Sky News last night reported a local exit poll in Tasmania which predicted nine seats for the ALP, nine seats for the Liberal Party and four for the Greens, with three undecided. This morning the state of play exactly reflects that poll. The ALP has won nine seats, the Liberals nine, and the Greens four. The seats have split 2-2-1 in Bass and Lyons with undecided seats in Denison, Franklin and Braddon.
Detailed electorate analysis after the fold.
In Bass, the current 2-2-1 split will be maintained. Sitting Labor MP Michelle O’Byrne has been re-elected, and a second Labor MP will be elected, either being Brian Wightman, Scott McLean and Brant Webb. Former federal Liberal MP Michael Ferguson and sitting Liberal state MP Peter Gutwein have been re-elected. Sitting Greens MP Kim Booth will be safely re-elected.
In Braddon the ALP has retained two of their three seats and the Liberal Party has retained their two seats. Sitting Labor MPs Bryan Green and Brenton Best have been re-elected. Liberal deputy leader Jeremy Rockliff has been re-elected, and Liberal candidate Adam Brooks has been elected. Sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley has been pushed into third place amongst Liberal candidates.
The last seat will be a contest between Whiteley and Greens candidate Paul O’Halloran. The Liberal Party has 0.69 quota surplus, the Greens have 0.82, and the ALP have 0.45 surplus. I tend to think that Whiteley’s incumbent status and the conservatism of Labor voters in northwestern Tasmania should see him defeat O’Halloran.
In Denison, Premier David Bartlett has been re-elected, and he will be joined by Labor candidate Scott Bacon. Sitting Labor MPs Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges have been defeated. Liberal candidate Matthew Groom has also been elected, and Greens MP Cassy O’Connor has been re-elected.
The last seat is a contest between a Liberal candidate, Greens candidate Helen Burnet and independent candidate Andrew Wilkie. The Liberal Party has 0.79 quota surplus, the Greens have 0.45 quota surplus and Wilkie has 0.51 quota. While the Liberal Party is leading, I tend to think that whoever is leading out of Burnet and Wilkie will win the seat on the other party’s preferences.
In Franklin the Liberals have gained a second seat, the Greens have retained their single seat and the ALP has retained one of their three seats. Liberal leader Will Hodgman, Greens leader Nick McKim and deputy premier Lara Giddings have all been re-elected. The Liberals have also gained a second seat, which will either go to Jacquie Petrusma or Tony Mulder.
The last seat is a contest between Labor candidate David O’Byrne and the second Greens candidate. Sitting Labor MPs David Hulme and Ross Butler are out of contention. The ALP has 0.84 surplus, the Greens have 0.61, and the Liberals have 0.48. Considering Liberal preferences, and the fact that almost every Greens vote has been locked up with Nick McKim, it is likely the seat will go to O’Byrne.
In Lyons, the ALP has retained two of their three seats, the Liberals have retained their single seat and won a second, and the Greens have retained their seat. Tim Morris will be re-elected for the Greens. For both the ALP and the Liberals there is doubt about who will win their second seat. Sitting MP Michael Polley should win re-election, but the race for the second Labor seat will be a contest between sitting MP David Llewellyn and Rebecca White, both of whom are on approximately 0.6 quotas, with 0.58 lying with the lower-polling candidates, and 0.8 quotas going to Polley. Former Liberal leader Rene Hidding will win re-election, and will be joined by either Mark Shelton or Jane Howlett.
That last seat in Denison will probably decide who forms Government. If the Libs win it they’ll equal Labor in seats and be ahead in the total vote. If Wilkie or Burnet do, Labor would have more seats. I don’t think Burnet can win because Labor surplus and some Green vote is likely to drift to Wilkie and if Wilkie finished behind Burnet enough of his vote would probably drift to the Libs anyway. Groom is probably the best bet, but Wilkie still 2/1 for me.
Instead of going along with the term ‘balance of power’ I wonder if the Greens might be better off adopting the term suggested by Ted Mack and Peter Andren, ‘balance of responsibility’? Does that more accurately communicate the role of cross-benchers in a hung parliament?
http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/HoA2010/Results/Denison/DenisonDist.html
Preference distribution live! And they will go into the night until there is a winner. Burnet looks gone after Lowrie exclusion. Wilkie looking pretty good.
So its starting to look like 10-9-5-1 with Wilkie in and the ALP with 10! Will Bartlett try and govern as a minority?
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