.
• Ensuring North Rocks is united with suburbs to its east, rather than suburbs on the other side of Darling Mills Creek.
So not that I live there anymore, but what’s been made of the Sutherland Shire is almost criminal! After totally screwing with it last time round, rather than making it better, its even worse. The Shire area is split into 4 electorates (was 3) and people who almost live in Kareela, are in an electorate with Bulli – when the panel had more ability to respect Communities of Interest (refer Antony Green) – Heathcote MP will be a thankless job.
The Sutherland shire is a mess. The numbers never seem to quite work there at either a state or federal level. They always end up either dragging in Liverpool or northern Wollongong or crossing the Georges River. it’s ironic when it is one part of Sydney where the community of interest is quite clear.
The seat of Hornsby is a mess too. Cherrybrook seems to be problematic wherever it ends up.
Nitpicky thing: in northern Sydney, there’d be a Wahroonga (state) and Warringah (federal) within a few km of each other. (Does having two suburbs with names that similar ever get confusing?)
The Sutherland shire boundaries are a result of the way the Illawarra/South Coast electorates are constructed. All the region’s seats are drawn along a narrow coastal corridor which really limits any flexibility. This produces results like Nowra (South Coast) separated from North Nowra/Bomaderry (Kiama), and Shellharbour as a seat of two halves connected by a narrow strip through Albion Park. Inevitably you end up with a mixed Illawarra/Sutherland seat, thus Heathcote runs from Kirrawee (not Kareela) to Bulli. It’s not obvious what a superior alternative would be. Also, Sutherland Shire was already split across four seats with Barden Ridge in Holsworthy.
I thought Wahroonga/Warringah was confusing when I first came to Sydney as a kid. But I’m so used to it I don’t think anything of it now. I doubt there’d be any confusion for the electors involved as both are prominent locations in their own right. The upper north shore is distinct from the northern beaches anyway.
In my suggestion I managed to simplify the boundaries of Cronulla, Miranda, and Heathcote. It eliminated all tumour-like protrusions and disconnectedness. The catch – Alfords Point and Illawong were transferred to East Hills. I guess that was too much for the Panel to stomach.
Re Lismore. I think the new boundaries put village of Federal a very Greens area into Lismore, making the seat more marginal ALP/Greens though ALP incumbent Saffin is popular.
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