Polls have just opened in the federal seat of Eden-Monaro in south-eastern New South Wales.
I will be back to cover the results tonight, although coverage will be light until after 8pm.
I wrote about the trends in early voting at the beginning of the week.
The final number of postal vote applications was 16,840, up by about 1400 compared to the beginning of the week, and more than twice as many as were submitted in 2019. We don’t know yet how many of those applications will result in postal votes, as voters can still choose to vote another way.
A total of 36,764 pre-poll votes were cast up to Thursday. The AEC website has not published Friday’s figures. 4510 votes were cast on Thursday, and 3887 on Wednesday.
A total of 44,015 pre-poll votes were cast for Eden-Monaro in 2019 (including votes cast at pre-poll centres in other seats). It seems unlikely there would have been quite enough votes cast on Friday to reach that number, but it might come close.
So this confirms a trend of pre-poll largely remaining steady at an already very high plateau, while postal voting increases significantly.
If you’re looking for more information about the by-election you can read my guide or listen to the Tally Room podcast about the by-election.
Looking forward to this evening.
My final prediction is Labor to hold, 1-2% swing towards them.
My prediction. Labor hard: 0.3% swing towards them. Labor will do better than there 2019 election result on the coast due to the fires. Libs/Nats may perform better around Queenbeyan. I think that if there was a general election today, this would be one of the only seats with a swing to labor.
ABC TV News 24 said mid afternoon today that either the Liberal candidate and ALP “member” will be the likely winner. I pointed out to the ABC by phone that the ALP member resigned and the ALP lady is also a candidate not the member.
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