QLD 2020 – election day open thread

1. Watch Coomera:

   Highest population growth in Australia in Qld.
   Lowest amount of people aged over 65 in Qld.
   Highest amount of people under 14 in Qld.
   Mostly young families
   New state schools built this term.
   Dual-city families split between working in Bris and Gold Coast less-concerned about Gold Coast status quo.
   Electorate in close proximity to Safe ALP southern outskirts of greater Brisbane.
   New dwellings here resemble the new dwellings of Logan and Ipswich.
   Incumbent mp low-profile back-bencher can’t compete for the vote from low-information, recently arrived residents from interstate.
   Undecided will lean towards a preferred-premier/name-recognition vote for high-profile Ana.
   Previous election results out the window – demographics, attitudes and voting intentions have completely changed.
   Labor promised new Coomera hospital – biggest industry on Golf Coast is Health sector.

   ALP Gain

2. Had a squiz at my local polling booth, noticed Clive Palmer’s people are absolutely out in force today, easily outnumbering volunteers from every other party (assuming they’re not ducking around corners and popping on LNP shirts half-way through the day like they were in previous elections). They’ve had zero presence in the electorate before this, not even corflutes as far as I’ve seenl, but they’re flooding the booth today. I’m guessing he’s paying them?

3. My final prediction is one of less seat change than is expected

   Labor to lose Townsville, Mundingburra, Barron River and Aspley, but to gain Pumicestone, LNP to gain Mirani off One Nation, KAP to hold all their seats, Greens to hold Maiwar but not gain anything else

   45 – ALP, 43 – LNP, 5 – Crossbench

4. I’d say so. Not necessarily the worst strategy. If you know who you’re going to vote for then Palmer probably isn’t for you, and likewise if you don’t know who you’re going to vote for, you probably didn’t vote early.

5. Furtive Lawngnome
   Paying election volunteers does not really work. They are in supervised and just sneak off and have a nap.
   It is obvious that COVID 19 has impacted on volunteers behaviour. If two major parties could not man pre polls it is a fair chance that COVID 19 will impact on Who the electorate vote for.

6. Well the Palmer people seem to have f****d off already. Very suspicious.

   LNP and ON shirts are still there however. Could be the same people for all I know, but there were around about the same number before the Clive people left.

7. My Prediction
   ALP-47 (Gain Currumbin. Pumicestone, Lose Townsville, Muddingburra and South Brisbane)
   LNP-39 (Gain Townsville, Mundingburra, Lose Currumbin, Pumicestone)
   GRN-2 (Gain South Brisbane)
   KAP-3
   One Nation-1
   Independent-1

8. 46 ALP 37 LNP 4 KAP 3 GRN 2 IND 1 PHON

   where these seats come from I don’t know but it’s just what I’m vibing

9. OK this seems to be a better place for final projections

   ALP: 47
   Lose to LNP: Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, 45
   win from LNP:: Bonney, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Chatsworth, Coomera, Pumistone 51
   Lose to Katter: Cook, Mundingburra,Thuringowa 48
   Win from PHON: Mirani 49
   Lose to Greens: South Brisbane, Cooper 47

   LNP: 33 – other than those listed above
   net loss to ALP 3 – 36
   Lose to Katter:Burdekin, Burnett 34
   Lose to greens: Mogill 33

   Net Katter 8
   Net Green: 5
   Independent: 1

   Additional changes where it will be very close:Cairns, Glass House, Oodgeroo, Redlands, Whitsunday

   I will probably be way way off but I have not put any money on it

10. Greens winning Moggil and Cooper but not McConnell is quite a hot take.

11. Ok, I predicted on individual seat threads a few days back but I keep changing my mind.

    In my previous prediction I have it as:

    Labor gains of Currumbin, Coomera, Pumicestone, Caloundra, Bundaberg

    LNP gains of Barron River, Townsville, Muningburra, Mirani, Whitsundays, Aspley, Redlands, Maiwar

    Greens Gain – South Brisbane

    Katter Gain – Thuringowa

    Based on that I get 46 ALP 41 LNP 4 KAP 1 GREEN 1 INDY

    That said the only seats I am comfortable about are Barron River, Pumicestone, South Brisbane and LNP gets at least one Townsville. All the other seats mentioned above could go either way

    On top of that the other seats I am watching are: Mansfield, Maiwar, Redlands, Bonney, Theodore, Burleigh, Glasshouse, Keppel, Cairns, Hinchinbrook, Hervey Bay, Cook, Mackay, Burnett.

    It will be a fascinating night, I’m sticking with that original prediction though!

12. The Greens remain incredibly ztupid both in QLD and Federally, The imbecile Greens Senator who gave a black power salute in the Senate chamber has given with that action a free gift to the ‘No” campaign in the planned indigenous referendum.

    Elsewhere, a certain Dr Carr has doubled down on anti-Arab prejudice rather than support a fair and equitable settlement for the Palestinian Arabs.

13. LNP have no chance in Maiwar why would either ALP or GRNS preference them? Unless in the extraordinary unusual scenario the LNP get 50% primary which they won’t . But there are my seat predictions I don’t have particular seats as some could go either way im just going to go by my average seats.

    50 ALP
    36 LNP
    4 KAP
    2 Greens (South Brisbane and Maiwar)
    And Sandy Bolton in Noosa.

14. I’m predicting a Labor minority government. I haven’t had a thorough look at every individual seat, but I believe there will be swings in different regions that will benefit both parties. Gains made by Labor will be offset by LNP and Green gains. I don’t see the LNP gaining enough seats to even be a viable minority government. Most likely outcome is a Labor minority dependent on Green or potentially KAP support. Hopefully i’m not wrong as I’ve bet money on it!

15. I think I have:
    47 LAB
    36 LIB
    6 KAP
    2 GRN
    1 ONP
    1 IND

    I’ve made a couple of odd (and bold) predications in the last minute so I expect this to be significantly off but I decided to post regardless.

16. I like making bold predictions that are either obviously going to be wrong, or will be somewhat prescient.

    Here’s my predictions:

    48 LAB
    35 LIB
    4 KAP
    4 GRN
    1 ONP
    1 IND

    I’ll probably be wrong. But there’s no fun in the safe prediction.

17. Ok final prediction time. QLD Elections are always hard to pick because it’s basically a 4PP system and has many variable regions and regional parties more than other states. I’m going to list the toss-ups that I can’t decide, and then I’ll allocate on leanings to get final numbers:
    TOSS-UPS Barron River, Burdekin, Cairns, Cook, Coomera, Currumbin, Glass House, Keppel, McConnel, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Rockhampton, South Brisbane, Thuringowa, Whitsunday.

    I’ve had 3x Townsville, Whitsunday, Mulgrave, Keppel and Cook as TOSS-UPS the past 3 months in my predictions as it’s just so hard to decide, and I have a slight Townsville bias so hard to be clear in judgement.

    But it’s been all in good fun and great to see everyone put varying predictions and I appreciate every posters feedback in the seat pages, it’s been wonderful to read, so thank you everyone! Almost time to find out. But here’s my 2 cents worth…

    Before Toss-ups: ALP 38, LNP 32, KAP 3, GRN 1, ONP 1, IND 2, TOSS-UP 16
    Forcing myself to go with leans/gut feelings… I get the following:

    ALP – 44
    LNP – 38
    KAP – 6
    GRN – 2
    ONP – 1
    IND – 2

    Seats changing hands:
    LNP>IND
    Oodgeroo

    LNP>ALP
    Coomera, Pumicestone

    ALP>GRN
    South Brisbane

    NQF>KAP
    Whitsunday

    ALP>KAP
    Mundingburra

    LNP> KAP
    Burdekin

    ALP>LNP
    Barron River, Keppel, Thuringowa, Townsville

    (Again Burdekin could go LNP or KAP, Caloundra, Currumbin & Glasshouse could fall ALP, Aspley, Mansfield could fall to LNP, Maryborough to ONP, Lockyer, Macalister to IND, McConnel to GRN… it’s just so open this election, it’s half the fun and half the frustration :P)

    Some of these are so close it’s hard to pick but forced myself to choose for fun 🙂 happy hunting all and enjoy the election night 🙂 It’s been great for the ride and look forward to seeing how the dominoes fall.

18. Daniel often the intent of preferencing is to keep candidates in the count rather than to get them to win.
    However LNP have no chance of being excluded early so I agre
    Paul why would you expect anything other than a black power/ fascist salute from Greens.

19. Maverick, you reckon a crossbench of 14? You might as well go all out and chalk up a second independent (in Oodgeroo).

    My rough guess: ALP 46, LNP 36, KAP 5, Grn 3, ON 1, Ind 2. (Assuming the third Green seat is McConnel.) Either a majority for Labor, or close enough that they won’t have to deal with both Greens and KAP. Maybe even just the independent(s).

    KAP are an OK chance in most of the seats they’re running in, so I’d be surprised if they didn’t pick up at least one – probably Thuringowa or Burdekin. I don’t rate them in Burnett – it’s 1000 km south of their main support base. Cook could be the surprise, if they’ve managed to win over the remote communities. (I tip Labor there, but if they lose it’ll be to KAP.)

    Greens: should hold Maiwar and win South Brisbane, beyond that I’m not sure. McConnel has a sitting Labor MP who doesn’t seem to have done anything to justify losing her seat, Moggill stayed LNP during the Beattie landslides – they might get one or the other. Any of the other target seats (like Cooper), they’re just too far behind. (Someone on Poll Bludger even reckoned Labor internal polling had the Greens winning Barron River! Ahh, nope.)

    One Nation: Mirani, for no other reason than that they hold it. I think Stephen Andrew is the third person ever to hold a seat for a whole term without leaving One Nation.

    Indies: Bolton in Noosa, probably Richardson in Oodgeroo. Beyond that, who knows? Nobody seemed to know Sandy Bolton existed until she won… there could be others.

    ALP/LNP contests: I reckon Labor will hang on in Barron River, partly thanks to a strong Green vote. LNP in Townsville and Mundingburra, but not by much (a 1% swing would do it). Whitsunday = total mess, but my gut says LNP (with Costigan flaming out and the other minor parties spoiling each other’s chances). Labor should get Pumicestone and a couple on the Gold Coast, too.

    I’ll keep a vague eye on Gladstone, to see if the LNP can come second there for the first time since 1989.

20. Very early, but if the current trends continue it could be a Labor landslide with Toowoomba North with Labor ahead right now. Again its early. And double digit swings to the ALP in allot of their seats on the southeast, Currumbin and Everton the ALP are ahead as well.

Comments are closed.